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Old 07-02-09, 01:50 PM   #1
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Default Correlation between UNDER and scoreless 1st inning....

I ran some numbers on how many times each game that went UNDER the total was scoreless in the first inning.

I then calculated the $Won for the UNDER and the $Won for a parlay of the UNDER and the Scoreless 1st inning bet.

For every team, except the Orioles and Cardinals, you are better off using a parlay of the UNDER and the scoreless 1st inning bet than you are betting the UNDER straight.

There is definitely a correlation between the UNDER and the scoreless first inning.

HOWEVER, people are complaining that offshore books don't allow this, I don't use offshore books so I dont' care what they do. So, if you use an offshore book and you can't play this way then use this for informational purposes.

Here are the results:
(Column 1=Team, Column 2=# of games that went UNDER, Column 3=$ Won on UNDER using bet to win $100, Column 4=# of games that went UNDER and the scoreless in the 1st inning bet won - NO="Score in first inning?", Column 5=$ Won parlaying UNDER and scoreless risking $100, Column 6=$Advantage over betting the UNDER straight, NOTE** The advantage is higher % wise because I used betting to win $100 on the UNDER and betting to risk $100 on the parlay).

Team #U $Won #U+NO $Parlay W $ Advantage
Angels 36 $3,600 23 $5,428 $1,828
Astros 46 $4,600 21 $4,956 $356
Athletics 41 $4,100 25 $5,900 $1,800
Blue Jays 41 $4,100 23 $5,428 $1,328
Braves 44 $4,400 28 $6,608 $2,208
Brewers 40 $4,000 24 $5,664 $1,664
Cardinals 44 $4,400 19 $4,484 $84
Cubs 42 $4,200 23 $5,428 $1,228
Dbacks 39 $3,900 29 $6,844 $2,944
Dodgers 42 $4,200 22 $5,192 $992
Giants 41 $4,100 28 $6,608 $2,508
Indians 37 $3,700 24 $5,664 $1,964
Mariners 47 $4,700 30 $7,080 $2,380
Marlins 39 $3,900 18 $4,248 $348
Mets 42 $4,200 22 $5,192 $992
Nationals 42 $4,200 27 $6,372 $2,172
Orioles 37 $3,700 14 $3,304 -$396
Padres 41 $4,100 27 $6,372 $2,272
Phillies 40 $4,000 21 $4,956 $956
Pirates 43 $4,300 23 $5,428 $1,128
Rangers 48 $4,800 25 $5,900 $1,100
Rays 43 $4,300 26 $6,136 $1,836
Red 42 $4,200 22 $5,192 $992
Reds 44 $4,400 21 $4,956 $556
Rockies 41 $4,100 25 $5,900 $1,800
Royals 44 $4,400 23 $5,428 $1,028
Tigers 46 $4,600 28 $6,608 $2,008
Twins 46 $4,600 29 $6,844 $2,244
White 47 $4,700 26 $6,136 $1,436
Yankees 41 $4,100 24 $5,664 $1,564
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Online gambling is illegal. I post 'picks' which are my best guess on what the outcome of the game may be for information purposes only. I do not condone using these 'picks' for purposes which are not legal. I do not condone anyone doing business with an online sportsbook from a jurisdiction where such sportsbooks are not legal. If in doubt please consult a lawyer.

Last edited by curious; 07-02-09 at 03:35 PM..
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Old 07-02-09, 01:57 PM   #2
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Curious what book allows you to parlay the no score 1st inning with the under? 5dimes wont allow it.
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Old 07-02-09, 01:59 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeeWizzle View Post
Curious what book allows you to parlay the no score 1st inning with the under? 5dimes wont allow it.
I dont use offshore books so I can't help you with that.
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Old 07-02-09, 02:01 PM   #4
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i know betus does
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Old 07-02-09, 02:10 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbybux View Post
i know betus does
I would think most would say its correlated.

Does BetUs allow parlays of a Team total under and the Game Under? That might really be pushing it.
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Old 07-02-09, 02:20 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JerseyShop101 View Post
I would think most would say its correlated.

