SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
All-Star Break Ganchalysis: National League review
NL All-Star Break Ganchalysis
Arizona – Considering how bad Arizona looked closing out the half - losing 8 out of 10 to San Francisco, St. Louis, and Cincinnati, all sub-.500 teams with major weaknesses – it might be surprising to learn that they were actually a decently profitable team in the first half. They had a positive overall return of about 5%, roughly equally split between home and away games. And they are still, after all, over .500 at the break.
They were basically getting by early in the year on strong pitching; a bullpen that performed impressively and starting pitching that could at times be very effective. Brandon Webb of course will usually keep them in games, and Doug Davis and Livan Hernandez, when they are not getting hit hard, are capable of deep and quality starts.
This is also reflected in their 35-49 (41.7%) O/U trend, which was especially pronounced on the road at 13-31 (29.5%). This makes sense since their hitter-friendly home park somewhat masks their offensive feebleness, and I would definitely expect their road under trend to continue well into the second half, as that is not something the market is likely to make a strong adjustment on.
But unless their young hitters make an unexpected turnaround, Arizona looks headed downward in the second half, both in the standings and in their returns. I wouldn’t be surprised if they had a negative return in the double digits in the second half.
Atlanta – Atlanta had one of the strangest first halves of any team in the majors. They have a lineup full of good hitters, who have mostly put up very good offensive numbers, yet they were prone to going into atrocious offensive funks, including one almost incomprehensible stretch where they scored only 1 run in five games. They have 6 hitters who are hitting over .300 with more than 100 ABs, and yet Andruw Jones, the anchor of their lineup and one of the best power hitters in all of baseball for a decade, and in a contract year no less, is having an inexplicably lowly season (although he did show signs of coming out of his season-long slump at the very end of the first half).
They were 28-17 (62.2%) O/U on the road, and 18-23 (43.9%) at home, and they were exactly even on the ML, with a return of 0%. Their totals will probably have similar results in the second half, as their offense figures to either stay the same or get a bit better, and their pitching should continue to be both solid and vulnerable in the ways that it was in the first half. This combo tends to leave their totals a bit high when they play at their pitcher-friendly home park, and a bit low when they go on the road to more hitter-friendly places.
On the MLs, their future is hard to forecast at this point, but this is a team that bears paying close attention to, as their potential to be both good and bad, and to be both over and underrated in the lines, means that there will probably be more than a few spots with good value betting either on or against them in the second half.
Cubs – The Cubs are thought of as a pretty good team this year, and their record stands at one game over .500 at the break, so it might be a surprise to learn that they actually had a double digit negative return of about -11% in the first half. They were particularly overrated at home, where despite being 20-21, their return was about -17.5%.
In the second half, this may or may not continue, as they do tend to be overrated at home every year, as popular big market teams tend to be (see also: NY Yankees), but they are also very primed for a strong second half. They have a relatively strong lineup and starting rotation, and a reasonable bullpen, and the problems with slumps, injuries and bad behavior that plagued them in April and May seem to be largely over. In fact, the Cubs were a profitable team in June and July, with a return of about 9%.
Still, if the Cubs start to get on a winning streak, there’s no telling where their lines will be set at and bet towards, so keeping a careful eye on them will be called for.
Cincinnati – Cincinnati tied with Washington for worst team in the NL in the first half, and while that doesn’t by any means necessarily always translate into a negative return (Washington in fact had a slightly positive first half return), in Cincinnati’s case it did, as they had the worst overall return in all of baseball in the first half, at about -17%. This is mainly due to the fact that their biggest weakness by far is their bullpen, which tends to get factored into the lines less than the lineup and starting pitching do.
This is an especially big problem at their hitter-friendly home park, where pitching deficiencies tend to get enhanced, and visiting teams often experience an offensive boost. And indeed, their home game results reflect this, as they were 25-18 (58.1%) O/U at home, and particularly overrated at home, with a return of about -20%.
The prospects for a remedy to this problem coming any time soon do not look good. They are shuttling guys in and out of their bullpen, and only aging, mediocre closer David Weathers and rookie Jon “Cunnilingus” Coutlangus have been on the active roster all season. Interim manager Pete Mackanin said of the bullpen, “it’s a constant tryout” a few days ago. Having tryouts in the middle of the season for almost the entire slate of bullpen spots is not a promising thought for Cincinnati or their backers in the second half.
They are likely to continue to be near or at the bottom of the league in ROI in the second half, and to continue to lean towards the over at home.
