[TheGovernor11]

I'm not a fan of making picks so far away from fight night (event is on 12-27-08) but I feel that these odds are only going to get worse.

3* Quinton Jackson -105 vs. Wanderlei Silva


The way I'm seeing it, as soon as the promotion starts for this event the odds will level out or see Rampage as the favorite.

For the same reason, I'm holding off on betting Rasahd Evans.

[shady610]

Silva is the play. its hard to bet against a guy who holds 2 wins over the other.

mir will win, and his value is great.

evans is probably the strongest i have ever felt for one fighter, in a competitive bout.

[TheGovernor11]

How do you suppose Frank Mir will win? He has never faced someone the caliber of Minotauro let alone beaten anyone this good. Mir depends on his BJJ to win fights and he's at a disadvantage in this category. Without giving a full breakdown, I will just say he's not winning.

With Wanderlei, I'll agree that it's hard to bet against someone who holds two wins over his opponent... except when those two wins happened four and five years ago. It might be a boring fight because Rampage takes Wanderlei down and GnP but he will also take the victory.

[walbjj]

Yushin Okami vs. Dean Lister - okami
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Frank Mir - nog
Forrest Griffin vs. Rashad Evans- no play yet
Quinton Jackson vs. Wanderlei Silva- no play yet, but leaning rampage due to better conditioning
Ryo Chonan vs. Brad Blackburn- no play, leaning ryo
Antoni Hardonk vs. Mark Burch- hardonk
CB Dollaway vs. Mike Massenzio- cb
Cheick Kongo vs. Mustapha Al-Turk- kongo
Matt Hamill vs. Reese Andy- hamill
Dan Evensen vs. Pat Barry- no play, dont know enough about the fighters

[TheGovernor11]

Walbjj, nice picks. I'm going pretty much the same way as you.

[vassman86]

Governor, I've gotta disagree with your pick on Rampage. It's his first fight after losing his title to Griffin. After that loss, he was an absolute mess, living off of energy drinks. Wanderlei, on the other hand, is coming off of a 36 second knockout victory over Keith Jardine; just the confidence booster he needed.

Skill-wise, Jackson is the stronger and better wrestler. We all know Rampage can pack a punch, after seeing him make sport of Chuck Liddell.
Wanderlei Silva brings excitement. This guy's goal is to finish fights. I love watching Wandy. He brings so much intensity to his fights and isn't scared to throw punches, or go for the kill. Silva is a BJJ black belt and a good one at that. Silva also has the advantage standing up with his powerful hands and deadly muay-thai. For years, he's trained with Chute Boxe, a highly regarded training camp known for producing deadly strikers. Off of the top of my head, here's a list of fighters that have trained at Chute Boxe:
Anderson Silva
Anthony Johnson
Thiago Silva
Gabriel Gonzaga


I think the odds should be somewhere along the lines of Rampage +130, Silva -150. I expect Silva to end this fight the same way the first two fights ended.
Wanderlei Silva via TKO R2

If you're planning on taking Silva, do so while the lines are favourable.


As for Mir, he's a submission specialist, a BJJ black belt as well. Much of the same can be said for Noguiera. He too is a submission specialist, a BJJ black belt, and a Judo black belt. When the fight goes to the ground, neither fighter has ever been submitted; it's anyone's game. However, on the feet, Nogueira has some decent boxing skills and I'd have to give him the edge over Mir.
So, who gets the edge overall? It has to go to Nogueira. I think his fighting experience will play a big role in the outcome of the fight. Nog will be know what submission attempts Mir will be shooting for, and will be prepared to defend accordingly. But then again, Mir is no push-over when it comes to submissions. With odds of +300, I'd take my chances with Mir.

[Bread]

I don't even want to think about UFC for a few weeks after my debacle on Saturday. Jeezus Christ.

