[Willie Bee]

2005 Record: 93-69, 2nd in AL Central

There’s reason for optimism in Cleveland. The Dolan’s, GM Mark Shapiro and manager Eric Wedge have done a solid job getting the Indians back into postseason contention ahead of schedule. The team is coming off a solid '05 effort that saw them challenge Chicago for the ALC and fall just shy of the wildcard. With a solid core of established major leaguers 28 or younger, they look like a force to reckon with for this season and beyond. So why would I pick them to slide back a notch or three in the win column this time, you ask?

The reason is they overachieved in 2005, improving by 13 dubya’s from 2004 when they surged up 12 from 2003. You can expect that movement from a team like the Mets who added several top o’ the line free agents the past two winters or a team with 2-3 players back from injury. Neither describes the Indians who are building from within or benefiting now from the youth they smartly traded for.

If a few young pitchers continue to reach new heights, the Indians could certainly ‘overachieve’ again. CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee give them a couple of nice lefties for the rotation. Sabathia has been consistent statistically and could be primed for the same breakout Lee enjoyed in ’05. Lee’s 18 wins last year were due in part to him lopping more than 1.5 off his ERA. But Lee also received the most run support of any Indians pitcher. With the same support in 2004 when he won 14 with a 5.43 ERA, Lee could’ve totaled 18 victories.

Jake Westbrook has been inconsistent and never lived up to his potential. Seeing him round out could be crucial to Cleveland hanging with the White Sox. The Indians signed vets Paul Byrd and Jason Johnson during the winter to orundout the order. Byrd has not put together consecutive healthy seasons, so that’s a concern at his age. Johnson is no spring chicken either, but at least he came more cheaply than had Cleveland kept Scott Elarton, and Johnson should pitch as well if not better.

If any of those arms fail or fall to the DL this season, a good bet since it’s extremely rare for an MLB club to go a season relying on just five starters, the Indians have some youngsters to turn to. Jeremy Sowers, a lefty in the mode of Glavine or Moyer, might be the first called up. Rarely tickles 90 on the gun, but is incredibly consistent with a wide assortment of pitches. Fausto Carmona also has progressed through the system well and could get the call. Adam Miller is less likely for this year but could be a force in the rotation by 2007.

Fully recovered from his 2003 elbow surgery, Bob Wickman turned in a remarkable 2005 campaign as Cleveland’s closer. With a career high 45 saves, 2.47 ERA and an eye-popping .094 RISP average against him, it’s difficult to imagine him repeating those stats in 2006. If Guillermo Mota was 100% he’d be the 8th-inning arm without question. But he’ll have to prove he is back to form in spring. Rafael Betancourt and Fernando Cabrera are relatively unknown, but they could become the primary setup arms if Mota falters. Scott Sauerbeck, who should be fully recovered from his 2004 shoulder surgery, will get the call against tough lefty swingers. Middle relief is up in the air with veterans Danny Graves and Steve Karsay trying to resurrect their careers on the reservation. If just one of them can it will be a blessing. Jason Davis, out of options now and never reaching his hype, could be a critical piece in Cleveland’s 2006 puzzle either by pitching well or being dealt.

There is a lot to like about the offense. Victor Martinez is a stud behind the plate, rebounding from an awful start to finish 2005 with a .305 average and 20 HR. His HR and RBI totals were down from ’05, but he should poke 25 long flies and drive in close to 100 this campaign. His backup job is a battle between veteran Einar Diaz --- who the club once dealt for Travis Hafner --- and Boston castoff Kelly Shoppach.

Hafner is again the DH, resting occasionally opposite the top southpaws. He’s good for 30+ dongs and 100 RBI. He’s also good for nothing in the field.

Jhonny Peralta and Ronnie Belliard give Cleveland adequate defense and better-than-average pop from the SS-2B slots. Peralta really broke loose last season, his first full go in the bigs, and at 23 should have even better seasons to come. The infield corners are a concern with Aaron Boone at third and Ben Broussard at first. Slow starts from either or both would and should mean quick promotions for Andy Marte and Ryan Garko. Lou Merloni and Ramon Vazquez are the primary infield backups.

