[jorge1]

Okay, ive been giving this thought lately and hopefully some of you, SENIOR MEMBERS and NEWBIES alike, can shed some light or discuss this.

Its quite simple: If i feel about 70% sure about winning each game, doesnt it make sense to play one game daily rather than 2, 3 or even more?

If i play 3 games, for example, i get this:

Percentage of winning all three games: .70*.70*.70 = .49

So there is a 49% chance you sweep, compared to 70% chance you win if you just play the one play.


70% chance of winning at -110 odds ONE 330$ bet = 300 WON

vs

49% chance of winning at -110 odds THREE 110$ bets = 300 WON

But how do i crunch the numbers to know what percentage of winning 2 of 3 or 1 of 3?

I know theoretically if you have 70% chance of winning each game individually, then it doesnt matter if you play 10 games or 1 game today..in the long run you SHOULD hit 70% regardless..but there has to be an explanation or something that you can compute in to take into account: 1) how much harder it gets once you wager more and more wager per day...thus making your chances of making money DECREASE.

There must be something to explain the difference between betting more and betting less bets per day, etc...

[thebestthereis]

One per day is the way, if u are good you will make money.

[jorge1]

Thanks for the insight...DEEP man...DEEP! lol...nah, im kidding..but thanks for commenting!

[WvGambler]

The problem is Jorge that very rarely do you ever hit at a 70% rate. Good cappers still only hit at about 54%. If you play numerous games a day, in the long run you are only guranteeing that you will lose 46%. The more you hit....the more liklihood that the law of averages will cause you to lose the next game. It's just mathematical fact...I hope that makes sense because I have reread it 10 times and I am not sure it does. Either way, one play a day is the way to go. But I dont have the discipline to do it. GL my man.

[jorge1]

yeah ive been going 1 play a day for about two weeks now and so far im 10-2...today i played an additional 2 plays and both of them very shaky..JAJAJAJA

1 play a day..DISCIPLINE!

[Sawyer]

One play a day is the way to go. Combine it with Labouchere Strategy and you will make money even with %40

[Sawyer]

Originally Posted by jorge1

yeah ive been going 1 play a day for about two weeks now and so far im 10-2...today i played an additional 2 plays and both of them very shaky..JAJAJAJA

1 play a day..DISCIPLINE!

You can build very loooooooooong winning streaks when you play 1 pick/day. Discipline is important. Joe Public loves action so they jump on every game on board.

Btw, %70 is impossible over long haul. %55-56 is good, good enough to make money

[jorge1]

Yeah, I hear you Sawyer..Its crazy how you get this itch to wanna win MORE and MORe just in one day, but the reality is that there is ONE or TWO plays a day you can really get a hold of. I am beginning to think that its not like all your bets you are 70% on...its actually more like you have one that you are 80%, one 70, one 60%, etc etc..

In reality it looks like this: .8*.7*.6=33.6% chance you actually SWEEP...

There has to be some mathematical approximation as to percentage error increasing as the pick number increases...But why even break your brain trying to compute...


DISCIPLINE = 1 maybe 2 a day IF ANY...

SAWYER, believe it or not, i have learned a lil from ya...i ALWAYS ALWAYS notice how you say PICK YOUR SPOTS and you only play one play at a time...I definetely am a believer now...and i feel renewed..not like ill be rich or anything, but i feel like i will be SO MUCH more succesfull now betting less

[jorge1]

WHich one is LABOUCHERE again? sorry!

[WvGambler]

Isnt that the add the end of the line number to the beggining of the line number to find out your bet price? Like you say 1-10 (just pick an amount that your bankroll can handle) and add the 1 with the ten=$11 bet. If you hit it, then you move on and add 2 with 9= another 11$ bet. If you hit it then you add three and 8.......if you lose you add another number to the end and start over.....which would be 1-11. 1+11=12$ bet. It's like a chase system. Or i could be completely wrong.

[lakerboy]

one play a day is not the way to go. in bases there is more than 1 game each day where you have an edge.

