mlb noobie question: + or - 1.5 lines???

mundane · 04-04-2008, 05:51 AM

i bet basketball so im not used to spreads constantly being + or - 1.5.

i find it baffling.

and correct me if im wrong but i check the ending scores and most of them are being decided by 1.

so even if u bet the underdog, u still win by a hook which sucks i guess if u capped and bet on the favor to win the game.

so i guess my question is, which is better or what do baseball bettors bet on - moneyline or spread in baseball? if there is ever such a thing as a better to bet on.

imo, in basketball most people bet on the spreads becoz moneylines are just too big sometimes dat itz not worth the risk. but in baseball, from what i could see from my newbie eyes, i dont see anything dat is over -200.

DukeJohn · 04-04-2008, 06:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mundane

i bet basketball so im not used to spreads constantly being + or - 1.5.

i find it baffling.

and correct me if im wrong but i check the ending scores and most of them are being decided by 1.

so even if u bet the underdog, u still win by a hook which sucks i guess if u capped and bet on the favor to win the game.

so i guess my question is, which is better or what do baseball bettors bet on - moneyline or spread in baseball? if there is ever such a thing as a better to bet on.

imo, in basketball most people bet on the spreads becoz moneylines are just too big sometimes dat itz not worth the risk. but in baseball, from what i could see from my newbie eyes, i dont see anything dat is over -200.

I stick mainly to the moneyline. It is very rare when I move into the runline. (runline is the +1.5 or -1.5) I am not saying you can't find value in the runline, but I personally just don't use it much.

mundane · 04-04-2008, 06:13 AM

i see, thanks DukeJohn for the reply.

KaidenDager · 04-04-2008, 07:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mundane

i bet basketball so im not used to spreads constantly being + or - 1.5.

i find it baffling.

and correct me if im wrong but i check the ending scores and most of them are being decided by 1.

so even if u bet the underdog, u still win by a hook which sucks i guess if u capped and bet on the favor to win the game.

so i guess my question is, which is better or what do baseball bettors bet on - moneyline or spread in baseball? if there is ever such a thing as a better to bet on.

imo, in basketball most people bet on the spreads becoz moneylines are just too big sometimes dat itz not worth the risk. but in baseball, from what i could see from my newbie eyes, i dont see anything dat is over -200.

I too am very new to betting on bases, but I believe I can explain the main difference here. In NCAA basketball there are match-ups (think first round #1 seeds) that if you played out 10 times, 1 team would win 10 times. That is not quite true in baseball. It is possible for that team to win 10 times, though it is much more probable that the two teams would split the series with the "better" team taking 6-7 and the "worse" team taking 3-4. This is the main reason money lines in baseball do not rise quite so sharply as basketball lines, though you will occasionally see higher lines.

The run-line @ + or - 1.5 is for games where the money line does not prove valuable but a team is dominant to warrant an advantage. For instance tomorrow I am taking the Milwaukee Brewers @ -1.5 because I believe that they should win and that if they win it will be by more than 1 run. In this case the Brewers bats are clearly better than the Giants bats. It is entirely possible however that the Brewers could get shut out and dominated by the Giants. I find value however in that this will occur a very small amount of the time vs. MIL winning by more than 1 run.

Hope that helped a little.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that it is extremely unlikely to make a decent profit betting teams at -200 or more in baseball. If you tracked 1 team through a season betting every game and the team was exactly at -200 for every game then that team would have to win 108 games before you were guranteed a profit. A very very remarkable feat in baseball.

Wyndham · 04-04-2008, 08:45 AM

Both. It would be less profitable to bet exclusively on one or the other.

I take underdog (+) moneylines and -1.5s with good plus value. It works very well for me. (MLB BB Thread YTD: 4-5, 44%, +14.85u.) You probably won't top 60% on the year, and you may not even top 50%, but you'll cruise to profit.

LT Profits · 04-04-2008, 09:32 AM

The right answer is NEITHER. Just stick to moneylines and totals.

I have never seen a team have a profitable season vs. the -1.5 line, so people that try and spot play these are starting with a disadvanatge. I don't think there is a capper alive that could overcome that and win long term at -1.5.

As for the +1.5, the juice will eat you alive. Your Moneyline odds on the underdogs is enough in the long term to do better than talking the +1.5 at fat odds, where you are in effect turning an underdog into a favorite.

Wyndham · 04-04-2008, 01:25 PM

I don't see why one can't "overcome" any -1.5 disadvantage. I feel capable of capping a decided edge to a profitable long-term outcome. You've gotta pick and choose, and more importantly be disciplined, but it's possible. For instance, I had a 10* (play of the year-type play) RL at great value on opening day, and it cashed (with ease) which has set me up for a long run. I'd have to lose and lose and lose to simply fall back to even, nevermind down.

I'm willing to revisit this thread in a few months. While I also bet underdog MLs (making it hard to figure out exact profit), I'd wager I'm in profit.

(Edit: For the record, I'm up big on the NHL season and that's with a mix of underdog MLs and -1.5s. I also feel that it's easier to cash MLB RLs than NHL -1.5s. There's more runs in baseball than goals in hockey and better teams more often crush bad teams in baseball than they do in hockey. I do, however, completely agree about single +1.5 plays in baseball. I only ever use them in parlays, and even then it's rare.)

OLGC_Slayer · 04-04-2008, 01:33 PM

I am playing the Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 today and totally OK with it. I think they will easily beat the Giant by 2 runs.

LT Profits · 04-04-2008, 02:11 PM

Wyndham,

When I said no team has ever had a winning season vs. the -1.5 line, I was basing that on one unit risked per play. If I am unserstanding you correctly, you won a 10-unit play at -1.5, and are now saying you could lose a string of smaller wagers and still be up. The challenge would be to try and show a profit at -1.5 betting the same amount every game, and I just don't think that's possible. Plus, I think it's poor money management to vary your units that much from play to play.