04-03-08, 01:26 PM
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#71
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well... we're screwed.... i guess it was staring us right in the face
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04-03-08, 01:27 PM
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#72
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damn ryan dumpster straight to hell
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04-03-08, 01:27 PM
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#73
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sorry guys.... gotta work out a system before just start arbitrarily taking these bets... my bad
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04-03-08, 01:29 PM
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#74
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not looking good....2nd and 3rd with 0 out.
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04-03-08, 01:31 PM
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#75
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yeah... i guess i was trying to ride the hot streak into the ground today... the red flags were blaring before this one started, probably shoulda laid off especially seeing as there is a real solid one right around the corner with the astros/padres.... of course after that debacle he goes 123 with ease, always the way
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04-03-08, 01:35 PM
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#76
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stingyrivers
yeah... i guess i was trying to ride the hot streak into the ground today... the red flags were blaring before this one started, probably shoulda laid off especially seeing as there is a real solid one right around the corner with the astros/padres.... of course after that debacle he goes 123 with ease, always the way
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I was looking at Wolf's numbers. 208 1st innings and 130 runs given up meaning 63% of the time he gets scored on in the 1st inning. Looking at the pitching matchups today, I can't seem to come across anything that seems to be a lock.
I think I'm going to hold off on 1st inning plays today at look at the matchups for tomorrow. |
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04-03-08, 01:38 PM
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#77
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hmm... chacon's numbers dont look too good in first innings, now i am a little crossed up, definitely got burned by going against the numbers in the cubs game
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04-03-08, 01:39 PM
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#78
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yeah, good point, that kind of was the overall idea of the thread was to pinpoint select matchups that make it a very solid play.... both wood and chacon dont have good first inning histories
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04-03-08, 01:52 PM
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#79
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I like the system and think this will be a huge money maker for the MLB season. I also think it will get easier a month or two into the season. Hopefully, they'll be some solid plays tomorrow.
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04-03-08, 02:18 PM
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#80
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yeah definitely onto something here guys....
the greek just switched their max play on this prop bet from 500 to 300, i mean they just switched it in the last few hours.... make of that what you will
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04-03-08, 02:34 PM
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#81
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I think that means we're soon to be in the $$$$$$$$$$$$$$
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04-03-08, 02:52 PM
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#82
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i hope so....
definitely gotta go by the numbers though and stay away from pitchers with bad 1st inning histories.... chacon just got shelled when he was one out away from the scoreless first....
if we work out the system on this, we definitely will win way more than we lose
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04-03-08, 02:52 PM
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#83
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Chacon gave up 2 runs in the 1st.
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04-03-08, 03:09 PM
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#84
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looking over the numbers, it might be a night to bet on runs in the first in the three games tonight:
Duke 67 inn/57 runs
v.
Hampton 321 inn/154 runs
McGowan 37 inn/30 runs
v.
Hughes 13 inn/8 runs
Sonnanstine 22 inn/11 runs
v.
Traschel 409 inn/196 runs
all seem kind of high, who knows maybe even the best pitchers in the league have a 3 to 1 ratio or something like that....
but also we are in the middle of the rotations for teams with todays games, so probably a much better bet when the 1 and 2's of the staffs come around again....
huh, maybe this bet works best in a cycle type of approach, when MLB staffs are pitching their 1 and 2 starters bet no runs, and on 3 4 5 starters start betting runs in the first.... pretty interesting, and should be fun to figure this out
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04-03-08, 03:13 PM
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#85
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yeah, as weird as this sounds, i think a 2 to 1 ratio of innings to runs is actually on the better side for pitchers in 1st innings, to test it, i looked up johan santana and he is:
175 inn/82 runs....
so i guess, a matchup between pitchers that have given up runs in half or less of their first innings is somewhat solid
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04-03-08, 03:16 PM
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#86
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ok, maybe it is more like a 3 -1 ratio, Clemens on his career was 706 inn to 266 runs
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04-03-08, 03:18 PM
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#87
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Greek definitely changed the max wager just today, and they also shifted their lines on these bets pretty quickly.
I dont know if they have someone monitoring this, or just saw the influx in these bets, but they def made some changes inb this area.
I liek the idea of betting for no runs with the 1 and 2 pitcher matchups, and betting for runs with the 3,4,5 pitcher matchups.
From what I am looking at a pitcher who is under 50% is solid play in this bet. If both starters are under 50%, then a real strong bet. (lines will probaly reflect this though)
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04-03-08, 03:55 PM
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#88
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they definitely moniter these sites....
when the NCAA tourney started they put a prop bet out that all the 1 2 3 seeds win their first round games yes +100 No -120
as soon as they posted that i hit this site and told a bunch of guys in the NCAA forum that it was a huge lock at + odds and literally within minutes of my post they changed the odds to -120 that they all win in first round.... and i mean that whole thing was in the course of 20 minutes from them posting the line to my posts to them moving the line against us, and this was at 3 in the am eastern time, it wasnt like they were getting huge volume on it at that time
they moniter these posts and change lines accordingly.... the problem they got is that today wasn't the greatest day for scoreless first innings, so it puts them in a tough spot on where to set future lines, which is why they probably lowered the max bet, them setting these lines no matter how on top of it they are the lines on this will always be soft and there in lies the profit opportunity....
i know they switched the max bet on this during the course of this thread today because yesterday and right up to this morning it was 500 and then just before the start of the astros/pads game it was changed to 300
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04-03-08, 04:29 PM
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#89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stingyrivers
ok, maybe it is more like a 3 -1 ratio, Clemens on his career was 706 inn to 266 runs
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Sure but Clemens was a freak of nature of whatever you want to call him. I think a 2-1 ratio would work well. Looking forward to making some money with you guys.  |
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04-03-08, 04:45 PM
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#90
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Just reading through and its an interesting bet. I agree that betting no runs on the 1,2 and yes runs on the 5 could potentially be good at even or slight juice. the 3,4 spots could be tricky.
