[Trixie]

Hey guys, I'll try to keep a long story short here. After making a living sports gambling, I quit about 4 months ago at the request of my girlfriend and my parents. I emptied all of my accounts and left one bet in the bank, which I had made the night that the Cotto/Pacquiao fight @ 145 had been announced.

I'm in to this fight, on Cotto, for 5 UNITS. I've seen people talk about 35 UNIT plays and shit like that, but for me 5 UNITS is as confident a bet as I have. That's context.

Anyway, it seems like either after 24/7 aired on Saturday, or Frankie Figureoa released his press statement, the price for Cotto moved from 7/4 to 15/8. Does anyone have any idea what it was in particular that caused this movement? Because I am seriously considering putting more money on Cotto but I'm deliberating over it because I'm pretty confident that if anything that number will move further once the Filipinos his Vegas en masse.

[illmatick]

yes cotto wins

[Czu81]

Just stick to the 5 units IMO, Cotto has a great chance but his defence questionable. Pacman timing and his speed/power could be a winning factor.

[Boddhissatva]

Cotto gets his a$$ kicked....

he cuts too easily and he gets hit often...

A slower, more predictable Clottey was able to tag him numerous times.

Pacquiao under the tutelage of Freddie Roach will expose all of Cotto's weaknesses.

8 round TKO for Pacman.

[shantystar]

good job.

[Pabinator]

I hope your right and Cotto Loses, I wanna see him fight Money MW

[BeDtimeHobby]

I have parlay ending tby the PAC winning,cashing out 3k, plus im betting on the TKO,Ko props by PAC POUNDING everything on this fight. He's been making money for me for all the years his been fighting.

[Boddhissatva]

Bedtime-

Same here...

I'm betting big on Pacman via TKO/KO.

The man is too quick for Cotto and he's going to cut him up more that the Clottey did with his head.

Cotto's fight game went straight to $hit after his cut due to the head butt in the fight with Clottey.

I anticipate a similar result when pacman cuts him early...

[InThisMoment]

I still think the Margarito fight took a lot out of Cotto both physically and mentally.

[Boddhissatva]

Originally Posted by InThisMoment

I still think the Margarito fight took a lot out of Cotto both physically and mentally.

Same here...

Cotto looked beaten, and drained physically and mentally after that fight...

[marabdl86]

LISTEN TO ME DO NOT BET ON COTTO!

I am a die hard boxing fan and watch nothing but fights in my free time. Cotto has not looked good in training and is going to have to get down to 145. I'm not even going to mention Cotto's lack of footspeed

Cotto will not be able to catch Pacman to hurt him. Pacman will get in and out and bring the lumber on Cotto when he sees him breaking down. Cotto has to be set to throw his punches and will be caught off balance all night with Pacman answering with a barrage of punches of his own. I see Pacman Koing him around round 8 or 9

There's a reason why your family told you to stop gambling. You can count your 5 units as a loss.

[RobbReport]

harsh. but i agree, Cotto doesn't have what it takes to last with a fast warrior like Pacman.

[illmatick]

Originally Posted by marabdl86

LISTEN TO ME DO NOT BET ON COTTO!

I am a die hard boxing fan and watch nothing but fights in my free time. Cotto has not looked good in training and is going to have to get down to 145. I'm not even going to mention Cotto's lack of footspeed

Cotto will not be able to catch Pacman to hurt him. Pacman will get in and out and bring the lumber on Cotto when he sees him breaking down. Cotto has to be set to throw his punches and will be caught off balance all night with Pacman answering with a barrage of punches of his own. I see Pacman Koing him around round 8 or 9



There's a reason why your family told you to stop gambling. You can count your 5 units as a loss.

, I just doubled up on cotto after reading this, foot speed wasn't a problem when he put an ass whoopin on shane mosley, Pacman can only k.o bums and he is only slightly faster than mosley. Clottey would give any fighter problems, my boxing play of the year is on clottey over quintana

I guess this idiot never watched an over rated marquez tool pacman

[Boddhissatva]

Illmatick-

Whoa....JMM is not overrated...he's a world class fighter who just happened to fight an even greater fighter in Mayweather.

