[Chance Harper]

New York, New York: Mets & Yankees face key tests

Jose Reyes and the New York Mets are clinging to a one-game lead in the NL East as they prepare to open a series in Milwaukee against the hot Brewers, winners of eight of their last 10 and currently in the driver's seat for the NL Wild Card. Meanwhile the Yankees are fighting for their playoff lives, seven behind Boston in the AL Wild Card race with the Minnesota Twins sandwiched between the two rivals.


Is Edwin Jackson really any good?

The Tampa Bay Rays righthander has an 11-8 record and a pretty good 3.81 ERA in his second full season in the major leagues. He’s 6-1 in his last seven starts, allowing two runs or fewer on six occasions. Jackson’s seven-inning performance in Thursday’s 3-2 win over Toronto earned praise from ESPN’s Buster Olney, who said the 24-year-old (until next week) has “matured into a solid starter who will likely be a weapon in the postseason.”

Nearly every young pitcher has a learning curve, so it’s entirely possible that Jackson has found a new level to his game. Tampa Bay fans hope so. The other explanation for Jackson’s recent success is that he’s been lucky, something that he himself admits played a role in Thursday’s win over the Jays.

The seamhead numbers on Jackson’s 2008 season suggest he’s not that different from the pitcher who went 5-15 with a 5.76 ERA last year.

2007: 5.02 xFIP, 5.94 tRA, .342 BABIP, 65.7% LOB
2008: 5.22 xFIP, 5.45 tRA, .278 BABIP, 79.6% LOB

The average starting pitcher allows a .297 BABIP, and it’s believed that it is out of the pitcher’s control whether or not a batted ball goes for a hit. That suggests Jackson was very unlucky in 2007 and somewhat lucky in 2008. Plus, the average team is leaving about 60 percent of its runners on base this year, so Jackson’s been getting himself out of a lot of jams – again, not necessarily a repeatable skill.

And he does get into a lot of jams. Jackson is seventh in the American League with 69 walks. The Rays have turned 27 double plays behind him compared to 15 last season. These are enough demerits to make Jackson a fade candidate, until he proves definitively otherwise.

On the diamonds this week, the two teams from the Big Apple grab the marquee games.

Mets at Brewers
Game 1: Monday, 2:05 p.m. Eastern
NYM: Johan Santana
MIL: Ben Sheets

Game 2: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m.
NYM: Jon Niese
MIL: Manny Parra

Game 3: Wednesday, 2:05 p.m.
NYM: Oliver Perez
MIL: Dave Bush

It’s safe to say the Mets (76-61, -0.72 units) are on a roll. They’re 14-5 since Aug. 12, although the quality of opposition was pretty low throughout the month of August. September should be kind, as well, but not until the Mets get out of Miller Park. The Brewers (80-56, 16.73 units) are on an 18-5 run, opening up a 5.5-game lead in the NL Wild Card race. New York is one game up on Philadelphia in the East, so this series has major playoff implications.

That’s a lot of pressure for Jon Niese. He’ll make his major-league debut in Game 2 after going 5-1 with a 3.52 ERA for the AAA-New Orleans Zephyrs. Niese came close to making the Mets this spring; he’s up now as part of the league-wide expansion to 40-man rosters for the sprint to the playoffs. The 21-year-old southpaw has a nasty curveball, a 90-mph fastball with some movement, and an improving change-up that could make the difference between Niese being a solid starter or marginally productive.

Yankees at Rays
Game 1: Tuesday, 7:10 p.m. ET
NYY: Mike Mussina
TB: Matt Garza

Game 2: Wednesday, 7:10 p.m. (ESPN)
NYY: Carl Pavano
TB: Edwin Jackson

Game 3: Thursday, 7:10 p.m.
NYY: Darrell Rasner
TB: Scott Kazmir

Tampa Bay (84-51, 29.09 units) hasn’t lost a series since the All-Star break. That’s awful news for the Yankees (72-64, -13.27 units), who are hitting the road for 10 straight days after dropping four of six at Yankee Stadium. New York also had to make a side trip to Detroit for Monday afternoon to make up a game that got rained out in May.

Carl Pavano will make his third start of the year for the Yankees in Game 2. He threw six innings of three-hit ball against the Jays on Friday, winning 2-1 and cashing in against the betting odds as a +106 home dog. New York was +137 in Pavano’s debut, a 5-3 victory in Baltimore. There’s a reason the Yankees paid him all that money in the first place.

[old threads]

NY Yankees are toast now. No new key test for them the rest of the year.

[ryanXL977]

the yanks have been dong for a while, if they werent from new york, we wouldnt have to hear about them
they are no better than toronto

[pavyracer]

With all due respect but the Yankees do not face key tests. They are not making the playoffs.