[turbozed]

Wandy has the mental advantage. Before the Griffin fight, I would've given Rampage the edge in a close fight. After flipping out, having to deal with legal and psychological effects, acting in a couple of B fighting movies, and flying to Europe to train, I don't think Rampage will have the focus necessary to beat Wandy. Wandy, on the other hand, leads a balanced life and is only crazy in the cage.

I've been trying to follow what Rampage has been up to the past few months and all I was able to find are a couple of generic interviews. Maybe the seclusion will help him focus but I'm thinking it's more he's laying low after the whole debacle. If UFC cared about his future I think they'd give him an easier opponent in his comeback fight. Instead, they give him the guy that brutally KO'd him twice in the past.

[JerseyRob]

Originally Posted by shady610

Silva is the play. its hard to bet against a guy who holds 2 wins over the other.

mir will win, and his value is great.

evans is probably the strongest i have ever felt for one fighter, in a competitive bout.

Mir will win? I would love to know what makes you so confident on that one.

[TheGovernor11]

Vassman and Tubrozed-

Wanderlei does have a solid shot of winning this fight but I don’t believe for the reasons either of you guys stated. I don’t see the mental factor being an issue and feel it’s more of a positive than negative that he’s coming off a loss as it got him to drop Juanito Ibarra as his trainer. Wanderlei’s black belt in BJJ has never been utilized and he hasn’t trained at Chute Boxe for almost two years now (and it’s been even longer since most of the guys on your list trained there). Also, part of the reason he left there because the camp wasn’t helping him grow as a fighter anymore. Once Wand, Shogun, and Ninja left, it signaled the end of Chute Boxe as one of the world’s best camps.

I feel that the biggest factor that will result in a Wanderlei victory will be if he uses his Thai clinch and if he’s successful at it. For whatever reason, he hasn’t used the Thai clinch and subsequent knees in years. While some reason can be seen on why Wandy didn’t/couldn’t use the clinch against Hendo, the same cannot be said in his match against Chuck where he had ample opportunities and never did. This will be an important weapon as Rampage’s style leaves him open to upward attacks (after Rampage throws, he changes levels and leans forward) and the fact that Wand doesn’t throw uppercuts.

However, even if Wand does try to use the Muay Thai clinch against Rampage, I don’t feel that he’ll be anywhere near as successful as he was in the past and that Rampage will use to position to take Wand down. Here, Rampage will never be in serious danger of being submitted and will ground and pound his way to a unanimous decision.



If you are planning to bet on Wanderlei, I still feel you should wait. Once the All Access and countdown shows start, the Rampage hype will really begin and people will lay money on him. Think about it this way, what's going to mean more to the casual fan and bettor, KOing Keith Jardine or KOing Chuck Liddell?

[TheGovernor11]

2* Forrest Griffin -135 vs. Rasad Evans

Initially when I thought about this match I thought that Rashad would win. Not because I thought he was much better than Forrest but more because I don't think that Forrest is very good. Thankfully, I always do a little research before I make my picks and re-watch every relevant fight I have of the two fighters. After watching Rashad Evan's fights and paying close attention to his last three, I came to this realization: Rashad Evans sucks.

Now I don't mean this literally as he is a good fighter and his undefeated record proves so. But when he’s fighting for a title, he’s going to be held to a much higher standard. First, Rashad’s small for 205 and it’s shown in his takedown and clinch power. He’s a superior wrestler to most of his opponents but even with a deep shot, he doesn’t always have the muscle to always complete the takedown. This is the same when he clinches as he is easily shrugged off. When he fights for the title, this will be a problem as Forrest is a HUGE light heavyweight.

Secondly, I don’t care that he knocked out Chuck Liddell; Rashad’s standup is not good, period. The wild looping punches he wings out, while packing power, aren’t going to work against a much more technical striker like Forrest. Before anyone says that they worked against a technical striker like Michael Bisping, let me point out that Forrest had two things that he didn’t; an advantage in reach and having more power behind his shots.

