1. #1
    Willie Bee
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    Thursday's Front Page Plays (July 19)

    Reds to stay hot as big dogs at Florida

    07/19/2007 06:40 AM
    By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

    The Reds just swept the Braves in Atlanta, and they are now 8-3 in their last 11 games. Conversely, the Marlins have struggled at home this season, and they have failed miserably in supporting tonight’s starter Sergio Mitre. Add in the fact that Cincinnati is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Florida, and all signs point to an upset.

    The Cincinnati Reds and Florida Marlins are two teams heading in opposite directions, and the Reds offer tremendous value as a +150 underdog in this spot.

    Cincinnati is coming off of a three-game road sweep of the Braves in Atlanta, making the Reds 8-3 in their last 11 games overall. They have also enjoyed the Florida sunshine in the past, going 11-4 in the last 15 head-to-head meetings with the Marlins in Miami.

    Now their starter Matt Belisle has been erratic while going 5-6 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. However, he has had some nice performances this year, such as his last start vs. the New York Mets last Saturday where he allowed just one run in seven innings of an unfortunate 2-1 loss. In fact, that marked the third time in Belisle’s last five road starts that he allowed exactly one earned run while pitching at least six innings!

    On the other hand, the Marlins just dropped two out of three here at home to the previously struggling St. Louis Cardinals. Florida had high expectations entering this season, but instead they have been one of the worst home bets in baseball, going 20-28 for -10.35 units in their own stadium! The Marlins have simply not produced enough offensively at home, averaging 4.56 runs per game while hitting a modest .256 as a team, including .250 vs. right-handed pitching.

    Marlin starter Sergio Mitre has been a bright spot in the rotation with an amazing 2.81 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. However, that has translated to just a 4-4 record, and the Fish actually have a losing 7-9 record in all of his starts this year. Moreover, they are a dismal 2-9 in Mitre’s last 11 home starts going back to last year.

    We look for Mitre’s bad luck to continue tonight, not to mention Florida’s lethargic play at home and Cincinnati’s resurgence on the road. Add this all up, and the Marlins look like a fine play at +150 in this spot.

    Free Pick: Reds +150

  2. #2
    Willie Bee
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    Take Tigers to top Twins

    Game Time: 07/19/2007 01:10 PM -
    By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

    Following up on their solid 2006 season as Cinderella, Detroit is tearing it up as one of the AL's top clubs this season. Look for the Tigers to finish their road sweep of the Twins this afternoon.

    Our Thursday afternoon MLB selection is on the Detroit Tigers with Jeremy Bonderman on the mound. Bonderman is having his best season ever during a year when so many starters in the American League -- Josh Beckett, CC Sabathia, John Lackey and, of course, Johan Santana -- are also having career years and being mentioned ahead of him as Cy Young favorites.

    Not that Bonderman's numbers don't put him in the mix -- they most certainly do -- but he has absolutely no pressure on him having already gotten his team to the World Series last year, and as such he can just relax, go out there and perform. Bonderman has a better supporting cast than almost any of those other starters, and last year, although his first half was good, he did not reach his 12th win until September while this season he got his 10th win on July 1. So he is well ahead of where he was a year ago. His problem in 2006 was that he faded in the second half of the season (although he got it back together in time for the playoffs) so these late July starts will be critical.

    Minnesota right-hander Scott Baker has struggled lately and is particularly suspect when pitching at home where he has only one win and an ERA of 6.23. Detroit's bullpen, which was roughed up early on this season, has been lights out lately and should get even better after the return of Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya, both expected back some time in August. Giving Detroit some extra confidence is the fact that Cleveland is coming down to earth rather quickly going 4-7 in their last 11 games. The Twins' Torii Hunter (arguably their MVP for the first half) has tweaked his hamstring again and is doubtful for Thursday afternoon.

    Finally, the Tigers continue to absolutely tear it up on the road with an incredible 30-17 record away from home. Take Detroit.

    Free Pick: Tigers -127

  3. #3
    Willie Bee
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    White Sox, Red Sox to slide Under 9½

    Game Time: 07/19/2007 07:05 PM -
    By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

    Matsuzaka was not great in his last start, but he should get back on track vs. the light-hitting White Sox. With Vazquez in good form for Chicago, go Under.

