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09-26-2008, 10:56 AM
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#1 | ||||
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To Hedge or Not to Hedge
Can you guys help me out with this one? At the beginning of the baseball season, I layed $575 to win $500 on Kansas City wins over 73.5. SInce it was so long ago and the $575 not part of my current bankroll, I am viewing it as a potential $1,075 with no downside. They only have to win one game in Minnesota. Tonight, do I start laying several hundred on the Twins, knowing they are likely to win? If I lose, I still collect most of $1,075 and and I win, there is still two more games left. Tomorrow, I do the same, but I lose, I collect the full $1075 since I am only losing the few hundred profit from tonight. If I win, I have Sunday left. Or should I let it ride? I would really appreciate any feedback you guys have.
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09-26-2008, 11:28 AM
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#2 | ||||
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3 To1 ODDS Let It Ride My Opinion
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09-26-2008, 12:04 PM
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Hedge on last game if they can't win either of the first two.
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09-26-2008, 12:12 PM
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I'd bet the first two games...
Say 200 to win on game 1... Min wins... you win 200. Min loses, you lose 200 but win your prop bet (You said you count it as +1075, so in this case you are +875) Game 2 (assuming Min won game 1) you bet 400. Min loses, you lose 400 but win your prop bet (+1275 - 400 = +875) Game 3 (assuming Min won game 2), you let it ride. If Min wins, thats okay, you profited $600 from this exchange. If Kansas City wins, you now made $1675! Something like that.
__________________
MLB Spreadsheet MLB Season: 71-80-2 (-9.41 Units) 7/10-7/12: 0-6-0 (-6.18 Units) 4/28-5/05: 2-11-1 (-9.65 Units) Nothing kills a season like brutal cold streaks... Quote:
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09-26-2008, 12:12 PM
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#5 | ||||
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There's still quite decent change Minnesota might be able to sweep. If you wan't to play if safe, starting with few hundred and betting the original stake + all proceedings on the Twins ml each game might be good way to go.
That would be equivalent of betting Minnesota to sweep. Individual game odds might not be that high, but 3 games combined should pay OK. Last edited by juuso; 09-26-2008 at 12:20 PM.. |
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09-26-2008, 12:33 PM
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I would wait for the last game.
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09-26-2008, 01:31 PM
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I would Hedge in the game vs Meche. Meche will most likely win and they will most likely be favored.
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http://kingctb27.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/ |
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09-26-2008, 07:12 PM
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Quote:
But it won't get to that. The Royals will win one of the first two.
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Red Sox all the way |
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