Three plays for Friday

Razz · 06-07-2007, 02:11 PM

Going to be out of town tomorrow, but figured I'd post a couple opinions.

Braves +116 (LC/SM)
Rematch of the game last week when Marshall beat Cormier 10-1. Cormier gave up 9 hits and 8 runs in 4 IP. That was his first start off the DL, so things were unnatural for him, especially in an atmosphere such as Wrigley Field in a day game. It was easy to see coming, Cubs trying to avoid a sweep, after Pinella went off, against a pitcher making his first start off the DL. Anyone who didn't have the Cubs or over should be ashamed.
He'll be much, much better tomorrow. At Turner Field last year, he went 7 innings and gave up only 1 run in a win over the Cubs. In fact, he was very good down the stretch last year and had been great in the minors in his rehab starts.
He's certainly not a worse pitcher than Marshall, who was hit much harder than the numbers showed last week. A pitcher with a career 5.13 ERA shouldn't be a road favorite against a quality team. In 13 career road starts, Marshall's road ERA is 5.88. It won't get better here. There is a perception that the Cubs have a starting pitching advantage. They don't. They certainly don't have a bullpen or lineup advantage, or homefield. This line is bogus.

Giants -120 (TL/CG)
What we have here is a continued disrespect for Tim Lincecum. I don't know if it's his national TV appearance against the Phillies that sticks in the oddsmakers heads or what, but against everyone other than Philly, he has been awesome. Even including those two shaky starts, his WHIP is 1.02. Just to put that in perspective, here's some other WHIP's:

Oswalt: 1.22
Smoltz: 1.21
Hamels: 1.15
Penny: 1.24
Beckett: 1.05
Halladay: 1.26
Santana: 1.11
Lackey: 1.19

Everyone on that list would be at least -150 in this game. Anyway, Lincecum is 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA in 4 starts against everyone besides Philly, giving up only 17 hits in 29 innings (yes, that's over 7 IP per start).
The A's are in the progress of sweeping or taking 3 of 4 from Boston, so one would think they are playing well. They aren't. Boston is just playing worse. If anything, they'll come flat here off that productive series.
Small play on under too, in case Gaudin throws a gem.

Diamondbacks +136 (DD/JB)
What? Sure, Doug Davis is 4-6 and Josh Beckett is 8-0. But their ERA's aren't much different. Davis's is 3.05 and Beckett's is 2.95. Beckett is 0-3 with a 6.97 career ERA against Arizona as well. More importantly, it's being proven that Boston cannot score runs on the road, especially against LHP. 2 against Joe Kennedy. 0 against Lenny Dinardo. Neither of those guys are as good as Doug Davis. Oh, and since no one has noticed, the Diamondbacks are 36-24. This team's pretty good.

bigboydan · 06-07-2007, 02:21 PM

Boy Razz, Your way a head of me on tomorrows action. Hell, I'm still looking at todays games

Razz · 06-07-2007, 02:25 PM

Today's games didn't really interest me. I mean, I have small plays on ATL, NYM, and Oak, but nothing on tonight's card is anywhere near as strong as these three.

buztah · 06-07-2007, 02:30 PM

Razz, I'm actually hoping Bos loses today in Oak, with more than 8.5 runs total scored, so I can bet Boston BIG vs AZ tomorrow.

BuddyBear · 06-07-2007, 03:17 PM

I did not play OAK today b/c they fell into a horrible horrible system....but I would have leaned to them. I am hoping though that BOS wins so people think "things are back to normal" tomorrow for Boston and this way I can take Ariz. Then again, I've been having a miserable week in betting bases.

BuddyBear · 06-07-2007, 03:19 PM

I like all those plays too Razz...

Razz · 06-07-2007, 04:58 PM

Another great offensive display from Boston. They continue to play like a bad team and continue to have the pricetag of a great team. Eventually they'll play better, and maybe it will start tomorrow, but until they start hitting, these lines are comical.

Razz · 06-07-2007, 11:22 PM

OK, officially.

2* Braves +113
2* D'Backs +145
2* Giants -121
1* Cardinals +116
1* Giants Under 7.5 -105

Strong card.

bigboydan · 06-08-2007, 12:40 AM

I can't take Wells in that game myself Razz. That guy has a "flammable gas can" type logo on his jersey. If I were to take anything in that game I would take the over.

I do like your D'backs play though. I feel there is some value with that play at that price. Az has been playing very good baseball this year, and are extremely streaky. I'm going to continue to ride the wave even after that tough loss they had tonight.

Senator7 · 06-08-2007, 01:02 AM

Be careful with the D'Backs, Razz. Davis' ERA is actually closer to 4.65 while Beckett's is 2.26.

Schilling's outing today will be an emotional lift to the Sox as well.

Not saying to stay away from Arizona, just playing devil's advocate...