Leading the outfield is Grady Sizemore in center. The 23-yr-old has 30-30 potential and should be a fixture in Cleveland’s outfield for the next decade. Jason Michaels came over from Philly in an off season deal and should finally get his first chance to play everyday in the majors just in time to celebrate his 30th birthday this May. He doesn’t hit for power and he won’t beat many in a foot race. But he does get on base with regularity. Casey Blake is back in right where he shifted from third last season. Maybe the defensive move caused his offense to sputter and, if he plays another 140+ games, Blake should contribute more than the 58 RBI he did in 2005. Todd Hollandsworth is the top candidate for the #4 outfield role entering spring, but keep an eye out for Jason Dubois and Franklyn Gutierrez, plus promising Brad Snyder on the horizon.

Key Performer(s): Sabathia, Lee and Westbrook. If the Tribe expects to hang with the ChiSox, the rotation’s front end has to get the job done.

Camp Question(s): Sorting the bullpen out behind Wickman and giving young first and third basemen a long hard look.

My Play: Wahoo fans won’t like my projection of 90 wins after the Indians won 93 last year. But if I went by what fans wanted to see every MLB team would have 100-win projections. The o/u line at Pinnacle is currently 90½ and the few pitching concerns have me leaning under.

[bigboydan]

i really do like the tribes chances this year to win this division.

yes i know they lost a few key players, but they are deep enough to still take that AL central division.

[Illusion]

Originally Posted by bigboydan

i really do like the tribes chances this year to win this division.

yes i know they lost a few key players, but they are deep enough to still take that AL central division.

They are the White Sox only compitition, so of course you like their chances. They will be tough, but will fade in the second half.

[bigboydan]

i disagree ILL

i doubt the white sox jump out to a big early lead in that division. i feel this race will be tight all year long.

[Illusion]

Do you like anybody else in the central?

[bigboydan]

ILL, this division is a 2 team race. nobody else in that division has a chance to win it.

[maritime]

White Sox (like the yanks) will be overvalued with inflated lines, especially early season.

[Willie Bee]

Originally Posted by bigboydan

i doubt the white sox jump out to a big early lead in that division. i feel this race will be tight all year long.

I would agree in that it will remain close (4 games) by the time we hit June or so. But if they're healthy, the ChiSo rotation should take over from the All-Star Break on. Even if one of them is unhealthy or traded and McCarthy takes over, their pitching grinds it out.

Indians battle BoSox, Blue Jays, Angels and A's for the wildcard.

[bigboydan]

i think you guys are crazy thinking the white sox staff being that good this year.

vazqez, garland, and contraese will stuggle big time this year. not to mention burhle will not be what he was last year. the only thing that they really improved on was getting rid of marte and vazqez, because those two guys couldn't pitch for shit comming out of the pen last year.

[Illusion]

Originally Posted by bigboydan

i think you guys are crazy thinking the white sox staff being that good this year.

vazqez, garland, and contraese will stuggle big time this year. not to mention burhle will not be what he was last year. the only thing that they really improved on was getting rid of marte and vazqez, because those two guys couldn't pitch for shit comming out of the pen last year.

You are crazy for thinking Clevelands staff is better. Get real!!! You claim you know baseball, huh.

[bigboydan]

there you go again ILL. your thinking like a homer.

on paper the sox have a better staff, but you just watch what happens this year with that stud staff the sox have. maybe if you did some homework you would see it.

[Illusion]

You keep flapping your jaw, but in the end say nothing. I'll ask again in bold, who on Clevelands staff is better than anyone on Sox staff? Remember, the Sox have five aces. Go ahead and post your fluff answer because everone with a brain on this board knows you can't answer the question. Go ahead and diodge the question.

[Illusion]

No answer from the man. I am stunned.

