04-21-08, 09:01 AM
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#1
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Heads Up: Unique situation in MLB Today!
Gang,
Ok, here is a new one. Here is a tip for a two step progression today in MLB. Around 85% of the time either the heaviest favored runline team and/or the second heaviest favored runline team win each day. Today is one of those rare days where the #1 and #2 favored runline teams are playing at different times of the day. Atlanta plays @ 610pm CST and AZ plays @ 940 pm CST. So.........I am going to put this little system in play today with the two step progression:
Wager #1 will be: 1 unit on Atlanta -1.5(+110). If it wins...series is over and I collect a profit of 1.1 units.
If I loose on wager #1 ...
Wager #2 will be: 2 units on AZ -1.5(+100). AZ wins and I collect a series profit of 1 unit.
Simple as that!
Note: Same teams playing tomorrow (early and late) and could potentially offer the same potentials! This could allow for a 4 step progression if you combined the two days events and played them in order. Just a thought.
Good Luck to Anyone that follows on this!!
Last edited by PLUSLINES; 04-21-08 at 10:45 AM.
Reason: edit times of Atlanta game
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04-21-08, 02:54 PM
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#2
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your first game may not be over by the time game 2 starts
shoulda used the red sox
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04-21-08, 04:50 PM
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#3
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Some times it does occur this way, but often times these games will be a little earlier and isn't an issue. Also, sometimes the game is far enough along that you can get a decent read on the result and can make a fairly informed decision on what action to take or not to take.
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04-21-08, 04:53 PM
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#4
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I'm not sure how to respond to this, so i will just wish you gl.
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04-21-08, 06:01 PM
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#5
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Thanks!
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04-21-08, 06:27 PM
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#6
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Good luck today PL. I've noticed that Arizona has covered the RL in 12 of their 13 wins.
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04-21-08, 07:20 PM
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#7
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These are independent events and have nothing to do with each other covering or not covering.
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04-21-08, 07:33 PM
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#8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arnold
These are independent events and have nothing to do with each other covering or not covering.
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Seems that goes without saying ...doesn't it? 
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04-21-08, 08:17 PM
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#9
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Winner anyway so congrats !!!
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12,665
SBR POKER TOP 100 19th Place 11/1/2011
$75 9500pts
SBR POKER CHAMPIONSHIP 4th Place 2/19/2011
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04-21-08, 08:24 PM
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#10
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At the end of the day...if we win....all that really matters is that I know somewhere out there I helped someone make some money for themselves, their family, or both. That is all I care about.
Best of Luck To Everyone!
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04-21-08, 10:03 PM
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#11
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Congrats to anyone that played along!!!!!
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04-21-08, 10:07 PM
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#12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PLUSLINES
At the end of the day...if we win....all that really matters is that I know somewhere out there I helped someone make some money for themselves, their family, or both. That is all I care about.
Best of Luck To Everyone!
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Yes, you got lucky one day. Tomorrow you will help lose whatever you helped win today. I think we need to be more realistic about our abilities to help others.
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04-21-08, 10:10 PM
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#13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arnold
Yes, you got lucky one day. Tomorrow you will help lose whatever you helped win today. I think we need to be more realistic about our abilities to help others.
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85% of the time we get lucky doing this. Luck? Hmm??? Maybe there is something to it...ya think?
I see the Boo Birds are out tonight...
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04-21-08, 10:15 PM
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#14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PLUSLINES
Seems that goes without saying ...doesn't it? |
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04-21-08, 10:15 PM
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#15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PLUSLINES
85% of the time we get lucky doing this. Luck? Hmm??? Maybe there is something to it...ya think?
I see the Boo Birds are out tonight...
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nothing to offer but congrats on a 1-0
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04-21-08, 10:26 PM
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#16
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Thanks Mo for your positive input!!
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04-21-08, 10:31 PM
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#17
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Congrats on the win PL...I took the RL for both games as well.
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04-21-08, 10:36 PM
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#18
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On Arizona RL and played Cubs RL from Curious' thread. Nice play with Atlanta! I am glad to see plays involving RL bets.
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04-21-08, 10:42 PM
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#19
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Thanks guys for the encouraging posts. With Atlanta winning -1.5 on game 1, there would not be a play for AZ unless you were going for the 4 step progression involving Tuesdays ATL and AZ runlines
Congrats to Everyone who cashed
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04-21-08, 10:49 PM
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#20
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Continuation from todays win...
Wager #1 will be: 1 unit on Atlanta -1.5(+106). If it wins...series is over and I collect a profit of 1.1 units.
If I loose on wager #1 ...
Wager #2 will be: 2 units on AZ -1.5(-105). AZ wins and we collect a series profit of 1 unit.
