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http://www.mmafighting.com/2014/4/20...ed-for-ufc-172
A reported injury to Bobby Green has caused quite a shakeup on this Saturday's UFC 172 fight card.
A lightweight fight between Vagner Rocha and Joe Ellenberger is "in the works", according to MMA Fighting's Ariel Helwani.
Ellenberger's original opponent for UFC 172, Yancy Medeiros, is now fighting Jim Miller on the main card to replace Green, according to sources. Various reports have Medeiros vs. Miller as a done deal.
Glover has very good wrestling. Going into the Gustaf fight that is what people said and Gustaf did well there and even took Bones down. Tex has better wrestling and may be stronger than Gustaf.Originally Posted by BIGDAY
Glover is very well-rounded. Very strong. His weakness is his quickness and striking defense.
Like how Page had a distinct striking advantage and enough TDD to keep it there vs. Tex.
If I'm guilty of underestimating Glover, I think you're guilty of overestimating him. I'll be big on Jones, as I 'capped Jones at about -1200 and the line appears to be dropping, but hey, I'll be happy to eat crow if I'm way off.
I don't care for the spot Bones is in. I'm not going to say these things for certain are going to factor. But the guy is matchmaking, asking for blood tests, getting in fights with kids on twitter. To me his head seems out of it. Seems like Gustaf scared him a bit. Match-up wise Bones beats all. But bad spot for him in my opinion. Tex isn't Rashad or Shogun who is going to just sit there and accept losing. He will go for it.
What do you think Bone's game plan will be? Fight from rage or try or ragdoll? As slow or open Tex's guard is he still seems to have good timing. Bones got hit a ton vs. Gustaf.
I'm equally harsh on glover for this one, not sure if I'm -1200 harsh though. lol. Sure he's dangerous, but I give him a punchers chance in the fist round, and maybe the second if he can manage to get into range, but my guess is he gets stuck in no mans land eating kicks and being evaded.
Timing and power is underrated. Just look at Hendo. Hendo with his skillset, size, and age shouldn't have been beating the guys he has found a way to beat. But he knows how to time a fastball.
I agree 100% that Teixeira will go for it. He wants the win, the only guy with the passion that Glover has is Gus. I in no way believe that Rashad, Rampage, Vitor, Chael, or Shogun had that desire. Maybe Machida, but even then, I think Glover wants it more.
I see Bones keeping it standing and blasting Glover on the feet. He did get hit many, many times against Gustafsson, but Gus is an incredibly quick and rangy striker with a world-class boxing game, much better than Glover's. I was hoping to get Jones KO at +280ish, but it seems that every fight he has, the KO prop is near-even or favoured. Not Jones KO -170 against Gus was a Godsend, I pounded that. Gus's chin is nonsensically good.
Obviously Bones pounds guys out. But has he ever dropped anyone? Ever? Bonnar with a spinning elbow?
I could see Tex gassing in the late 3rd and on but I see Bones not really presenting any fear in Tex early. I see Bones trying to play the pic apart nd wait game. Accumulate a bunch of "stuff" to get up on the card and wait it out hoping Tex gets way too careless or begins to gas.
I'm prepared for some surprises from Glover. I expect his cardio to look far better than we've seen it, and I'm interested in seeing him lock up with Jones. I actually think he has a decent shot at getting a takedown with his obscene old man strength, but I doubt he'll have much success from that point on if he does manage to get one, especially since he'll likely be shooting from the outside.
Has Tex ever been taken down in UFC?
dang, Tex has had an easy road to the title.
No, but he's only stuffed Rampage, and then one attempt each from Bader and Kingsbury, to my knowledge. My notes say Rampage attempted three takedowns, FM says four.
not really comparable. Rampage has shot knees.
I think this mostly pays out with JJ throwing body kicks and head kicks and those nasty kicks to the thigh that Condit throws then Tex gets close and thrown.
I am also on Jones here because I like the chalk.
A lot of these fights are not fresh in my head but,
Shogun: Bones took him down, battered on the feet. Shogun gassed and was dwarfed.
Rampage: stuffed some takedowns, got kicked in the knee a lot. Started getting taken down, sub'd.
Machida: Not much happened in the first. Machida was hit by something good a standing elbow? Dazed. Then choked out. Was dwarfed.
Rashad: Sat on the outside as a midget of a man and accepted being picked apart to a dec loss.
Belfort: a 185lber, got picked apart from length, got taken down and gassed out due to Bones' sheer size and youth. Sub'd when he broke. Said to have had a broken hand anyway.
Sonnen: 185lber. Joke of a fight. Taken down.
Gustaf: Close good fight. Pretty equal standing and in grappling. Bones probably received more damage as Gustaf hit much harder.
