[Sykes]

[marzwoody]

Just goes to show how unpredictable MMA can be. as i was watching all i was thinking was wow edson barboza is just outclassing cerrone hes just on another level, then out of nowhere jab..takes back and its over. and this is the sport some people bet thousands of dollars on? how laughable, some fights you just cannot bet on

[BettersUnite]

You must know where these fighters are mentally. Cowboy was there to take Edsons best shots, and was looking for the oppurtunity to win, and that's exactly what he did. Knowing where these fighters are mentally sometimes you forget about and you just look at how they fight. Skills are skills, but these skills need to be used by a fighter mentally focused ready to destroy.

[Vaughany]

You must know where these fighters are mentally. Cowboy was there to take Edsons best shots, and was looking for the oppurtunity to win, and that's exactly what he did. Knowing where these fighters are mentally sometimes you forget about and you just look at how they fight. Skills are skills, but these skills need to be used by a fighter mentally focused ready to destroy.

that's the problem, Cerrone is the best example of somebody who is completely unpredictable in that regard

[rosietop]

It has nothing to do with Cerrones mindset. If you look at Barbozas fights this is a guy who has clearly been overrated by the public. He almost got finished by a mid level fighter in Castillo. Had a close fight with another mid level fight in Njokuani, another really close fight with Pearson who is another mid level fighter... And his wins are over bums.. If you ignore the fact that he is Brazilian and has a few flashy kicks he is a bonafide mid level fighter at best.

Cerrone does not watch tape on his opponents anymore so he is mentally strong from now on.. Its like watching how good his opponent is subconsisly scares the shit out of him and makes him hesitate. That split second of hesitation is all it takes to lose a close fight and make you lose your confidence. Cerrone reminds me of people who have had emotionally abusive or neglectful fathers because he can have confidence issues.

In hindsight Cerrone may have been one of the best bets of the year, im just frustrated that I skipped on betting him.

[Vaughany]

K go play dark souls 2 and smoke your weed fatboy, i'm currently out running and replying from my phone when i get a water break

[latarianmilton]

op if you dont like betting and are losing money then why are you still doing it? thats just dumb
btw weed is awesome and dark souls 2 is cool too

[PaperTrail07]

Your an idiot....nobody can see a fumble in football coming either

Just goes to show how unpredictable MMA can be. as i was watching all i was thinking was wow edson barboza is just outclassing cerrone hes just on another level, then out of nowhere jab..takes back and its over. and this is the sport some people bet thousands of dollars on? how laughable, some fights you just cannot bet on

[PaperTrail07]

Been killing the cards as of late....Yeah Nobody could see Hawn was going to Lose LMFAO....get the penetrate outta here

[NunyaBidness]

Another thing, you are looking for fight metrics that MMA judges don't care about. Leg kicks have no value at all. A desperate successful take down after a full round stand up beating at the end of a round, well you can pretty much give the round to that guy. Statistics don't matter in this sport

Lolwut?

You do realize that not every fight goes to the scorecards right?

Tell Rick Hawn that leg kicks have no value.

[Vaughany]

Does he mean fightmetrics dont account for leg kicks? So has no value to them?

Otherwise yee lolwut!

[PaperTrail07]

[PaperTrail07]

[Beelzebubzy]

Lolwut?

You do realize that not every fight goes to the scorecards right?

Tell Rick Hawn that leg kicks have no value.

Cecil peoples agrees with Becel.

aka Becel Peoples

[TheCalculator]

Absolutely, when I first started posting here it was to see if anyone was doing any work into it; I had just started working on modeling it myself, and wasn't getting much of anywhere.

The main problem is going to be that the type of data that needs to be collected isn't being tracked by anyone. You can't just lump in all strikes together the way they do in boxing. Even dividing it by head/body/leg or standing vs ground isn't enough.

Cagerank is a perfect example, they're trying to model based on fightmetric data, and its pretty much worthless.

I started on this path. The WORK is going beyond just "the regular stats" and turning qualitative data (takedown skills, stand up grappling skills into numbers) and then creating formulas that use a waterfall model based on those numbers.

It's also worth noting that "KOs" are the equivalent to "turnovers" in football. They are the most unpredictable element of this sports. The Barboza/Cerrone is a perfect example.

