[brooks85]

What jitz tho really? JDS hasnt hit a sub since he has been in the ufc and really the only real sub he hit was a guillotine, nothing off his back. Lesnar is no wizard but he has drilled enough guardwork to know how to get out of anything dangerous, that you would expect to be thrown at you in mma, and its more his power that helps his defense. If he is on top of jds or anyone else, they are going to have a hard time working wrist control. I would say best case scenario, which could definitely be enough to change the fight, would be jds's bjj threatens lesnar enough to force him to stand up.

I think brocks best gameplan for this match would be to be very patient and get JDS commiting on his combos he loves to throw. Lesnar has a noticeably longer reach and, if he is willing to accept he has no business exchanging with jds, he just needs to pump his jab and keep his feet moving. JDS has fought no one with lesnar's skillset, he definitely has fought better fighters but he has not dealt with someone who weighs 260 and can change levels for a td about as fast a GSP.

Ideally GSP is who I would want lesnar mimicking, just dont throw as many jabs. Lesnar just needs to keep all the distance he can with his jab, which is a weapon he didnt even try to use against cain. JDS will have to commit to closing the distance on lesnar and that would leave him open for lesnars bread n butter. JDS throws a lot of hooks and puts a lot of power behind them which would expose him to a td. Nelson had little trouble getting close to JDS but he couldnt get the td, if brock gets in the same spot jds is going down without a doubt imo.


The sooner Lesnar gets the td the better but I dont think he needs to rush anything. I think he needs to force his opponents to react to him. Brock made his career of his doubleleg, it is about unstoppable especially if gets his opponents swinging first. But at the end of the day JDS is going to land at least one punch so brock has to be able to take it.






This is JDS first and only actual sub.

[kiefynugs]

i agree with your assessment of jds in that he won't be able to get a sub from bottom easily at all, and I agree that Lesnar will be able to get JDS to the ground probably without too much effort if he gets a good body lock or gets a good look on a double leg.

As far as Lesnar creating space with his jab though? He flinches on punches that aren't anywhere near hitting, and ducks his head and puts his eyes to the floor when he backs up. Good footwork and a long jab are not going to be enough to stave off JDS' offensive game. Also, if Lesnar does fail to secure a takedown from body lock, he's going to have hell to pay escaping the clinch.

I like your assessment of Lesnar's ability to win this, and I think it will be a good fight. My money is definitely on the JDS KO/TKO because lesnar hasn't come near far enough with his striking to compete, and JDS' brown belt should be enough to keep him from getting subbed first round if it comes to that. Then again, look what happened to Mir lol.

Definitely not an easy call though.

[brooks85]

Just a shame we gotta wait 5+ months. I think +130 will be the best the line gets so if I think brocks hasnt changed by fight time I should be able to buy back.


adding

brown -320 to win 100
brenneman/edwards 250 to win 250
hominick/mitrione 250 to win 260




Going to start betting moneylines more, with the merger between ufc and wec the number of events from last year to this year have been cut in half, 60 to 30, so I have to start making more money per card. Nothing I really like on this card for MLs tho but the next few months are looking good.

[urge2kill]

I'm on all the same guys. Let's kill it tonight

[jacktheknife]

brown -320 to win 100
brenneman/edwards 250 to win 250
hominick/mitrione 250 to win 260

Yeah, I know Brown's a good shot but damn he burned me against Nunes. I may never love again.

[brooks85]

That last fight was a battle for both guys. I dont think yahya could replicate Nunes tho, Nunes is a lot tougher and actually has striking skills. Hell, nunes actually has a set of mma skils, yahya is passing by on pulling guard, brown better not **** me!!

I'm on all the same guys. Let's kill it tonight

Im might add mitrione to a ml play depending how basketball treats me today.

[Eccocide]

Just a shame we gotta wait 5+ months. I think +130 will be the best the line gets so if I think brocks hasnt changed by fight time I should be able to buy back.


adding

brown -320 to win 100
brenneman/edwards 250 to win 250
hominick/mitrione 250 to win 260




Going to start betting moneylines more, with the merger between ufc and wec the number of events from last year to this year have been cut in half, 60 to 30, so I have to start making more money per card. Nothing I really like on this card for MLs tho but the next few months are looking good.

