[THE_LOCKSMITH]

I know its a little early but thie Gonzaga Carwin fight caught my eye. Carwin isn't as skilled as a fighter as Gonzaga but he's a big tough guy who throws heavy punches, no to mention he's undefeated at 10-0 (vs weaker competition). I think Carwin is a good underdog play here at +155, because Gonzaga has shown in the past that when he's hit he seems to crumble (ex. Werdum and Couture) and i see Carwin as a big tough guy who can rock him. So i think the +155 is good here cause it might go down closer to fight time.

Keith Jardine +240
Quinton Jackson -300

Gabriel Gonzaga -185
Shane Carwin +155

Mark Munoz +160
Matt Hamill -195

[TheGovernor11]

Going the opposite way of you on this pick; I max bet Gonzaga at -160 on Bodog. I think this is a poor match-up for Carwin as he's a wrestler he likes to pound guys out but will be at a disadvantage on the ground. Even on the feet I give Gonzaga the upper hand.

Look at Gonzaga's two fights after his losses to Couture and Werdum. These fights are more important as they were more recent and against competition closer to Carwin's level. I feel that the UFC is just trying to build Gonzaga back up to elite status (as their HW division is quite thin) and this is an easy fight to do so.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

No doubt the UFC is trying to build Gonzaga, if he gets past Carwin i say he's get the winner of Lesnar/Mir 2 for the belt. Maybe i should lay off for better odds, there may be more people like yourself betting on gonzaga and i could get better odds on Carwin closer to fight time. I think Carwin is much better than Gonzagas last two opponents Justin McCully and Josh Hendricks, and has the ability to push him

[innovator]

i think gonzang is gonna take it to the ground and keep it where he has the advantage...if he goes in fearless like when he fought crocop he might put himself in way of getting knocked out...gonzanga has the advantage but carwin can just as easily pull off a win.


i don't know if i'll play this one yet.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Keith Jardine +255
Quinton Jackson -310

Gabriel Gonzaga -170
Shane Carwin +150

Mark Munoz +140
Matt Hamill -160

Brandon Vera -580
Michael Patt +440

Gray Maynard -160
Jim Miller +140

Jason Brilz +120
Tim Boetsch -150

Jason Day +150
Kendall Grove -170

Matt Brown +115
Pete Sell -135

Aron Riley -225
Shane Nelson +175

Ryan Madigan +260
Tandan Mccrory -350

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Odds now listed for the full card. i like

Chalk:
Gray Maynard -160
Kendall Grove -170
Pete Sell -135

Dogs:
Jason Brilz +120
Shane Carwin +150 (possible)