[i_pick_winners1]

1. As stated in previous posts, back Cole Hamels and Tim Lincecum in every game they pitch this year. Each of these pitchers are going to win 20 games a piece, and are both turning into prime time pitchers. Lincecum has 4 number one pitches and Hamels has one of the nastiest change-ups in the history of the Majors. Don't be afraid to eat the chalk, as these two will be -200 to -300, especially at home, but regardless of offense -- they have the potential to SHUT TEAMS OUT & go the distance, meaning a win with just one or more runs from the offense, no matter how "hot" or "cold" they are. If you're scared of eating chalk and thinking about taking each of them -1.5 runs, DON'T. There were an uncountable number of games this last season when Hamels won by one run when the Phils offense sputters and when Lincecum was eeking out 1-0 wins as the backbone of a horrible Giants offense. The runline for these guys is NOT a winner.

2. Bet AGAINST Randy Johnson in every game he pitches. His falling from his prime started a couple years ago but hasn't been more evident than it was this year. He's only playing this season to reach the milestone of 500 wins, and will routinely enjoy getting touched up for four to five runs a game. He'll be -150 to -200 at home and with an ANEMIC Giants offense, may be a great pick to lose to several well bet underdogs. Examine these games closely. Randy Johnson WILL LOSE a lot this year.

3. The Yankees are NOT the lock of the century to do ANYTHING this year. This is a team that, not unlike our current economy, has spent so much money that if they do not produce results, will implode like our stock market. The Yankees have created such a financial bubble around their team that if they DON'T make the playoffs this year, attendance will deplete and the team will find themselves in debt. Just adding C.C. and Texiera does in NO WAY guarantee a playoff spot and as we learned last season, this team has a lot of kinks to work out. The Yanks, especially with C.C. on the mound will be in the -200 to -300 region, especially being at home, and could offer some underdog value if you pick your opposing teams correctly.

4. Dice-K may not even win 10 games this season. READ IT AGAIN : Dice-K may not even win 10 games this season. Anyone who watched Dice-K this last season had to have been surprised that ANY pitcher who walks that amount of people can continue to generate wins. It is a simple matter of math - if you walk 5+ batters a game, you can only get lucky and win games so many times. This is the year that batters begin to understand Dice-K's strengths and weaknesses and let him start walking home runs, as well as waiting for the bases to juice up and taking full advantage of it. There is no doubt that Dice-K will frequently be -200 to -300, especially at home, and there is some VERY good value in betting against him.

5. The Rays, despite being contenders last year, may only barely break .500. This team is young and despite having a KILLER pitching staff, they got lucky a number of times this past season resulting in their stint in the WS. Longoria, like Upton, Baldelli and others are talented, but don't necessarily understand the meaning of being clutch (as shown during the WS). Despite some talent, this team lacks EXPERIENCE. The addition of Burrell as DH will help their on base percentage (he walks a lot) and add a bit to the experience level, but it might not be enough of a spark for this team. Burrell has bordered on slumping majorly each of the last 3 seasons and at almost 35 years old with two shitty knees, this could be the season it happens. This team is going to be capped at well above their talent level due to their WS stint, and look for some value in opposition when the Rays are -200+ at home with Kazmir and co. pitching. Pick your dogs wisely.

6. The Brewers are awful. It's only a matter of time before Prince Fielder goes the way of Dmitry Young and either comes down with Type II Diabetes or just flat out loses his swing. When a 300 pound slob of a first basemen is the "spark" that gets your team going, there is a problem. This team lacks a big-time player to help spark serious results. There is only so much that a fat slob can do behind the plate when the time comes to actually be athletic. Their infield is a mess, and their pitching staff is also in turmoil. Look to take advantage of some dogs playing Milwaukee at home, as this team is definitely not playoff caliber for the 09 season.

7. The Cubs are going to ROLL. With the solid pitching lineup of Dempster, Hardin, Zambrano, Lilly and co., you're looking at four #1 pitchers. Add that to Lee, Ramirez and Soriano's bats with the rookie talent of Geovany Soto going to the next level, and you have the potential for a team to crush records this upcoming year. Fukodome and Johnson showed some serious ability this past season and will only hone their game even more in the 09' season. The Cubs will find their stride this year and tear off wins on a frequent basis. There may be some great value in Cubs games where they're -110 to -170, either home or away. You just simply cannot ignore above average pitching combined with above average hitting potential -- whether it's on the road or not.

