[Deke101]

My system took a shit on me.

Monday's plays:

Parlay Angels/Marlins (+214)---Angels good at home, Mets bad on the road, Angels have a much better pitcher on the mound. Mariners are averaging 2.6 runs per game in their last 7. Marlins win 7-4.
Giants -114---Lincecum at home for a good price.
Marlins/Mariners Over 9---Miller is 8-4-2 for Overs. Silva is 7-6-1 for Overs. Both teams hitting terrible lately, hoping they get back to baseball.

Euro Picks:
Germany -1 (-200)
Croatia +170

[slow money]

good picks. Even the Euro picks.

[Deke101]

Angels reasons:

Weaver:
3.05 ERA at home
1.30 WHIP

Pelfrey:
7.20 ERA Away
1.61 WHIP
---Pelfrey has been good lately allowing only 4 runs in his last 3 starts which combined for 21.0 IP. But of these three games, they were against the:

Dodgers: who are last place in the NL for Runs, Home Runs, and 13th of 17 places in Batting average in their last 20 games played.

Padres: who have been hot lately but they are not usually known for their runs scored this season as they are still second from last in batting average even after being in second place for NL batting average in the last 20 games.

Arizona: the game was played at the Mets. And Arizona is not very good on the road. And they are in last place for batting average in the last 20 games with an average of .223. Also in the last 20 games they are the NL's worst with 19 errors, worst with only 3 stolen bases, and second to last with only 31 doubles.

Statfox says:

Play Against
Road teams (NY METS)
with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts against opponent starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest

180-123 over the last 5 seasons.
59.4% (63.8 units)

Also, the Angels haven't had the best stats lately but they are 13-7 in their last 20, and they are 42-28 (21-16 at home) compared to the Mets 33-35 (13-21 on the road). The Mets are 10-10 in their last 20 games.

[Deke101]

Giants Reasons:

All about the pitching match-up. San Francisco's bats are inconsistent, but you can't pass up Lincecum at home at -114, its not like they are playing against a premier team.

Marlins Reasons: Mariners are:

14-22 (-13.5 units) in Home Games
4-12 (-10.0 units) vs. Left-Handed Starters
0-3 (-4.7 units) vs. NL East
12-23 (-7.8 units) as an Underdog
16-31 (-18.7 units) in Night Games

I'll take the Marlins on the road as they are the much better team, and up against a terrible Seattle team.

The Over 9 ---> Marlins should get some runs off of Silva, who is 3-7 with a 5.79 ERA, and only gets 3.32 Strike Outs per 9 and allows 11.57 Hits per 9. If people aren't striking out, people are getting on base. Miller is 4-5 with a 5.22 ERA, and he gets 7.64 Strike Out's per 9, and allows 10.57 hits per 9. Marlins win a double digit scoring game.

Croatia Reasons:

Croatia beat Germany 2-1. Croatia is leading the group with 6 points and Poland is in last place with 1 point. The better team is clearly Croatia, but Croatia has already advanced to the next round, and Poland is fighting for a spot. There is a chance that Croatia will take it easy and rest for the next round as Poland busts their asses to get into the next round, but I'll take the much better team to win at +170.

Germany Reasons: Germany is disputably the best team in this bracket. They need a win to guarantee a spot in the next round. Germany wins 2-0 or 3-1.