[stingyrivers]

ok.... here we go..... six opportunites to cash today, which games are most likely to go scoreless in the first.... be back with the numbers for the first game (chi/det) soon....

this thread had an awesome start yesterday.... let keep it going and cash today guys

[CashMoney]

I'm really up in the air on this one. Contreras and Robertson have both pitched against eachother in the last 2 seasons and 1 run was scored in the 2 games in the 1st inning. Robertson normally doesn't give up a run against the ChiSox (I thinks it's twice) but Contreras has been a bit worried. I think Contreras is 50/50 that he will but then again Detroit us struggling on offense. Totally confused on this one.

[stingyrivers]

what's up cashmoney,

ok here is what we are looking at for career numbers:

Contreras 132 inn/72 runs

Robertson 134 inn/57 runs

those arent bad numbers from what we saw yesterday....

it is a scary game to start things off though because of the potential of both lineups... you know the tiger bats are going to errupt eventually, and Renteria has started off hot, one thing ya dont want for a scoreless first is a leadoff hitter that is very likely to get on base.....

still, i might do this, bet scoreless first and hedge it with detroit leading after the first.... that way we are essentially betting that chicago doesn't score in the first....

[stingyrivers]

also.... i am a ML Parlay kind of guy, and have shyed away from them in baseball because of the high percentage of time big favs lose,....

but.... Detroit/Milwaukee looks like a pretty ML Parlay to start the day as well

[CashMoney]

I'm kewl...that was awesome yesterday. I didn't place any bets on 1st inning plays yesterday but was following along. Congrats on hitting on the Yanks and Braves yesterday.

Here's some interesting info looking at Contreras #'s

Last year he had 32 Starts. In those 32 starts he gave a run in the 1st inning 14 times but didn't give up a run 18 times. 56% of the time he didn't give up a run. However, he had 3 starts against the Tigers and gave up a run in the 1st inning 2 times in 3 games for 67%

Robertson on the other hand in 30 Starts pitched a scoreless
1st Inning 25 times or 83% of the time. He also pitched against the ChiSox twice last year and threw a scoreless 1st both times.

KaidenDager brought up a good point yesterday and I totally misunderstood. Looking at a guys career 1st innings pitched versus the amount of runs scored is deceptive in that I guy Like Robertson seems throw a scoreless 1st 57% of the time but all that really shows is a ratio of how may runs to innings pitched.

Looking at Robertsons box scores from last year I actually found that he threw a scoreless inning 83% of the time and 100% of the time against he ChiSox. I think we should way more heavily on the amount of actual times a pitcher throws a scoreless first.

I'm still up in the air on the Tigers and ChiSox. What are your thoughts?

Now my problem is I'm not sure to way more heavily on Conteras' states against the Tigers or for the year. He's #'s make me nervous. What's your feeling on this 1?

[CashMoney]

Originally Posted by stingyrivers

also.... i am a ML Parlay kind of guy, and have shyed away from them in baseball because of the high percentage of time big favs lose,....

but.... Detroit/Milwaukee looks like a pretty ML Parlay to start the day as well

I love ML parlays as well but am 0-3 to start the season. The D-Backs screwed me yesterday.

[stingyrivers]

yeah, robertson looks real solid to get out of the first, but contreras is 50/50 probably, the next thing to look at would be the first three hitters of detroit lineup career stats vs. contreras.....

or i am heavily leaning toward doing this: 2 Bets

1.1* Scoreless first at -110

1.4* Detroit leading after the first at -140


that way we are betting that chicago don't score against robertson..... if its a scoreless first we win the first bet and push the second bet.....

if detroit scores against contreras, we lose the first bet, but basically push because we win the second bet.....

the only way we really lose is if Chicago scores against robertson, then we would lose both bets, but we got the numbers strongly on our side....

what do you think?

[CashMoney]

I'm confused....if we bet that Detroit is leading after the 1st at -140 and the score is 0-0 wouldn't that be a lose as opposed to a push?