Does BetUs allow parlays of a Team total under and the Game Under? That might really be pushing it.
I would agree that team total under and under are correlated.

But I think it is a stretch to say that scoreless first inning and UNDER are correlated. I dont' use offshore books so I don't really know what they do.
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Old 07-02-09, 02:27 PM   #7
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Default Bodog

I just tried the UNDER and scoreless first on Bodog and it was no problem.
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Last edited by curious; 07-02-09 at 03:36 PM..
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Old 07-02-09, 02:51 PM   #8
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Huh. I just tried it on Bodog and it wouldn't work:

There is a problem with your wager
MLB Team Props cannot be used in if bets, reverse bets or parlays.

I noticed while trying to place a parlay with 2 different 1st inning props the other day that the Parlay button doesn't light up. This time, I tried adding both to My Picks, then parlaying them from there. Bummer...
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Old 07-02-09, 03:35 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by billdo75 View Post
Huh. I just tried it on Bodog and it wouldn't work:

There is a problem with your wager
MLB Team Props cannot be used in if bets, reverse bets or parlays.

I noticed while trying to place a parlay with 2 different 1st inning props the other day that the Parlay button doesn't light up. This time, I tried adding both to My Picks, then parlaying them from there. Bummer...
I didn't fund the account, i just set the bet up, it let me do that, obviously I did not hit the button to actually make the wager. So, I'll take your word for it.
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Old 07-02-09, 03:53 PM   #10
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so you have a local that takes 1st half score or not props? wtf?

if you aren't even making this bets and consider this informational, well, ok

I would also submit that nba 1st quarter unders parlayed with game unders, nfl, nhl, etc etc are "winners"
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Old 07-02-09, 04:27 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stats13 View Post
so you have a local that takes 1st half score or not props? wtf?

if you aren't even making this bets and consider this informational, well, ok

I would also submit that nba 1st quarter unders parlayed with game unders, nfl, nhl, etc etc are "winners"
I don't know what a 1st half score or not is. I guess you meant 1st inning score or not.

I said I don't bet on online sports books. What I do or don't do with other betting outlets you are free to guess.

Never heard of a 1st quarter under.

After people started complaining that they can't make the parlay bet I was discussing I changed the post to say that the statistics indicate that the two bets are correlated and you should use that for informational purposes.
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Old 07-02-09, 05:57 PM   #12
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haha so under 1st inning is correlated to under for the game. wow. awesome info

seriously if you don't lol at how impotent this "knowledge" is, you are well... challenged

and the fact you don't know what a 1st quarter nba under is just screams all kinds of not knowing anything

why dont you go ahead and run the same sim on YES 1st inning score parlayed with over

Last edited by stats13; 07-02-09 at 06:21 PM..
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Old 07-02-09, 07:05 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stats13 View Post
haha so under 1st inning is correlated to under for the game. wow. awesome info

seriously if you don't lol at how impotent this "knowledge" is, you are well... challenged

and the fact you don't know what a 1st quarter nba under is just screams all kinds of not knowing anything

why dont you go ahead and run the same sim on YES 1st inning score parlayed with over
Be nice stats.

If you go back and read curious' other posts he has put a ton of information out there to help fellow posters. And we know that he really meant well with this one also.
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Old 07-02-09, 09:22 PM   #14
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What is your normal strategy for score/scoreless props?
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Old 07-02-09, 09:25 PM   #15
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Curious,

Good 2 see u again.
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Old 07-02-09, 10:02 PM   #16
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Apologies for being a dick earlier- I was. I appreciate the effort that curious made, but what he said was basically obvious. It's kinda like saying the team thats winning at halftime usually wins the game. I understand an inning is only 1/9th of a game, not 1/3 or 1/4 or 1/2, but its still a good part and good judgement on the start of the game and how it'll go.
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Old 07-09-09, 03:41 PM   #17
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While it may seem obvious to someone of your grandeur stats13, the point is that there is more money to be made if you parlay the two together rather than play simply the under straight. That actually is useful information.
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Old 07-09-09, 03:46 PM   #18
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find me one book on earth that allows you to parlay these
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