8. Ignore/Bet Against the Marlins. There's nothing to think about with the Marlins this upcoming season. So called "breakout" seasons by Cantu, Ross, Uggla and co. can be disregarded as pitchers not knowing enough about the teams hitting tendencies to be prepared. The Marlins hit a **** TON of home runs during the 08' season but failed to play small ball and produce the clutch runs needed to make a playoff run. Put simply, the Marlins got very lucky and hit a lot of fastballs out of the park. According to baseball commentators this made them a "dangerous" hitting team, but according to me it makes them "unbalanced", "primitive", and "predictable". Take a look at Dan Uggla's 2008 All-Star game statistics and you'll see what I mean -- when facing some serious pitching, it's strikeouts and leaving runners stranded on third with less than two outs. Get used to this, the Marlins will start, fart, and fall.

9. The Cardinals will suck less, led by Kyle Lohse and MVP Pujols. The Cards had a pretty solid 08 team and will look to build on a mediocre season in 2009. Behind the pitching of Lohse, Pinerio, Wellemeyer and co., Pujols and Ankiel will continue to swing decent bats this season. This team had just enough spark behind it last year to lead them to believe that 09' will be a big season for them. They're going to enter the season with serious expectations of playoffs and will play accordingly. All-around high quality catcher Yadi Molina fills out an "above-average" hitting and fielding squad for the Cards this season. This is a team that's in the position to make a move in '09, so look for it.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

I couldn't of said it better myself. You are spot on!

[Kingctb27]

Pretty good stuff, but there is no way Lilly is a #1 starter in this league.

[Organized Rhyme]

Interesting post and good points. I cannot wait for baseball season to start again, as I make about 80% of my money through MLB. Looking forward to being a part of these forums this season too...didn't even realize it existed until a couple weeks ago.

Some other points that I have been looking into are:

1) the Padres as they look right now will lose over 100 games, and I think closer to 110. Take whoever they will be playing against that night.

2) whomever is the worst team in the AL East (Toronto, Baltimore) will lose a ton of games too.


I follow all teams, but because I live in Southern California, I follow the Dodgers, Angels, and Padres the most.

Can't wait 'till April...

[fifawcs]

The Reds will be an upset team this year. Pound the value while u can.

[i_pick_winners1]

Originally Posted by fifawcs

The Reds will be an upset team this year. Pound the value while u can.

I don't know about that one...

[fifawcs]

The Reds have a lot of talented young players, much like the Rays. They also just got a great catcher in Ramon Hernandez and a leadoff hitter in Willy Taveras. They are also looking into acquiring an RBI man for left field. They will be in the NL Central race with the Cubs.

[i_pick_winners1]

Maybe if Volquez deals hard and doesn't lose it at the end of the season like he did last season...

[jesron1269]

Originally Posted by i_pick_winners1

1. As stated in previous posts, back Cole Hamels and Tim Lincecum in every game they pitch this year. Each of these pitchers are going to win 20 games a piece, and are both turning into prime time pitchers. Lincecum has 4 number one pitches and Hamels has one of the nastiest change-ups in the history of the Majors. Don't be afraid to eat the chalk, as these two will be -200 to -300, especially at home, but regardless of offense -- they have the potential to SHUT TEAMS OUT & go the distance, meaning a win with just one or more runs from the offense, no matter how "hot" or "cold" they are.

2. Bet AGAINST Randy Johnson in every game he pitches. His falling from his prime started a couple years ago but hasn't been more evident than it was this year. He's only playing this season to reach the milestone of 500 wins, and will routinely enjoy getting touched up for four to five runs a game. He'll be -150 to -200 at home and with an ANEMIC Giants offense, may be a great pick to lose to several well bet underdogs. Examine these games closely.

