[terpkeg]

Quick introduction: Just found this forum and I like the whole point/contest thing, so I think this will be my new home to satisfy the gambling fix.

MMA is my best sport capping wise. For the past three years, I have shown considerable return, however, past 6 months I have basically been slightly down. I attribute this simply to not putting the time in that I used to. I have been focusing my energy in other places, both gambling related and life, and just dont watch as many fights as I used to.

I plan on changing this, as I am taking the remainder of the year off from all other forms of gambling (poker and sports) besides betting MMA.

Hopefully, I new start here will help my transition. OK, enough blabber..... was hoping to generate some knowledgable conversation regarding the Strikefore card.....


Brett Rogers+415+385
Fedor Emelianenko-525
Jake Shields-290
Jason Miller+230
Antonio Silva+135
Fabricio Werdum-165
Gegard Mousasi-485
Rameau Sokoudjou+350
Typically I like to re-watch a fighters past two years of fights before making play and I have not done so here. However, I have seen all of the above fighters fights fomr the past few years at the time they took place. Hopefully will get a chance to do so this week.

[shady610]

Fedor should win but i would love to see Rogers take it.
I hope Mayhem destroys sheilds. I hate shields and it would make my day to see him get sumbitted

Werdum winds and so does mousasi

overall, it should be a nice night of free fights..

welcome to the board

[Bread]

Welcome, Terp.

Accumulate some points to get in our contests, and we also have an official SBR sponsored one for all of the UFC ppv's.

I haven't gotten into serious capping mode for Strikeforce yet...will get motivated this week

[Boddhissatva]

wow...all my picks are heavy favorites...no real value...too much risk...

I might make a small wager on Antonio Silva.

[teaserpleaser]

Originally Posted by shady610

Fedor should win but i would love to see Rogers take it.
I hope Mayhem destroys sheilds. I hate shields and it would make my day to see him get sumbitted

Werdum winds and so does mousasi

overall, it should be a nice night of free fights..

welcome to the board

challenge me or lets have crazy lou or bread hold the points i'll take A silva you can have Werdum also i'll take shields you can have mayhem let me know these offers are open to anybody.

[terpkeg]

My intitial thoughts:

Fedor/Rogers

Fedor - Unfortunately had not yet found MMA during the Pride heyday, and missed many of Fedor's great moments. But, I have watched many of his fights and obviously respect him greatly, but do not see any value here. Not sure if has has lost his edge in the last year. He is 33, and has been in many battles, this must take a toll physically. He recently lost a Sambo match for first time in years, if not ever. Plus, is the media push taking away from training? Not syre, probably not, but at -500 and up, there are better opurtunities imo.

Rogers - Do not recall seeing any grappling out of him in his EXC fights. Not sure what his credintials are, need to look into that, but without any, cannot touch him.

Shields/Miller

Shields - Stand-up always seems like a liability, but that didnt stop him from submitting Lawlor and Daley recently, both fights I lost $$ on.

Miller - Good grappler, but not great imo. Could not keep the fight standing against Jacare. If he does not keep this one up, where he has a moderate advantage, I dont see him winning. Line a little high imo, need to do some more work here.

Werdum/Silva

Werdum - besides coming in out of shape and getting blasted by Junior Dos Santos, Werdum has looked very impressive in his post Pride career imo. I dont think the Arlovski fight was as one sided as people made it seem and he looked great against Vera and Gonzaga. He is elite grappler and can finish/dominate when in top control.

Silva - Seems to have cardio issue and his grappling just seems decent imo. He is a massive man and trains with a great camp, but i feel like he is at disadvantage everywhere in this fight as his standup is not explosive enough to hurt Werdum before he closes the distance.

Want to do more work here, need to watch Silva's last two fights.

Mousasi/Soko
- I think this is a complete mismatch and would feel much more comfortable on Mousasi than I would on Fedor. Need to look into Mousasi injury that kept him out of DREAM, but Soko's ground game is non-existant, he has had mental breakdowns in cage/ring. Only hope is flash ko imo and Mousasi is like a ghost, he does not get hit.

[brooks85]

Welcome

Rogers has no real "credentials", just has great hands and fought less than stellar comp. Tuesday night there is a been the scenes thing on fedor/rogers so we can get some more info. But, basically rogers has no wrestling/grappling experience and he is going against a guy who has been practicing sambo since he was a little kid.

Hard to tell what gameplan rogers will come out. He always comes out fast, which imo is a bad move against fedor. If rogers comes out comitting on too many combos, fedor is going to duck a punch and get takedown real fast and then its over. I would say rogers needs too slow the fight down with the jab, the reach advantage is pretty big.

[southmadejd]

Rogers has already said he is headhunting and trying to end the fight within the first minute. Which means Fedor should have a takedown within the 1st minute. The only way to get value out of this card is to run two separate 3 fight parlays. I say Fedor, Mousasi, and A. Silva/Werdum. The last fight is the only one you should switch. Fedor and Mousasi win. I personally think A. Silva wins, his size and reach advantage gives everybody problems, I don't care how big Werdum is.

[Boddhissatva]

LIke I mentioned earlier...the only fight of value I see is Antonio Silva...

he just might pull off the upset...especially if Werdum comes in ridiculously overweight.

[terpkeg]

Im close to putting a play in on Werdum. Silva's standup is mediocre at best and I beleive Werdum has a good chin. I had trouble finding many of Werdum's old fights as they are all owed by Zuffa and I dont have UFC on demand anymore, but if I recall correctly, he has always shown and ability to recover from knock downs. The Dos Santos uppercut would have ko'd an OX. Silva's standup is mediocre at best. He seems to drop his nahds alot, his footwork is not great and he seems on the slow side. Werdum has trained alot of standup the past several years and has improved.

And as for the grappling, Werdum is the better grappler imo.

The ways I see Silva winning this fight are 1) he keeps distance and uses reach to outpoint Werdum in dull stand up fight. When Werdum closes distance, he cannot get the trip takedown.

2) Silva winds up in top control and I have under estimated his ground game and he keeps Werdum on back using size to smother and limit Werdums offensive bjj.

But more likely, I think Werdum holds his owns on feet and as fight goes on Silva's cardio goes. By third, Werdum is taking fight to ground with trips and throws and domintates Silva from the tiop, ending fight in tko or sub.

I think Werdum should be in the -225 - -275 range.

Any opinions here?

[brooks85]

I have parlays riding on silva but werdum should win imo. Silvas size is just an easy target for werdum to get him down and submit him.