Not my best work but better than nothing...
When I first saw the UFC 104 card I thought it was awful besides the main event and looked just as bad for betting. Though the card still looks terrible in terms of fights, the betting aspect was better than I thought. I have one max play on this card and have added three more plays after further analysis. I’ve upped my max play back up to it’s usual 5 units becauseI think I’ve snapped out of my funk. Hopefully I didn’t just jinx myself. All plays were made at
5Dimes.
5* Yushin Okami -255 vs. Chael Sonnen
This was originally my only play when I first saw this card and I’m pissed I didn’t lock in the bet when the odds were a little better. In any case, this is a max play for me and a pretty easy one to call. For that I’m going to keep this short. Yushin Okami is an elite 185 fighter and in my opinion is number 2 or 3 in the weight class. He should have gotten a title shot already but his style plus injuries have derailed those plans. Okami possesses a great top game, excellent wrestling, and is solid in everything else. The same can be said about Sonnen but he’s worse than Okami in every aspect. This is why I give Sonnen little to no chance in this fight. He doesn’t have anything in his repertoire that’s better than Okami’s. I see Okami taking this by UD.
3* Antoni Hardonk -140 vs. Pat Barry
I actually would make this a two unit play but by accident, I bet three so I’m going to keep what I have. On the feet, I give the advantage to Barry but not an overwhelming one. I feel that Hardonk can more than hold his own and the size differential will help lessen the gap. In everything else, the edge is to Hardonk. Along with being bigger, he’s the better grappler and wrestler. He’s not amazing but Barry is awful on the ground so there is a wide differential in skill. Even if Barry catches Hardonk with something big, he’s never been one punched KO’d and is pretty quick to recover. I don’t see this fight going to a decision and won’t be surprised to see Barry winning in the beginning. But I eventually see Hardonk initializing the clinch and getting Barry down. Once on the mat, this will lead to a quick submission for Hardonk.
2* Joe Stevenson -230 vs. Spencer Fisher
Joe “Daddy” Stevenson has loss his elite status at 155 but is slowly starting to work his way back up. He showed the first real improvement to his game in his last fight against Nate Diaz. Joe Daddy started training with Greg Jackson and it improved his takedowns and IQ. Before that, he was the same fighter in every fight. This is the reason for his drop in status. Joe Daddy didn’t evolve while everyone else around him did and that helped him pick up three losses in four fights. Spencer Fisher is similar to Joe Daddy in that he’s been the same fighter for years but unfortunately for him, he hasn’t evolved. He’s striking is still great but his ground game is still average. Whether this fight took place two years ago or tomorrow night, the result remains the same. As long as Joe Daddy follows the game plan, he’ll win a competitive but dominant UD.
1.5* Anthony Johnson -330 vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
I’m considering upgrading this pick to 2.5 units but haven’t decided if I’m happy or upset that Johnson didn’t even come close to making weight. He weighed in SIX pounds overweight but the fight is going to continue. What worries me most is Johnson’s gas tank. If he doesn’t finish this fight in the first round, will the added weight be an advantage or detrimental to his stamina? He could of pulled a PBF and just not cared about making weight so he would be in the best shape. Or he could of tried but just isn’t in the shape he needs to be to make weight so his cardio is going to be awful. My initial reaction was to bet more on Johnson because he’s going to be vastly larger than Yoshida come fight night. It’s going to look like a big middleweight fighting a welterweight. This size difference is important because I feel it will help Johnson keep this fight standing. The longer this fight goes the more worried I’ll be but I still like Johnson to win it via TKO in round 1.
For my non-betting plays, I like:
Lyoto Machida -375 vs. Maurcio “Shogun” Rua
Almost thought about making an underdog play on Rua but I just don’t see Machida losing ever
Cain Velasquez -310 vs. Ben Rothwell
Velasquez vastly superior wrestling will more than make up for his weak chin.
UFC 104 picks
illmatick gave TheGovernor11 6 SBR Point(s) for this post.
