[cocknocker]

After doing my homework I came up with a couple of plays for Tuesday's action.

Marlins+157 HEAVY False favorite in this game
Rays+120 HEAVY
Orioles-120 or less
Pirates+118



WHIP

FLO 1.22
BOS 1.43

Advantage Marlins

Power ranking

FLO+113
BOS-113

Line FLO+157
BOS-165

HEAVY advantage for Marlins as the Red Sox are overvalued. With only 25% of bettors on their side, the Marlins line went from +157 to +150, which is a reverse line movement

Slugging% last 3 games

FLO .573
BOS .504

Advantage Marlins

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

FLO 1.148
BOS 1.462

Advantage Marlins

My pick: Marlins+157 HEAVY (I played it last night as the slug and bullpen numbers were already available)

**************************************** ***************

WHIP

TAM 1.45
COL 1.41

Advantage Rockies

Power ranking

TAM-117
COL+117

Line

TAM +120
COL-128

Advantage Tampa as there is a false favorite. With 75% of the bettors on their side the line for the favorite has decreased down to as low as -113 on some books down from -128. SO the line is performing correctly

Slugging% last 3 games

TAM .556
COL .432

Advantage Tampa HEAVY

Bullpen WHIP Last 3 games

TAM 0.556
COL 1.154

Advantage Tampa

My pick: Tampa HEAVY as the bat are in order and the only statistical advantage that the favorite has is a slight one on the WHIP for the pitchers.

**************************************** ******************

WHIP

NYM 1.47
BAL 1.45

Advantage O's

Power ranking

NYM-101
BAL+101

Line

NYM+119
BAL-127

Advantage O's. 68% of bettors are on the Mets and the line went up to -125 and as high as -130 for the O's. The pwer rankings show a false favorite, but with the bats involved, the O's clearly have advantages.

Slugging% last 3 games

NYM .434
BAL .491

Advantage O's

Bullpen WHIP last 3 game

NYM 1.863
BAL 1.304

Advantage O's

My pick: O's-120

**************************************** *******

WHIP

PIT 1.31
MIN 1.32

Advantage Pirates

Power Ranking

PIT+107
MIN-107

Line

PIT+137
MIN -145

Advantage Pirates HEAVY. With a little over 30% of bettos on their side, the line went from Minnesota-145 to Minnesota-127 which is a HUGE RLM.

Slugging% last three games

PIT .449
MIN .404

Advantage Pirates

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

PIT 1.833
MIN 1.311

Advantage Twins

My pick: Pirates hoping that the bullpen doesn't implode and burn my money.

[JumpoffJoeBeezy]

Really feeling the Marlins play tomorrow. Also like Wandy Rodriguez and the Astros. On top of that I like Felix Hernandez and the Mariners -1.5 @ SD.

But ya the Fish look good.

[RoagBettor]

Well, yesterday I proclaimed I would never bet baseball again.

Today I tailed CK and was 4-0:

Brewers ML
Angels ML
Angels RL
Parlay Angels ML/Over 8.5

What can I say, I'm f*cked up!

By the way, thanks CK.

[sportsguy04]

I like Detroit ML with Verlander on the mound vs. a struggling Cardinals offense.

[haserfauld]

Originally Posted by cocknocker

After doing my homework I came up with a couple of plays for Tuesday's action.

Marlins+157 HEAVY False favorite in this game
Rays+120 HEAVY
Pirates 1st half (No line yet)

I changed my Pirates play to the 1st half as their bullpen numbers are horrid over their last 3 games. They have an advantage with the bats and the pitcher over the 1st half so why not?

I will come along and fill in the report later on.

Forgive my inexperience with MLB, but I my book confuses me. I've never bet baseball, and I'm confused by some of the lines/terms.

My book has:

Florida Marlins
+1½ -135
ML +150

When laying on the ML, I'm given the option of Listed, Action, and then each of the starting pitchers. wtf does all this mean? Sorry for my ineptitude, but nfl/nba was much more straight forward!

lookin forward to learning the mlb ropes this season =)

[Razz_Donkey]

Hey CK, after looking at the recent form of the Orioles I think they may have some value against the Mets for Tuesday. Their hitting has been on fire in their last few games and the bullpen has done its job fairly well. Any thoughts on this one?