3. The Yankees are NOT the lock of the century to do ANYTHING this year. This is a team that, not unlike our current economy, has spent so much money that if they do not produce results, will implode like our stock market. The Yankees have created such a financial bubble around their team that if they DON'T make the playoffs this year, attendance will deplete and the team will find themselves in debt. Just adding C.C. and Texiera does in NO WAY guarantee a playoff spot and as we learned last season, this team has a lot of kinks to work out. The Yanks, especially with C.C. on the mound will be in the -200 to -300 region, especially being at home, and could offer some underdog value if you pick your opposing teams correctly.

4. Dice-K may not even win 10 games this season. Anyone who watched Dice-K this last season had to have been surprised that ANY pitcher who walks that amount of people can continue to generate wins. It is a simple matter of math - if you walk 5+ batters a game, you can only get lucky and win games so many times. This is the year that batters begin to understand Dice-K's strengths and weaknesses and let him start walking home runs, as well as waiting for the bases to juice up and taking full advantage of it. There is no doubt that Dice-K will frequently be -200 to -300, especially at home, and there is some good value in betting against him.

5. The Rays, despite being contenders this year, will barely break .500. This team is young and despite having a KILLER pitching staff, they got lucky a number of times this past season resulting in their stint in the WS. Longoria, like Upton, Baldelli and others are talented, but don't necessarily understand the meaning of being clutch (as shown during the WS). Despite some talent, this team lacks EXPERIENCE. This team is going to be capped at well above their talent level due to their WS stint, and look for some value when the Rays are -200+ at home with Kazmir and co. pitching. Pick your dogs wisely.

6. The Brewers are awful. It's only a matter of time before Prince Fielder goes the way of Dmitry Young and either comes down with Type II Diabetes or just flat out loses his swing. There is only so much that a fat slob can do behind the plate when the time comes to actually be athletic. Their infield is a mess, and their pitching staff is also in turmoil. Look to take advantage of some dogs playing Milwaukee at home, as this team is definitely not playoff caliber for the 09 season.

7. The Cubs are going to ROLL. With the solid pitching lineup of Dempster, Hardin, Zambrano, Lilly and co., you're looking at four #1 pitchers. Add that to Lee, Ramirez and Soriano's bats with the rookie talent of Geovany Soto going to the next level, and you have the potential for a team to crush records this upcoming year. Fukodome and Johnson showed some serious ability this past season and will only hone their game even more in the 09' season. The Cubs will find their stride this year and tear off wins on a frequent basis. There may be some great value in Cubs games where they're -110 to -170, either home or away. You just simply cannot ignore above average pitching combined with above average hitting potential -- whether it's on the road or not.

8. Ignore/Bet Against the Marlins. There's nothing to think about with the Marlins this upcoming season. So called "breakout" seasons by Cantu, Ross, Uggla and co. can be disregarded as pitchers not knowing enough about the teams hitting tendencies to be prepared. The Marlins hit a **** TON of home runs during the 08' season but failed to play small ball and produce the clutch runs needed to make a playoff run. Put simply, the Marlins got very lucky and hit a lot of fastballs out of the park. According to baseball commentators this made them a "dangerous" hitting team, but according to me it makes them "unbalanced", "primitive", and "predictable". Take a look at Dan Uggla's 2008 All-Star game statistics and you'll see what I mean -- when facing some serious pitching, it's strikeouts and leaving runners stranded on third with less than two outs. Get used to this, the Marlins will start, fart, and fall.

9. The Cardinals will suck less, led by Kyle Lohse. The Cards had a pretty solid 08 team and will look to build on a mediocre season in 2009. Behind the pitching of Lohse, Pinerio, Wellemeyer and co., Pujols and Ankiel will continue to swing decent bats this season. This team had just enough spark behind it last year to lead them to believe that 09' will be a big season for them. They're going to enter the season with serious expectations of playoffs and will play accordingly. All-around high quality catcher Yadi Molina fills out an "above-average" hitting and fielding squad for the Cards this season. This is a team that's in the position to make a move in '09, so look for it.

Interesting read and I cannot say that I can disagree with much that you started. I have been a baseball fan all my life but only started sports betting late last year (so basically late regular season and post-season for baseball). I cannot wait this year for baseball season. When I bet last year I was pretty successful in baseball except for when I bet on my team (the Minnesota Twins). It always seem to me when I bet on them (typically ML bets) they lost but if I bet against them they won. My point being that I am either too much of a homer to see straight or I am looking at the wrong angles. Just out of curiosity what is your take on the Twins this year.

