1. 03-23-14 06:58 PM #1
    MD
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    Shogun -160

    #dropitlikeit'shot

    EDIT: Changed to -153 as I was posting this. Shogun -153 6u.

    Shogun -160 6u. Line is moving quickly, though, people may be expecting to see this streak of underdog wins continue.
    Last edited by MD; 03-23-14 at 07:03 PM.
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  2. 03-23-14 07:02 PM #2
    MD
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    -148 now.
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  3. 03-23-14 07:03 PM #3
    Beelzebubzy
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    2u good spot
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  4. 03-23-14 07:44 PM #4
    TankHankerous
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    -140 now
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  5. 03-23-14 08:06 PM #5
    Thor4140
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    Fight Handicap Money Line Total Rounds More
    Sun 3/23 2301 Dan Henderson +122 Over 2.5 -183
    06:45 PM 2302 Mauricio Rua -135 Under 2.5 +155
    Sun 3/23 2303 C.B. Dollaway +335 Over 1.5 -189
    06:15 PM 2304 Cezar Ferreira -387 Under 1.5 +160
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  6. 03-23-14 08:11 PM #6
    NunyaBidness
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    This is without a doubt the craziest line movement I've ever seen on a UFC card. Anyone got any theories?
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  7. 03-23-14 08:13 PM #7
    PunisherIND
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    cant make any heads or tails of it. dont see any kind of pattern.
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  8. 03-23-14 08:16 PM #8
    MD
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    This is without a doubt the craziest line movement I've ever seen on a UFC card. Anyone got any theories?
    Gambler's fallacy, IMO.
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  9. 03-23-14 08:19 PM #9
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    Gambler's fallacy, IMO.
    Gambler's fallacy applies every card. And it works both sides, there's something more.
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  10. 03-23-14 08:23 PM #10
    MD
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Gambler's fallacy applies every card. And it works both sides, there's something more.
    Super gambler's fallacy here, though. Hendo may close as a favourite simply because so many dogs have been crushing.

    Brazil cards, man. F-cking Brazil cards. I've been saying this for so long.
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  11. 03-23-14 08:24 PM #11
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    Super gambler's fallacy here, though. Hendo may close as a favourite simply because so many dogs have been crushing.
    Right, but that doesn't make sense for the line movement in the Dolloway and Maldo fight.
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  12. 03-23-14 08:27 PM #12
    MD
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Right, but that doesn't make sense for the line movement in the Dolloway and Maldo fight.
    It's always possible that it's just a coincidence. Or a case of books manipulating the lines to bait the public. The odds of one line moving wildly close to fight time are pretty decent, the odds of it happening for so many lines are very, very low, but probably the most likely cause here, I think.
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  13. 03-23-14 08:29 PM #13
    MD
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    Got Shogun in R1 here, too. Thinking this doesn't go long.
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  14. 03-23-14 08:34 PM #14
    Dwil125
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    tailing. Much better odds now.
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  15. 03-23-14 08:37 PM #15
    MD
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    Luca is claiming that a syndicate is moving the lines, and that he's 37-2 against them (which, unless I'm retarded, can't be quantified unless they're some sort of publicly bragging syndicate).
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  16. 03-23-14 08:56 PM #16
    MD
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    Not sure what to say about that.

    Pretty positive I was on the right side. That's about as variance as variance gets.

    Sorry to those who tailed - this is happening to me a lot in my thread plays recently.
    Points Awarded:

    Dwil125 gave MD 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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  17. 03-23-14 09:00 PM #17
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    Luca is claiming that a syndicate is moving the lines, and that he's 37-2 against them (which, unless I'm retarded, can't be quantified unless they're some sort of publicly bragging syndicate).
    Jesus, penetrating gangster in his own mind.
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  18. 03-23-14 09:27 PM #18
    Ron_Paul_2012
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    Honest to goodness I yelled out did you see Shogun nod to Hendo 10 seconds before he was knocked out. It's pointless to debate right now. Just have a look after you get to watch the fight again. Either 10 or 15 seconds before the KO Shogun nodded to Henderson. My brother is freaked out right now & so am I. It could just be a coincidence. I'm stunned & not really sure what to think at this point. I'm sure there are others that noticed the nod as well.
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  19. 03-23-14 09:32 PM #19
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ron_Paul_2012 View Post
    Honest to goodness I yelled out did you see Shogun nod to Hendo 10 seconds before he was knocked out. It's pointless to debate right now. Just have a look after you get to watch the fight again. Either 10 or 15 seconds before the KO Shogun nodded to Henderson. My brother is freaked out right now & so am I. It could just be a coincidence. I'm stunned & not really sure what to think at this point. I'm sure there are others that noticed the nod as well.
    I couldn't hear you over the sound of me laughing at this:

