[youngsc]

Before anyone chimes in with how flawed this is, I know, hear me out first. I think I have found a way to hedge it enough that with enough games it can in fact be profitable. It's the simple betting system of betting on the same game, one on the ML of the underdog and then one bet on the -1.5 RL. Both are positive bets but two things here. You have to place different size bets so that one will offset the other and be almost equal in return after taking out the loss of the other.

Example
Team 1 RL -1.5 (+110) Place $6.00 Will return a profit of 14.73%
Team 2 ML (+158) Place $5.00 Will return a profit of 12.70%

The profits listed above are inluding the loss from the other bet.

The second part is you need to be able to spread this method across a minimum of 10-15 games in each day you do it. For right now I'm using minimum bets (around $5-6 per bet per game so $10-11 total, caries based on percentage returns) but there's no reason to not increase it to maximums as it becomes profitable. I expect to lose 1-2 of those games which is fine, the other 13-14 will more than cover and profit.

The major downside to this system as everyone knows is that around 25% of games are decided by one run, so with this it leaves 12.5% risk involved. This may or may not be accurate as the RL winner may be greater or less than 12.5%, just using the half for now.

I'm applying this to baseball in this example but I see no reason it can't be applied to any other sport so long as there are no draw oppurtunities.

I've already been doing this for a while with good results, like 100% gain in 2 days. Of course doing one game at a time the inevitable occured where I got a loss and took a hit. Tonight will be the first time on this scale so I'm expecting minimal returns but more positive than negative.

My thinking is if you can reduce your risk and exposure and trade that for a little less profit why not. If you can make 5% a day every day that's some sweet f'ing returns.

5% per day
$100 starting with 5% return per day including previous day's amount equals $5,163,032,531.22 in 365 days. I'll be happy with 50k in a year though.

Let's hear your thoughts... I feel like I'm 15 again waiting to be reprimanded for my complete and utter stupidity.

[DazeyBlazer]

funny i noticed this last week and thought about doin it....whould be helpful and intrestingto see if someone sampled the outcome ....haha....illl wait and see after that happens...

[youngsc]

I'll let you know. Like I said I had very strong results but I know that statistically doing one game at a time leaves your risk (12.5%) and if you do happen to get a streak of losers your screwed. What I'm hoping is that by diversifying your bets across the board in a single day that you will have losers but they will be offset by the winners. I'll keep a tally going, sucks all the games are tonight though.

[acuraintegralove]

post the lines you're betting if you could, and your amounts as well, I'd like to see this in action. I see the logic here...

[fifawcs]

It's good, but you have to choose your games carefully

[youngsc]

You asked for it...

I'll post the teams then lines, below that are the bet amounts and finally the return per bet $ and % for that particular bet if that one wins. Remember the $ and % numbers listed are taking out the bet loss from the reverse side. Projected daily return can be made but I don't want to do the math. My daily goal is 2% daily which makes a lot of damn coin.

Brewers(Milwaukee) +116
$6 to win $1.96 or 15.12%
Braves(Atlanta) -1.5 (+165)
$5 to win $2.25 or 16.98%

Giants(SanFrancisco) +157
$5 to win $2.35 or 18.29%
Indians(Cleveland) -1.5 (+120)
$5.50 to win $1.60 or 13.22%

Pirates(Pittsburgh) +140
$5.50 to win $1.20 or 9.09%
Yankees(NewYork) -1.5 (+105)
$6.50 to win $1.33 or 9.94%

Cardinals(StLouis) +144
$5.50 to win $1.92 or 14.31%
Tigers(Detroit) -1.5 (+130)
$6.00 to win $2.30 or 16.67%

Reds(Cincinnati) +138
$5.50 to win $2.09 or 15.97%
BlueJays(Toronto) -1.5 (+140)
$5.50 to win $2.20 or 16.67%

Rockies(Colorado) +135
$6.00 to win $2.60 or 18.44%
Royals(KansasCity) -1.5 (+145)
$5.50 to win $1.98 or 14.66%

