[Deke101]

Tonight the Braves face Burke Badenhop, who has a 1-3 record with a 6.75 ERA. Last night the Braves won 7-5 against Florida. The starting pitcher for Florida was Scott Olsen, who started the year great and is much better than Badenhop. The Braves average 5.7 runs scored at home. They have been on a 6 game road trip that accounts for 4.0 runs scored per game in their last 7 games. We all know that the Braves at home vs. the Braves on the road is like night and day. Atlanta is 23-7 at home, and 7-21 on the road. The Braves are glad to be back home, and they just won in good fashion last night with a 2-run walk off home run. Campillo for the Braves has pitched well, but tonight, I hope that his ERA goes up. Back on April 24th, the Braves faced Badenhop in Atlanta. The Braves got to him right away scoring 5 in the bottom of the first, going on to win 7-4. Badenhop through 5.0 innings and didn't have any strike outs. The Braves have faced Badenhop before, and they did not struggle. They know his stuff. The reason that I would want Campillo to give up a few runs tonight is to keep the Braves offense alive. Oftentimes when teams get up by a few runs or are shutting out the other team, they don't care about offense until the game gets closer. To me, this is easy.

The can't lose play tonight is Atlanta Braves Over 4.5 Runs -130. 12* unit play.

[Deke101]

St. Louis burned me last night. I needed them not only to win but atleast get over 4.5 runs, and they didn't. It ruined my night last night, and tonight I'll win all those losings back with this one. I am positive this bet is a winner.

Badenhop has a 6.87 road ERA, and he is going into Atlanta, the 2nd best home field advantage record, behind Boston. Badenhop is Florida's worst Starting Pitcher. An average of 6.33 runs are scored against Florida in games that Badenhop has appeared in.

Anyone have anything to say?

[buztah]

Good luck, Deke.

[Ln2Blaze]

I'm over this play too, so good luck!

[Deke101]

Why is nobody on the Braves tonight?

The Braves are godly at home. They hit .305 at home. The top 11 batters on the Braves roster at home (Which is basically the line-up day in day out) hit great, and the 11th guy on the list is Francoeur who hits .261 at home. The top of the list is Chipper Jones at .439 at home. This is all stuff that you guys know. LAST TIME THEY FACED BADENHOP THEY SCORED 5 IN THE BOTTOM OF THE 1ST INNING, which wins this bet. Badenhop has the worst ERA of the pitchers tonight not counting Dontrelle Willis and Pedro Martinez who both have pitched 3 or less games this year - therefore the ERA is based on a few bad outings. Badenhop has appeared in 9 games, so his 6.75 ERA is legitimate. In those 9 outings, in 7 of those games their opponent has scored 5+. Otherwise, one game was 4 runs scored by the Nationals in Washington, and the other game was 2 runs scored by Milwaukee in Florida. Badenhop's ERA vs. the Braves (from this year) is 10.80...

Come on now guys...am I going to be the only one to cash this play.

[diogee]

Good luck Deke...looks solid to me. Badenhop is a gascan.

[accuscoresucks]

im on atl today like em a lot actually not going to big though
a little juicy but thats what steak burgers are made of

[Deke101]

Originally Posted by accuscoresucks

im on atl today like em a lot actually not going to big though
a little juicy but thats what steak burgers are made of

haha yeah. I don't wanna lay the 180 or whatever it is, and home teams by 2 runs has been pissin me off lately and teams only win by 1 in extras and junk like that. I'm hoping Florida gets some runs so the Braves know they gotta keep hitting and get back in the game and anything that keeps them scoring, but I'm pretty sure this bet is gonna cash in the first five innings while Badenhop is in.

[accuscoresucks]

Originally Posted by Deke101

haha yeah. I don't wanna lay the 180 or whatever it is, and home teams by 2 runs has been pissin me off lately and teams only win by 1 in extras and junk like that. I'm hoping Florida gets some runs so the Braves know they gotta keep hitting and get back in the game and anything that keeps them scoring, but I'm pretty sure this bet is gonna cash in the first five innings while Badenhop is in.

i havent looked at the line lately but im in at -163

its amazing statistics look at that era,and whip i feel good about that

[MyKickerHurts]

Deke i'm all over the HOT HOME-LANTA team of the Braves, amazing home record, they are a must have in a parlay when they are at home. I got you. Good Luck

[Clueless_Norway]

I like the Braves today and might use them in a parlay... How is the chances on the Braves -1.5??

[Deke101]

Originally Posted by Clueless_Norway

I like the Braves today and might use them in a parlay... How is the chances on the Braves -1.5??

Braves WILL score a decent amount of runs tonight, and Campillo has pitched good for the Braves, but he might be due for a bad outing. Campillo won't throw into the 7th unless hes working a no hitter because the most he has thrown is 6.0 innings. Late game runs may come in from both teams so I'm not sure about playing the run line.

[Alry45]

Deke, don't really play any baseball games but I read your post and looked into it and it looked good so im with you on it. Lets cash!