[bigboydan]

ILL, when those pitchers i mentioned above get lit up like a christmas tree this year. i'm really gonna rip your team

[Illusion]

Originally Posted by bigboydan

ILL, when those pitchers i mentioned above get lit up like a christmas tree this year. i'm really gonna rip your team

You mentioned NOTHING!!!! Quit dodging the question. Who on Cleveland is better? (this will be the 3rd time asking)

[bigboydan]

Well lets see... CC for one.

whats his "LIFETIME RECORD" against the white sox 10-1

[Illusion]

Originally Posted by bigboydan

Well lets see... CC for one.

whats his "LIFETIME RECORD" against the white sox 10-1

Third times the charm. Ok, please name four others now since the Sox are stacked.

BTW everybody, since it took him this long to come up with CC don't expect an answer anytime soon.

[bigboydan]

cliff lee is another one ILL.

[Illusion]

He wouldn't even be our fifth starter, try again.

[bigboydan]

oh thats right ILL. i forgot you have those two aces in vaquez and contraese. oh ya and lets not forget that one year wonder in garland. btw, what did garland ever do before last year. i'll tell ya not a fvcking thing!!

[Illusion]

Contreras is the main reason we won the series last year. Yes, he was shit at the start of the year, but he was a super stud the second half. Even an average Garland is better than whoever is Clevelands third best pitcher.

[bigboydan]

i guess we shall see when it's all said and done this year won't we will

[Illusion]

Let's settle this now, how about a wager. I will take the Sox and you can have everyone else. Whatever stakes you want, sound good?

[bigboydan]

ok, you lay the -115 and, for how much. will let bill hold the money too.

[Illusion]

Fine, for 3 dimes, but I want $200 per game the Sox win the central by. I will give you $200 additional per game if I lose.

[bigboydan]

you got bet. make sure bill has the money on monday or just stop running you mouth about your white sox you homer.

[Illusion]

We could send it to looker also. It doesn't matter to me.

[bigboydan]

i don't know about sending it to looker this time. he tried to keep 10% last time if you remember

[presley177]

Originally Posted by bigboydan

ok, you lay the -115 and, for how much. will let bill hold the money too.

geeze i wanna get in on this bet too. Dan is giving away free money!

[bigboydan]

i don't think it's going to be as easy as people think presely. i think people are taking the tribe that seriously this year considering the division there playing in.

[onlòóker]

Originally Posted by bigboydan

he tried to keep 10% last time if you remember

Man, you seem surprised about a handling fee. But I was just joking, and wanted to see what you guys would say about it.

Its not going to be so easy for the Sox this season, everyone on their staff had a great season last year. Will be hard to match that. I like the Indians to challenge them. Should be a close race to the end of the season.

[Willie Bee]

It's tough for any one player to repeat solid numbers from season to season, much less an entire staff. So it is easy to suggest that the ChiSox rotation won't be as good this time as they were in '05.

But I also think it's a no-brainer that they are better, on paper, than any other rotation top-to-bottom in the AL Central, possibly the entire AL or MLB. Vazquez probably scares me more than anyone else on the staff right now. But they do have McCarthy to fall back on if one arm stumbles.

Every staff is critical to their team's hopes in the coming season, another no-brainer. Besides great starting pitching, however, the White Sox' success in 2005 came by virtue of winning the close games. The starters played a heavy role in that, mostly because they pitched deep into the games. But winning the close ones is also a sign of a good bullpen effort and being opportunistic on offense.

[Illusion]

Another x factor for the Sox is gonna be the health of Scott Podsednick. Hr tailed off at the end of last year, but he looks like his old self thusfar during spring training.

[Alamorich]

Hey. I know I'm late but I'm reporting for SBR Gamblers Spring Training Camp. Sox won a lot of one run games last year..don't have the figures in front of me just going from what I remember. Sox had several players have career years at the same time which is what it takes to win a championship in any sport. Contreras can go back to being a bum real quick plus the Sox will be a marked team. We all know how hard it is to repeat. I can see the Chisox slopping through the season in a bad division real easy.

[bigboydan]

thats what i've been trying to tell everyone rich, but they call me stupid over it.

they won roughly 40 games by 1 run last year, and alotof those players had career years. there is no way there gonna have another year like that this year. the luck will not be there this year like it was last year.