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron_Paul_2012 View Post
    I have a 2 unit play on Siler straight @ +150. Lose
    I believe there is value in Parke @ -200 or better. Push
    2 units on Parke vs Santos Over 2.5 @ -200. Win
    10 units on Brandao straight @ -320. Push
    33 units Markes straight @ -590. Lose
    3.75 units Ferriera vs Dollaway Over 1.5 @ -185. Lose
    7.3 units Taisamov straight @ -265. Lose
    10.3 units Ferriera straight @ -210. Lose
    Other 1 & 2 unit plays as well. Mostly Overs. Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose
    -55.3 units at least. Namaste, M0therf0cker.
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  20. 03-23-14 09:56 PM #20
    Sykes
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    Comon Ron nothing wrong with that KO it was savage. Just watched it again, there was a nod, more like a touch gloves one tho. Shoguns fault could of finished twice.
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  21. 03-23-14 10:00 PM #21
    Ron_Paul_2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sykes View Post
    Comon Ron nothing wrong with that KO it was savage. Just watched it again, there was a nod, more like a touch gloves one tho. Shoguns fault could of finished twice.
    I hope so. If I found out that Shogun threw the fight I would probably vomit. With all the behind the scenes BS in Boxing I want at least MMA to be legit.
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  22. 03-23-14 10:02 PM #22
    Kermit
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    Shogun looked like he had several chances to finish Hendo early in the fight.
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  23. 03-23-14 10:05 PM #23
    MD
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ron_Paul_2012 View Post
    I hope so. If I found out that Shogun threw the fight I would probably vomit. With all the behind the scenes BS in Boxing I want at least MMA to be legit.
    You shit talk everyone, all day. You tell Nunya that you live a stress-free life because only losing bets is stressful. You act high and mighty while betting incredible amounts of chalk. You lose more than half of your supposed bankroll in one night. Man up and admit that you were being a c-nt - you look ridiculous right now.
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  24. 03-23-14 10:18 PM #24
    Ron_Paul_2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    You shit talk everyone, all day. You tell Nunya that you live a stress-free life because only losing bets is stressful. You act high and mighty while betting incredible amounts of chalk. You lose more than half of your supposed bankroll in one night. Man up and admit that you were being a c-nt - you look ridiculous right now.
    Why are you so angry bruhv? I lost over half my bankroll & I'm perfectly fine now. I just gave a savage primal scream till my breath ran out! Now that I got all that negative energy out I feel fine. I know what mistakes were made & I will do better next time. Tonight was a very unusual night. You're wrapped way too tight MD. All that negative psychological energy will manifest itself in a very concrete way unless you get your "false ego" under control.
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  25. 03-23-14 11:39 PM #25
    marzwoody
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    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    You shit talk everyone, all day. You tell Nunya that you live a stress-free life because only losing bets is stressful. You act high and mighty while betting incredible amounts of chalk. You lose more than half of your supposed bankroll in one night. Man up and admit that you were being a c-nt - you look ridiculous right now.
    I do and have done the same as him. you have to have some swagger in your life. if your not confident in your bets then what the f-ck are you gambling for? you cant live your life scared of ridicule MD. you seem to have this attitude towards me and others that being confident in ones bets is "shit talking" and this seems to annoy you, which is ridiculous, and a broken way of thinking IMO.
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  26. 03-24-14 03:16 PM #26
    Thor4140
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ron_Paul_2012 View Post
    Honest to goodness I yelled out did you see Shogun nod to Hendo 10 seconds before he was knocked out. It's pointless to debate right now. Just have a look after you get to watch the fight again. Either 10 or 15 seconds before the KO Shogun nodded to Henderson. My brother is freaked out right now & so am I. It could just be a coincidence. I'm stunned & not really sure what to think at this point. I'm sure there are others that noticed the nod as well.
    I thought i saw this also plus the note he handed Hendo right after the first round bell on when he wanted Hendo to smash his teeth down his throat. Good golly sweet molly
    Last edited by Thor4140; 03-24-14 at 03:21 PM.
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  27. 03-24-14 03:20 PM #27
    Thor4140
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    Anyone else notice Shogun after the knock out try to get up and it look like he just collapse backwards? Kudos to Fox on cutting the camera away. They wouldn't show it on any highlights either. The way he collapsed was an awful site.
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  28. 03-24-14 03:30 PM #28
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thor4140 View Post
    I thought i saw this also plus the note he handed Hendo right after the first round bell on when he wanted Hendo to smash his teeth down his throat. Good golly sweet molly
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  29. 03-24-14 03:44 PM #29
    FightFightFight
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ron_Paul_2012 View Post
    Why are you so angry bruhv? I lost over half my bankroll & I'm perfectly fine now. I just gave a savage primal scream till my breath ran out! Now that I got all that negative energy out I feel fine. I know what mistakes were made & I will do better next time. Tonight was a very unusual night. You're wrapped way too tight MD. All that negative psychological energy will manifest itself in a very concrete way unless you get your "false ego" under control.
    Yeah. Whats losing $55 anyhow? Just relax MD.
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  30. 03-24-14 05:05 PM #30
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thor4140 View Post
    I thought i saw this also plus the note he handed Hendo right after the first round bell on when he wanted Hendo to smash his teeth down his throat. Good golly sweet molly