And Pacman has fought numerous world class competition, "not bums."

He's been through two wars with JMM,

He's fought erik Morales 3 times, losing the first, but winning the next two in convincing fashion...

he's defeated Barrera twice

Diaz,
DLH
Hatton,
and the list goes on and on...

Pacman is one of the best in the world...and he'll prove it next month. This will be my marquee bet....
Pacman by TKO/KO.

[Boddhissatva]

And let's not exaggerate...

Cotto didn't put an a$$ whooping on Sugar Shane...

that fight was incredibly close...

[illmatick]

ass whoopin may be a bit much but my point was that there wont be much disparity in handspeed between cotto and pacman, and yeah marquez is overrated, guy was in a close fight with baby diaz who just got tooled by pauli malanagi, when has pacman ever fought someone with the strength and boxing ability of cotto, thats right never, he is a good fighter and I am a fan but he has only beat a bunch of tiny mexicans, hatton is a fkn bum and cotto would have done the same, I dont just type random shit, I have a clue when it comes to boxing

[Boddhissatva]

Originally Posted by illmatick

ass whoopin may be a bit much but my point was there wont be much disparity in handspeed between cotto and pacman, and yeah marquez is overrated, guy was in a close fight with baby diaz who just got tooled by pauli malanagi, when has pacman ever fought someone with the strength of cotto, thats right never, he is a good fighter and I am a fan but he has only beat a bunch of tiny mexicans, hatton is a fkn bum and cotto would have done the same, I dont just type random shit, I have a clue when it comes to boxing

Same here...I have a "clue" when it comes to wagering on boxing.

The reason why I'm betting heavy on Pacman is because Cotto cuts way too easily (more so than Jerry Quarry)...and he had trouble with Joshua Clottey, a better than average fighter at Best.

Cotto is warrior and a great fighter...he brings that style that boxing fans love...he can box as well as he brawls and he's never afraid to mix it up.

I just see Pacman picking him apart with blinding speed.

If Cotto is able to neutralize Pacman via body shots...then maybe we'll see a different outcome...
but as of right now...I'm on the Pacman band wagon.

[illmatick]

fair enough, we will find who is right in a few weeks

how about a side wager, loser has to tranfer their daily points for an entire year

[Boddhissatva]

Originally Posted by illmatick

fair enough, we will find who is right in a few weeks

how about a side wager, loser has to tranfer their daily points for an entire year

How about a more friendly wager...a one time wager of 200 points...

may the better fighter win...

And BOL to you...

I'm a fan of both fighters...

but due to my Asian blood I have to side with Pacman.

[moses millsap]

hope it happens, hate manny

[BeDtimeHobby]

I remember this book GOT ****ING pounded during Hattons nightmare KO. http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/271904

[RobbReport]

Originally Posted by Boddhissatva

How about a more friendly wager...a one time wager of 200 points...

may the better fighter win...

And BOL to you...

I'm a fan of both fighters...

but due to my Asian blood I have to side with Pacman.

don't use asian blood as a reason to pick a fighter....i mean, I wouldn't use that to side with garbage Andy Wang .....at the end of the day it's about character and skill.



ive met a lot of asian pussies, as well as white, black, hispanic etc etc.....off topic but the people that always claim asian pride and mexican pride are always the same assholes fighting and killing their own race.


yeah i'm happy when an asian dude can do well but i'm not gonna dickride just because he's asian. I rather be a fan of the better all around person.

[Czu81]

Paqman will win if he keep the fight in the middle of the ring!!!!!!!

[Czu81]

JMM is a world class fighter!!! Actually he is underrated. IMO!!!

[Boddhissatva]

Originally Posted by RobbReport

don't use asian blood as a reason to pick a fighter....i mean, I wouldn't use that to side with garbage Andy Wang .....at the end of the day it's about character and skill.



ive met a lot of asian pussies, as well as white, black, hispanic etc etc.....off topic but the people that always claim asian pride and mexican pride are always the same assholes fighting and killing their own race.


yeah i'm happy when an asian dude can do well but i'm not gonna dickride just because he's asian. I rather be a fan of the better all around person.