[suicidekings]

Originally Posted by haserfauld

Forgive my inexperience with MLB, but I my book confuses me. I've never bet baseball, and I'm confused by some of the lines/terms.

My book has:

Florida Marlins
+1½ -135
ML +150

When laying on the ML, I'm given the option of Listed, Action, and then each of the starting pitchers. wtf does all this mean? Sorry for my ineptitude, but nfl/nba was much more straight forward!

lookin forward to learning the mlb ropes this season =)

Action - Bet proceeds despite a potential change in pitcher
Listed - Bet depends on starting pitchers. A change in either starter would cancel the bet.

If you're new to baseball, the biggest differences between baseball and other sports to keep in mind:
- Long season, with lots of game to choose from every day (2430/season). Money management is key
- A good team in baseball might still only barely be a .600 team. Any team can win on any day. Betting the big faves on the ML is not the correct strategy for long term success.

Welcome to the MLB!

[Bogart45]

I'm liking TB and Pit also. But I think the Florida +156 line is where it should be, so I'm staying away from that one.

[haserfauld]

Thank you for the explanation...that helps. So since the marlins are the dogs in this case, is the line likely to shift giving more value to the dogs ML closer to gametime, like in other sports? Or is it fine to just grab it at +150 at my book right now?

[cocknocker]

Originally Posted by Razz_Donkey

Hey CK, after looking at the recent form of the Orioles I think they may have some value against the Mets for Tuesday. Their hitting has been on fire in their last few games and the bullpen has done its job fairly well. Any thoughts on this one?

I had just finished my handicapping and when I came back to put this play in you had already suggested it. It's a beautifully crafted pick. They even have the advantage in the bullpen which I like. I like the Orioles a lot in this matchup and I will be playing them for sure.

[Razz_Donkey]

Originally Posted by cocknocker

I had just finished my handicapping and when I came back to put this play in you had already suggested it. It's a beautifully crafted pick. They even have the advantage in the bullpen which I like. I like the Orioles a lot in this matchup and I will be playing them for sure.

Thats great, hopefully we get plenty of money coming in from the public on the Mets which should drive the line down for us even more.

[Ineed$$]

Last night Prince Fielder saved my life ... Thanks CK !

[Minkus]

CK. What website do you use, when you are capping?
thanks.

[obamaismyuncle]

Twins Twins Twins Twins -140

Twins are 5-1 against the National League this year and have completely destroyed National League teams over the past 3-4 years. Twins get Perkins back tonight and the Twins definately play their best baseball in the dome. 3 Game set against the Pirates and I will most likely take the Twins ML all 3 as I do believe it will be a sweep. Pitching has been getting better across the board and the Twins can score a ton on any given night.

[jellobiafra]

CIN +113

TAM+115


Maybe SFG +100 later. Still haven't decided on that one.

[Jimbo42]

What up!
Hey bros... i'm on the O's too... I thought I had found a hidden gem but you guys are already on it...

Booked:

Chicago White Sox +135
Chicago White Sox -1.5 big crumbs

Baltimore O's -120
Baltimore O's -1.5 +165

Kansas City -1.5 +150
Kansas City -140


Also looking to San Diego later...

GL

[Joe Sharp]

haha I swear that this guy (khali) steals cocknockers plays. I see his plays posted on other sites all the time and they are always very similar to cks!


khaliagent picks
WNBA#Connecticut Sun +3.5 -110 (1 unit)
MLB#Florida Marlins ML +158 (1 unit)
MLB#Tampa Bay Rays +112 (2 units)
WNBA#Minnesota Lynx/Sacramento Monarchs over 161 -105 (1 unit)

[jellobiafra]

Getting nice line movement on Tampa and Cinci. Both are -10 from what I got them at last night. Love it when that happens....

[suicidekings]

Originally Posted by haserfauld

Thank you for the explanation...that helps. So since the marlins are the dogs in this case, is the line likely to shift giving more value to the dogs ML closer to gametime, like in other sports? Or is it fine to just grab it at +150 at my book right now?