[PaperTrail07]

I mean maybe to you.....after a while when a guy drops the ball 4-5 times....he's known for it......So if a guy is know for having a weak/untested chin and he goes down....not THAT unexpected....

I started on this path. The WORK is going beyond just "the regular stats" and turning qualitative data (takedown skills, stand up grappling skills into numbers) and then creating formulas that use a waterfall model based on those numbers.

It's also worth noting that "KOs" are the equivalent to "turnovers" in football. They are the most unpredictable element of this sports. The Barboza/Cerrone is a perfect example.

[PaperTrail07]

People would have been just as shocked if Barboza knocked out Cerrone too....yet everyone knew the fight was going to be filled with heavy shots/attempts and crazy

[TheCalculator]

People would have been just as shocked if Barboza knocked out Cerrone too....yet everyone knew the fight was going to be filled with heavy shots/attempts and crazy

I'm with you... I did publicly say that the "safest bet" is on the under.

[BettersUnite]

I got Cerrone at +145 right before the fight.
You have to to look at fight par the skills in my eyes. The mental part is so important. Cerrone is one of the best on his best day
The man said he wants to fight 6 times this year and get that title. If anybody was doubting his mental game going into this fight was blind.

[MD]

I got Cerrone at +145 right before the fight.
You have to to look at fight par the skills in my eyes. The mental part is so important. Cerrone is one of the best on his best day
The man said he wants to fight 6 times this year and get that title. If anybody was doubting his mental game going into this fight was blind.

I'd say the same about anyone who wasn't.

[TheCalculator]

I'd say the same about anyone who wasn't.

I'm with MD here. Cerrone is everything but rock solid mentally. "Folded" against Nate Diaz and Dos Anjos.

[Vaughany]

I got Cerrone at +145 right before the fight.
You have to to look at fight par the skills in my eyes. The mental part is so important. Cerrone is one of the best on his best day
The man said he wants to fight 6 times this year and get that title. If anybody was doubting his mental game going into this fight was blind.

Ahh yes the classic awareness after the fight has happened!

he has said he wants to fight all the time every year, he said the same after diaz clowned him for three rounds. Tht wasnt some crazy statement which gave massive insight in to his mental state!

[Wilbo86]

Yeah he remindsme of myself when i used toplay poker, king of the hill after a win and a well self-doubt/pity/hate after loss. Ok maybe thats a little dramatic, but he's one of the least solid fighters around

[BettersUnite]

Ahh yes the classic awareness after the fight has happened!

he has said he wants to fight all the time every year, he said the same after diaz clowned him for three rounds. Tht wasnt some crazy statement which gave massive insight in to his mental state!

Did you hear all the shit that he directed at Nate? He didn't put extra pressure on himself on that fight? Anyways he got beat mentally and decided to try to stand and bang with Nate.

Cerrones been around the block. His last 3 opponents we're suppose too be pick me fights yet he found a way to end the fight very convincingly.
Cerrones been fighting at the highest leve his whole career.

Same can't be said for his last 3 opponents. Cerrone is in his prime right now and there's no doubt he's mentally all there right now giving fighting 100%...


Oh did I mention 2 that I bet on him This whole winning streak???...oh that's right no one cares about that Garbo

[MD]

Did you hear all the shit that he directed at Nate? He didn't put extra pressure on himself on that fight? Anyways he got beat mentally and decided to try to stand and bang with Nate.

Cerrones been around the block. His last 3 opponents we're suppose too be pick me fights yet he found a way to end the fight very convincingly.
Cerrones been fighting at the highest leve his whole career.

Same can't be said for his last 3 opponents. Cerrone is in his prime right now and there's no doubt he's mentally all there right now giving fighting 100%...


Oh did I mention 2 that I bet on him This whole winning streak???...oh that's right no one cares about that Garbo

That is correct.

[BettersUnite]

I'm with MD here. Cerrone is everything but rock solid mentally. "Folded" against Nate Diaz and Dos Anjos.

And you don't think those fights made him stronger mentally?

[MD]

And you don't think those fights made him stronger mentally?

No.

[BettersUnite]

No.

You don't see any indication that he could possibly be the best he's ever been right now?..or still no nd I'm not gna persuade you?