    The Chicago White Sox, who struggle offensively at the best of times, will have the disadvantage of facing "Dice-K" Matzusaka of the Boston Red Sox for the first time ever tonight.

    Matsuzaka was not great in his last start, but he was dominant in his previous start here in Fenway Park, tossing eight shutout innings while allowing only four hits. He should have success vs. a Chicago lineup which hits for an average of only .244 while scoring only 4.2 runs per game.

    Meanwhile, Javier Vazquez has been pitching well recently, and has seen the Under go 6-2-1 his last nine starts. The Under is also 4-2 in Vazquez's six starts against the Red Sox. Most recently, last September, Vazquez was outdueled by Kason Gabbard in a 1-0 loss.

    Including that result, the Under is 5-0 the last five times the White Sox traveled to Boston and 9-3 in the last 12 encounters here.

    Free Pick: White Sox, Red Sox Under 9½ (-125)

  4. #4
    Willie Bee
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    Play Yankees -1½ (-120) on runline vs. Blue Jays

    Game Time: 07/19/2007 01:05 PM -
    By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

    Chien-Ming Wang is 7-0 in his last nine starts, and the red-hot Yankees bullpen has been unhittable in this series. Look for an easy win here, so play the runline.

    The surging New York Yankees are poised to sweep a four-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays this afternoon, as they send their most consistent hurler Chien -Ming Wang to the hill in the Bronx.

    The Pinstripes’ right-hander is 10-4 on the season along with a stable 3.43 ERA. He has been particularly dominating of late, having garnered a 7-0 record and stingy 2.89 ERA in his last 9 starts. Wang is 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA in his career against the Blue Jays.

    Furthermore, The Yankees bullpen in this series has been almost unhittable, as is evident by a minuscule 0.90 ERA. Also, the average margin of victory for the Bombers in Wang’s starts this season ring in at +2.4 run per game. Let’s ride Wang’s arm, a hot bullpen and the Yankees’ current momentum to a convincing win with a play on the runline.

    Free Pick: Yankees -1½ (-120)

  5. #5
    Willie Bee
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    Cubs' winning to continue vs Giants

    Game Time: 07/19/2007 02:20 PM -
    By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

    The Cubs are on a roll and the ghost of Harry Caray is smiling upon the Loveable Losers at Wrigley these days. Play Chicago on the chalk line today when they host the Giants.

    The Cubbies bounced back in a big way after dropping Tuesday night's game to the Giants by taking the visitors out behind the woodshed and administering a 12-1 beatdown on Wednesday. Chicago's Carlos Zambrano was brilliant, Giants pitching and defense was atrocious, and the Cubs bullpen almost pitched four scoreless innings en route to taking the lead (2-1) in the four-game series.

    Today's match-up pits the Cubs' Ted Lilly, who comes into this start white-hot, against San Francisco's Matt Morris who seems to be crashing back down to earth. Since getting off to a fast start and a solid first two months of the season, Morris has been mediocre at best, and the Giants have only won once in his last five overall starts. The same cannot be said for Ted Lilly who has found the NL a more favorable league for him to pitch in. In his last three starts Lilly is 3-0 with a 1.21 ERA. He's only surrendered 15 hits in 22.1 innings of work and boasts an impressive K/BB ratio of 18/5.

    The magic has resurfaced at Wrigley over the last month or so, making Sheffield and Waveland is a great location to be at when all is good with Cubbie nation. This is a series the Cubs will want to win badly, and in order to so, they'll have to pick up this win to take three of four in the series. The Giants are a very old baseball team, and they just don't seem to have the horses to compete with Chicago's fresh legs. Even without Derrek Lee in the lineup, the edge still goes to the home team here. So lay the wood as Lilly puts forth another solid outing and picks up his 10th win of the '07 campaign.

    Free Pick: Cubs -160

  6. #6
    Willie Bee
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    Brewers the bet vs Diamondbacks

    Game Time: 07/19/2007 02:05 PM -
    By: Larry Cook | touthouse.com

    Livan Hernandez just hasn't been on his game for the Diamondbacks this season. Back the Brewers at home in Miller Park this afternoon when the close out their series with Arizona.

    Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo has pitched sparingly this season with just 28 innings under his belt, but he has been very effective when taking the ball. Gallardo has a 2.83 ERA on the season while giving up just 21 hits in 28.2 innings of work. Arizona's Livan Hernandez has struggled in giving up 141 hits in 121 innings with a 4.61 ERA.