Good Luck to All!!
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04-21-08, 11:06 PM
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#21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PLUSLINES
85% of the time we get lucky doing this. Luck? Hmm??? Maybe there is something to it...ya think?
I see the Boo Birds are out tonight...
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Ah, OK, another 85% bettor.
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04-22-08, 07:18 AM
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#22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arnold
Ah, OK, another 85% bettor.
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Hey numbskull, Maybe you should do the research yourself before making judgement and criticizing others work. I have done the research and stand behind the results posted. If after you do the research, why dont you post what you find.
If you would spend less time focusing on criticizing, and more time conducting your own research, perhaps you would get better results
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04-22-08, 07:54 AM
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#23
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Good job plus lines. I see that you do well on runlines. I really liked the braves on monday and took them on the runline. Some people cannot appreciate others and are just criiticizing everyone on this forum. I do like one play for friday with Detroit Tigers -1.5 runs. Ervin Santana (3-0, 2.67 era) will pitch against Nate Robertson (0-2, 7.48 era). I see the moneyline being at -110 either way. I know that Santana is due for a loss and he was the worst away pitcher in the majors in 2007 going 1-10 with 8.38 era. The tigers got back Granderson and he is threat to get on base, steal bases, score runs and drive in runs. The tigers are going to be really good value on the runline. The Tigers -1.5 runs probably is going to be +170. The last 2 times Santana has pitched at tiger stadium, he has lost 12-0 in 2007 and 9-0 in 2006. Nate Robertson is a veteran left hander who has struggled so far this season. He will make adjustments with his mechanics and have a qualilty start on friday.
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04-22-08, 08:02 AM
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#24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tab
Good job plus lines. I see that you do well on runlines. I really liked the braves on monday and took them on the runline. Some people cannot appreciate others and are just criiticizing everyone on this forum. I do like one play for friday with Detroit Tigers -1.5 runs. Ervin Santana (3-0, 2.67 era) will pitch against Nate Robertson (0-2, 7.48 era). I see the moneyline being at -110 either way. I know that Santana is due for a loss and he was the worst away pitcher in the majors in 2007 going 1-10 with 8.38 era. The tigers got back Granderson and he is threat to get on base, steal bases, score runs and drive in runs. The tigers are going to be really good value on the runline. The Tigers -1.5 runs probably is going to be +170. The last 2 times Santana has pitched at tiger stadium, he has lost 12-0 in 2007 and 9-0 in 2006. Nate Robertson is a veteran left hander who has struggled so far this season. He will make adjustments with his mechanics and have a qualilty start on friday.
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Thanks Tab! I appreciate your feedback.
Good Luck on your plays!!
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04-24-08, 06:08 PM
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#25
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Today is another example of one of the top 2 favored runline teams winning on the runline. Detroit and Cincinnati were the two heaviest favored when I recorded the lines earlier in the day around 11 am CST. Detroit beat Texas.
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04-25-08, 05:28 AM
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#26
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interesting stuff pluslines. how long did you track the most favored run lines to get that 85%?
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04-25-08, 05:31 AM
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#27
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GL man im on the D backs tomorrow so hopefully they hit for me!
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04-25-08, 01:56 PM
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#28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PLUSLINES
Hey numbskull, Maybe you should do the research yourself before making judgement and criticizing others work. I have done the research and stand behind the results posted. If after you do the research, why dont you post what you find.
If you would spend less time focusing on criticizing, and more time conducting your own research, perhaps you would get better results
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Lets here more about your research. Lets start with the sample size.
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04-25-08, 04:19 PM
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#29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arnold
Lets here more about your research. Lets start with the sample size.
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07 MLB Season
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04-25-08, 04:39 PM
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#30
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If these bets are +EV, they should be +EV regardless of the betting progression. What does a second unrelated game have to do with the first game?
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04-25-08, 05:04 PM
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#31
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I think he is just betting on the fact that the biggest favorite on a run line any given night hit 85% of the time last year.
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04-25-08, 05:59 PM
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#32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PLUSLINES
07 MLB Season
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I asked for a sample size, not which season your sample is from.
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04-25-08, 06:15 PM
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#33
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Perhaps that means it was every night in the 07 MLB season. I could be wrong though.
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04-25-08, 06:30 PM
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#34
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not sure I understand because the lines are not the same everywhere . so saying who the 2 biggest whatever was or is would vary depending on where you get the lines ...
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04-25-08, 08:21 PM
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#35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chipski
not sure I understand because the lines are not the same everywhere . so saying who the 2 biggest whatever was or is would vary depending on where you get the lines ...
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as long as he keeps the place where he gets the odds as a constant, it should be ok.
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