Other questions can also be raised against Rashad. His submission game has never been seen while Forrest has legitimate BJJ skills. Similarly, Rashad’s cardio is a cause for concern as this is his first five round fight and that he wasn’t able to maintain his intensity versus Bisping. Forrest on the other hand is a cardio machine.

I think Rashad needs to KO Forrest in the first two rounds if he’s going to have any shot of winning this fight. The longer this goes, the more I see his chances of winning dwindle. Though originally picking Rashad to win, I’m now going with Forrest win via unanimous decision and hand him his first loss.

[Bon]

The money will come in on Silva closer towards fight time.

[TheGovernor11]

Originally Posted by Bon

The money will come in on Silva closer towards fight time.

...because? I'm determining that the late money will come in on Rampage because I'm thinking about this from the casual bettors standpoint. The UFC is MMA to the general public and Chuck is one of the three best known LHW (along with Randy and Tito). Who knocked Chucked out and took his belt and who did Chuck bloodied up and beat? I know perfectly well that MMA Math is stupid and useless but the general public doesn't. To them, it works in most other sports and logically make sense so why won't it apply here? Factor this in with Rampage's personality and market appeal, the language barrier Wand has, and the ridiculous reasoning that exist in many Americans thought process (big black guy is obviously going to win, American's are better because they're from the USA, etc.) lead me to believe that the late money will come in on Rampage. I can easily be wrong here but this is what I'm thinking.

[shady610]

Mir will win because he doesnt waste time. he doesnt use his bjj as a setup or defense. he grabs a limb and breaks it. if you look at his record he has 6 sumbissions in ufc

travern- armbar
williama- shoulder lock
tank- toe hold
sylvia- armbar
hardonk- kimura
lesnar- leglock

all those without one choke sumbmission. Im not buying into nog taking a beating and catching someone late. im buying into, mir going in and sumbitting someone without wasting time.

[TheGovernor11]

I don't even know how to respond to this so good luck I guess.

[MMAJOE]

These are my leans and predictions right now, Things can Change and i always wait for the weigh ins before i bet.


Yushin Okami vs. Dean Lister - Okami bye Tko or Dec


Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Frank Mir - Nog bye Tko 2nd or 3rd


Forrest Griffin vs. Rashad Evans-Forrest bye dec


Quinton Jackson vs. Wanderlei Silva- Rampage training without distractions in the UK. No Pride rules ropes, Soccer kicks,ect.Silva has not used the knees for a long time. Rampage has very good stand up.Rampage dec or TKO ( i could be wrong guys big fan of both fighter tough to call fight, might not bet on this one)

Ryo Chonan vs. Brad Blackburn- BLackburn bye dec


Antoni Hardonk vs. Mark Burch- hardonk via TKO


CB Dollaway vs. Mike Massenzio- Massenzio bye Sub


Cheick Kongo vs. Mustapha Al-Turk- Kongo bye KO


Matt Hamill vs. Reese Andy- Hamill Dec or TKO


Dan Evensen vs. Pat Barry-Not Familar with either fighter , Taking Evenson

[walbjj]

shady- gl with that theory. i dont see it happening tho. he has to get nog to the ground first, and nog likes to stand and strike. mir has no takedowns.

[turbozed]

Originally Posted by TheGovernor11

Vassman and Tubrozed-

Wanderlei does have a solid shot of winning this fight but I don’t believe for the reasons either of you guys stated. I don’t see the mental factor being an issue and feel it’s more of a positive than negative that he’s coming off a loss as it got him to drop Juanito Ibarra as his trainer.
...
Think about it this way, what's going to mean more to the casual fan and bettor, KOing Keith Jardine or KOing Chuck Liddell?