One other observation: If a pitcher has 100 innings and 50 runs does not necessarily mean that he allows a run in the first inning 50% of the time. He could give up 4 runs anytime he allows 1 (in fact it is likely that 2 runs would score in one inning as opposed to 1 and 1) thus giving him a 12.5%.
I'll keep reading on this though, I like the thought process.
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04-03-08, 04:59 PM
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#91
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let's test the theory about monitoring this sites.... the best match-up tonight is balt v TB.... and oddly enough it has the best odds for scoreless 1st at +100....
this probably will be my only play on these three games, although slight lean toward scoreless play in tor/nyy, but if anything, based on the numbers the balt/tb game is probably the only play based on historical projection of the odds of a scoreless 1st
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04-03-08, 05:01 PM
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#92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KaidenDager
Just reading through and its an interesting bet. I agree that betting no runs on the 1,2 and yes runs on the 5 could potentially be good at even or slight juice. the 3,4 spots could be tricky.
One other observation: If a pitcher has 100 innings and 50 runs does not necessarily mean that he allows a run in the first inning 50% of the time. He could give up 4 runs anytime he allows 1 (in fact it is likely that 2 runs would score in one inning as opposed to 1 and 1) thus giving him a 12.5%.
I'll keep reading on this though, I like the thought process.
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The innings we're referring to is actually the amount of 1st innnings pitched not the total amount of innings a pitcher has thrown in his career.  |
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04-03-08, 05:13 PM
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#93
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wow guys!!!!
10 minutes after i posted that play.... the greek pulled it off the board completely!!!!!!!
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04-03-08, 05:14 PM
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#94
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i am not making this up.... they pulled the all prop bets on the TB Balt game off the board!!
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04-03-08, 05:18 PM
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#95
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LOL....
i didn't get the play in, but that's stupid that they did that because even though historically the numbers indicate a scoreless first, it's just as likely for a run to be scored in that game because the rays and o's both suck.... in both games this year there was at least one run in the first, mostly because of the shitty defense in the game moreso than the pitching
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04-03-08, 05:19 PM
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#96
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stingyrivers
i am not making this up.... they pulled the all prop bets on the TB Balt game off the board!!
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TB/BAL got rained out mate  my big play today. |
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04-03-08, 05:20 PM
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#97
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CashMoney
The innings we're referring to is actually the amount of 1st innnings pitched not the total amount of innings a pitcher has thrown in his career. |
Ah, my mistake I misread the stats. I'll go back to silently reading. |
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04-03-08, 05:20 PM
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#98
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i garuntee you IF it comes back on the board before the first pitch the scoreless first option will have gone from +100 to -130
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04-03-08, 05:23 PM
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#99
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oh, lol, rainout would explain it.... just looked weird without knowing about the rainout....
no feel free to contribute here Kaidan.... i think i got you drift about innings v. run doesnt indicate a percentage of innings runs were scored.... we want everyone to contribute here and help each other cash tickets.... so far we got one hell of a crew forming here to work out the kinks with this play....
that sucks about the rainout i was gonna hit that first inning bet somewhat hard
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04-03-08, 05:27 PM
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#100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stingyrivers
i am not making this up.... they pulled the all prop bets on the TB Balt game off the board!!
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If it weren't for KaidenDager's post I would have started thinking consipracy theories 
Any thoughts on the last 2 games of the day. I'm personally staying away but wondering if anyone has any plays going.
__________________
#27 = NEW YORK YANKEES - 2009 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
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04-03-08, 05:38 PM
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#101
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lol, me too, i feel stupid...
tonight's 2 games, i feel are not great plays, i went small on both scoreless innings, but the numbers dont look too good... the juice flipped bigtime on the braves game, went from -110 on scoreless 1st to +110.... probably because Hampton is pitching and hasn't pitched in the bigs since 2005....
someone must have went big on a run in the first....
sets it up where if there is no score in the 1st in the braves game (big if i guess) then it doesnt matter what happens with Yanks, a profit is secured
Yanks/Jays -115
Braves/bucs +110
so we'll see what happens....
again, the numbers in these games do not favor a scoreless first, and neither does the feel of either of these games, just seems like high scoring potential to me in both
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04-03-08, 05:42 PM
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#102
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GL on both plays....check you all out tomorrow. I'm heading home to watch my boys beat the living crap out of the Blue Jays.
__________________
#27 = NEW YORK YANKEES - 2009 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
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04-03-08, 05:45 PM
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#103
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lol, cool...
i will start a new thread tomorrow to work through the day's games with this play....
have a good one bro
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04-03-08, 06:16 PM
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#104
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I'm going to start betting these with small bets just for fun and to see how it goes.
I think if we work the kinks out on this it actually could be a great bet.
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04-03-08, 06:17 PM
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#105
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Padres/Dodgers no score first inning tomorrow..
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Linear Mode
