[southmadejd]

Put your picks here fellas....parlays accepted also. But personally my biggest lock of this card is :

BJ Penn at -290

But best value is Ken Flo at -220

There are too many things that could go wrong for Frank Mir against Kongo. If Mir can't get this fight to the ground, I think he is in big trouble. Everyone thinks his striking is good because he fought a sick Nog but Kongo will put that to rest real quick. I may just pick Kongo in a straight bet for a small unit just for the value.

I also have two parlays: 1. Penn, Mir, Florian 2. Penn, Kongo, Florian

Lets hear what the rest of you think.

[squallsquall]

Why do you have one parlay with Mir and one with Kongo, instead of just one with the other two matches only?

[Boddhissatva]

Bj Penn is not a LOCK. I have him winning but I wouldn't be surprised if Sanchez was able to grind out a Decision.

Mir and Kongo...too many variables...no clear cut winner.

Two fights to look at, in terms of value is Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida. Guida is +160 and can very well steal this fight.

On the Prelims, Alan Belcher vs Wilson Gouevia.
If Gouveia is the underdog I'm going to bet heavy on him...he's a tough son of a bit*ch who took the fight the Nate Marquart.

[southmadejd]

Why do you have one parlay with Mir and one with Kongo, instead of just one with the other two matches only?

I was just trying to get better value. I put more on the penn, florian, mir parlay and then put enough to cover both bets on the other where I switch mir with kongo.

And I probably should not have used the word "lock". I just used that to show people the "Most likely to win". I think Penn constantly gets underestimated for some reason and has dominated almost every single opponent he has had at the 155lb. I think Sanchez will try to overwhelm him with his pace but somehow BJ will find a way to slow him down and make him look stupid. I definitely don't think Sanchez can win this fight.

[stefan084]

yeah BJs guard isn't that good--retard

[illmatick]

you mma guys have so much built in anger

[brooks85]

watch this kangaroo clinch up a goose.

[illmatick]

YES kartwheels are the shit

[Boddhissatva]

yeah BJs guard isn't that good--retard

Bj's guard is one of the best in MMA history.

[Boddhissatva]

Diego Sanchez at +240 warrants a closer look...

It's unlikely...but very possible that the Nightmare pulls off the upset.
He certainly has the tools for it.

Sanchez has the cardio, aggression and ground game to hang in there with Bj penn...

but at 155...Bj penn has looked practically invincible.

[The HOFF]

watch this kangaroo clinch up a goose.

Thanks brooks. Totally fking random!

[brooks85]

ya, i thought that video was funny.


Diego definitely has a solid chance to upset bj. Look how kenny clinched with penn looking for a takedown, of course he never got it but he did control penn. There is no doubt a td would be near impossible but the clinch game wins rounds. Diego is stronger than kenny and he could hold penn against the cage for good chunks of a round. Hopefully, diego has been working on his clinch game.

Diego is extremely tough and has taken shots from much stronger opponents at WW and survived. Neither of these guys are going too ko each other. Diego has the power too and if he lands a kick and follows up with gnp, maybe. But, likewise, penn has taken serious strikes in his career but he rarely throws kicks.

On the other hand. I could see penn come out, strike with diego in the first round and just take him down the rest of the rounds. For a wrestler, diego has horrible TD% and TD defense. And, his head movement needs be vastly improved come saturday.


I see the fight going to a decision no matter what. And that is a good thing for diego, he has a favorable style of fighting for scorecards. But, i just cant place a real bet against penn at 155 and now he is focused on his training for the last year. He is going to be better shape than he was against kflo.

[brooks85]

here is bj yesterday. Diego also has started a new strength program. The weigh-ins shall be very interesting.

http://www.bjpenn.com/video/weight-check-164



here is diego
http://www.bjpenn.com/video/ufc-107-...sanchez-vlog-1

check about 3:25 to see his status.

[urge2kill]

rofl at the video

[Pride>UFC]

lol at u idiots who think Diego has a chance...

[squallsquall]

I was just trying to get better value. I put more on the penn, florian, mir parlay and then put enough to cover both bets on the other where I switch mir with kongo.

Instead of betting for example $80 and $50 respectively, you'd be better off betting $30 (the "extra amount") on the first parlay and then the remaining $100 on a parlay without Mir-Kongo. That would be strictly better value than the way you've bet now, since you eliminate part of the juice on the $100 parlay. Just a tip for future betting

[southmadejd]

yeah BJs guard isn't that good--retard

What are you talking about? I Love how guys who know nothing come in here and try and make certain comments that make them look like an ass.

[southmadejd]

lol at u idiots who think Diego has a chance...

Agree with Pride>UFC and that pains me to say considering I am a white boy.

[southmadejd]

Instead of betting for example $80 and $50 respectively, you'd be better off betting $30 (the "extra amount") on the first parlay and then the remaining $100 on a parlay without Mir-Kongo. That would be strictly better value than the way you've bet now, since you eliminate part of the juice on the $100 parlay. Just a tip for future betting

Ahhhhh thank you very much for this tid bit of betting. I will most certainly do that next time.

[Boddhissatva]

lol at u idiots who think Diego has a chance...

Diego does have a "chance" against Bj penn...

similar to how Matt Serra had a "chance" against GSP

There are no absolutes or definites in MMA.

Diego Sanchez has the tools to defeat Bj Penn...I just don't see it happening..

[Bread]

lol at u idiots who think Diego has a chance...

LOL at calling anyone an "idiot" just because they disagree with you on a sports pick

LOVED the kangaroo video. Good shit Brooks.

I'm on BJ tomorrow.

If you disagree, you are an IDIOT!! Idiots.

[shady610]

lol at u idiots who think Diego has a chance...

you probably said that before mir handed nog his arse

[knownone]

I was surprised to see the lines how they are I expected BJ to be -400.

There is no evidence of BJ gasing at lightweight, I always hear that but have never actually seen it when studying fights.
BJ has a massive hand speed advantage is more explosive and will pressure Diego which no one to this point has done.
Diego's striking hasnt looked the same at LW he looks stiff and hasnt proved he can finish fights at 155.
Diego has poor head movement suspect footwork and is subpar on his back.
Diego wins with heart,agression and mental toughness unfortunatley for Diego those happen to be BJs strengths aswell.

I don't see Diego winning this, You don't go into a fight expecting to win on cardio.

BJ 4th round sub.

[knownone]

Closest thing to a lock on this card is Jon Fitch over Mike Pierce.

[southmadejd]

Dude, that Jon Fitch fight was a close......did you bet it? I would have been sweating my ass off. I actually did pretty good on this card. All the favorites won pretty decisively on my bet and I took that one guys advice and just bet Penn and FLorian for a two team parlay. It basically paid out 1 to 1. Did anybody else do okay?

So who the hell fights Penn now?