I've followed Rampage for a while and his mindset and consistency has always been the major question about him. Losing has always had a negative effect on him and he has come out flat in fights coming off losses. After he lost to Wandy the first time, he was given a gimme in Minowa-man. After the second loss, he fought Ninja and lost and got a gift decision. After being rolled by Ninja, he came back and looked flat in his next few fights. He was supposed to blow away Yoon Dong Sik in Sik's first fight, but won a unimpressive decision.

Here, losing to Griffin really put him in a really bad a spot. If he comes out flat here, he won't come out with a win. Wandy's got the edge when it comes to being mentally prepared and focused IMO. All the pressure is on Rampage to perform.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Originally Posted by TheGovernor11

I don't even know how to respond to this so good luck I guess.

LOL, i just listened to some guy argue that Mir would KO Nog because Hearing almost took him out with that kick. But didn't mention the fact that Mir only has one KO and thatwas Vs Wes Sims. That KO was more due to Sims being exhausted. Not to mention Nog has never been KO'd and he's fought Fedor, CroCop (in his prime) and Sylvia with a huge reach. I know anything can happen in MMA, but theres no way Mir wins this fight

[TheGovernor11]

Originally Posted by turbozed

I've followed Rampage for a while and his mindset and consistency has always been the major question about him. Losing has always had a negative effect on him and he has come out flat in fights coming off losses. After he lost to Wandy the first time, he was given a gimme in Minowa-man. After the second loss, he fought Ninja and lost and got a gift decision. After being rolled by Ninja, he came back and looked flat in his next few fights. He was supposed to blow away Yoon Dong Sik in Sik's first fight, but won a unimpressive decision.

Here, losing to Griffin really put him in a really bad a spot. If he comes out flat here, he won't come out with a win. Wandy's got the edge when it comes to being mentally prepared and focused IMO. All the pressure is on Rampage to perform.

I agree 100% with everything you said. The difference I see here though is Rampage hooking up with the Wolf's Lair. While some fighters need a solid team to succeed and others don't, I truly feel that Rampage is the type of fighter that NEEDS a solid team. Not to help him physically but to help him mentally. He's not the type of fighter that likes going to the gym to work and has troubles motivating himself. It's going to take more than just one trainer to get Rampage's head in sync with his body. I think with an entire team helping him because they want to and not because they're getting paid, this will solve the mental problem for Rampage in this fight.


*Just to clarify that last statement. Juanito Ibarra, Rampage's trainer for his previous 7 fights and former boxing trainer, use to hire training partners for Rampage (typical practice in boxing). Unlike boxing though, MMA fighters are on a much more equal level and help each other out because they'll return the favor. This is much more valuable than money as stringing together three or four wins can put you in line for a title shot and bigger pay days.

[turbozed]

I think you probably have a higher opinion of Wolf's Lair than I do. I personally think that he won't pick up too much there and half the time he'll be wondering what the heck those limeys are talking about. I've seen enough interviews of Rampage over the past few years where he claims he's working the hardest he's ever worked and how we'll see a new fighter, etc. Though he might someday begin to fight to his potential, I think this is the most unlikely spot that he would do so with so many distractions and facing Wandy of all people after a tough loss.

[TheGovernor11]

It's not so much the Wolf's Lair that I'm sold on but rather the need for Rampage to have a support system that a solid team offers. And by solid team, I don't mean an elite team like Jackson Submission Fighting or even a team on the rise like Sityodtong but more like Arizona Combat Sports. He just needs something that's better than Juanito Ibarra or Colin Oyama. But I'm with you, I doubt Rampage's going to learn any new skills there. I just see them helping motivate and mentally prepare him for the fight.

[Bon]

Originally Posted by TheGovernor11

...because?

I'd be more inclined to go with your reasoning if the 2 hadn't already fought. But, since they've already fought (twice), and it's generally accepted the guy who wins the rubber match is usually the one who wins the second fight... Since Wanderlei is 2-0 so far by KO, the general public would see no reason why this fight would go any differently.

Look at other threads, polls, fantasy betting sites, etc... here's one:

Who Will Win: Wanderlei Silva or Quinton Jackson?