[stingyrivers]

no it would be a push, cause it would be tied.... but you make a good point, becuase i dont know 100% that's how it is looked at.... but i was guessing the bet is canceled because neither team is leading, let me check on that

[stingyrivers]

yup at the greek, it says if the game is tied after 1 there is no action... so we can use it as a hedge just in case detroit scores to spoil the scoreless first

[CashMoney]

Not sure whose leading off for the Tigers today as Granderson is still hurt but here's career #'s for the Tigers #'2 2-5

2. Polanco .333 9 for 27 with 2 2B 0 SO
3. Sheffield .250 2 for 8 with 1 BB 2 SO
4. Ordonez .235 8 for 34 with 2 2B 2 HR 8 RBI 4 BB 3 SO
5. Guillen .441 15 for 34 1 3B 3 HR 9 RBI 7 BB 1 SO

[savman]

fwiw, I saw where the start of the Detroit game might be delayed because of rain.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think you just play these blindly as "no scores" ... it's really just a 50-50 prop when you come right down to it. Some pitching match-ups might be better, etc. ... but for these bets, one mistake = HR and a loss. I think outside opening day, the no scores have hit at least 60%.

[stingyrivers]

good info there cashmoney....

thanks for the info savman, was thinking rain was an issue, kinda makes me lean toward the scoreless first more....

Renteria has been leading off for detroit for granderson, and has started off somewhat hot in first two games....

interesting numbers definitely indicates we would want a 123, if it gets to ordonez and guillen, a run is very likely

[stingyrivers]

yeah eaglesphan, no scores so far is topping 60% this season too

[CashMoney]

Renteria has never faced Contreras. I don't have the lead after 1st inning wager option with my SB. Tried to open at the Greek but couldn't find a way to fund.

[CashMoney]

I think I'm in on the scoreless first. The weather shoudl suck and Detroit is struggling on the offense. In addition, Sheffield might not play due to his finger. I thing he's a game time decision. Just not sure hoe much to place at this point.

[savman]

yeah, I saw that too, that Sheffield might be out.

The only thing with these plays is it's an action play. So if your stud pitcher pulls his left one in warmups and they replace him with a not so good pitcher then your play stands and you lose your advantage.

But I'm riding along with ya' on this one. Love the cold stinging weather in baseball for unders.

[CashMoney]

Originally Posted by savman

yeah, I saw that too, that Sheffield might be out.

The only thing with these plays is it's an action play. So if your stud pitcher pulls his left one in warmups and they replace him with a not so good pitcher then your play stands and you lose your advantage.

But I'm riding along with ya' on this one. Love the cold stinging weather in baseball for unders.

Starting pitchers must start on my plays or it's no action.

[stingyrivers]

yeah me too at the greek , its listed pitchers....

ok yeah, i am in too on scoreless first, seems more likely than a score with robertson pitching, detroit struggling and poor weather....

i wouldnt go too big on it cashmoney, remember there is a long day ahead with 5 more chances to cash after this one starts....

best way to fund the greek is western union, that's how i did it....

let's go and start this day off right, 2 goose eggs in the boxscore in detroit

[stingyrivers]

lol wow.... it moved to +100 for scoreless first at the greek

[chinodeft26]

yea i just got it at +100

[OLGC_Slayer]

Stros and Cubs might be a good play. Nice numbers on both starters.

[EaglesPhan36]

I got the NO for the Sox & Tigs at -105. 5 out of 6 games between the two with scoreless firsts ... it's either a trend or a score is due.

[stingyrivers]

yeah both games at 2pm est look pretty solid for scoreless firsts

[betplom]

Originally Posted by stingyrivers

lol wow.... it moved to +100 for scoreless first at the greek

I played it at those odds @Greek myself.

[CashMoney]

I'm in on the ChiSox/Tigers and Cubbies/Astros. I think I'm staying away from the Giants and Brew Crew mainly because of Jonathan Sanchez....awful #'s.

[betplom]

Also took this prop:

0 to 1 home runs for game +195 (Centrebet).

[stingyrivers]

little nervous now, they pulled up guillen to fill in the 3 hole for sheffield, numbers are against there....

[OLGC_Slayer]

Why the hell is Nick Swisher leading off for the Sox?

[stingyrivers]

wow, bad decision by 2b there, we are in trouble

[CashMoney]

1st and 2nd 0 Outs. Why do I do it to myself?

[CashMoney]

Bet losed....Phuckin knew it!!! Oh well, hopefully next one comes in.

[savman]

wellll, we broke even on the play...no worries.

[buztah]

Bases loaded and nobody out. Sorry, guys. You need a miracle. If this doesn't work out, it's not the end of the world. You have two solid True Lion Sports plays on which you can chase. Wishing you all the best.

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