[Becel]

Obviously misunderstood what I was saying. Leg kicks have no meaning when it comes to how a MMA judge sees the fight. Does a hard thudding leg kick mean much to fighter? Of course it does as it affects his ability to attack effectively. The judges could give a shit though.

I mean cmon. I've seen many fights where one fighter is being outclassed in standup only to lose a round because he was gang tackled with 15 seconds left in the round and ended up on his back. Take downs are regarded as standing eight counts in MMA betting. Its a huge metric that anyone should know before betting on this.

[v1y]

I'm up a large amount lifetime, and always will be.

[Tommy Blingshyne]

I love Luca Fury. He claims all this "I have been on a hot streak", "undefeated", "high winning percentage" ,etc shit

then you go look at his bets and its square shit like a heavy heavy favorite who ends up having a really close fight like Minakov, Alex Garcia, Bocek where in hindsight the underdog was the proper bet, or its just a really obvious bet like clay guida over 2.5 lol, nothing "premium" about these bets at all.

you sign up for that shit to get a "premium" bet: clay guida to go over 2.5 @-400 I mean, really? cmon now..
.

he prob just gives out his "safest" plays for his premium service so his clientele doesnt risk alot but still gets a decent return on their investment...what difference does it make if its an "obvious" play or some obscure shit? the point is to make $ over the long run, not who can take the biggest risks

[rosietop]

he prob just gives out his "safest" plays for his premium service so his clientele doesnt risk alot but still gets a decent return on their investment...what difference does it make if its an "obvious" play or some obscure shit? the point is to make $ over the long run, not who can take the biggest risks

yeah yeah Im with you homie. I never said he was a losing long term gambler. I think overall Luca is a good gambler. But he isint some kind of genius. His bets are average. And I think my opinion of him is perfectly valid.

And I agree, It dosent really matter who or what you bet on, all that matters is how much money you make in the long term. I cant fault him for that I have personally been going hard on the favorites lately and its been working out fine for me, I dont hate Luca Fury, In fact he has helped me out a lot, now I only do 2 or 3 man parlays because of him. But yeah I certainly dont think his bets are genius or "premium". They are obvious bets (well at least for me )

I mean you just saw it recently, playing Joey B and Jon Jones who were both huge huge favorites, Jones didint even finish his fight and Joey looked to be in trouble early on. They both deserved to be favorites but not by that much. This is what I mean, his bets aren't... spectacular... you know what I mean?

Or even the event before that, things like betting on Jordan Mein as a huge favorite.. I'm just shaking my head, nothing really "premium" about those bets at all. Please do tell me if I am being unreasonable or come off like a hater here but I think my criticism is valid.

[Tommy Blingshyne]

disagree...i think jones showed last night he should have been a far bigger favorite then the -400 and change he closed around...value galore on bones at that price...didnt have a problem w/ joey b either...think he was the right side as well...jordan mein also won very clearly, abysmal judging made it seem like it was the wrong side but that was a clear cut easy win for mein...perpetuo was not the right side...a split decision was utter retardation...i do get what youre saying tho...sometimes you make a bad bet and win, sometimes you make a good bet and lose...thats part of the game...nobody is immune to that....as far as obvious bets, i have no problem w/ a bones, joey b, rockhold parlay...as obvious a play as it may seem, it made for a fairly easy and stress free payday...cant be mad at that...how many people thought phil davis was an obvious play and got murdered? i dont think the type of person that pays someone else for their picks is necessarily able to recognize those plays as "obvious" to be honest...how many people on the board kept it simple and played only that obvious parlay and caked up big time on the card? and how many lost their ass on phil davis, medeiros and fili?

[Skel]

Yeah, Luca's on a pretty good streak. While that may be a bit of an aberration, he's still nonetheless a good capper in my eyes and the breakdowns on his podcast are solid.

[rosietop]

disagree...i think

Jon should have not been a bigger favorite, keep in mind Glover injured his shoulder in the first round so this would have affected the fight for sure. Jon only deserved to be that much of a favorite if he performed like he did against chael sonnen.

Luke Rockhold was a great bet, yes even at those odds, that is how a huge favorite should win, this is what I am saying.