Capping and Discussions 4/11

Illusion · 04-10-2006, 02:47 PM

Post your comments and leans in this thread. If you have a play post it in the regular best bets thread. Remember, this is for comments and leans only. No results will be tracked from this thread.

Wassymac · 04-10-2006, 10:06 PM

One game that sticks out to me a bit is Florida -109 @ Home over the Padres. Mitre paid off for me in his first start (6 INN 3HITS 0ERs) and faces a very cold Padres squad with a aging Woody Williams on the hill. Doesn't feel great to lay any chalk with a 1-4 rebuilding squad but for tomorrow I like it.

Note the trend of Woody's ERA since I've paid attention to him (i.e...when the Cards stole him for Ray Lankford in 2001). I also seem to recall him struggling in day games but don't have the numbers in front of me.

2001 St. Louis 2.28
2002 St. Louis 2.53
2003 St. Louis 3.83
2004 San Diego 4.18
2005 San Diego 4.83

Wassymac · 04-10-2006, 10:23 PM

I was going to comment on the Toronto/Boston game thinking +180 was quite the price for the Jays...against who I feel is a slightly overrated and inconsistent Beckett. I see Razz has 2 units on it...so maybe I was on the right track?

Razz · 04-10-2006, 10:30 PM

Couldn't have said it much better wassymac. Is Toronto going to win this game more than 50% of the time? Probably not. But they will win it 2 out of 5, which over time amounts to a nice profit. Beckett is the most highly publicized career .500 pitcher in baseball history, and I have feasted by going against him in the past.

moses millsap · 04-10-2006, 10:34 PM

At +180, Blue Jays need to win this game more than 35.7% of the time to produce value.

Alamorich · 04-10-2006, 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wassymac

One game that sticks out to me a bit is Florida -109 @ Home over the Padres. Mitre paid off for me in his first start (6 INN 3HITS 0ERs) and faces a very cold Padres squad with a aging Woody Williams on the hill. Doesn't feel great to lay any chalk with a 1-4 rebuilding squad but for tomorrow I like it.

Note the trend of Woody's ERA since I've paid attention to him (i.e...when the Cards stole him for Ray Lankford in 2001). I also seem to recall him struggling in day games but don't have the numbers in front of me.

2001 St. Louis 2.28
2002 St. Louis 2.53
2003 St. Louis 3.83
2004 San Diego 4.18
2005 San Diego 4.83

Just to play devils advocate for a sec. It might do the Padres some good to get out of town for a while. Rockies really humiliated them. Today we have seen home teams playing tight in their home openers. T.B, Tigers, Pirates for example. Just don't see Marlins has having an edge tomorrow.

Wassymac · 04-10-2006, 10:36 PM

Definitely seems worth a shot at +180 (could even get better)...Towers had a rough go of it and Beckett was lights out their first time out. That has to inflate the # even more.

Any thoughts on my Florida play?

Wassymac · 04-10-2006, 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alamorich

Just to play devils advocate for a sec. It might do the Padres some good to get out of town for a while. Rockies really humiliated them. Today we have seen home teams playing tight in their home openers. T.B, Tigers, Pirates for example. Just don't see Marlins has having an edge tomorrow.

Thats why we're all here to discuss differing opinions. I understand the home teams playing tight but with their being zero expectations and nearly zero fans hopefully that won't affect the Marlins. Its more of a play on Mitre and against Woody if anything. At this point in their careers anything close to PK....I have to like Mitre.

Alamorich · 04-10-2006, 10:59 PM

Toronto can win that game tomorrow.

I also like Houston as a big dog only because Morris pitched well last game and he seems to either pitch lights out or he gets bombed. Good chance on him getting rocked tomorrow.

Can you see the Royals spoiling Yankees opener? I know I would like to see that very much.

moses millsap · 04-10-2006, 11:11 PM

I hate tomorrow's card. Will take a look at Nats, Rockies, and Twins a little deeper.

Alamorich · 04-10-2006, 11:14 PM

It looks like a Parlay rich environment. Should be two over -150 favorites that can be put together for a good payday.

Alamorich · 04-10-2006, 11:19 PM

Cubs just swept Cardinals...any chance they will be a little off tomorrow? Reds have been hitting the crap out of the ball and Arroyo is not all that bad.

PhilRizzo · 04-10-2006, 11:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OWNED

I hate tomorrow's card. Will take a look at Nats, Rockies, and Twins a little deeper.

I like the Rockies under 9.5 tomorow. Cook will improve off of his first outing (he's the best on the staff) and the Rockies bats were way to hot against San Diego, they'll cool of a bit against El Duke

PhilRizzo · 04-10-2006, 11:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alamorich

Cubs just swept Cardinals...any chance they will be a little off tomorrow? Reds have been hitting the crap out of the ball and Arroyo is not all that bad.

I also like this play Alamo, the cubs are on an emotional high, the city thinks this could be the year!! Time for a let down.

bigboydan · 04-11-2006, 12:27 AM

anyone else considering taking a shot with KC tomorrow ?

moses millsap · 04-11-2006, 12:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigboydan

anyone else considering taking a shot with KC tomorrow ?

Was considering KC +2 @ +100, but not so sure. Likely to be a bloodbath with Mays dealing for them