Colorado – Colorado started the season slow, going 10-16 with a return of about -17% in April, but they started putting it together after that, and they returned about 9% in May/June/July. They’ve been particularly good at home, where opposing teams’ bullpens and non-elite starters often fall victim to the combination of the Colorado altitude and the Rockies’ strong lineup.
Colorado’s pitching is ok, but they win games mostly by out slugging opponents. As such, their winning is enhanced when playing at their hitter-friendly home park, but they tend to struggle a bit when they go on the road and play at the more pitcher-friendly parks in the NL. Although they had only a modestly negative return of -4% on the road in the first half, considering the makeup of their team, I would expect their second half road return to be more negative, and their second half home return to be more positive than their modestly positive first half return of 5%.
The totals at Coors seem to have stabilized this season, and in fact they were exactly 50% O/U at home. But it is pretty clear that Coors is still a strong over park when the conditions are right, and I would expect scoring to be up in July and August, barring any significant injuries.
Florida – Florida had an interesting home first half, as they trended strongly to the over at 26-12 (68.4%) O/U, but were overrated with a negative return of about -17%. This means that opposing teams were coming in and scoring in bunches at Florida. I don’t expect either of these trends to continue in the second half, however.
Florida has been very streaky with home totals the past few years, having long stretches of strong over and under trending. They have a decent bullpen, a slate of starters who have grossly underperformed this year compared to years past, and a mediocre lineup that features two stars in Ramirez and Cabrera, but not much else. Add it all up, and their second half totals figure to trend even or under.
Their starting pitching is the wild card in their ML prospects for the second half. How will Willis, Josh Johnson, Olsen, and the others fare? It’s not at all clear, but there could be a good amount of value with Florida totals and betting or fading their MLs in the second half if some of those pitchers veer one way or the other and the market is slow to react.
Houston – Houston had the classic negative return team makeup in the first half; a solid but not overpowering lineup, a decent starting rotation, and a pathetic bullpen (see also: Cincinnati). Houston had a return of -13% in the first half, and how much that changes is mostly dependent on how their bullpen fares in the second half.
Things are not looking totally gloomy on that front, however, as Brad Lidge will be returning, and if he is as effective as he was in the first half, he may get reinstated back into the closer’s role, or at least take some pressure off of the whole bullpen with some added quality innings, which could then have a bolstering effect on the other guys. Or, he could come back and get hit, and the pen could continue to be a liability and cost Houston more than a few games. Most likely though, the pen will improve at least somewhat. If it does, Houston could well go on some winning stretches, as their starters are pretty good and their lineup is adequate if unspectacular.
What lines they will get, however, is a different matter, and they do have a tendency as a team to be overrated. Still, they should have some value in spots, particularly as a small home favorite, and should also have some go-against value in other spots, particularly as a big favorite, or when some of their bigger bats sit, reducing their lineup from adequate to weakish.
Houston is sort of a NL Oakland, and they are a team you can win a lot or lose a lot on, depending on how you read the zigs and zags. If you have a good read on them, there will probably be a good amount of opportunity to zig when others are zagging, and to win off of that. On the other hand, if you don’t have a good read on Houston, tread carefully, because they are the kind of team that tends to be involved in a lot of so-called “trap” lines.
Dodgers – The Dodgers are an interesting team for a few reasons. Primarily, they are a team that is thought to play in a pitcher-friendly park, and as such, their home totals tend to be low. But in the past season and a half, they have in fact trended strongly to the over at home. They were 51-30 O/U (63.0%) last season, and 28-18 O/U (60.9%) in the first half of this year.
Their lineup is also a bit unusual. Most teams have a few stars and then a collection of guys who range between mediocre and terrible, and the quality of their lineups depends on the actual number of stars and the quality of contributions the supporting cast makes. But the Dodgers are completely different; they have no stars, but are very balanced every night, from spots 1 through 8. It’s a pretty effective formula, because while trending over at home, but they were solidly profitable both at home and on the road in the first half, returning about 6% overall.
Their pitching is also relatively good, and their bullpen is reasonably deep as well. So overall, they will be able to weather injuries and fatigue better than other teams will.
In the second half, I would not be surprised to see the lines on their home totals rise, and as a result see their totals trend even or to the under. Their totals were already being bet up in the first half, and the 79-48 O/U home trend of the past year and a half is not going to sneak up on anyone. Looking at that trend and blindly or semi-blindly betting Dodger home overs in the second half will be a dangerous thing to do.
