Prop Joe's Bets Thread

gabe · 01-23-12 06:42 PM

This is a picture of him from high school. Still envious?

01-23-12 07:09 PM

Originally Posted by gabe

Why hate the Brennster?

If you're simply betting on a guy 'cos you hate/are fading his opponent, you shouldn't bet so big.

When I do that, I don't risk more than $50. (on a big dog)

I genuinely thought that there was value on Roberts and in hindsight I feel like I was right. I obviously wouldn't make the same play again knowing the outcome but Roberts came close enough to finishing the fight to justify a play at +255. The size of the bet (too large) was the only issue that I have with my decision.

01-23-12 07:10 PM

The only plays from UFC on FX 1 that I regret are Shalorus and Morecraft.

01-26-12 08:15 PM

1/28/12- UFC On Fox 2

added

Dustin Jacoby (+160) to risk 300

gabe · 01-26-12 08:17 PM

I lean Camozzi but GL

01-26-12 08:59 PM

UFC on FX 2

Ian McCall (+240) to risk 1000

01-26-12 08:59 PM

Originally Posted by gabe

I lean Camozzi but GL

thanks bud.

illmatick · 01-26-12 09:20 PM

Tempted to back McCall as well, probably will if the line breaks +260.

gabe · 01-27-12 06:05 AM

I'm with you on McCall. That line is a steal.

01-29-12 07:44 PM

UFC on Fox 2 Results: + $1200

Thread totals = + 1158.75

Still recovering from the horrible UFC on FX loss. I hope to be back to where I was within the next 6 events.

01-29-12 07:46 PM

2/4/12 - UFC 143

Roy Nelson (-110) to win 1000

Scotty Jorgenson (+205) to risk 200

Clifford Starks (+200) to risk 100

01-29-12 07:50 PM

Lowering my standard small value (within 40-50 pts of my own line) and medium value(within 60-80) from 200 to 100 and from 300/400/500 to 200/300/400 respectively while keeping my larger bet values the same.

01-29-12 07:52 PM

Originally Posted by proposition joe

UFC on FX 2

Ian McCall (+240) to risk 1000

added

That Japanese Guy (+600) to risk 200

01-29-12 07:55 PM

6/2/12 - Silva vs Sonnen II

Anderson Silva (-235) to win 3000

Vitor Belfort (-335) to win 1000

Will arb Silva into a better price once Sonnen reaches +275 range, which is something that I expect.

PunisherIND · 01-29-12 08:00 PM

Originally Posted by proposition joe

added

That Japanese Guy (+600) to risk 200

haha

PunisherIND · 01-29-12 08:03 PM

Originally Posted by proposition joe

6/2/12 - Silva vs Sonnen II

Anderson Silva (-235) to win 3000

Vitor Belfort (-335) to win 1000

Will arb Silva into a better price once Sonnen reaches +275 range, which is something that I expect.

love the anderson silva line. i need a bookmaker account. id be happy to take him at -300 or better.

and im with you on belfort. got him at -265 on bodog.

Beelzebubzy · 01-29-12 08:36 PM

I'm with you on belfort
He is slowing down but unlike his hand speed to over come those wild exchanges
2u -335

01-31-12 09:02 PM

Originally Posted by proposition joe

2/4/12 - UFC 143

Roy Nelson (-110) to win 1000

Scotty Jorgenson (+205) to risk 200

Clifford Starks (+200) to risk 100

added

Michael Kuiper (+200) to risk 200

gabe · 02-01-12 01:36 AM

hell yeah, Mikey K, baby!

02-10-12 12:03 PM

Cold streak continues. My gambling account is doing fine though (I chased on Condit, even though I favored Diaz. My logic was that rather than getting +157 on Condit winning, I was getting +157 on there being at least one upset on the card. Terrible logic and I'm a lucky bastard!) Obviously I won't count that towards my total or even consider it a win in my mind. I feel pretty dumb about the Nelson bet particularly. I obviously didn't do my proper homework on Werdum.

UFC 145

Michael McDonald (+155) to risk 2000

02-10-12 12:04 PM

Forgot to post this way back

UFC on Fuel 1

Jake Ellenberger (-245) to win 1000

Vitooch · 02-10-12 12:06 PM

You will get back on track with this play. GL

Beelzebubzy · 02-10-12 12:06 PM

Originally Posted by proposition joe

Cold streak continues. My gambling account is doing fine though (I chased on Condit, even though I favored Diaz. My logic was that rather than getting +157 on Condit winning, I was getting +157 on there being at least one upset on the card. Terrible logic and I'm a lucky bastard!) Obviously I won't count that towards my total or even consider it a win in my mind. I feel pretty dumb about the Nelson bet particularly. I obviously didn't do my proper homework on Werdum.

UFC 145

Michael McDonald (+155) to risk 2000

02-10-12 12:07 PM

Originally Posted by proposition joe

Forgot to post this way back

UFC on Fuel 1

Jake Ellenberger (-245) to win 1000

Note: I will be arbing out of this bet if Diego hits +315 or better

02-10-12 12:08 PM

Originally Posted by Vitooch

You will get back on track with this play. GL

Thanks bud.

Rubber Guard · 02-10-12 12:13 PM

I like most of these plays. But I don't understand the stabs at the dogs in the new 125lb division.

Joe B and Mighty Mouse have both hung in there with the best at 135lbs. They will be beasts at 125lbs. McCall really isn't very good, I don't see where he will be better than Might Mouse? Johnson will be strong for this division.

And as for THAT Japanese Guy. I don't know much about him either. But Japanese "stars" are great fade material. Even the good ones have sucked in the U.S. This guys record doesn't look all that impressive and he is 35 years old. Benividez is a top 3 135 ponder. He will smash this guy (not like it is going out on a limb. ) I understand taking a stab at those high numbers, but in the end I just see it as throwing away money. Neither guy has any advantage in their fights. They put Johnson and Joe B on opposite sides so they could have them both fight for the 1st title, because they are head and shoulders the best 125ers right now in such a young division.

