[stingyrivers]

Here we go again... thanks again for picking it up and starting the thread yesterday Phan.... it was a great day yesterday as scoreless 1st innings were 12-3 on the day, hopefully today will follow suit as it is a lot of 2 starters in the staffs going....

Here are the numbers for the 5 day games, i will post the numbers for the night games in the afternoon, again for new lurkers, the set-up is pitchers name-1st innings pitched/Runs allowed.... the first set after the name is career and the second set is 2008 season, all these guys have one start on the year so far:



Phi/Cinn

Hamels 51/26 1/0

Arroyo 159/88 1/1


---- these numbers are fairly solid, the only real concern is arroyo gave up a run in the first in his first effort this year, so to start the day not something that looks like a near lock, but nonetheless a fairly solid chance of a scoreless first


Cubs/Pitt

Lilly 195/97 1/1

Gorzelanny 44/19 1/1


----- this one is troublesome because although the career numbers arent too bad, they both got touched up in the first in their first outing this year, if i remember correctly lilly got smashed on his first pitch of the game for a leadoff homer, but then got three consecutive easy outs... another one, that is tough to pull the trigger on, but as far as matchups we've seen a lot worse this year


Sea/Balt

Silva 125/64 1/0

Cabrera 116/73 1/1


----- this series has been great for this bet, i think i have cashed twice in this series alone on scoreless firsts Silva looks extremely solid to get out of the first without a run, the major concern here is Cabrera, so another one that has it's concerns


SD/SF

Maddux 707/358 1/1

Cain 70/33 1/0


----- this game seems pretty solid, Cain is generally lights out early in the game, question is how much gas does maddux have left in the tank, and he did give up a run in his opener, the other thing about this one is i expect the juice to be pretty high in the -140 to -150 range


Minn/Wsox

Blackburn ---- 1/0

Vazquez 320/162 1/0


----- this one seems really solid, no career numbers for Blackburn because he is a reliever turned starter this year, but he had a scoreless first inning in his first start... always scary to take this one with teams like the whitesox and their potent lineup, but based on the pitching numbers, seems solid enough to take



there are the first 5 games of the day that lead up to the night games.... nothing that really sticks out like a great bet, hopefully the night match-ups will make up for it.....

Here's to another profitable day with this bet, haven't tallied it yet, but i am pretty sure close to 70% of all games have had a scoreless first inning on the young season....

Let's cash again today guys!!

[stingyrivers]

ok, because i was curious and because it should be kept track of if i am going to do this right and all season long, i tallied the results on the season so far:

scoreless firsts are 51-41 on the season.... not really even close to 70%, but if we continue to find a way to shave out some of those losses, i think 60 plus % can be hit with these on the season

[BigOrangeTitans]

Usually pitchers of quality bounce back in their next start, so one bad outting doesnt make anything a no play. A losing streak is another thing...

[CashMoney]

I'm loving PHI/CIN. Arroyo didn't face the Phillies last year but looking at his box score from last year I found that in 33 starts he gave up a run in the 1st only 9 times or 27% of the time.

Hamels numbers from last year are statistically worse at 29% but he did pitch a scoreless 1st in his only start against the Reds.

Here we have two pitchers who throw a scoreless 1st inning over 70% of the time. I think this is a pretty safe play. I'm in on this one.

[CashMoney]

Cubs/Pitt

Lilly - Scoreless 1st 72%
Against Pitt 2007 3 Starts 2 Scoreless 1 with a run

Gorzelany - Scoreless 1st 74%
Against Cubs 2007 2 Starts 2 Scoreless 1 with a run

Still up in the air on this one.

[accuscoresucks]

4-1 yesterday with this,props saved my loosing card yesterday


today i have
phi/cnn -120
cbs/ptt -110
sd/sf -125


gl guys

[CashMoney]

Originally Posted by accuscoresucks

4-1 yesterday with this,props saved my loosing card yesterday


today i have
phi/cnn -120
cbs/ptt -110
sd/sf -125


gl guys

Yeah I like SD/SF as well. GL

[dannyt76]

Out of the 5 day games the only one that I'm really comfortable with is the SD/SF game. Not only because both pitchers are good, but both teams haven't been scoring many runs so far. GL.

[chinodeft26]

i'm on cubs/pit 110 and phi/cin -120 with a lean on the m's/bal -105

[EaglesPhan36]

I think a way to maximize your profits on this 1st inning thing ... take the ones that stingy points out have great #s going in favor of a NO SCORE. But if there are ones that look atrocious, don't be afraid to pull the trigger on a YES SCORE. I did this a couple times last week and ca$hed.

As for the early ones, hard to take the CIN-PHI one even with great pitchers ... all 3 games in the series have had 1st inning scores. Waiting to see lineups.

I actually like the NO with Cubs/Pirates. Both offenses have yet to score in the 1st this season. Both pitchers have decent success vs. opposition.