[jorge1]

OH OKAY...yeah, i know which one it is now...

sawyer, is that the one?

[jorge1]

LB, i agree, but IN MY CASE, im not as good determining the edge on so many games...Also, I know you have great ways of figuring out edges based on lines and line movement, and trust me, ive been trying to lear that as well, but for now, playing several games has not worked out for me...at least not as well as keep the game count low...

[WvGambler]

According to thegamblesociety.com

The Labouchere betting strategy like all betting strategy is a numbers game. It is Mathematically sound until you either run out of money or until you reach the Table limits, either one then spells disaster.


The idea of the Labouchere strategy is to work through one complete set of numbers and collect your profit. The labouchere strategy works like this. Write a sequence of numbers down on a piece of paper 1 2 3 4 5 6. The idea is you bet using both ends of your numbered sequence. So your first bet would be 1+ 6 = 7. Your first bet would be $7. If you win the bet great you then cross out number 1 and 6, as you have used them already. You would then bet the next to outside numbers in the sequence, which would be 2+ 5 = 7. which again would be $7 you also win this bet great you bet 3+4 again = 7 or $7 win the bet your home free and $21 up.


However if you bets lose you add the total of the bet to the end of the sequence and carry on the game. Example. If your first bet was 1+ 6 = 7. and you bet $7 and lost. You would then add the number 7 to the end of your sequence which would now look like this. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7. You then proceed with your Labouchere betting strategy and bet the first and last numbers 1 + 7 = 8. The problem with this strategy is if you have a lot of losses you can end up with a very long sequence of numbers and no money left, As like all betting systems they have their pitfalls.


The Labouchere betting strategy is whats known as a negative progressive system also known as "Crossout", "Cancellation" or "Split Martingale" system so be ware of it in all its forms and tread carefully when using it.

[MrTwiz]

Originally Posted by jorge1

Okay, ive been giving this thought lately and hopefully some of you, SENIOR MEMBERS and NEWBIES alike, can shed some light or discuss this.

Its quite simple: If i feel about 70% sure about winning each game, doesnt it make sense to play one game daily rather than 2, 3 or even more?

If i play 3 games, for example, i get this:

Percentage of winning all three games: .70*.70*.70 = .49

So there is a 49% chance you sweep, compared to 70% chance you win if you just play the one play.


70% chance of winning at -110 odds ONE 330$ bet = 300 WON

vs

49% chance of winning at -110 odds THREE 110$ bets = 300 WON

But how do i crunch the numbers to know what percentage of winning 2 of 3 or 1 of 3?

I know theoretically if you have 70% chance of winning each game individually, then it doesnt matter if you play 10 games or 1 game today..in the long run you SHOULD hit 70% regardless..but there has to be an explanation or something that you can compute in to take into account: 1) how much harder it gets once you wager more and more wager per day...thus making your chances of making money DECREASE.

There must be something to explain the difference between betting more and betting less bets per day, etc...

Last time i checked this equaled .343

[Sawyer]

Dont use 1-2-3-4-5-6-7,

Use 1-1-1-1. (%1 each)

Less risk is involved in labouchere since your bank can stand even after losing 8-9 in a row.

Bank 1000

10-10-10-10

you risk x to win 20. (-110 = 22 risk, +100 = 20 risk)

lets assume odds are EVEN.

you lose 4 in a row.

10-10-10-10-20-30-40-50

then you win

10-10-10-20-30-40

lost

10-10-10-20-30-40-50

win

10-10-20-30-40

win

10-20-30-40

lost

10-20-30-40-50

win

20-30-40

lost

20-30-40-60

win

30-40

win

You went 5-7 (%41) but series completed, you made 40 units profit.

[jorge1]

WV, thanks man..Sounds good. I used to do somethings similar to this, however, I also like playing with an adjustable bankroll...but what ill try to do is do a series like this:

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

once i beat this line ill hit up 1.5 times that line and so on and so forth...we'll see.