Orioles(Baltimore) +120
$6.00 to win $2.20 or 16.67%
Cubs(Chicago) -1.5 (+155)
$5.00 to win $1.75 or 13.73%

Twins(Minnesota) +150
$5.00 to win $2.50 or 20%
Padres(SanDiego) -1.5 (+140)
$5.00 to win $2.00 or 16.67%

WhiteSox(Chicago) +107
$6.50 to win $1.96 or 14.53%
Dodgers(LA) -1.5 (+175)
$5.00 to win $2.25 or 16.36%

Rangers(Texas) +109
$6.00 to win $1.54 or 12.28%
Astros(Houston) -1.5 (+160)
$5.00 to win $2.00 or 15.38%

Mariners(Seattle) +170
$5.00 to win $2.00 or 14.81%
Mets(NY) -1.5 (+105)
$6.50 to win $1.83 or 13.70%

Nationals(Washington) +135
$5.00 to win $1.00 or 8.51%
Angels(LAA) -1.5 (+105)
$5.75 to win $1.01 or 8.80%

Diamondbacks(Arizona) +158
$7.00 to win $2.31 or 12.79%
RedSox(Boston) -1.5 (+110)
$8.75 to win $2.63 or 14.29%

So there's 13 plays for tonight. I'm not going to list these everyday but I'll update my sig line with daily percentage gains and losses as well as cumulative gains and losses. Hey like my signature says...

[fifawcs]

you should find a statistic on the amount of 1 run games there have been this year.

[youngsc]

Originally Posted by fifawcs

you should find a statistic on the amount of 1 run games there have been this year.

I planned on doing that tonight for this year and the past two full seasons. What I have to look at though is not 1 run games but how many times the favorite won by one run. Since the underdog winning by one I'm covered on the favorite winning by one is the only variable. Work is slow as hell right now, couldn't tell right, so maybe I'll get sometime this afternnon to work at it.

[xyz]

Originally Posted by youngsc

I planned on doing that tonight for this year and the past two full seasons. What I have to look at though is not 1 run games but how many times the favorite won by one run. Since the underdog winning by one I'm covered on the favorite winning by one is the only variable. Work is slow as hell right now, couldn't tell right, so maybe I'll get sometime this afternnon to work at it.

When you get deeper into the research, you should also check if the sum of the underdog ML odds and favorite -1.5 odds is correlated with the event favorite winning by 1. For example, you have two games:

game 1: underdog ML +120, favorite -1.5 +135
game 2: underdog ML +180, favorite -1.5 +140

Is game 1 more likely to have the favorite winning by 1 run than game 2? If there is no correlation, then you can almost print money. If there is different correlation for different sums, now you need to think about how to find the sweet spot to profit despite the correlations. Good luck with your research, it should have interesting results.

[youngsc]

^ good one god that will be tough to extrapilate from covers, maybe not. I think that would be good to know on a day like yesterday where there was only 5 games to play. On a day like today with around 15 you can play them all and given the 1 run loss variable you can count on a lot more wins than losses. I'll check in to that though because any pattern or trend in betting is a good edge to have.

[youngsc]

Well I did the math, the total amount of games covers provides doesn't seem right though. Maybe they didn't keep stats for all games in 06 and 07?

2006 28% 1 run games of which 14% were decided on the ML favorite winning
2007 28% 1 run games of which 14% were decided on the ML favorite winning
2008 29% 1 run games of which 15% were decided on the ML favorite winning

Overall 28% 1 run games of which 14% were decided on the ML favorite winning

So my risk for this "venture" is 14% roughly. I think to reduce your risk in any investment by 86% is pretty decent. To spread it out amongst 12-15 games per day ensures multiple victories and long term returns. AS I said my goal is 2% per day, I think it's highly probable.

