[r2d2]

SO, question here. Read the rules for beat the prick, got signed up at cris, joined here a month ago. only thing i don't get is the "number of posts" here on sbr forum may be a factor in the prick contest? can anyone shed light on this for me, i dont want to sit here and have to make posts to get to a certain #, but if that is the case, then i guess i gotta. any help is appreciated.

[anthon9283]

I think if you are tied with other members, then they use the post count to chose which one will win. Im not sure but I think it is only for the $500 prize each week and it may have a factor in the final prizes. I'm not all to certain what the facts are but I'm sure someone else will reply shortly to clear it up.

[cincy_1]

It's the post count to break ties, and it makes sense - though I would have preferred "join date"

[onlòóker]

The post count is the tie breaker. To decide the $500 weekly 1st place, and if we have more the 49 winners after that.

So yes, post count, is the Beat the Prick tie breaker.

[Ganchrow]

Weekly rankings for all places are first decided by that week's point total. If two or more contestants have equal point totals for a given week, the tie breakers are as follows:

1. contestant with the greatest number of wins that week
2. contestant with the fewest number of losses that week
3. contestant with the greatest post count as of that week's pick submission

End-of-season rankings for all places are first decided by season point total. If two or more contestants have equal point totals, the tie breakers are as follows:

1. contestant with the greatest number of wins among their weekly "Best Bets" for the season
2. contestant with the greatest number of posts at SBR Forum as of the time of their Week 13 picks (the weekend of Dec 2^nd, 2006)

Complete contest rules are available here.

[ivyconniver]

So essentially, for the grand prize over the entire season it's not very likely that post count will matter...

[Bill Dozer]

Originally Posted by ivyconniver

So essentially, for the grand prize over the entire season it's not very likely that post count will matter...

Right. Maybe our resident mathematician can give us the odds of a tie on both the record and best bets. Ganch?
-edited for political correctness-

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by Bill Dozer

Right. Maybe our resident mathematician can give us the odds of a tie on both the record and best bets. Ganch?
-edited for political correctness-

This is actually a nontrivial problem for several reasons, not least of which is that there exists correlation between players' results.

Anyway, completing discounting that correlation and completely ignoring pushes ATS, I ran a small Monte Carlo simulation over woefully too few trials. This implementation is extremely slow but if anyone cares for the source code just PM me.

The results assume 175 players each making 4 picks including 1 "Best Bet" over 16 weeks:

N                           	65,536
Mean Winning Point Total    	 27.34
Mean Winning Best Bets      	 11.50
Std Dev WPT                 	  3.98
Std Dev WBBs                	  1.22
Any Tie Likelihood        	  6.17%
2-Way Tie Likelihood        	  5.68%
3-Way Tie Likelihood        	  0.46%
4-or-More-Way Tie Likelihood	  0.03%

[pags11]

you're awesome ganchrow, it's amazing how that mind of yours works...