I do, however, think they will be one of the better home ML bets in baseball, and I would not be surprised at all if their second half home return turns out to be in the positive double digits.
Brad Penny, of course, faded badly after the All-Star Break last year after a similarly dominant first half, and it would not be a surprise at all if that happened again this year. If it does, of course, it will greatly cut into the Dodgers’ overall ROI, as they are likely to be favorites in most of his second half starts, and prohibitively so at home. Still, the Dodgers are looking like a decent bet in general in the second half, and perhaps especially at home.
Milwaukee – Milwaukee, of course, were the darlings of the first half, with their exciting and productive lineup filled with newcomers. And they did have a respectable positive return of 5% overall in the first half. But cracks, or at least lines that looked like cracks, did start to show at the end.
Their first half return of 5% was actually 11% if you take out their 8 July games, and that may be a portent of things to come. Seven of those 8 games were against Washington and Pittsburgh, both sub-.500 and none-too-impressive teams.
Their offense may have been overachieving in the first half, and I would not be surprised if it cooled off a bit, after the mental breather of the break. If that happens, Milwaukee could be in trouble, because their pitching is not particularly durable. Ben Sheets is a quality starter of course, but he always seems to have health issues here and there. And the quartet of starters after him does not inspire much confidence as a group.
The bullpen was an asset in the first half, and held many games for them, but there are a few uncomfortable signs. Cordero had a terrible June, and it’s not quite clear why, but a late-season closer implosion of the type we are all so familiar with may victimize him and his backers this year. And looking at Turnbow’s first half/second half splits from last year is troubling to say the least.
Milwaukee may slug their way to a winning second half, their starting pitching may well improve, and there may be no bullpen meltdown of any kind at all. But these are some issues to keep an eye out for with them in the second half.
Mets – The Mets of course opened up the season like gangbusters, as expected. They put together a talented and deep lineup and bullpen, and they knew that if their starting pitching, which had some promise but also some questions, held up, they would be on top of the NL. The pitching did hold up, and through April and May, the Mets were 34-18, returning about 14%. But then they got hit by the injury bug, and had a very bad June/July, actually returning -23%, winding up exactly even for the half overall.
But things should improve for the Mets in the second half, especially if their starting pitching continues to be reasonably effective, which is somewhat of a big if. Their lineup is deep and balanced, kind of like the Dodgers, and they have the bullpen to close out most games when needed.
The starting pitching, which has been quite good so far, will probably be more of a liability in the second half than it was in the first. Maine is in his first full major league season, Perez was one of the worst starters in the majors last year, and went on the DL in late June, Hernandez and Sosa have been notably non-durable and given to implosions in recent years, and Glavine is 41.
Still, the Mets are a stronger team than most, and they will probably have a fine second half, and remain near the top of the NL standings. Their lines, however, are likely to remain high, and while there are sure to be games where the Mets will have value even as a big favorite, they will probably be appropriately valued overall in the second half.
Philadelphia – There’s not much to say about these guys. They were .500 in the first half, and very appropriately rated. They trended to the over, going 49-35 (58.3%) O/U, which stands to reason since their lineup is their strength and their starting pitching is their weakness.
I would expect them to continue to play about .500 in the second half and to be appropriately rated on their MLs. I also would expect them to be pretty even on totals, as they are known to have a strongish lineup, and their totals tend to be on the high side and to get higher when they start to trend over like they did in the first half.
They are a good “straight-man” team betting-wise; they are good enough to take advantage of other teams’ weak situations, and weak enough to fall victim to other teams’ strong situations. They may not add much betting value either way, but they are also not likely to contradict value in whatever way it may be provided by other teams, and that is a good thing. They are swayable, and a good opponent for a game where the other team brings strong pressure in one direction or another.
Pittsburgh – Pittsburgh is an interesting team, somewhat like a lower-profile Philadelphia. They were very accurately rated in the first half, returning almost exactly 0% (which of course, after the vig, means they were actually a bit underrated) and going 40-41 O/U.
Their lineup is very average, and from a betting perspective, that can be a useful thing, because they are a team that will be able to hit bad pitching, but also be able to be relatively easily shut down by top-level pitching.