[jorge1]

Yeah, it doestn equal .49...that is 7 times 7..lol... thanks for pointing this out.

SAWYER...i might try doing that with 1% or 2%...but do you do it with an adjustable BR, or flat BR for one line, then once you kill the line adjust BR percentages?>

[WvGambler]

Originally Posted by jorge1

Yeah, it doestn equal .49...that is 7 times 7..lol... thanks for pointing this out. SAWYER...i might try doing that with 1% or 2%...but do you do it with an adjustable BR, or flat BR for one line, then once you kill the line adjust BR percentages?>

Yea that confuses me too.....with that system, arent you just always betting the same amount no matter what the bankroll is? or do you just adjust the bankroll percentage at the end of a specific time period (week, month)?

[snapperman2]

You should bet as many games per day as you think you have an edge with. Otherwise you are decreasing your daily profits. If you bet only one game per day, then there is a limit to the percentage of your bankroll you can risk on that game (maybe 1 - 2%) without risking the loss of your whole bankroll from an unlucky streak of losses. But if you bet more games per day you can risk up to 1 - 2% of your bankroll on each game, thus increasing your money in play that day and your profits, if you have an advantage. Of course, if you only think you can get an advantage on one game, then that is the only game you should bet on. And any system where you chase your losses is guaranteed to lose you your whole bankroll when you hit an unlucky streak. These systems should be avoided at all cost.

[jorge1]

Originally Posted by snapperman2

You should bet as many games per day as you think you have an edge with. Otherwise you are decreasing your daily profits. If you bet only one game per day, then there is a limit to the percentage of your bankroll you can risk on that game (maybe 1 - 2%) without risking the loss of your whole bankroll from an unlucky streak of losses. But if you bet more games per day you can risk up to 1 - 2% of your bankroll on each game, thus increasing your money in play that day and your profits, if you have an advantage. Of course, if you only think you can get an advantage on one game, then that is the only game you should bet on. And any system where you chase your losses is guaranteed to lose you your whole bankroll when you hit an unlucky streak. These systems should be avoided at all cost.

Snapperman, Theoretically, I agree. You do limit your winnings by playing less games but I also believe since the books have LIMITELESS pockets, the name of our game isnt WINNING money...I think it is NOT LOSING money...sounds like monkey jabber, but As long as your strategy is to LIMIT the chances of loss, then you are okay.

Theoretically, if you feel you have a 70% edge on two games, then you should play both of them, period...but Not all of us play just MATHEMATICALLY...I actually grade my plays. So ill be about say 80% sure of my number one play...70% of my second, and so on and so forth.

But HOW SURE can you be of a play anywyas? Even winning teams loose 40% of the time so the perspective, or the way I LOOK AT IT is, Limit your chances of losing...limit your RISKS, instead of INCREASING your potential...

Every game is a potential loss, so less games, more winning. I think it all boils down to games you really have a good good feel for...if you have 4 good good games with an edge (all of them), i rather play my BEST one for say 400 bucks, than play 4 100 dollar bets...

check out my ONE A DAY thread...maybe im a wimp and cannot handle capping 5 or 6 games a day and hit high percentages, but so far im 11-2 in the last two weeks of limiting the amount of games i play...

perhaps im just lucky...

thanks for the insight though..I think there is a human factor which cannot be explained mathematically for percentage of error rising when you try to focus on more and more games...I spend a good 2 to 3 hours on one game...how could i do that with 5 or 6 a day?

[swagger]

Originally Posted by snapperman2

You should bet as many games per day as you think you have an edge with. Otherwise you are decreasing your daily profits. If you bet only one game per day, then there is a limit to the percentage of your bankroll you can risk on that game (maybe 1 - 2%) without risking the loss of your whole bankroll from an unlucky streak of losses. But if you bet more games per day you can risk up to 1 - 2% of your bankroll on each game, thus increasing your money in play that day and your profits, if you have an advantage. Of course, if you only think you can get an advantage on one game, then that is the only game you should bet on. And any system where you chase your losses is guaranteed to lose you your whole bankroll when you hit an unlucky streak. These systems should be avoided at all cost.

