[MadCapper]

I always give this warning to bettors during late August and September: "BEWARE OF THE HUGE FAVORITES AGAINST TEAMS THAT HAVE YOUNG GUYS PLAYING FOR THEIR LIVELYHOOD!" And year in and year out bettors don't listen and end up losing too much on the -300 favorite. Teams that are out of it and have their young prospects up are DANGEROUS! These kids seem to be a bit quicker than the veterans. They are playing with a chip on their shoulder. They are showcasing themselves for the next season. Furthermore, the huge favorites often "look past" these inferior teams. The veterans on the huge favorite teams do not even know who 90% of the underdog roster is. They probably go to sleep late, wake up late, and say all we have to do is get on the field and we will win. But, more often than not, that is not the case. As we saw last night with the big bad -300 Cardinals, with their ace - Wainwright- on the mound, against the inferior Pirates. The gashouse gang were only able to must 3 runs. They scored 2 in the first and then seemed to turn off the switch. And players like Tabata, Walker, and McCutchen beat Wainwright. Also, the big bad hitting Phillies only got up for the game enough to score 2 runs against the putrid Astros...IN PHILLY!

For today, luckilly, there is only 1 huge favorite on the board: Phillies (Halladay) -330 vs Happ and the Astros. Square logic tells us that its a sure thing, a lock, that Halladay will handle, if not shut-out the lowly, weak hitting Astros. The Phillies are pissed about last night. Theres no way they can lose again, Right? Wrong! Its never that easy. The Phillies bats have been dormant, to say the least. It seems as if Utley and Howard have both come back too soon from their injuries. The rest of the lineup seems to have flamed out as well. Werth, Victorino, Polanco, Rollins (besides his huge homerun last night) are not hitting consistently enough. The Astros are playing with nothing to lose. This is their World Series.....facing Doc Halladay and the mighty Phillies. This is J.A. Happ's Hall of Fame game. He will be up for this one...playing against his former team.

By no means am I telling you that Houston will win. But what I am telling you is not to tie up your money on a -330 favorite in this situation. As I tell fellow bettors: "Even the best teams in baseball lose 60+ games" and "even the best pitchers in baseball barely win 50% of the games they start".


I wish you luck with whatever you decide to do. Hopefully you learned something today

[hugh4310]

330 is to much chalk anyways!

[MadCapper]

Originally Posted by hugh4310

330 is to much chalk anyways!

I agree.

But people will use this as the anchor to all their parlays.

Just like many did with Hamels and Carpenter today.

[phillybadboy]

all in

[phillybadboy]

just kidding

[SouthBayGame]

Hamels (this year) is not a pitcher to rely on a win with

[MadCapper]

Originally Posted by SouthBayGame

Hamels (this year) is not a pitcher to rely on a win with

Hamels has been tremendous of late.

His team hasnt hit at all for him.

[korbal29]

I agree with your analysis should be cautious

[ZBOIZ]

I think Houston is good value

[MadRussian]

youguy are right about that

[MadCapper]

Originally Posted by korbal29

I agree with your analysis should be cautious

[MadCapper]

Originally Posted by ZBOIZ

I think Houston is good value

[dynamite140]

If Phillies win, it will be something like 3-1.

[MadCapper]

Originally Posted by MadRussian

youguy are right about that

[pleasegod]

theres no chalk when you win

[Wade Dwayne]

Houston are playing decent as of now. No real reason to fade them especially at that price.

[head_strong]

expensive, but he gets the win...

[MadCapper]

Originally Posted by dynamite140

If Phillies win, it will be something like 3-1.

Maybe. And is that the type of play you wanna tie up your money on, whether it be straight up @ -330 or an anchor to your parlays?

[BigDaddy]

he was like -400 last time out and only won the game 1-0

so its good advice **

[BookieOweMe]

strong juice

[MadCapper]

Originally Posted by pleasegod

theres no chalk when you win

Profound. Many said that tonight with Philly and Stl.

Halladay doesnt win every start he makes. The Phillies havent been hitting. The Astros are playing young and loose.

[MadCapper]

Originally Posted by Wade Dwayne

Houston are playing decent as of now. No real reason to fade them especially at that price.

If anything you fade their opponents now.

One team tight.
One team loose.

One team -330
One team +300

[MadCapper]

Originally Posted by head_strong

expensive, but he gets the win...

If anyone can, its him.

Its never that easy.

[marvinsgotwood]

thanks brother !!

[MadCapper]

Originally Posted by BigDaddy

he was like -400 last time out and only won the game 1-0

so its good advice **

Phillies are just not hitting now. Who knows what type of effect last nigts game will have on both teams?!

[MadCapper]

Originally Posted by marvinsgotwood

thanks brother !!

Just trying to help.

[drfunkmaster]

phiillies lose

[phillybadboy]

phils stros i'm liking under tomorrow 7.5

[LiarGame]

Like Houston tomorrow too. Thanks for the heads up

[Power Play]

-330 is way too much to lay on a team with a comatose offense of late. The ML means Phillies have over 76 percent of the matc/hups just to BREAK EVEN! Halladay is in excellent form but still has at least a 10 percent chance of serving up a stinker (even hall of famers do). Phillies have at least a 50 percent chance of scoring minimal runs in their current form; leaving the game up to two tired bullpens (50/50 proposition). Happ is no picnic either; he's a solid pitcher who has a chance to dominate. Other things (a Halladay injury/Carlos Lee running into a pitch with runners on) are all possible. And the longer the game remains tied the more the +ML looks good. Sure the Phillies are motivated, but motivation doesn't help their hitters suddenly start producing immediately. Astros are confident now and I think the line should be more like -220 given current form. Astros or nothing!

[BoS_010]

I'm a Phillies fan (avatar) and I never would lay that kind of juice on them, especially with the way they have been playing as of late. With Halladay on the mound and the Phils not scoring runs and coming off a 16-inning game, I'd consider taking the Astros +1.5 plus money or even at +2.5 and lay probably something around -130. If they keep this up they might be having a long road trip ahead of them...

[handicapper03]

4-3 lets get it!!

[BoS_010]

And obviously Houston is coming off the same 16-inning game but they it's a little different for them- they have nothing to play for. They're out there playing with no pressure, just playing spoiler.

[phillybadboy]

Originally Posted by Power Play

-330 is way too much to lay on a team with a comatose offense of late. The ML means Phillies have over 76 percent of the matc/hups just to BREAK EVEN! Halladay is in excellent form but still has at least a 10 percent chance of serving up a stinker (even hall of famers do). Phillies have at least a 50 percent chance of scoring minimal runs in their current form; leaving the game up to two tired bullpens (50/50 proposition). Happ is no picnic either; he's a solid pitcher who has a chance to dominate. Other things (a Halladay injury/Carlos Lee running into a pitch with runners on) are all possible. And the longer the game remains tied the more the +ML looks good. Sure the Phillies are motivated, but motivation doesn't help their hitters suddenly start producing immediately. Astros are confident now and I think the line should be more like -220 given current form. Astros or nothing!

nice read, why didn't post this 5 hours ago?

[sweethook]

books thinking like you ,cas should be -550