Thanks,


Jesse

[fifawcs]

Twins are going to be competitive once again. I think the AL Central is going to be between them and the Cleveland Indians. The White Sox will not be very good. Neither will the Tigers or Royals. Liriano is pretty badass. He's the only guy on that team with the ability to get strikeouts. The other 4 starters are more economical since they rely on the Twin's great defense.

[fifawcs]

BTW, the Rays will be good once again. They still have a great core of young players. And now with Pat the Bat at DH, I say they make the AL Wild Card.

[jesron1269]

Originally Posted by fifawcs

Twins are going to be competitive once again. I think the AL Central is going to be between them and the Cleveland Indians. The White Sox will not be very good. Neither will the Tigers or Royals. Liriano is pretty badass. He's the only guy on that team with the ability to get strikeouts. The other 4 starters are more economical since they rely on the Twin's great defense.

Thanks for the reply... that is what I like to hear. Joe Mauer just had surgery but is supposed to be ready when the pitchers and catchers report. I am hopping for a good season out of Liriano too but don't sleep on Scott Baker either because he is definately a top of the rotation type of starter. Slowey and Blackburn are #5 starters at best (but Radke was a #5 starter at best too that just always competed and Slowey reminds me of him). Perkins had a breakout year and could be a real treat for the Twins in the future. Most people do not know that Perkins was the Twins number one pitching prospect for years but never could stick with the club out of spring training. He was also a high first round draft pick. Hopefully he will pick up where he left off last year. I am frankly more concerned for the offense than pitching or defense. The biggest offseason move by the Twins has been the resigning of Alexi Casilla.

[fifawcs]

I agree. That is why I have Cleveland winning the AL Central this season. Cleveland has Cliff Lee, Carmona, Anthony reyes, Pavano, Laffey, among others starting for them. Now that they have Derosa playing 3rd, they have a pretty solid infield. C Victor Martinez, 1b Garko, 2B Asdrubal, SS Peralta, 3b Derosa. Their pen will also be much better this season with Kerry Wood at the back end. Maybe guys like Borowski and Perez will be better in 7th or 8th inning roles.

[jesron1269]

Originally Posted by fifawcs

I agree. That is why I have Cleveland winning the AL Central this season. Cleveland has Cliff Lee, Carmona, Anthony reyes, Pavano, Laffey, among others starting for them. Now that they have Derosa playing 3rd, they have a pretty solid infield. C Victor Martinez, 1b Garko, 2B Asdrubal, SS Peralta, 3b Derosa. Their pen will also be much better this season with Kerry Wood at the back end. Maybe guys like Borowski and Perez will be better in 7th or 8th inning roles.

Unfortunately I like Cleveland this year too and I think they will compete with the Twins all year round. I think Twins could pull it off but Cleveland has to be one of the favorites. I think that Cliff Lee comes back down to earth but Carmona greatly improves so that will be a wash. Martinez could not be worst and Peralta was clutch. Kerry Wood will be a drastic improvement at the closers role and one move that will payoff is the addition of Matt LaPorta in the DH role (I think that Hefner is done). That being said, I would not sleep on the White Sox either they might have improved their team through subtraction of their vet talent that did not get it done for them.

[fifawcs]

No. The White Sox only had the longball going for them last season. They were lucky to have made it as far as they did. Their starting 5 consists of two good pitchers. The rest are all question marks. The White Sox didn't gain much from the Swisher trade.

Is LaPorta going to be DH? Hafner isn't done yet. If he finds his stroke again, he will be as unstoppable as anyone. He has insane power.

If you want a solid money team for this season, take the Cincinnati Reds. They are my upset team of 2009.

[i_pick_winners1]

Mauer's a good ball player & Liriano is money, but I'm not sold on the Twins this year.

[ryanspeer2001]

While I don't think the Reds will win more than 80 games I see them being a HUGE value team. Even if they go 75-87 I'm guessing they will be around the +130 or more juice per game and paticularly higher when playing fan fav's the Cubs and Cardinals (+170 or more). Hell at the very worst they will be good bets against the lowly Pirates and depleted Brewers.