Originally Posted by jorge1

the name of our game isnt WINNING money...I think it is NOT LOSING money...sounds like monkey jabber, but As long as your strategy is to LIMIT the chances of loss, then you are okay.

I agree that you shouldn't play 6-7+ games a day but at the same time disagree at playing only 1 a day. Its about maximizing profits, not limiting losses. The idea for not losing money is when you're playing casino games, since they are build for you to lose on the long run. But sports betting on the other hand you have allot better chance at winning since games can vary from day to day.

Here's my POV:
1 game a day, evens out around 55% on the long run with 100 games at -110: lose: 45 units, win: 55 units, total: +5 units
3 games a day, evens out around 55% on the long run with 300 games at -110: lose: 135 units, win:165 units, total: +15 units
(am i right?)
so on the long run playing 3 games a day does has its pros and cons..

Its about what you're willing to risk for a profit. Small risk = small profit(1 game) Bigger risk = bigger profit(3 games). Welcome to the world of gambling baby


But hey, thats my opinion/ strategy when it comes to betting. If you're doing 11-2 with 1 a day games I'd say stick with what works and don't change a thing!!

[sweethook]

most money you can make, or for me in baseball will come from streak betting IMO. gl.

[Sawyer]

When you pick your spots and wait for the right opportunity, your winning rate will be higher. When you jump on every game, your winning rate will go down. Going 10-0 in 10 day (playing 1 pick/day) and going 10-0 in a 1 day is not the same thing. Second one is more harder..

By the way,

Originally Posted by swagger

Here's my POV:
1 game a day, evens out around 55% on the long run with 100 games at -110: lose: 45 units, win: 55 units, total: +5 units
3 games a day, evens out around 55% on the long run with 300 games at -110: lose: 135 units, win:165 units, total: +15 units
(am i right?)

In 3 games/day, you risk more since you're playing 3 games. So bet 3 units on 1 game/day and profits will be same.

1 game a day 300$ = +15 Units
3 game a day 100$ = +15 Units

As you can see, there isn't any difference.

[jorge1]

I'm on the iPhone so won't type much but yeah the idea is playing three units on one game. I cannot say I wouldn't play two games daily because like yesterday I played three. Buy right away u start noticing te difference. The first game I capped yesterday spent almost four hous capping and cashed EASILY. The other two I added I didn't have so long to cap and strugled with both and went 1-1. I am gonna do some research and type something up on the percent error increasing with higher number of games. Swagger and swayed thanks for your inputs btw!

[floridagolfer]

First, you need to know how accurate your 70 percent figure is. Just because you love a game when you handicap it doesn't mean your thoughts translate to a good winning percentage. For all you know, those three games you give a 70 percent figure to might actually win (probably do) at a percentage that's far lower than your estimate.

[swagger]

Oh I see what you did there, 3 units on one game as opposed to 3 unit on 3 games. Ok that makes a bit more sense now and you're right Sawyer about it being even that way

Discipline should be spot on as you said Jorge, keep it up. I might try it some day

[jorge1]

Originally Posted by floridagolfer

First, you need to know how accurate your 70 percent figure is. Just because you love a game when you handicap it doesn't mean your thoughts translate to a good winning percentage. For all you know, those three games you give a 70 percent figure to might actually win (probably do) at a percentage that's far lower than your estimate.

Right...totally true...just an example saying 70%..thats why i said i GAUGE MORE OR LESS>..but totally valid, what you said.