Depends on the matchup. When a line starts out fairly efficient, and bettors are fairly even on each side, you won't see much line movement. However, when there's a big imbalance in the betting, the books might adjust the line to compensate. Take a look at

http://www.thespread.com/mlb-basebal...-betting-chart

and get familiar with how betting drives the market changes to get a better understanding of what's going to happen with the line. It's important not only to notice that it's moving, but also why and when it moves. Once you use it for a while, you'll be able to tell at a glance where the most value will be. Also, familiarize yourself with reverse line movement. This is an article written by LT Profits, who knows the topic well:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/7...line-movements

For the FLA pick, you can see there's 75% on Boston, but the line hasn't moved a great deal, implying that even though there's only 25% of the bets on the Marlins, those bets are larger on average than the bets placed on Boston.

[suicidekings]

I'm on FLA, TB, CLE, but also the Giants. Sanchez at home is solid.

[solobass]

whats up fellow degenerates lets make some money.

[cocknocker]

Originally Posted by Minkus

CK. What website do you use, when you are capping?
thanks.

I use:

Sportsinsights.com The night before to see what the opening line was. Pinnacle is also good if you don't want to sign up for the membership

TheSpread.com The night before to find out the WHIP of the pitcher as well as the Power ranking

Cleanuphitter.com The day of the game to find out the slugging% over the last 3 days and the bullpen WHIP over the last 3 days

VegasInsider.com The day of the game to find totals that have less than 20% on them and have reverse movement

WinningEdge.com The night before (Pitcher logs for how they do with the current value that pertains to the line for the game over the past two years

[pho3nix32]

Originally Posted by cocknocker

I use:

Sportsinsights.com The night before to see what the opening line was. Pinnacle is also good if you don't want to sign up for the membership

TheSpread.com The night before to find out the WHIP of the pitcher as well as the Power ranking

Cleanuphitter.com The day of the game to find out the slugging% over the last 3 days and the bullpen WHIP over the last 3 days

VegasInsider.com The day of the game to find totals that have less than 20% on them and have reverse movement

WinningEdge.com The night before (Pitcher logs for how they do with the current value that pertains to the line for the game over the past two years

you take time to research, cap and then share your plays with everybody. this is why you are the peep's champ! thank you ck!

[solobass]

alright gang here we go day #1 of my experiment. i will call every game for a week posted here regardless of the odds. here are today's offerings/winners
CIN
NYY
BAL
PHI
MIL
FLA
HOU
CHC
KC
MIN
DET
COL
SEA
LAD
SF

strongest pitchers on the board (according to my formula) are
1. verlander
2. hernandez (seattle)
3. hamels
4. rodriguez (astros)
5. de la rosa (rockies)

[solobass]

so now my plays....i parlayed yanks phils and cubbies. these are heavy favorites and this is the way to actually make some cash on these. refer to CK for the best guidelines as far as parlay money management he wrote the book on that!

[solobass]

parlayed tigers and dodgers
bet
CIN
BAL
MIL
FLA
HOU
KC
COL
SEA
bet all of these straight. the games i left out of my selections were the closest ones according to my number crunching.

[G's pks]

Originally Posted by solobass

alright gang here we go day #1 of my experiment. i will call every game for a week posted here regardless of the odds. here are today's offerings/winners
CIN
NYY
BAL
PHI
MIL
FLA
HOU
CHC
KC
MIN
DET
COL
SEA
LAD
SF

strongest pitchers on the board (according to my formula) are
1. verlander
2. hernandez (seattle)
3. hamels
4. rodriguez (astros)
5. de la rosa (rockies)

Chc is playing Chc... is that Cws or da cubs?

[solobass]

Originally Posted by G's pks

Chc is playing Chc... is that Cws or da cubs?

Cubs, i use CWS for the white sox and CHC for the cubs. funny i actually saw ANA (for the angels) on a website the other day.

[jellobiafra]

Originally Posted by solobass

strongest pitchers on the board (according to my formula) are
1. verlander
2. hernandez (seattle)
3. hamels
4. rodriguez (astros)
5. de la rosa (rockies)

solobass I have much respect for your handicapping, but how does your formula have De La Rosa as one of the top 5 pitchers going today? Do you factor in home and road splits? He is 0-4 with a 6.67 ERA at home. He's better that CC Sabathia today??