AND DO NOT FORGET THE PHILLIES. There WILL be value there all year. While its still a major market there is always value when Hamel's is not pitching and when he is even at -250 a game he is still profitable.

[EBone]

Originally Posted by i_pick_winners1

9. The Cardinals will suck less, led by Kyle Lohse. The Cards had a pretty solid 08 team and will look to build on a mediocre season in 2009. Behind the pitching of Lohse, Pinerio, Wellemeyer and co., Pujols and Ankiel will continue to swing decent bats this season. This team had just enough spark behind it last year to lead them to believe that 09' will be a big season for them. They're going to enter the season with serious expectations of playoffs and will play accordingly. All-around high quality catcher Yadi Molina fills out an "above-average" hitting and fielding squad for the Cards this season. This is a team that's in the position to make a move in '09, so look for it.

For me, it is hard to ignore the bullpen issues the Cards still have. They are sure to have some growing pains there in 2009. Lifelong Cards fan here and it is very frustrating to know that we finished 3 games out of the wildcard last year and led the league in blown saves along with a late season sweep by Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh.

All the kids (Mott, Perez, etc...) are gonna have to grow up real fast if the Cards are gonna make the playoffs this year.



E

[fifawcs]

Originally Posted by ryanspeer2001

While I don't think the Reds will win more than 80 games I see them being a HUGE value team. Even if they go 75-87 I'm guessing they will be around the +130 or more juice per game and paticularly higher when playing fan fav's the Cubs and Cardinals (+170 or more). Hell at the very worst they will be good bets against the lowly Pirates and depleted Brewers.

AND DO NOT FORGET THE PHILLIES. There WILL be value there all year. While its still a major market there is always value when Hamel's is not pitching and when he is even at -250 a game he is still profitable.

Please read my Cincinnati Reds scouting report. http://gardnerformvp.mlblogs.com. It may help you out when deciding to cap the Reds this season. The Reds will be the Rays of this season. They got rid of their old homer/strikeout players in Dunn and Griffey and have put together a group of young talented players. Their rise will come with the subsequent falls of the Brewers, Cards, and Astros. While I am convinced the Cubs will still win the Central, the Reds have a good shot at the Wild Card. The Reds have a solid bullpen and good starting pitching. Their starting 5: Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, and Micah Owings. They have Taveras leading off and playing CF, Ramon Hernandez at catcher, and Arthur Rhodes getting the ball to Cordero in the ninth. I am convinced they are going to end up trading for Nady, since Jocketty has been looking for an RBI bat for left field. If that ends up happening, they will contend for sure.

[byrneswhenIpeavy]

Originally Posted by fifawcs

The Reds will be an upset team this year. Pound the value while u can.

I semi-agree with your post here. The Reds appear to have a much better team than prior years. Pitching is the only concern I have with them. Not having Adam Dunn for a full year might be a lot more difficult than some people think...

[B1GER1C828]

ummm.i watched dice-k every game cuz im from boston, and have you seen him pitch? its great stuff, borderline unhittable. u'd also notice he didnt get many calls, and boston has an unbelievable pitching coach. Its his 3rd year, how bout you actually think bout it and realize hes gonna be incredible.

[ryanspeer2001]

Originally Posted by B1GER1C828

ummm.i watched dice-k every game cuz im from boston, and have you seen him pitch? its great stuff, borderline unhittable. u'd also notice he didnt get many calls, and boston has an unbelievable pitching coach. Its his 3rd year, how bout you actually think bout it and realize hes gonna be incredible.

From a purely baseball perspective I agree with this. Dice-K can pitch and can hold teams for an easy 6 innings a game. My only gripe with him is he holds little value bet wise for his results. I find him most profitable when you bet 5 inning lines with him at home though as the line will drop 30-60 pts compared to a full game line.