[Pauulzcappin]

hey bud, thanks for paying up the points

[jorge1]

Originally Posted by swagger

Oh I see what you did there, 3 units on one game as opposed to 3 unit on 3 games. Ok that makes a bit more sense now and you're right Sawyer about it being even that way

Discipline should be spot on as you said Jorge, keep it up. I might try it some day

Yeah bro..thanks! Its about discipline... If you think about it, anyone who watches bases and is constantly on it, and constantly studying it and constantly discussing it, and perhaps even played the game should have enough sense to be able to pick ONE winner a day on a consistent basis. Forget picking 3 or 4, forget game prices, just ask my old man, ONE GAME he is sure of tonight, and he could EASILY spit you out a game that will hit more often than not...you know what i mean..

now for all the number wizzes out there, of course price, and lines and all that have a heavy weight on your wagering, but that is when your money mangement kicks in..but the name of the game is finding the value of just picking a game or two a day..there are DEFINITE advantages there...granted, if you have an edge on 7 games tonight, should you play 100 on each of the 7 games? or should you play 700 on your best play, or perhaps 350 on your best 2? WHat do you find more value on?

Plus, alot of ppl can talk about strategy! strategy strategy strategy! about numbers, math, etc. but lets ask ourselves something, you might have an edge on 7 games tonight...but are you a Machine to figure and determine that many games efficiently all in ONE DAY? i mean, Its the reality..ive been spending 6-8 hours for this second half of the season on bases EVERY DAY and trust me, ive never had a better time than these last two weeks when i just study the board for an hour, then pick a few games, compare them for another hour and boil them down to one or two...study that game or two for another hour or two and study my BR and where i wanna go with the play (wager amounts, etc)...

So i spend about 3-4 hours, ALOT more profitable winning what? 12-3 or 11-3 now? versus picking 4 or 5 games a night...

in fact, I ask anyone, Pick 4 games a day for 4 days and see if you can get more than 10 wins in there...its not a personal challenge or talkin trash, but i think more often than not itll be harder to accomplish than just keepin it light and weeding out all the extra plays and simply playing the STRONGEST plays bigger...

[jorge1]

Of course man!!! thanks for the action...yeah, i always pay up, i wouldnt stiff anyone for pts...lol

[TodaysAction]

Play as many or as few games that you have an advantage in and keep to your money plan.

[jorge1]

Ive been looking for a system that enables for winning streaks and disables losing streaks from killing BR...

SOmething in the line of everytime you win you bet 1.5 times your bet next bet...if you lose you bet .5 times what you bet last time..

kinda like this:

100
150
225
337.50

If losing begins then you go:
-506.25
-253.125
-126.56

Once i get a WIN, then i reset to 100 again and start the upward climb again...anyone have any thoughts? A 4-3 record like this would result in -73.435...maybe not..

perhaps trying this: climb up multiplying each win by 1.5, then 1.4, then 1.3 then 1.2, then 1.1...and stay at 1.1 until getting a loss...once you get a loss, then you reset to 100 right away. or a certain base percentage of your BR:

+100
+150
+210
+273
-327.60
-100
-100

result: +205.40!!!

Or maybe: 2.0, 1.8, 1.5, 1.1

100
200
360
540
-594
-100
-100


Total: +406

I dunno...ideas guys?

I mention streaks because I usually wager and win or lose in STREAKS...so its my own personal pattern..

[bluejayseh]

I think it depends on the day, but I do see both sides of the coin here. Good posts everyone, was a nice read for a Thursday afternoon.

If there is only one game that day that pops out at you, then only play one.

If there are 3 games that pop out at you, instead of trying to figure out how many units to place on each game, why not just parlay them and stick to your unit bet? If you hit, you're up a nice bit... if you miss, you're only down your 1 unit that was allotted for the day anyways.

Thoughts?

[ScreaminPain]

Originally Posted by jorge1

Its quite simple: If i feel about 70% sure about winning each game, doesnt it make sense to play one game daily rather than 2, 3 or even more?

The problem here is simply. It's impossible to find "several" daily games with a 70% probability of winning, that also has a line low enough to bet into. Linesmakers aren't that stupid.

If I remember correctly, if one has a 70% probability, the line in baseball would dictate a -233 line. If one could find a 70% probability and a line of somewhere near 150-175, then it would be betable. However, that doesn't occur often and cerainly not several times a day.

Good Luck on your action...