[treece]

can someone explain to me what these numbers mean?

Phi/Cinn

Hamels 51/26 1/0

Arroyo 159/88 1/1

[stingyrivers]

what's up guys, hopefully a long day of cashing these tickets ahead....

treece,

the way the numbers are posted is this:

Phi/Cinn

Hamels 51 1st inn pitched/26 runs allowed (career) - 1 1st inning pitched/0 runs allowed (2008 season)

[OLGC_Slayer]

Id be careful with that Cincy/Philly game. Either one of those teams top 3 or 4 hitters could easily hit a dinger

[CashMoney]

Rollins...lead off homer. 0-1 on the day thus far.

[OLGC_Slayer]

I should have said something earlier. Sorry.

[CashMoney]

I should have known better. Still thinking about the Cubs and Pirates. Any thoughts guys??

[treece]

its ok time to double up on the cubs pirates.

[accuscoresucks]

Originally Posted by treece

can someone explain to me what these numbers mean?

Phi/Cinn

Hamels 51/26 1/0

Arroyo 159/88 1/1

hamels 51 innings pitched /giving up 26 runs/ 1-0 for 08 season

someone correct me if im wrong

[OLGC_Slayer]

Both Lilly and Gorzelanny have had pretty good success against the other team. Lilly can give up a bad dinger every once in awhile but its definitely a better wager than Philly/Cincy.

San Diego/San Fran is the only one that I think is a "lock" but the juice on that must be pretty high.

[CashMoney]

Originally Posted by accuscoresucks

hamels 51 innings pitched /giving up 26 runs/ 1-0 for 08 season

someone correct me if im wrong

51 Innings Career in which he gave up 26 runs in total. Last year he gave up a 1st inning run in 8 of 28 starts.

Arroyo looked good but he normally pitches a light's out 1st or gets lit up as the 3-0 Philly lead in the 1st is showing.

[OLGC_Slayer]

Atlanta/Colorado. Going to be a cold, cold night in Denver tonight. Could be a good bet.

[CashMoney]

Originally Posted by treece

its ok time to double up on the cubs pirates.

I'm with you

[treece]

Originally Posted by OLGC_Slayer

Both Lilly and Gorzelanny have had pretty good success against the other team. Lilly can give up a bad dinger every once in awhile but its definitely a better wager than Philly/Cincy.

San Diego/San Fran is the only one that I think is a "lock" but the juice on that must be pretty high.

well if you win theres no juice. thats what jj said in his video.

[OLGC_Slayer]

Not trying to fade you guys or anything but Ted Lilly used to really struggle in the 1st when he was with the Jays.
Last year in Pittsburgh in his first appearance he gave up 3 runs, 2nd appearance was a 1 run 8 inning outing.
Still he is a good pitcher and so is Gorzelanny. I hope you guys win it.

[stingyrivers]

these bets will heat up, just gotta be patient... BOT made a great point the other day that this bet typically heats up in the later games as the pitchers have had all day for their arms to loosen up..... i am gonna go small on cubbies/bucks with ya... let's see if we can get this ball rolling.... Lilly gave up first pitch dinger last game, but then mowed em down 123 after that

[EaglesPhan36]

**** the juice on the Cubs/Pirates just went to -155. Gonna have to pass even though I think the NO SCORE is a winner.....

Nooo ... back to -135, so I am in. Derek Lee is the key out to get & Lilly needs to keep the Pirates lead-off man off base.

[CashMoney]

Was sweating this one out but congrats fellas

[chinodeft26]

good win on the cubs/pit game fellas

[treece]

wow -155 thats alot, i got -110. it was -105 a few minutes before i bet it so i hurried and hit it at -110. well no runs in the first.

[OLGC_Slayer]

Congrats on Pitt/Cubbies.

[stingyrivers]

what's everyone's true feel on the balt/sea game? I like it, but might be a bit biased because i cashed on this series twice so far this week?? I think the only real danger for a run is by the mariners

[CashMoney]

Originally Posted by stingyrivers

what's everyone's true feel on the balt/sea game? I like it, but might be a bit biased because i cashed on this series twice so far this week?? I think the only real danger for a run is by the mariners

Cabrera scares me to death. When he's on he's on but when he's off he is horrible. He was got lit against the Rays in his 1st start. My gut is telling me to stay away from it but I'm greedy.

[chinodeft26]

silva looked good in his last start and if cabrera doesn't walk anyone in the 1st, it should be a win. but that is one giant if. granted this might not matter because the m's don't take walks tho.

[stingyrivers]

there is always my scoreless 1st with a hedge play, but that actually just adds risk to if the O's score a run....

1 unit scoreless first

1 unit Mariners lead after first

[CashMoney]

Cabrera was scored on 13 times in 34 starts last year. In three games against the M's he blanked them once, gave up 1 run and gave up 3 runs.

I may make a play that a run will be scored on this one but again my gut is telling me to stay far away.