    Lol
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  31. 03-24-14 05:07 PM #31
    TheCalculator
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    Quote Originally Posted by FightFightFight View Post
    Yeah. Whats losing $55 anyhow? Just relax MD.
    Tremendous truth in this post. When you're bankroll is $100 -- it's hard to be stressed.
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  32. 03-24-14 07:16 PM #32
    Ron_Paul_2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thor4140 View Post
    I thought i saw this also plus the note he handed Hendo right after the first round bell on when he wanted Hendo to smash his teeth down his throat. Good golly sweet molly
    You got that tin foil hat on a bit too tight there Homza. Didn't see any note bruhv. You might want to take another look. The nod on the other hand was easy to see & as I said I called it 10 seconds before the KO.
    Last edited by Ron_Paul_2012; 03-24-14 at 07:24 PM.
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  33. 03-24-14 07:23 PM #33
    Ron_Paul_2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by marzwoody View Post
    I do and have done the same as him. you have to have some swagger in your life. if your not confident in your bets then what the f-ck are you gambling for? you cant live your life scared of ridicule MD. you seem to have this attitude towards me and others that being confident in ones bets is "shit talking" and this seems to annoy you, which is ridiculous, and a broken way of thinking IMO.
    A lot of the posters on SBR don't make any money from gambling on MMA & they never will. When V said something like he has never made a withdrawal from 5dimes I just about fell out of my chair with laughter. However, his picks are always reliable fades. MD has very low self esteem & anger issues. He lashes out on the regular. When someone lashes out it's perceived as a cry for help. Unfortunately guys like MD have to help themselves. No one can do it for them.




    The NAKED gambler!
    Last edited by Ron_Paul_2012; 03-24-14 at 07:55 PM.
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  34. 03-24-14 07:28 PM #34
    cheeese
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ron_Paul_2012 View Post
    You got that tin foil hat on a bit too tight there Homza. Didn't see any note bruhv. You might want to take another look. The nod on the other hand was easy to see & as I said I called it 10 seconds before the KO.
    If this is true I have lost a lot of respect for Hendo. Shogun is willing to take a dive and Hendo goes overboard disintegrating his nose and then hitting him 3-5 times in the back of the head. Who would ever want to take a dive for Hendo now?
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  35. 03-24-14 08:08 PM #35
    Thor4140
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    Quote Originally Posted by cheeese View Post
    If this is true I have lost a lot of respect for Hendo. Shogun is willing to take a dive and Hendo goes overboard disintegrating his nose and then hitting him 3-5 times in the back of the head. Who would ever want to take a dive for Hendo now?
    U see in the WWE guys get hurt all the time from a botched move. In MMA when a guy takes a dive he loses five teeth and has a concussion with most likely a broken nose. Hendo is like one of those guys in the WWE where wrestlers don't want to work with him afraid of getting injured. The nerve of Hendo almost breaking Shoguns jaw and then Shogun going thru the act faking like he was hurt but Hendo wanted to make it look even more real by smashing the back of his head about five times.
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