Their pitching also brings a bit of value-laden imbalance to the table as well; they are a different team when either Snell or Gorzelanny is starting, as opposed to anyone else. Salomon Torres was the monkey wrench in Pittsburgh games in the beginning of the year, but he seems to be well out of the picture now. Pittsburgh’s bullpen now resembles their rotation; a couple of quality guys who can close out a game Pittsburgh is winning, and a back end that is very hittable if Pittsburgh is already behind.
All in all, Pittsburgh could easily be involved in many games with solid value in one way or another, as their results are likely to be pretty balanced in aggregate, but quite polarized from game to game or series to series.
San Diego – San Diego somewhat quietly played their way to the best record in the NL in the first half, and as they do most seasons, they had a positive return on the road, about 13%, and a negative return at home, about -3%.
They got it done despite injuries and slumps on the offensive end, because of their quality pitching, and particularly their deep and effective bullpen. They have now gotten an influx of offensive support, and their lineup should be significantly stronger in most second half games than it was at times in the first half.
Their pitching is likely to hold up decently as well. Of course some of the starters may well run into problems in the second half, but all in all, San Diego is looking better than most pitching-wise, and that will stand them in good stead in the later months of the season.
They should continue to be underrated on the road, as playing at Petco gives them the double line boost of having an offense that looks less formidable on paper than it really is, combined with their hitters giving an extra effort being on the road where they can be more productive.
Depleted lineups are killer for overs at Petco, and earlier in the year when San Diego had some guys injured, others slumping, and the weather was chillier, they were 8-17 O/U at home in April and May. After that, however, they were at 50% on totals at home, and in the second half they are likely to lean only slightly to the under at home.
On the road, however, I would expect San Diego’s offensive production in the second half to be much improved, and I expect them to trend to the over, depending on how much their road lines adjust.
San Francisco – San Francisco was a pretty clear team to fade for most of the first half. Their main problem is that they are an aging team, without much spark or liveliness, and the grind of the season is something that will make them lose their edge. Their ML results reflect this pretty clearly; they were actually a profitable team in April, returning 7%. After that, however, things went badly downhill, and they had a big negative return of about -18% the rest of the way.
They do have quality starters who are capable of holding other teams down when they are on their game, which is partially why San Francisco had a modest under trend of 36-46 (43.9%) O/U in the first half. Their rotation is so loaded with potential in fact, that depending on how those guys are able to hold up, San Francisco could well be a profitable team in the second half mostly due to their starting pitching. But I expect them to at least continue as an under-leaning team the rest of the way, depending of course on their bullpen and line adjustments. They’ll probably have trouble scoring, if not winning, for various stretches, and their lines will probably not adjust much, staying around 8 or 8.5 most of the time.
St. Louis – St. Louis was a very strange, enigmatic team in the first half. Their rotation consisted entirely of Kip Wells, Anthony Reyes, and a passel of converted relievers.
Overall, they were 40-45 with only a modest negative return of about -7%, which is stunning considering that Wells and Reyes made a combined 27 starts in the first half, out of which St. Louis won three. Adding in Carpenter and Maroth’s starts, St. Louis was 4-27 in games started by normal starters, and 36-18 in games started by their converted relievers.
With Carpenter set to come back sometime soon in the second half (he is already throwing rehab starts in the minors) and the acquisition of Mike Maroth, Wells and Reyes might get converted themselves, possibly into ex-major leaguers, considering how deep and effective St Louis’ bullpen has been this year.
St. Louis had a somewhat strange first half offensively as well. Losing David Eckstein might have hurt them a bit, and he too is ready to come back soon after the break. Scott Rolen has completely lost his power stroke, while Albert Pujols keeps chugging along as the Herculean anchor in the middle, and Chris Duncan is proving that last year was not a fluke. But when Duncan sits against lefties, St. Louis has a punchless offense, with Pujols alone as the only power threat in the lineup.
So things all in all look very up in the air for St. Louis in the second half, and watching them closely as Carpenter and Eckstein return and the converted relievers head into the home stretch will probably reveal more than a few value plays on various angles in their games.
Washington – Washington was a streaky team in the first half, winning in bunches at times as an inappropriately big underdog, and at other times losing hopelessly for games on end against teams that clearly outclassed them.
The second half will probably bring more of the same, as their all-around sub-par team is not likely to improve, but still likely to have value at times as a big underdog against teams that may not be in a position to dominate them for whatever reasons. They’re still likely to win 40% of their second half games, and the big odds they will have with most of their MLs could slip too high or too low, providing value one way or the other.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Ganchrow HG
Interesting read 