Oh God...please don't mention Andy Wang...

I still have nightmares about how much he set back Asian Fighters in MMA.

[Boddhissatva]

Originally Posted by moses millsap

hope it happens, hate manny

How can you hate Manny?

The man is modest, he gives back to the community and he always makes for an exciting fight.

[Pabinator]

In the past i have wanted Manny to lose, but I want him to win this fight so bad, & win BIG so when he fights Mayweather the line is close so I can bet all I have on Money MW

[marabdl86]

Illmatick you know shit about boxing and I advise you keep your stupid mouth shut before you cause people to loose their hard earned cash because of your ignorance. Marquez was fighting at 130 when he fought PACMAN. When he fought Mayweather he was 145+ pounds. That was 15+ pounds he was carrying and it showed when his handspeed and footspeed were basically non existent against Maywetaher. Shane Mosley stood in front of Cotto all day with the occasional back peddling. Pacman is goign to be all over that ring moving non stop, working his way in and out with a barrage of punches here and there. When he sees Cotto brekaing down he's going to bring the lumber on him. Cotto's going to be off balance all day and will get caught with punches on the side of the head because of it. I see a uppercut knocking Cotto out.

I'm willing to wager all my points for yours? for a whole year what do you say?

Again you know squat shit about boxing. Cotto's handspeed equal to Pacman's?? you have got to be kidding me. COtto has underrated handspeed but he isn't the same as pacmans. Cotto's going to fall and fall hard on his ass.

[illmatick]

trust me I know more about boxing than you think, just check my boxing thread you idiot, I have been posting my picks for every event you idiot, hey idiot where did I say cottos handspeed was equal to pacman, hey idiot I didn't , I would take that bet but you just joined this forum so fuk off idiot, hey idiot I bet you wont be posting the day after the fight

[Boddhissatva]

Jesus Guys...

let's all take a breath...

We're all here to make money...or to have intelligent discussion regarding the better pick...

illmatick and Mara...let's all relax.

[marabdl86]

You call me the idiot and then pussy out on a bet. stupid looser

[Pabinator]

I can see this fight going 2 ways (obviously) but I can see pacman coming out faster and landing punch's and hurting cotto and just out styling Cotto.

But I can also see Cotto weathering the storm and actually hitting Manny with a real Welterweight punch and see Pacman stop trying to come in and basically staying away for 12 rounds.

I have no doubt Manny is faster & more skilled but he still hasnt really been tested by a bigger guy which concerns me.

I really want him to win, but wanting and what my money goes on are 2 different things. I am still on the fence here a little more than 2 weeks away.

Also Cotto has taken hits from bigger guys and was able to hang, will Manny really be able to hurt him??

[Boddhissatva]

Pacman will absolutely be able to hurt Cotto...and cut him...

he will hit him fast ...and often...

The only way I see Cotto winning this is by cutting off the ring and banging away at pacman's body...

[Trixie]

ILLMATIK - much respect.

Ok, since no one can answer my question regarding the line movement for me... Here is my rationale.

1. Size

Cotto is the bigger man. We all know and knew this. Don't be fooled by the weigh-in when they will both be around 145. Cotto will balloon back up to around 156-158 on fight night, whereas Pac will be happy to make 150. Pac has been sparring with undefeated prospect Shawn Porter and taking his hits, apparently, with gusto. And that dude is a middleweight. But don't be fooled either, into thinking that means he can hit as hard as Cotto does. Cotto has a seriously legit jab that he both leads and steps in with, and his left hook to the body is arguably the best in the sport. Manny being a southpaw only grants him more opportunities to get hit by this.

Remember also that Cotto took 11 rounds of concrete to the face against Margarito. It is only logical to think that he can take 12 rounds of (a much smaller) Manny.

