Happy to see I have the Lord on my side for Curran
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03-09-12 07:34 PM #176
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03-23-12 11:25 AM #177
ytd 16-19-1+$2,537.37
I love this play tonight...like absolutely love it...Thiago Michel is a bad man to put it simply...his stand up is pretty much perfect as far as it applies to MMA..Nazare will hold an advantage in grappling but he is not the type of BJJ artist where if it hits the ground it's over..I have not been impressed with Nazare's guard play at all and his top game involves a lot of passing..Michel is much larger and I believe him to be the better athlete..I like him to be able to scramble to his feet when/if it hits the mat..Thiago Michel Pereira Silva by late TKO or dominant dominant decision
***this is the max bet right now..I may add more later today
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03-23-12 11:59 AM #178
Titus 2:11 For the grace of God has appeared, bringing salvation to all men, 12 instructing us to deny ungodliness and worldly desires and to live sensibly, righteously and godly in the present age, 13 looking for the blessed hope and the appearing of the glory of our great God and Savior, Christ Jesus, 14 who gave Himself for us to redeem us from every lawless deed, and to purify for Himself a people for His own possession, zealous for good deeds.
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03-23-12 12:09 PM #179
I'm just gonna go for the kill on this one.
So a total of $1,000 to win $1,350 on Thiago Michel Pereira Silva
...let's hit this one.
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03-23-12 12:42 PM #180
DAAAANG!!! Best of luck bro!!!
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03-23-12 12:48 PM #181
God bless ur balls Jesus! If any of the dogs are gonna win I think it's this one tho
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03-23-12 01:05 PM #182
Damnnnnn..... I've been looking into this fight too and am tempted to play michel as well...
Originally Posted by Jesus Christ
I'm just gonna go for the kill on this one.
So a total of $1,000 to win $1,350 on Thiago Michel Pereira Silva...let's hit this one.
I realized Michel embarassingly slipped in his last sub lost when he threw his first kick and then he immediately got wrapped up in a rnc, but it appears he was taken down rather easily in his first submission lost. The rest of his wins have been against opponents who imo are not elite grapplers by any means. I wouldn't call nazare an elite grappler, but I'd call him 'B' level if you want to give him a letter grade. He has a powerful single and double which is arguably the best type of td for a lanky guy like thiago.
Do you have any knowledge on thiago's tdd ability? Do you know if he's fought anyone outside his two losses who are solid on the ground and have decent td capability (his wins all seem like cans to me with the exception of one opponent)? DO you know about how much his sub / ground game has improved?
There is no doubt on my mind that he will smoke nazare on the feet. But nazare has gotten every bellator opponent down that he's wanted to get down. Even in his last lost he scored two tds against a legit grappler in kirwan.
If I had any knowledge that michel's tdd was decent to good and that his sub defense was better I would play him, but he got smoked the second it got to the ground in his two losses.
Do you have any inisght into this??? I wanna play him, but would love to know more if you got some more detailed info / breakdown... GL tonight, my lord.Last edited by MMAbetMASTA; 03-23-12 at 01:09 PM.
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03-23-12 01:17 PM #183
Like the chestnuts here JC
Tailing with betpoints. Risking 50
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03-23-12 01:21 PM #184
I will tail here
Thank you Jesus and good luck
God bless
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03-23-12 01:52 PM #185
I'd be lying if I said that I thought he TDD has come to a level to compete with good wrestlers...the key to staying off his back is going to be Michel's clinch work..I'm banking on a shit ton of knees to create separation...and his ability to lock a front headlock to sprawl is a skill of his that is vastly improving over his fights...the striking is not even close and Michel has a lot of length and he knows how to use it better than anyone Nazare has ever fought..lastly I don't think Nazare has the type of BJJ that is once he gets a hold of you you're done so I see a bunch of chances for Michel to get back to his feet. Originally Posted by MMAbetMASTA
GL
***turning why I like a fight technically into text is not a strong suit of mine
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03-23-12 02:03 PM #186
Im not tht amazed with his striking...no doubt it should be superior but would say it is lightyears better. He doesnt appear to be the type of fighter who can be elusive or quick on his feet, from what I've seen he plods forward closing the opponent down and doest appear to throw too many combinations
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03-23-12 02:12 PM #187
good luck on your big play.