Bones to me has won standing battles on length vs midgets. Some midgets who weren't even there to win. His bread nd butter was and still is his wrestling/sheer size to dominate you with elbows and grappling. Maybe h makes Tex look like Shogun or Rashad, but I don't see it. People want to compare Tex to Page, but Tex is more dynamic than Page. Has more tools in other areas than punching. Has more desire. Is less broken than Page was. Maybe Bones makes Tex look like a midget with no will to win. I just don't see that happening,
We can hang on to the fact that Tex was hit once by Fabio and a couple times by Bader I guess. But my prediction is Bones does not present much of any finishing threat until Tex starts to fade or kicks start to accumulate.
or is taken down and GNP.
I am wondering how Tex is off his back. He doesnt seem like the guy that throws up triangles and armbars.
He's a great grappler. The point that Rubber made about Jones' bread and butter could also be made about Glover. He was a pure jiu jitsu guy when he started, then went to Hackleman for striking training (for some reason). He was also on the Brazilian national wrestling team, if I'm not mistaken.
I don't have many notes on his grappling from bottom, but they seem to emphatically indicate that he loves the deep half position and favours strongman techniques over more technical sweeps and subs.
I just think Glover will be as good Gustaf in the TDD/Clinch/Grappling exchanges. I think in the first few rounds Bones' won't see a ton of success with his wrestling.
Off his back I have little clue. I bet he is at least pretty good at defending/getting up. He probably is more top game oriented with subs.
Maybe Tex doesn't have the gas and will be stopped before a dec unlike Rashad.
I have no clue how this should be capped. But I think we all sort of agree that Tex has more chance of pulling out a win than anyone else has outside of Gustaf I guess. I guess people thought Machida had a real good shot. But Page, Sonnen, Vitor, Rashad all had little ways of winning.
Cormier. Also, I would 'cap Cain at about -400 against Jones. Almost unwinnable for him, I only 'cap Cain that low because of how freakishly good Jones is and his game-planning potential. Realistically, a worse stylistic matchup couldn't exist for him. Doesn't have the power to stop Cain, and will be outpaced horribly. Would look like a more brutal version of Kennedy vs Bisping, in which Bisping's lengthy striking couldn't affect Kennedy at all (although Cain is obviously much more aggressive than Kennedy).
Well yea, I'm just talking fights so far. I would/will jump all over Cain and the odds will be good should it ever happen.
But many of those Bones' fights were vs. names rather than guys who had a style to pull a win off. The only guys who had a better shot at stuffing takedowns was Rashad and Gustaf. 1 is a midget wrestler who had no chance standing. The other gave Bones his most difficult fight by a mile. Tex to me at least fits somewhere in between there. With the power and BJJ to scare Jones should the right situations arise.
Cain -275 is where the line was, if you missed that. I think it may have opened lower but money came in on Cain.
One of my issues with Tex is that he's very unathletic - freakishly strong with good timing, but his speed and movement are terrible, and his punch form isn't particularly good either, I think. I don't rate him very highly as a striker.
Dana on Jones not being anywhere near a 5-1 favorite. Im sure he is trying to sell a good matchup but he's right. Vegas has this wrong... not that Jones wont most likely make quick work of him.
Indeed.,if i was Jackson id be saying plant him on his back and elbow the fuuck out of him brandon vera style! I think glover will be a turtle on his back. Only threat he'd offer would be guillotine but with Jones' greco-roman style this eliminates tht threat
Glover is a beast, hits like a truck, huge winning streak. people throwing jones into a parlay like hes a lock are fools. doesn't mean i think glover will win, just that betting on the fight should be avoided. i do think glover has more of a chance then other opponents though. i'm def rooting for him.
Your an idiot. if you held the pads for him you would cry like a little girl. know your place boy.
Last edited by marzwoody; 04-25-14 at 04:55 PM.
I think Glover is being really over rated here. I rate him to have a punchers chance and that's about it. Glover is very slow and was very lucky Bader got over aggressive didn't knock him into next week. I think the opening line at -600 was fair (I would have it at -700 or -800ish). The UFC has been hyping Glover as the second coming, which is great for me as I see -475 now. At 34, Glover is old and slow while Bones is still a year or 2 away from his prime. I see Jon picking him apart a la rampage for a round or 2 then getting some sort of a sub. The under 3.5 looks sweet as I see Jon looking to make a statement after the Gus fight and if Glover has a chance its those heavy hands.
So, they do have a common denominator in Quinton. Critically watch both fights and I think you will see why Jon is the heavy favorite here.
Jon has trouble against guys his height and stamina (Gus and Bonnar gave him a good fight), that's his weakness.
incredibly awful mma gamblers in this thread... jones inside distance-150 ... thanks
So your only play is a huge fav and the champ and we're all awful?noobs. gotta love em.
His play is -150 dude.So your only play is a huge fav and the champ and we're all awful?
Hey pal when this comes up a loser I want u to wrap those fish lips of yours around my pole like the little queer u are. Focking phaget prancing around the forums in high heels red lipstick and a blonde wig. Come at me bruh would starch u. Little pussy.
I prefer Jones -5.5 at -285. Safer bet.
No need to whiteknight that little phaget gaydog MD. He's obviously a focking tough guy.
Glover has a punchers chance.
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