Wanderlei Silva by KO/TKO 63% Quinton Jackson by KO/TKO 25% Quinton Jackson by Decision 6% Wanderlei Silva by Decision 4% Wanderlei Silva by SUB 2% Quinton Jackson by SUB 1%

[TheGovernor11]

Originally Posted by Bon

I'd be more inclined to go with your reasoning if the 2 hadn't already fought. But, since they've already fought (twice), and it's generally accepted the guy who wins the rubber match is usually the one who wins the second fight... Since Wanderlei is 2-0 so far by KO, the general public would see no reason why this fight would go any differently.

Look at other threads, polls, fantasy betting sites, etc... here's one:

Who Will Win: Wanderlei Silva or Quinton Jackson?

Wanderlei Silva by KO/TKO 63% Quinton Jackson by KO/TKO 25% Quinton Jackson by Decision 6% Wanderlei Silva by Decision 4% Wanderlei Silva by SUB 2% Quinton Jackson by SUB 1%

That poll is from the tracker and the majority of people on there are hardcore fans, not the general public. And I think the extended period of time between the second and third fight (over four years) negates the rubber match theory. Neither man is the same fighter he was back then.

[turbozed]

How would you explain the money presently going towards Wandy?

[TheGovernor11]

It's still early? I don't know, I may be completely wrong here and if I am, I'll happily admit it. This is just what I'm thinking and how I see things. But I'm pissed I jumped on him and Forrest earlier than I normally do, that's for sure. Much rather have the odds they're giving now.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Originally Posted by turbozed

How would you explain the money presently going towards Wandy?

I think its because anyone who bets MMA follows it. So they know who Wandy is and that he's KO'd Rampage twice. Thats and the fact Rampahe lost to Griffen, i feel are the reason the money has come in on Wandy so far.

[turbozed]

Originally Posted by THE_LOCKSMITH

I think its because anyone who bets MMA follows it. So they know who Wandy is and that he's KO'd Rampage twice. Thats and the fact Rampahe lost to Griffen, i feel are the reason the money has come in on Wandy so far.

Agree with this. I would say most of the money coming in on fights come from people who would consider themselves a 'hardcore' or at least 'big' fan of MMA instead of just a casual follower. Casual fans wouldn't risk much money to affect the lines anyway.

[Bon]

Just my opinion, bro... but, I feel pretty strongly about it nonetheless... everywhere I look tells me the public favor Wandy.

2008-12-27 - UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008
Quinton Jackson 117 94 Bets $128528 Place Bet
Wanderlei Silva -133 127 Bets $8770580

[TheGovernor11]

Originally Posted by THE_LOCKSMITH

I think its because anyone who bets MMA follows it. So they know who Wandy is and that he's KO'd Rampage twice. Thats and the fact Rampahe lost to Griffen, i feel are the reason the money has come in on Wandy so far.

It's probably because of my disdain for Forrest that I didn't even consider his win over Rampage. I don't know how I overlooked that when thinking from the casual fan's POV but yeah, I did . And while they may know that he lost twice to Wand, KOing Chuck in their minds triumphs all. Perfect example of this is my brother, a HUGE sports fan who knows more about sports than anyone else I know (got on that show stump the schwab twice), thinks Chuck's the best fighter and should never lose; it's ridiculous.

Originally Posted by turbozed

Agree with this. I would say most of the money coming in on fights come from people who would consider themselves a 'hardcore' or at least 'big' fan of MMA instead of just a casual follower. Casual fans wouldn't risk much money to affect the lines anyway.

I think people may consider themselves big fans of MMA and knowledgeable of the sport but did you happen to see Shady's ridiculous post? I think that everyone on this forum is more than a casual bettor and seeing insightful predictions and subsequent bets like this happen more often than we'd think.

But again, I could very easily be wrong and if I am, I am. All that really matters to me is that I'm right on fight night .

