Reds to stay hot as big dogs at Florida
07/19/2007 06:40 AM
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com
The Reds just swept the Braves in Atlanta, and they are now 8-3 in their last 11 games. Conversely, the Marlins have struggled at home this season, and they have failed miserably in supporting tonight’s starter Sergio Mitre. Add in the fact that Cincinnati is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Florida, and all signs point to an upset.
The Cincinnati Reds and Florida Marlins are two teams heading in opposite directions, and the Reds offer tremendous value as a +150 underdog in this spot.
Cincinnati is coming off of a three-game road sweep of the Braves in Atlanta, making the Reds 8-3 in their last 11 games overall. They have also enjoyed the Florida sunshine in the past, going 11-4 in the last 15 head-to-head meetings with the Marlins in Miami.
Now their starter Matt Belisle has been erratic while going 5-6 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. However, he has had some nice performances this year, such as his last start vs. the New York Mets last Saturday where he allowed just one run in seven innings of an unfortunate 2-1 loss. In fact, that marked the third time in Belisle’s last five road starts that he allowed exactly one earned run while pitching at least six innings!
On the other hand, the Marlins just dropped two out of three here at home to the previously struggling St. Louis Cardinals. Florida had high expectations entering this season, but instead they have been one of the worst home bets in baseball, going 20-28 for -10.35 units in their own stadium! The Marlins have simply not produced enough offensively at home, averaging 4.56 runs per game while hitting a modest .256 as a team, including .250 vs. right-handed pitching.
Marlin starter Sergio Mitre has been a bright spot in the rotation with an amazing 2.81 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. However, that has translated to just a 4-4 record, and the Fish actually have a losing 7-9 record in all of his starts this year. Moreover, they are a dismal 2-9 in Mitre’s last 11 home starts going back to last year.
We look for Mitre’s bad luck to continue tonight, not to mention Florida’s lethargic play at home and Cincinnati’s resurgence on the road. Add this all up, and the Marlins look like a fine play at +150 in this spot.
Free Pick: Reds +150