[chipski]

did a quick track on 1 run wins by the fav so far this year..

april > 63 fav wins by 1 run
may > 74 fav wins by 1 run
through june 23rd > 45 fav wins by 1 run

[youngsc]

What does that equate to in percetnages? I don't think my numbers are right, close but not accurate. Which site did you use to get that info. I think I'm covers stupid.

[Hip2Bsq]

I began betting this way on the ML and the RL about a week ago with very good results. I have only been playing one or two games. Pluslines has a thread about which game to select here

At first I was using a formula to calculate the RL bet to be canceled out by the ML wager in case of a one run win. But NOW I just wager 2 units on the ML and one unit on the RL. As in yesterdays pick with LAA a one run win netted a small profit instead of a loss or even what should have been a push.

[xyz]

Originally Posted by youngsc

Well I did the math, the total amount of games covers provides doesn't seem right though. Maybe they didn't keep stats for all games in 06 and 07?

2006 28% 1 run games of which 14% were decided on the ML favorite winning
2007 28% 1 run games of which 14% were decided on the ML favorite winning
2008 29% 1 run games of which 15% were decided on the ML favorite winning

Overall 28% 1 run games of which 14% were decided on the ML favorite winning

So my risk for this "venture" is 14% roughly. I think to reduce your risk in any investment by 86% is pretty decent. To spread it out amongst 12-15 games per day ensures multiple victories and long term returns. AS I said my goal is 2% per day, I think it's highly probable.

14% agrees with the number that I came up with by looking at the SBR odds numbers. So this means roughly 1 out of 7 games would have the favorite winning by 1. If the odds are not correlated with the event that the favorite wins by 1, then assuming you lose 2 units when the favorite wins by 1, you need to gain on average 0.34 unit per win to become profitable. The only problem that can derail this is if the wins come in at lower than 0.34 unit.

[youngsc]

Overall for a day they will be higher than that. Honestly I haven't crunched the numbers to see maximum potential gain then gain with 1, 2, or 3 losses in a day. Maybe tomorrow, been drinking, tired and waiting for some of the games to wrap up now.

[youngsc]

Originally Posted by Hip2Bsq

I began betting this way on the ML and the RL about a week ago with very good results. I have only been playing one or two games. Pluslines has a thread about which game to select here

At first I was using a formula to calculate the RL bet to be canceled out by the ML wager in case of a one run win. But NOW I just wager 2 units on the ML and one unit on the RL. As in yesterdays pick with LAA a one run win netted a small profit instead of a loss or even what should have been a push.

Like I said I was betting this way one to two games at a time with great results. The problem I ran into is that my BR isn't that big so I was putting way more on teh line at one time then I should. I figured by diversifying it out I would minimize my loss more and maybe have less profit but at least have better returns daily, weekly, etc.

[fifawcs]

If you are going to do this, you need to put a lot of money down. It is essentially investing. Your return will always be less than 100%, but your risk is very low.

[fifawcs]

if it ends up working, i might start to do it.

[youngsc]

Welp so far tonight

9 games complete
I had 8 of those and covered on 7, stupid red sox and their damn comebacks.

5 more games to go tonight, cubs are threatning to screw me over too.

[youngsc]

WTF, Arizona gives it away, Houston gives some up, Baltimore is in the process of screwing up. What the hell? Seriously 3 games in one night give me a break, this is the only potential down side to this. Teams giving away runs like their candy, ridiculous.

[youngsc]

Tonight will be a blow to my efforts. 11 games down 9-2 thus far, 2 more to go. Because one of the games I lost was a larger bet size than the rest, stupid sox, I will be down a few after tonight, maybe 5-6%, provided the other two cover. I'll figure it out in the morning and post the results. I'll do it again tomorrow cause I still think there is potential but 2 out of 11 finishing against me, so far, that's right in line with the statistic so that was expected. I think two things are important here one the bet sizes need to be consistent across the board and two I still need to research the games to figure out if teams like the sox that are usually favored to win by 1 run often.

[xyz]

Where are you placing your bets? I would recommend Matchbook to maximize your odds. In this system, every cent counts dearly.