2. Hubris

This could all be smoke and mirrors, but I subscribe to Occam's Razor when it comes to wagering and it seems to me like there is crazy trouble in the Pacquiao camp. Typhoons and obsessive fans stopping Manny from jogging, fist fights between his advisor Michael Koncz and his fitness guy Alex Ariza, rifts with Freddie Roach, can't all be exaggeration. Just doesn't seem like Manny is taking the threat that Cotto poses seriously, even though Miguel is at this stage in his career, the most legit threat he has faced.

3. Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton

I'm not buying into this. Freddie Roach has admitted on several occasions that he told Manny to jump on Oscar because he noticed the IV marks on his arms that indicated he was severely drained on the night of the fight. Add to this that ODH was far past his prime and the victory is less impressive than the public believes.

Ricky Hatton was overrated for his entire career. But he was good. And just like Roy Jones Jr. he was never the same after being knocked out. Floyd Mayweather did a number on Hatton, destroyed his aura of invincibility and he was never the even the [merely] good fighter that he was before. He then made the stupid choice of hiring Floyd Sr. who tried to recreate him as a new fighter 2 months before his clash with Manny, without dealing with the obvious susceptibility to the lead hook.

These two resounding victories - while very, very impressive - have led the public to give way, way too much credit to Manny. Don't get me wrong, he is an all-time great now and a pound for pound monster. But due to those two wins I do not believe he deserves to be a sub -200 favorite over an elite and legit welterweight like Miguel Cotto.

------------------------------------

Everyone seems to down on Cotto because he a) lost to Margarito, b) didn't knock Josh Clottey out. Well, we know there is a high chance that Margo beat Cotto with loaded gloves in their bout, and as for the Clottey performance. I have serious difficulty with anyone who didn't consider that impressive. In fact, if anything, how he won the Clottey fight is essentially the reason people wagering on Pac should be afraid.

Cotto, unlike Pacquiao, has the ability to switch strategies, mid-fight. Pacquiao has one style. He is AWESOME at it. But if it doesn't work, then what? He decimated Marquez in their first fight by going forward, bobbing, and throwing lots and lots of punches. But when it didn't work he didn't know what to do and as we all know, after knocking Marquez down 3 times AND breaking his nose in the first round, he went on to only DRAW that fight. Similarly, while Cotto can, Pacquiao cannot fight off of the back foot. So what happens when Cotto weathers the early Pac storm and begins to move in on him? Cotto was able to score points and win rounds while Margarito basically walked through his shots because he can fight going backwards. Pacquiao can in no way do this.

Cotto has flat out brilliant ring IQ. Cotto knocked Clottey down in the first round, don't forget. But after that he began to run and it was much less impressive. Why? Because it was pretty much the only way he could win the fight. That's right he had a HUGE gash above his right eye. He had to make sure he took as little punishment there as possible, not for fear of being knocked out, but for fear of medics ending the fight prematurely. That's why he appeared gassed in the later rounds.

The fights that Cotto had with Shane Mosely and Zab Judah show that if nothing else he is a fighter who knows how to nullify speed. Judah, in particular, was extremely fast, and once Cotto adjusted to it, he crushed him. Shane too. And being fast is Manny's prime quality. No one is suggesting that Cotto is as fast as Manny. That is outrageous. But what Cotto does have is an ability to negate the speed advantage, not entirely, but enough to stem the tide and make it at the very least manageable.

Ok, I've gotta run now, but I hope what I wrote helps. BOL, guys, but I really don't think Pacquiao is winning this fight at all. My only concern is that Manny jumps on Cotto early and decks him within 2 rounds, which lets be honest, is possible since Cotto is a notoriously slow starter.

[Trixie]

Also I don't think anyone hates Pacquiao save for hard line racists. I think people hate Freddie Roach and they hate Pacquiao fans who think that the sun shines out of his ass and that he would match up well against and be too strong for Voltron.

And if you want to talk about "Mosely stood in front of Cotto all day". What exactly do you think ODH did to Pac? bob and weave?