And I'm not conceding anything quite yet, I still think I'll be right.

[TheGovernor11]

Originally Posted by Bon

Just my opinion, bro... but, I feel pretty strongly about it nonetheless... everywhere I look tells me the public favor Wandy.

2008-12-27 - UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008
Quinton Jackson 117 94 Bets $128528 Place Bet
Wanderlei Silva -133 127 Bets $8770580

I hear ya man, mean no disrespect.

[Bon]

Do you have aim? hit me up if you do... bjjbon

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Originally Posted by TheGovernor11

It's probably because of my disdain for Forrest that I didn't even consider his win over Rampage. I don't know how I overlooked that when thinking from the casual fan's POV but yeah, I did . And while they may know that he lost twice to Wand, KOing Chuck in their minds triumphs all. Perfect example of this is my brother, a HUGE sports fan who knows more about sports than anyone else I know (got on that show stump the schwab twice), thinks Chuck's the best fighter and should never lose.

I disagree with you, i think Silva will be the fav the whole way. Like i said before anyone who bets UFC i think will remember Silvas 2 wins over rampage, plus rampages loss to Griffen and going crazy. Rampages win over Liddell isn't seen as big since he's lost to Jardine and Evans since that win. Another reason why I feel Silva will remain the betting fav is most people go on what happened in each fighters last fight. Rampage losing and going "crazy", and Silva destroying Jardine in like 40 seconds.

Saying this i hope i'm right because i'll be holding out 50% of my bet hoping the odds improve closer to fight time (Taking Rampage)

[JoshW]

Rampage is mentally unstable. It could help (likely hurt), but I have to think it would be pretty tough to play him not knowing who is going to show up.

[rockhardfister]

Originally Posted by vassman86

Governor, I've gotta disagree with your pick on Rampage. It's his first fight after losing his title to Griffin. After that loss, he was an absolute mess, living off of energy drinks. Wanderlei, on the other hand, is coming off of a 36 second knockout victory over Keith Jardine; just the confidence booster he needed.

Skill-wise, Jackson is the stronger and better wrestler. We all know Rampage can pack a punch, after seeing him make sport of Chuck Liddell.
Wanderlei Silva brings excitement. This guy's goal is to finish fights. I love watching Wandy. He brings so much intensity to his fights and isn't scared to throw punches, or go for the kill. Silva is a BJJ black belt and a good one at that. Silva also has the advantage standing up with his powerful hands and deadly muay-thai. For years, he's trained with Chute Boxe, a highly regarded training camp known for producing deadly strikers. Off of the top of my head, here's a list of fighters that have trained at Chute Boxe:
Anderson Silva
Anthony Johnson
Thiago Silva
Gabriel Gonzaga


I think the odds should be somewhere along the lines of Rampage +130, Silva -150. I expect Silva to end this fight the same way the first two fights ended.
Wanderlei Silva via TKO R2

If you're planning on taking Silva, do so while the lines are favourable.


As for Mir, he's a submission specialist, a BJJ black belt as well. Much of the same can be said for Noguiera. He too is a submission specialist, a BJJ black belt, and a Judo black belt. When the fight goes to the ground, neither fighter has ever been submitted; it's anyone's game. However, on the feet, Nogueira has some decent boxing skills and I'd have to give him the edge over Mir.
So, who gets the edge overall? It has to go to Nogueira. I think his fighting experience will play a big role in the outcome of the fight. Nog will be know what submission attempts Mir will be shooting for, and will be prepared to defend accordingly. But then again, Mir is no push-over when it comes to submissions. With odds of +300, I'd take my chances with Mir.

Silva was able to take Roids in Pride (he cant in the US), everybody knows that. In addition Rampage was kicking the shit out of Silva until he gassed out with a couple minutes left. Silva was saved by the bell and by the biased Japenese refs who stood the fight back up every time Rampage tries to get his ground and pound going.