[DazeyBlazer]

ya where u place ur bet and every extra +5 +10 +15 has a lot to do with it....but regardless not a very profitable system, i disagree that there is a 14% chance that the fav will win by 1....its higher....

[youngsc]

Went 11-2 and still lost 4%. I know one thing had to do with putting more down on the Bo Sox game and losing that. Haven't crunched the numbers but I think if I had put similar amounts down I would have broke even or been up by 1%. The other has a lot to do with not maximizing the pennies. I'll retry tonight.

Originally Posted by xyz

Where are you placing your bets? I would recommend Matchbook to maximize your odds. In this system, every cent counts dearly.

Right now I'm ashamed to say it but sportsbetting.com absolutely horrible but it's the only one I could load any money on. I looked at matchbook and wsex but haven't had a chance as my bank account is usually reserved for those priorities.

Originally Posted by DazeyBlazer

but regardless not a very profitable system, i disagree that there is a 14% chance that the fav will win by 1....its higher....

The profit margin doesn't concern me as much as long as there is a return. 14% is what I came up with based on numbers from covers. If you would like to crunch the numbers I would welcome the additional info.

[fifawcs]

I think the system shoudl work as follows:
-take the rl and ml only if they both are plus odds
-bet 1 unit on each

It has been very good thus far. Over the past three days there has only been 3 losses.

Im testing it out today.

[chipski]

Originally Posted by chipski

did a quick track on 1 run wins by the fav so far this year..

april > 63 fav wins by 1 run
may > 74 fav wins by 1 run
through june 23rd > 45 fav wins by 1 run

not sure

[Mr Handicapable]

First let me say I haven't checked any numbers but I might limit this system to AL games or Inter-league games w/a DH. NL traditionally use strategies (bunt, etc.) for 1 run games! A team like the Dodgers would seem to kill your strategy by pitching pretty well and not hitting much!

[Mr Handicapable]

Or maybe limit it to the bottom 7 staffs ERA wise in the NL...for instance my Reds have only 7 one/run losses all year!

[youngsc]

^ too much detail^ Funny thing it's the damn Red Sox that have killed me in my efforts the last few times. I'll have to do it virtually for a while as I just withdrew mu funds from Sportbetting.com to open up with Matchbook, hopefully I get my money in a timely manner. Don't have the disposable income right now to load up matchbook. I really do think it has potential for small percentage gains daily but working out the bugs is what I need to do right now. Hopefully doing it virtually wil yield those details.

[CashMoney]

I've been using this system for the last few days on paper plays. I think it can consistantly make a small profit but you do have to lay a lot just to make a few bucks. Not bad.

[xyz]

Originally Posted by youngsc

^ too much detail^ Funny thing it's the damn Red Sox that have killed me in my efforts the last few times. I'll have to do it virtually for a while as I just withdrew mu funds from Sportbetting.com to open up with Matchbook, hopefully I get my money in a timely manner. Don't have the disposable income right now to load up matchbook. I really do think it has potential for small percentage gains daily but working out the bugs is what I need to do right now. Hopefully doing it virtually wil yield those details.

Youngsc, how is the system doing over the past week?

[pico]

i like the system where you bet ml home team and -1.5 away

[youngsc]

It needs revision. I think it has potential but wow the red sox exploited every hole there can be in version 1 of this. I think there still needs to be a degree of capping involved and studying the stats to avoid teams that like to only win by 1 run and that are usually favored, mumbling the ****ing red sox under my voice. Work has been crazy so I haven't had as much time as I would like to put towards it. I'll work on it more and if anyone has ideas let's hear em cause as I said it has potential, small but when compounded is pretty nice returns. The biggest flaw is that if you lose more than 2 of these bets in one night your returns start nose diving. Not sure if maybe there is an exotic bet that would help reduce or offset those losses. I think by version 5 it should be good, lol.

I saw Ganch's post about the -1.5 stats yesterday, maybe there is a way to work that stat into this "system"