Good Luck though. I love the Silva, Belfort, and Ellenberger plays. You got Ellenberger at a good price.

02-10-12 12:17 PM

Originally Posted by Beelzebubzy

02-10-12 12:23 PM

Originally Posted by Rubber Guard

I like most of these plays. But I don't understand the stabs at the dogs in the new 125lb division.

Joe B and Mighty Mouse have both hung in there with the best at 135lbs. They will be beasts at 125lbs. McCall really isn't very good, I don't see where he will be better than Might Mouse? Johnson will be strong for this division.

And as for THAT Japanese Guy. I don't know much about him either. But Japanese "stars" are great fade material. Even the good ones have sucked in the U.S. This guys record doesn't look all that impressive and he is 35 years old. Benividez is a top 3 135 ponder. He will smash this guy (not like it is going out on a limb. ) I understand taking a stab at those high numbers, but in the end I just see it as throwing away money. Neither guy has any advantage in their fights. They put Johnson and Joe B on opposite sides so they could have them both fight for the 1st title, because they are head and shoulders the best 125ers right now in such a young division.

Good Luck though. I love the Silva, Belfort, and Ellenberger plays. You got Ellenberger at a good price.

Thanks

I see McCall as a huge value play. I favor him over Mighty Mouse for several reasons and I completely disagree with him not being "very good". I give the wrestling advantage to McCall as well as toughness and tenacity. Mighty Mouse is the one whom I feel has an overinflated stock right now.

Plus, he paints his fingernails and acts like a bisexual rock star. SWAG.

Joey Benz should run the division but I still feel there is value at +600.

Rubber Guard · 02-10-12 12:30 PM

Maybe I am looking too far at level of competition. But a guy lke McCall will look really good in Tachi Palace fights. Johnson has beat guys like Torres. And although beat easy by Cruz, he did some good things. That is a top P4P fighter he lost too. Maybe I am looking too far into opponents, but I think McCall hasn't fought half as good of competition as Johnson.

At 5'3 and 5'4 Johnson and Joe B could have found an organization to fight at 125lbs. Instead they chose the UFC to face the best guys in a weight class where they had no business being in. They literally were the 2 smallest guys in the UFC, yet ended up as top 3 guys vs. the best 135 lbers in the world. I think moving to the correct weight class will even bring out a better version of these guys.

Again, I could be looking too far into opponents. I respect what they accomplished facing the best 135ers. I guess we will see what happens. Perhaps there is value because the public doesn't know their opponents.

02-10-12 03:46 PM

Originally Posted by Rubber Guard

Maybe I am looking too far at level of competition. But a guy lke McCall will look really good in Tachi Palace fights. Johnson has beat guys like Torres. And although beat easy by Cruz, he did some good things. That is a top P4P fighter he lost too. Maybe I am looking too far into opponents, but I think McCall hasn't fought half as good of competition as Johnson.

At 5'3 and 5'4 Johnson and Joe B could have found an organization to fight at 125lbs. Instead they chose the UFC to face the best guys in a weight class where they had no business being in. They literally were the 2 smallest guys in the UFC, yet ended up as top 3 guys vs. the best 135 lbers in the world. I think moving to the correct weight class will even bring out a better version of these guys.

Again, I could be looking too far into opponents. I respect what they accomplished facing the best 135ers. I guess we will see what happens. Perhaps there is value because the public doesn't know their opponents.

McCall also fought Cruz and did better than Johnson

02-10-12 04:04 PM

Originally Posted by proposition joe

Forgot to post this way back

UFC on Fuel 1

Jake Ellenberger (-245) to win 1000

added

Ronny Markes (+110) to risk 100

02-23-12 09:26 PM

Back on track after UFC on Fuel

UFC 144

Steve Cantwell (+245) to risk 500

Hatsu Hioki (-170) to win 300

Vaughan Lee (+275) to risk 200

Tamura (+200) to risk 100

gabe · 02-23-12 10:13 PM

Originally Posted by proposition joe

Back on track after UFC on Fuel

UFC 144

Steve Cantwell (+245) to risk 500

Hatsu Hioki (-170) to win 300

Vaughan Lee (+275) to risk 200

Tamura (+200) to risk 100

Risking 500 on Cantwell against Fukuda?! You must know something I don't!

02-24-12 12:10 AM

Originally Posted by gabe

Risking 500 on Cantwell against Fukuda?! You must know something I don't!

Cantwell really only has problems with guys who can outstrike him. I don't see Fukuda as one of those guys. I had Massenzio as a dog vs Cantwell and the first round had me really worried. Cantwell looked great imo. He seemed to gas and became very hittable in the last two rounds. Maybe a second go @ 185 will help his gas tank. Even if not, I don't think that Fukuda will have the hands to really cause problems for Cantwell. His wrestling will be superior but Cantwell has very good submissions and might even have a bigger advantage there than he does on the feet.

gabe · 02-24-12 12:13 AM

Originally Posted by proposition joe

Cantwell really only has problems with guys who can outstrike him. I don't see Fukuda as one of those guys. I had Massenzio as a dog vs Cantwell and the first round had me really worried. Cantwell looked great imo. He seemed to gas and became very hittable in the last two rounds. Maybe a second go @ 185 will help his gas tank. Even if not, I don't think that Fukuda will have the hands to really cause problems for Cantwell. His wrestling will be superior but Cantwell has very good submissions and might even have a bigger advantage there than he does on the feet.

Hm... I'm almost certain Fukuda won't lose. I will be really shocked.

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