[Clueless_Norway]

Stayed away from the Braves RL, but what u think about the Dodgers RL? I'v placed a bet on them, but I don't like this game at all realy. All the stats are against the Rockies, but they gonna get a win on te road soon and I got a realy bad feeling on this one. Also chosed Jays as the POD cause of Halladay vs Chamberlain, the Yanks pen and the great line..

[Deke101]

Originally Posted by Alry45

Deke, don't really play any baseball games but I read your post and looked into it and it looked good so im with you on it. Lets cash!

Good Luck to us.

[Deke101]

The line for the Over 4.5 runs has moved from -130 to -135 at bodog, I hope thats you guys pushing it that direction. The Braves moneyline is also up to -191.

Braves win 8-3 tonight.

[ryanXL977]

i liked that braveso ver 4.5 but i couldnt fnd it except for 5 runs

[Deke101]

Like I said, the more runs that Campillo gives up the better because now they are down 1-0 and they'll come firing back big.

[Alry45]

chipper 3 run blast! good way to start out! only 2 more.

[Deke101]

3 run homer by Chipper already no outs bottom of the first.

Looking great for whoever it was that said they parlayed Cardinals RL with Braves RL, solid first innings, more game to go obviously but a good headstart.

[ryanXL977]

nice call
EASY MONEY!

[Deke101]

First 4 batters. Single, BB, Homer, BB...haha told ya this Badenhop guy was in for it tonight. Two fly-outs now but a hell of a start, already over halfway there before there were any outs in the game, haha. But can't get our hopes too high, crazy shit happens. I had the Over 7.5 in the Sunday Night baseball mets game and they had 7 runs after 3 innings, then it went 6 scoreless innings.

Heart of the line-up will put another inning together for some runs.

[Deke101]

So far, everything has gone to plan.

Expected Campillo to finally give up some runs tonight.
Wanted the Marlins to keep it close the whole way so the Braves keep hitting.
Braves 3 runs in the first, predicted they would win this bet in the first five innings.
And I also said Badenhop is a puss.

Anyways I'm out for a while. Good Luck guys.

[mtx]

Originally Posted by Deke101

First 4 batters. Single, BB, Homer, BB...haha told ya this Badenhop guy was in for it tonight. Two fly-outs now but a hell of a start, already over halfway there before there were any outs in the game, haha. But can't get our hopes too high, crazy shit happens. I had the Over 7.5 in the Sunday Night baseball mets game and they had 7 runs after 3 innings, then it went 6 scoreless innings.

Heart of the line-up will put another inning together for some runs.

What did you tell us?

[ryanXL977]

nice

[Alry45]

nice win deke. thanks for the play!

[polishkielbasa10]

I think u aholes need to keep your "plays of the day" to your freaking selves. Yet again gonna get burned on this one. Thanks jerk, one of these days I'll learn to trust my own judgement

[ryanXL977]

he nailed it

[awatkins011]

Nice

[polishkielbasa10]

like I said. Good call. By the skin of ur teeth. Lucky

[polishkielbasa10]

my call of the week. Celtics by double digits in first 2. Take it all in 5 unless the ref's say so. Then its 6

[Clueless_Norway]

Originally Posted by Clueless_Norway

Stayed away from the Braves RL, but what u think about the Dodgers RL? I'v placed a bet on them, but I don't like this game at all realy. All the stats are against the Rockies, but they gonna get a win on te road soon and I got a realy bad feeling on this one. Also chosed Jays as the POD cause of Halladay vs Chamberlain, the Yanks pen and the great line..

Think I have too thrust my stomach from now one.. Placed a bet on the Dodgers while my stomach said now.... Got a feeling on the Rockies but went by the numbers and whats the score??? 2-0 Rockies, 4th inning!!!!

[Deke101]

Originally Posted by polishkielbasa10

I think u aholes need to keep your "plays of the day" to your freaking selves. Yet again gonna get burned on this one. Thanks jerk, one of these days I'll learn to trust my own judgement

Numbers were there bud. The numbers pointed at that play more than any other play on the board in my opinion. They went 21 scoreless outs at home, have they even gone that long without scoring at home before this year? Probably not, and yet this play still won. Yeah I had to wait til the 8th for it to win but I was confident from the start. And you should only trust your own judgment. Braves at home vs. the worse pitcher on the board who they had already knocked up last meeting. I was pointing out a solid play, and it was one that I had a big play on, and I shared reasons as to why it was a strong play - isn't that what SBR is for? Next time look it up yourself and decide if you wanna play it.

To those of you that played it with me, congrats, it took some late runs and definitely did not play out how I imagined it would, but a winner none the less. On to Wednesday. I gotta work 11-8 central but I'll still try to get some plays in, probably just in the best bets thread. Or I'll tail St. Andrew.

[mtx]

4.5 was a good number but unfortunately most people got it at 5...good hit, glad you won