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03-23-12 02:18 PM #188
Good luck. Im torn on this fight. Nazare said he wasn't 100% for the kirwan fight but now he took some time off and feels better which scares me away from this fight.
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03-23-12 02:41 PM #189
I was thinking, "what the hell is V talking about" but nevertheless I went back and reviewed some of michel's fights (there is a good list of links here from the 'comments' section of this prediction article - http://www.mmamania.com/2012/3/21/28...le-on-march-23 ) Originally Posted by Vaughany
I actually have to agree that after watchign them a few times now - I am not overtly impressed with his stand up. No doubt better than nazare's stand up, but even against mediocre comp / possible cans, Michel did not impress - on the feet it was near even in every fight I watched - only when he got in the clinch or get in top position on the ground did he start to win decisively (and his wins in the clinch would have been illegal here, so he won't have those knees to the head on the ground nor soccer kicks). And the fact it looked so even against guys with losing records kind of scares me.. Going toe to toe on the feet, I did not see him having a distinct advantage against any opponent I've seen him against. He does seem to plod forward and aside from a single kick punch combination I really didn't see any combos. Nazare isn't shabby on the feet, and I think its good enough to possibly set up tds...
The more I am thinking about this fight the more it makes me hesitant!!! If Michel were at better dog odds I'd probably be playing him.
I still like him and think you're good JC on the play, but I'll admit I'm not so confident as you are! GL with that man, much respect if you hit it that's balzy!!
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03-23-12 02:44 PM #190
man jc... lots of variables in this fight. Michel is a very patient striker & while he may be much better technically, Nazare throws a lot and knows when he needs TD's.
On the other hand Michel Scrambles very well, and this fight definitely helps his cause.
I'm probably going to stay away from this one- Nazare is just too active
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03-23-12 03:01 PM #191
I haven't seen this clip and this is the most impressive showing I've seen of Michel... Yet its against a guy who is 6-5... Really torn on this one, someone stack on nazare so I can get better odds on michel, I'd feel better if I got a better price on him!!! Originally Posted by lucKO
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03-23-12 03:27 PM #192
yeah, I'm finding it hard to find value in either fighters @ the current odds. If nazare gets to 1.70 I'll probably play him small Originally Posted by MMAbetMASTA
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03-23-12 03:39 PM #193
You guys are making me nervous lol but I stand by my pick...we shall see how it goes tonight...I have a feeling this is gonna be a fight where right away you know if you're on the right guy.
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03-23-12 03:45 PM #194
I'll get baptised tomorrow if michel wins
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03-23-12 03:50 PM #195
I hear you man and in the end I do like your pick and I still lean on michel (I'll prob end up making a small play on him)! I don't mean to sound so doubtful either in your thread, just trying to get some discussion going and get some feedback to help with my decision making...trying to be unbiased and objective you know? Either way good luck, I'll be rooting for you cause I don't wanna see anyone on here lose a big chunk like that, nor do I wanna lose whatever sprinkle i make on him - WAR MICHEL! Originally Posted by Jesus Christ
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03-23-12 04:23 PM #196
Ain't nothing wrong with a good discussion I appreciate it! let's cash this! Originally Posted by MMAbetMASTA
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03-23-12 06:24 PM #197
yea, good discussion helps a lot when weighing each fighter.. Still put down 20$ on Nazare though @ 1.69. Originally Posted by Jesus Christ
JC I don't fault you on playin michel at +140, but damn man- risking that much!? Hope that's not an unrecoverable portion of your bankroll- Good Luck!
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03-23-12 07:28 PM #198
Going to be close ...
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03-23-12 07:34 PM #199
wow, nice hit jc.. Judges scored that properly, unfortunately for me!
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03-23-12 07:36 PM #200
I was almost certain the judges were gonna screw me there...whew...nice hit boys.
