[Andrewsurf]

It seems there is some early opinion on the board that the Red Sox will take game one. I love this board for handicapping, and respect many on here, but I really really like the Rays in this game, and think there is good reason to back them tonight.

Many signs point towards Boston as the strongest team left in the playoffs for multiple reasons. Defending champs, eliminated the 'supposed' best team in the playoffs, swept that 'best' team at home, by far better experience, pitching edge, etc.

On the other hand we have Tampa, a perennial loser, no playoff experience whatsoever other then the series they just won against arguably the worst team in the playoffs. Major question SO MANY keep asking: is this team for real?

Well the answer is... maybe? I don't personally know if this team is 'for real', but I do know they are for real enough to win this first game. Main points:

1. This Boston team got lucky, the Angels are a team that feels bullied by the Red Sox, winning the battles along the regular season, all while knowing the war was over, just like it was last year and years before that. Maybe the Angels will get over the hump one day, but we all saw the better team lose that series. I believe Lester is almost unbeatable in his current mindset, but other then that Boston made themselves beatable, and the Angels tried and tried but only Torii Hunter seemed to actually care when it came time to throw down. The Rays will not have that problem come clutch time. Don't forgot how close all the games were for Boston, this time that won't be a good thing for them.

2. Matsuzaka vs Shields, this is an obvious pitching discrepency despite Matsuzaka being pretty golden against the Rays this season. Rays are playing patient ball and getting it done. BJ Upton isn't going to make this staff look like little kids, as he did in the previous series, but he'll get his money shots, as will Longoria. Those two alone will be more explosive then 8 out of 9 Angels, the "BEST" team in the league these mighty Red Sox took out.

3. Rays at home, Rays haven't lost at home in this playoffs, doesn't mean that much, but this teams homefield advantage is formidable!

4. Joe Maddon.

Anyways, I could go on about this game forever, but in the end don't be wooed over by Boston's past, I honestly don't know how this series will end, and I give Boston the edge in game 2, PROBABLY, still need to think about that. But I got Tampa -117 tonight. I don't like to convince people to bet, but I LOVE this game tonight and think some of my points are valid.

BOL to everyone!

[tab]

I like Boston in game 1 and TB in Game 2. YOu are probably looking at SHield's Stats at home agaisnt the redsox in 2008. Shields was 2-0, 1.27 era against the redsox are tropicana. Shields was lucky in those starts that he did not have to face David ORtiz. David Ortiz is going to hit a homerun against Shields in game 1. If you are Ray's backer, you should wait til game 2 and than bet on the rays.

[Andrewsurf]

I'm not too concerned about Ortiz. Sure, he has had some success against Shields, but that was a long time ago. I don't think Shields missing Ortiz in the regular season will affect this game much.

Also what makes you think a guy who had... 0 home runs in the last series could do any better against Shields at Tropicana? I haven't based my pick on regular season trends. This is the playoffs, a whole different ball game. Shields steps up in game 1, Rays are more patient and balanced then the Sox.

Really, I don't think Ortiz is gonna blow up Shields, but even if he does, I like the Rays to score at least 3-4 and get the win.

[tab]

I like Daisuke Matsuzaka over James Shields in game 1. Daisuke did not have his best stuff in game 2 of the angels/redsox series. Daisuke stats were: 5 innings, 8 hits, 2 walks and 3 runs. Daisuke did not pitch well and the redsox won on a 2 run homer in the top of the ninth. I predict Daisuke to pitch well in this game and he will pitch into the 7th inning. Daisuke has given certain rays hitters a lot of problems.

Rays hitters vs Daisuke
Upton 1/13, hr
Navarro 3/18
Barlett 1/11
Floyd 0/5
Bartlett 1/11

[Wilforth]

It's hard to fade Dice-K on the road.
I'd take Red Sox FF.

[dmiles1021]

Sox will win the World Series!!!!

[fifawcs]

Red Sox. Dice-K is great on the road and they are better than the Rays. The Rays have better bullpen, starting pitching, and defense. However, they Rays aren't marginally better than the Sox in that category. The Red Sox offense is much better than the Rays. That's why the Red Sox have the overall advantage. They have a comparably pitching, bullpen, and defense. While the Rays have a slight advantage in that category, if they are lacking in the Offense department, boston will own them.

[ryanXL977]

dice k is possibly the most overrated sp in baseball.
tb wins today. they dont lose at home. ortiz is garbage, varitek is garbage. lowell is hurt. ill take shields at -110 at home anyday
dice k is not bad, but he also wont go past 5-6

rays win this one

[Andrewsurf]

Originally Posted by ryanXL977

dice k is possibly the most overrated sp in baseball.
tb wins today. they dont lose at home. ortiz is garbage, varitek is garbage. lowell is hurt. ill take shields at -110 at home anyday
dice k is not bad, but he also wont go past 5-6

rays win this one

Dice-K will not make it to the 6th inning.

[polishkielbasa10]

did someone just say the Redsox got LUCKY against the Angels...are u kidding me? That sox team was superior in Every aspect of every game, including the only game they lost...This should be a quick series..sox in 5 or less..they are better in every aspect in this series..and if you're asking, well definately not pitching or hitting?...**See the Angels Series**
They were supposed to get shut down and dominated in that series..this is the Sox's time of year...gotta take them and the series

[ryanXL977]

arent you the guy who said tb was lucky to be in the loffs? or a fluke

laa could have won that series, bosox are better, but laa could have won a few games

[polishkielbasa10]

yes, I believe the Rays are a fluke..the whitesox are terrible and could have pushed that series deep..This is the sox time of year. The rays will be lucky to win 1. They haven't seen pressure like the're gonna see in this series..A big game pitcher at every level (matsusaka) vs. shields(shaky) I'm guessing 6-2 or a 6-1 for Boston. If Boston can take just 1 in TB this series is over and won't go back there

[ryanXL977]

a fluke eh? a 162 game fluke. you are msoking dude.
dice k is not a big game pitcher, he wasnt good vs the angels and he will lose today
anyone who says this team is a fluke didnt watch them all year long

[Andrewsurf]

Originally Posted by Andrewsurf

Dice-K will not make it to the 6th inning.

Dice is throwin a no-no through 5, just comin in here hoping to break it up. Tight game, not over yet, but Dice is doing his job no surprise.

[polishkielbasa10]

big game pitcher at every level. 9-0 on the road. Nuff said. Take the ace and the sox tonight in a rout