http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Arti...-top-bout.aspx
UFC 104 is upon us, and I’ve got my work cut out for me if I want to continue the amazing beating that I have been putting on the books’ MMA offerings. There are a couple of really nice dogs that I just can’t turn my back on. This isn’t easy; I just make it look that way, folks.
Lyoto Machida -410
Mauricio Rua +330
I would swear to God that I was about to watch a Bruce Lee movie if you told me that I was going to witness “Shogun vs. The Dragon.” But no, it’s just an amazing battle of 205’s in a featured five round match-up. That’s all.
I’ll be honest, I was having a bit of trouble capping this one. My brain was racked, and I was forced to incorporate some unique methods to determine the winner of this fight. After weeks of studying, I took into account every single dynamic, skill and weakness of both fighters, and brought in two actors to mimic the path that this bout is most likely to take on. Leaving no detail unnoticed, I was even sure to make sure that my MMA Guinea Pigs were of Brazilian descent, to reflect what we could see on Saturday night to a tee. The results of this experiment were astonishing, and I am here to share them with you. Machida (15-0-0) is represented by the actor in black, while Rua (18-3-0) is represented in red.
It doesn’t get any clearer than that, does it? You can see Machida using his unorthodox style to avoid Rua’s attacks, which will frustrate Rua as it has many others before him. Machida will perform a little ground and pound on Rua’s face, and eventually extract a tap out via arm bar. I am 100% convinced that this extensive study will yield those exact results. Machida remains unbeaten.
Cain Velasquez -380
Ben Rothwell +270
I like two big upsets on the main card, starting with Rothwell (30-6-0). If I can hit at least one upset I will be up. And set. But not upset. Did that make sense?
I know that Velasquez (6-0-0) is a bad man. I realize that this could end badly for ya boy Bread, but at these odds, I think that Rothwell is absolutely worth a shot. Velasquez didn’t wow me by any means in his last fight against Cheick Kongo. At 6’1” 240 lbs, he is an imposing figure. What’s scary is that he will look small compared to Rothwell.
Big Ben Rothwell towers at 6’4” 265 lbs. 21 of his 30 victories have resulted from early stoppage beatings. I’m willing to play +270 that he can do some damage via fists and pull the sweet upset.
Gleison Tibau -130
Josh Neer +110
Calm down Josh Neer
Josh Neer (25-8-1) is nowhere as good as he thinks he is, but he’s still better than Tibau (29-6-0). It’s Tibau to get crazy up in here, and my payday is Neer! (Thank you, thank you. I worked on that for all of five seconds.)
Tibau boasts victories over a slew of ho-hum type talent, and loses to guys who can fight like Nick Diaz, Tyson Griffin and Joe Stevenson. He has already said that he plans on being honored with the Submission of the Night award. The problem with that is that Neer can, and has beaten good wrestlers like Mac Danzig and Stevenson.
I’m no fan of Neer, but I am a fan of Neer in this fight. I will also be throwing him in a parlay. Another play for this fight that catches my eye is for it to go the full three rounds (-180).
Anthony Johnson -330
Yoshiyuki Yoshida +270
Anthony Johnson (7-2-0) is younger, quicker, stronger and hits harder than Yoshida (11-3-0). Yoshida is the only guy I’ve seen to get knocked out twice in one second (see Josh Koscheck highlight reel). Johnson should beat this Asian dog like a naughty Akita, right? Perhaps, but once again I’m taking a gamble on the upset here.
Now I know what you’re thinking. “But Bread! You have such a great record fading Asian fighters in the UFC!” You are correct, but I have this nagging feeling that Yoshida can possibly endure an initial beating, and use his powers of sneakiness to slide Johnson into a fight-ending choke out. Perhaps Johnson’s recent injuries, weight-cutting and arrest have taken a toll on him. That’s the game plan, at least.
Yes, I’m betting on this guy
UFC 104 - Keep on movin' don't stop NOOOO!!
spurginobili gave Bread 3 SBR Point(s) for this post.
my write-ups too??? 
...sorry not this time and only because I really need my picks to hit. 