[Dbldown11]

Originally Posted by suicidekings

Action - Bet proceeds despite a potential change in pitcher
Listed - Bet depends on starting pitchers. A change in either starter would cancel the bet.

If you're new to baseball, the biggest differences between baseball and other sports to keep in mind:
- Long season, with lots of game to choose from every day (2430/season). Money management is key
- A good team in baseball might still only barely be a .600 team. Any team can win on any day. Betting the big faves on the ML is not the correct strategy for long term success.

Welcome to the MLB!

Something to look out for though with action....as he said the bet proceeds even with a pitching change, but not at the same price.

If you originally have a bet on a team at -120 and there was a pitching change and the line moved to -140 you will now have that bet at -140 not -120.

There is really no reason to bet action in my mind unless you are sure that the team you bet is going to win no matter what and you don't care what juice you pay.

[Mr Handicapable]

Love 3 plays today!!

KC (-140) They played very well over the weekend and Meche has been nasty lately (last 3 starts 1.35 era/20 ks/20 ip)

Milw (-142) The Brewers should be right back into that horrible pen vs Sowers! Gallardo is nasty and they have all the momentum after last night!

Boston/Fish Over 9.5 (-120) Volstad is a solid young pitcher but only has a 5.30 ERA over his last 6 starts while Wake is at a 6.25 ERA over his last 6! The BoSox have scored 11 or more in 4 of 5 home starts for Wakefield this year! The Fish are also on a 5 straight Over streak!

[solobass]

Originally Posted by jellobiafra

solobass I have much respect for your handicapping, but how does your formula have De La Rosa as one of the top 5 pitchers going today? Do you factor in home and road splits? He is 0-4 with a 6.67 ERA at home. He's better that CC Sabathia today??

essentially yes. the formula takes the glitz out of the big names and the emotion out of the plays. here are the numbers

final rating k's/9 hr/9 k's to bb whip (home or away)
de la rosa 81.05 9.66 .8 2.25 1.33
cc 67.10 6.48 .67 2.31 1.19

with all of the factors, de la rosa has a better final rating. not everything i factor is listed here, especially how i weight the data. de la rosa has 72k's in 67.1 innings and that dominance gets factored in heavily especially against only 32 BB and only 6 homers given up with your home park being coors field. right now de la rosa is more dominant, but the rockies defense (worst in the majors) sells him up the river more often than not. anyway i have money on both of them so i hope they both win! just for comparison justin verlander's number is 139.84 for the day.

[thegenix]

Originally Posted by suicidekings

I'm on FLA, TB, CLE, but also the Giants. Sanchez at home is solid.

Cleveland is my team and I would highly suggest laying off Sowers. He's just god damn terrible.

[overdose.fR]

Originally Posted by cocknocker

After doing my homework I came up with a couple of plays for Tuesday's action.

Marlins+157 HEAVY False favorite in this game
Rays+120 HEAVY
Orioles-120 or less





**************************************** ***************

WHIP

TAM 1.45
COL 1.41

Advantage Rockies

Power ranking

TAM-117
COL+117

Line

TAM +120
COL-128

Advantage Tampa as there is a false favorite. With 75% of the bettors on their side the line for the favorite has decreased down to as low as -113 on some books down from -128. SO the line is performing correctly

Hi CH,

regarding the TAM/COL game, on vegasinsider I see that tehre are only 24% on COL, and the line went from -128 to -122, which indicates a RLM against TAM; regarding TAM, with 76% of bettors, the line went down from + 120 to +112

let me know your thoughts

[jellobiafra]

Thanks for the response solo. I still don't necessarily agree with the assessment (home ERA isn't high because his defense sells him out, imo...he's just inconsistent) as I can think of at least 3 or 4 better pitchers than DLR going today and not listed off the top of my head - CC, Guardado, Zambrano... maybe even Jurrjens, Millwood and Harang. Like I said, I really respect your formulamatic approach. Some of the things you math guys come up with make me scratch my head though.

Good luck!