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03-23-12 07:36 PM #201
Cash it. I was sweatin for ya. Very nice hit!
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03-23-12 07:38 PM #202
bless me father, for i have sinned
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03-23-12 08:10 PM #203
Good call, Heyyy SOOS....
I was def worried, thought you might get screwed. Personally I scored the 1st 10-10 therefore I had a draw, but if there had to be a winner it was def michele, I don't see how you could argue a decision for nazare. Very nice win man, you got balls and I respect that - congrats!!!
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03-23-12 08:13 PM #204
BTW, what book do you use?
Surprised they let you lay to win 600 in one single str8 play!!! That's awesome
I ask because I am looking to re-deposit into a mainstream online book, I have 5 dimes account, but last time I tried to lay heavy on it my max win on a str8 play was only 300, would love to get some max 'to win' limits that are over 500. Cheers.
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03-23-12 08:36 PM #205
5dimes...they limit you at 500 on Bellator but you can bet again once the line moves.
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03-24-12 11:47 PM #206
pleasE? jesus
Points Awarded:
Jesus Christ gave rochestertitans 50 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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03-25-12 12:42 AM #207
Good luck my son.
EDIT.
I gave you tht because I'm pretty sure a post of yours last NFL season convinced me to bet Titans ML against the Ravens.
Last edited by Jesus Christ; 03-25-12 at 12:45 AM. Reason: Adding
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03-30-12 02:45 PM #208
ytd 17-19-1+$3,537.37
I've got two plays for tonight's Bellator 63 event.
First I really like Karl Ammousou against Chris Lozano...This will be Ammousou's 170 debut and I really like the skill set he is going to bring to this tourney...Lozano is a powerful striker but pretty much one dimensional with thudding 1-2 combos...I really like Ammousou to use diversified striking to pick up an early stoppage....Karl Ammousou by KO
Next up I'm going to make a wager on Carlos Pereira.. he is a powerful striker and I have real questions about Baker's ability to defend punches...guy got knocked out by someone who prolly has no business TKO'n him in his last fight...combine that with his first cut here to 170 and possible problems with being gun shy and I think I will take a shot on a volume striker such as "Indio". Carlos Pereira by TKO
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03-30-12 04:04 PM #209
like the pereira play- still thinking of playing it small Originally Posted by Jesus Christ
ytd 17-19-1+$3,537.37
I've got two plays for tonight's Bellator 63 event.
First I really like Karl Ammousou against Chris Lozano...This will be Ammousou's 170 debut and I really like the skill set he is going to bring to this tourney...Lozano is a powerful striker but pretty much one dimensional with thudding 1-2 combos...I really like Ammousou to use diversified striking to pick up an early stoppage....Karl Ammousou by KO
Next up I'm going to make a wager on Carlos Pereira.. he is a powerful striker and I have real questions about Baker's ability to defend punches...guy got knocked out by someone who prolly has no business TKO'n him in his last fight...combine that with his first cut here to 170 and possible problems with being gun shy and I think I will take a shot on a volume striker such as "Indio". Carlos Pereira by TKO
have you checked out the TUF fight yet? I'd be interested to hear your thoughts
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03-30-12 04:10 PM #210
Been contemplating doing the same two plays as I think one of the two will hit....got a lot riding on Killa B tho so will probably stay away Originally Posted by Jesus Christ
ytd 17-19-1+$3,537.37
I've got two plays for tonight's Bellator 63 event.
First I really like Karl Ammousou against Chris Lozano...This will be Ammousou's 170 debut and I really like the skill set he is going to bring to this tourney...Lozano is a powerful striker but pretty much one dimensional with thudding 1-2 combos...I really like Ammousou to use diversified striking to pick up an early stoppage....Karl Ammousou by KO
Next up I'm going to make a wager on Carlos Pereira.. he is a powerful striker and I have real questions about Baker's ability to defend punches...guy got knocked out by someone who prolly has no business TKO'n him in his last fight...combine that with his first cut here to 170 and possible problems with being gun shy and I think I will take a shot on a volume striker such as "Indio". Carlos Pereira by TKO
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