    The Brewers are 39-14 in their last 53 home games. The Diamondbacks are 2-10 in their last 12 road games and 0-7 in their last seven road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Diamondbacks are 2-10 in Hernandez's last 12 starts as a road underdog. The Brewers are 21-5 in their last 26 home games with the total set at 9.0-10½. Bet Milwaukee.

    Free Pick: Brewers -156

  7. #7
    Willie Bee
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    Lay chalk on C.C. & Tribe in Texas

    Game Time: 07/19/2007 08:35 PM -
    By: Dave Price | procappers.com

    Indians ace lefty C.C. Sabathia takes the hill tonight against a team he's dominated in the past. Chalk Cleveland up on the road in Texas when they take on Kameron Loe and the Rangers.

    This one is a no-brainer. We'll take the Indians with their ace on the hill today.

    C.C. Sabathia is 15-5 against the moneyline in his 20 starts this season. The Indians have won both of their previous meetings against Texas this season. Sabathia is 7-3 against the moneyline vs. Texas in his career. Cleveland's ace is 30-12 against the moneyline in road games vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .330 or worse since 1997, and 67-29 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. Take the Tribe.

    Free Pick: Indians -149

  8. #8
    Willie Bee
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    Pick Padres, Young vs Phillies

    Game Time: 07/19/2007 10:05 PM -
    By: Tom Freese | sportspic.com

    San Diego's Chris Young has been en fuego of late with a 26:1 K:BB ratio his last three starts. Play the Padres at home in Petco tonight when they host Cole Hamels and the Phillies.

    San Diego starter Chris Young is in awesome strikeout-to-walk form with 26 strikeouts and onely one walk in his last three starts.

    The Phillies are 5-11 in Game 1 of a road series this year. They send Cole Hamels to the mound here. He won't bother the Padres as they are 6-2 at night vs. lefthanders this year. Play On San Diego (Young vs. Hamels).

    Free Pick: Padres -130

  9. #9
    strictlywinners
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    My friend like I told u to stay away from the rangers yesterday im gonna have to do the same with brewers. Diamondbacks seems like sucker line but on that game the suckers win go with the dbacks

  10. #10
    Willie Bee
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    Ride red-hot Cincy at Florida

    Game Time: 07/19/2007 07:05 PM -
    By: Bill Young | touthouse.com

    Off a 3-game sweep over the Braves in Atlanta, the Reds look to keep rolling tonight when they open a 4-game series with the Marlins. Back Cincinnati in Florida this evening.

    The Reds are rolling right now after a three-game sweep of the Braves in Atlanta over the last three days. There is no reason Cincinnati won’t carry over that success into this game either.

    Cincinnati is 11-4 in their last 15 games against the Marlins in Florida. The Marlins are 2-9 in Sergio Mitre’s last 11 home starts. The Reds are 7-1 in their last eight games vs. a right-handed starter. The Marlins are 0-7 in Mitre's last seven starts during Game 1 of a series. Take Cincinnati to stay Red-hot and come out on top here.

    Free Pick: Reds +150

  11. #11
    Willie Bee
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    Giants +145 with Morris to cool off Cubs

    Game Time: 07/19/2007 02:20 PM -
    By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

    The Cubs are hot, but Ted Lilly has never had any success against the Giants, while Matt Morris still has a 3.86 ERA this season. Go with the value play here.

    Yes, the Chicago Cubs are the hottest team in baseball and the San Francisco Giants are in a swoon, but we still see some value with Matt Morris and the Giants at this price.

    Morris has been off his game lately, but he still has a nice 3.86 ERA for the season, which is not significantly worse than the 3.51 ERA of the Cubs starter Ted Lilly. There is also very little difference between these bullpens, with the Giants actually having the miniscule edge with a 3.86 pen ERA, compared to 3.89 for the Cubs.

    Finally, Lilly has not pitched well against the Giants, allowing 13 earned runs on 24 hits and seven walks in just 18.2 career innings against them.

    Free Pick: Giants +145

  12. #12
    Razz
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie Bee View Post
    Not that Bonderman's numbers don't put him in the mix -- they most certainly do

    Minnesota right-hander Scott Baker has struggled lately
    What a ****ing moron. I hate when people who have no clue suck out.

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