I have the same Brenneman/Edwards parlay . GL tonight.

[brooks85]

good deal im glad it worked out for us, looked like edwards was about to screw things up for us at one point.


I need to stop betting on guys who are on their way out, first vera and tonight was brown.. +190 on the night

[brooks85]

adding

diaz -315 to win 100

diaz/souza 300 to win 250


mma ML 91-63

mma parlay 82-69

[urge2kill]

I've got the same parlay. Love being on the same sides as you.

[brooks85]

I think it is a good one, Im liking both guys a lot. I plan on adding diaz inside the distance and souza su just waiting on some movement.

[brooks85]

adding

silva by ko +133 risking 100

[brooks85]

walker -280 to win 100

[JohnGalt2341]

This is completely off topic but I don't know where else to post this. I was watching some random MMA event today on who knows what channel and Gilbert Yvel was the damn Ref! Does anyone else find this a little disturbing or at the very least kind of ironic? Maybe it was part of his community service for all I know.

[brooks85]

he reffed a fight that I know of a long time ago, the video used to be on youtube but is not anymore. Did the event you watch look like it was many years ago?

[brooks85]

adding

gracie -135 to win 200

[brooks85]

4-0 on the bets +650 for the night, looking forward to big a February starting next weekend.

[Vaughany]

Gd shit Brooks

[lasker]

great picks brooks

[brooks85]

thank ya gentlemen, the gods were shining on me yesterday. Those two title fights were close. Lawler had souza hurt there in the first, probably would have finished the job if he made souza stand up.

And i dont know what diaz was doing taking all those kicks, if cyborg could have kept his pace up deep into the fight diaz could have been in serious trouble. That first round was close and I figured santos was going to lock up the second with that td.

[Eccocide]

nice brooks

[phillybadboy]

congrats on being top sportsbook winner

[brooks85]

thank ya sir


adding

ellenberger -280 to win 100

[sideloaded]

Brooks way to hit it, If anyone from IWS is reading this, kiss me and brooks ASS!!

[brooks85]

haha i forgot about that place. I was going to keep posting there after my ban but slipped my mind.

[brooks85]

mendes -255 to win 250

[Vaughany]

mendes -255 to win 250

I expected it to come out at -300 so value in that IMO Im gonna have to take Mendes by decision prop on paddypower but will probly have a pityful maximum bet.

[brooks85]

ya that is about what I expected for the line, -300 so I was just going to play it for 100 but -255 was nice. I would love to get some mendes by decision bets but I doubt Ill get any chance at my books because it is an undercard fight.

[Jordan23]

Good job. You're on a roll lately!

[brooks85]

thank ya, hopefully the superbowl goes as planned, I got some big parlays riding on it.

adding

Jones - 280 to win 100

jones/ellenberger -125 to win 250

[brooks85]

5-0 on the posted plays +833, my phone was on fire tonight.


I got some jackpot parlays open for the superbowl, a few at the sbr book that payout huge amounts and a few 5 to win 1k at 5dimes. Not going to count them towards anything but since it is the superbowl tomorrow and they have ridiculous first td props with +money odds I had to bite. I need either Ward, Miller or Driver to score the first TD along with Fedor winning by KO(silva wins in rd 1 other leg) for a nice payoff, feeling good about it.

[Eccocide]

GJ bud. Hope you hit one of those parlays!

[Vaughany]

Yeah nice one Brooks

[brooks85]

thank ya gentlemen, good work on hitting that jones sub vaughany. I knew jones was going to dominate him but I didnt even think about taking the sub prop especially at that outrageous number because of his ko finishes.

adding

kampmann -140 to win 250

MMA ML 97-63
MMA parlay 84-69




couple more for tonight ha

A. brown scores first td/fedor by ko 10 to win 1000
Jones scores first td/fedor by ko/sergei by ko 10 to win 1000

[brooks85]

adding

jones -160 to win 100

not sure where the line is going to go, a lot of rua backers but I assume jones will get hit first.