[i_pick_winners1]

Originally Posted by fifawcs

Please read my Cincinnati Reds scouting report. http://gardnerformvp.mlblogs.com. It may help you out when deciding to cap the Reds this season. The Reds will be the Rays of this season. They got rid of their old homer/strikeout players in Dunn and Griffey and have put together a group of young talented players. Their rise will come with the subsequent falls of the Brewers, Cards, and Astros. While I am convinced the Cubs will still win the Central, the Reds have a good shot at the Wild Card. The Reds have a solid bullpen and good starting pitching. Their starting 5: Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, and Micah Owings. They have Taveras leading off and playing CF, Ramon Hernandez at catcher, and Arthur Rhodes getting the ball to Cordero in the ninth. I am convinced they are going to end up trading for Nady, since Jocketty has been looking for an RBI bat for left field. If that ends up happening, they will contend for sure.

Harrang and Arroyo are going to get touched up again for big runs like they did last year. Owings swings a nice bat and has some good stuff and Volquez is money.

[i_pick_winners1]

Originally Posted by B1GER1C828

ummm.i watched dice-k every game cuz im from boston, and have you seen him pitch? its great stuff, borderline unhittable. u'd also notice he didnt get many calls, and boston has an unbelievable pitching coach. Its his 3rd year, how bout you actually think bout it and realize hes gonna be incredible.

It's this simple -- when you average as many walks per game as he does, it's going to catch up with you sooner or later.

[byrneswhenIpeavy]

Originally Posted by i_pick_winners1

It's this simple -- when you average as many walks per game as he does, it's going to catch up with you sooner or later.

exactly, way too many walks.

[i_pick_winners1]

Originally Posted by byrneswhenIpeavy

exactly, way too many walks.

THANK YOU, I'm glad I'm not the only person that thinks this.

[byrneswhenIpeavy]

Originally Posted by i_pick_winners1

THANK YOU, I'm glad I'm not the only person that thinks this.

I'm not saying he's a bad pitcher at all, but the sole reason he was an 18 game winner was because he was on one of the best teams. For example:

April 13th- 5 IP, 6 walks-WIN
May 5th- 5 IP, 8 walks-WIN
May 22nd- 5.2 IP, 6 walks-WIN

The trend continues T/O the season as well. There were only two starts when he did not give up a walk. Eventually, he is going to start losing some of these games.

[TPowell]

alright guys here is what I've gathered the last few days

BET THESE GUYS:

A.J. Burnett
Mark Buehrle
Aaron Cook
Javier Vasquez
Andy Pettite
Zach Greinke
Felix Hernandez
Chad Billingsley
Mike Mussina
Bronson Arroyo
Jon Garland
Zach Duke
Aaron Harang
Brian Bannister
Josh Beckett
Kevin Milwood
Kenny Rogers
Nate Robertson
Brandon Backe
Manny Parra
Ian Snell
Jonathan Sanchez
Odalis Perez
Carlos Silva
Doug Davis
Joel Pineiro
Wandy Rodriguez
Livan Hernandez
Garrett Olson
Brian Burres
Jorge De La Rosa
Boof Bonser
Randy Wolf
Miguel Batista
Darrell Rasner
Dustin McGowan
Jo Jo Reyes
Pedro Martinez
Kevin Correia
Andrew Miller
Clayton Kershaw
Adam Eaton
Brad Penny
Josh Rupe
Josh Johnson
Jamey Wright
Saul Rivera
Sidney Ponson
Manny Corpas
Sean Green
Clay Bucholtz
Shawn Hill
Phillip Hughes
Matt Chico

[TPowell]

I havent got that in depth yet but I plan on doing a Top 10 underrated and overrated list soon

[ATB515]

Bet on San Diego whenever they are At home and Peavy is pitching

[TPowell]

Dice K will be good fading material this year IMO. I think I recall his BABIP being around .260 last year. I'm sure that has to do with how good of a pitcher he is but I also think that it shows how unfamiliar batters still are with him.

[byrneswhenIpeavy]

Tpowell,

any way you can explain that list of pitchers that you posted? Just trying to wrap my head around betting some of those guys...

looking forward to mlb this year...

[TPowell]

the guys in bold all had a BABIP of over .320 and the ones not in bold still had a BABIP over .310. Those guys should have better luck this year and end up pitching better as a result

[jesron1269]

Nice list TPowell.... I would have to agree with you!

[jesron1269]

God, I cannot wait until baseball season starts!!!