[reverend]

Season to be inside this thread

Reverend's Betting Strategies and Bankroll Management

Intro
I will be playing 2 different systems this season and each system also has a slight variation to it, giving us 4 systems that will come into play. I have done countless hours of backtesting over the fall and winter and feel very confident about what will be played inside this thread. Both systems use a chase style of betting, and this is not for everybody. The chase betting progression will have you risking a large number of units on C and D bets to win a much smaller amount. With that on the table, both of these systems have a high percentage of winners in the A and B bets, so hopefully we will not be stretched out to many times this season.

I have never been a big poster on forums, but I thought I would give it a go this season to offer some insight, share my research and ideas, and gain some accountability from the guys who will follow along and contribute in this thread. I hope we can build a solid following in here and bounce ideas and thoughts off of each other throughout the season.

I have never been a big "systems" type bettor. I do not like being bound by hard and fast rules at all times. I like to have the option to lay off of and pick up certain bets without feeling bad about it. I am a huge baseball fan and feel as if I know the game very well, so I like the option to have some wiggle room. With that being said, a few close friends pointed out a few interesting MLB trends and that is when I began looking into these 2 systems. So, I will do my best to outline these systems, but just know that I always have the option to pass up a series or game.

Many are already up-to-date on the 2 systems that will be played, so if I do not cover every aspect of it, or you have questions, please ask. I am not an "ego" guy, and I love the dialogue over this stuff, so ask away as questions arise. I only ask that we try and keep this thread free from negative detractors. I know they will surface, but if you disagree with something in here, just be civil and kind. We are each risking our own money and at the end of the day, we only have to answer to ourselves about the decisions we make.


THE SERIES SYSTEM

The Series System is going to be our bread and butter inside this thread. The basic idea of this system is that we are betting that certain teams will NOT get swept at home as well as betting that certain teams will NOT sweep on the road. This system looks at 3 and 4 game series only (no 2 game series) and ends on the last day of August (no September series).

-What makes this system unique is that you have to identify these teams on the fly during the season. That is what this thread is for, we want quality discussion on teams and match-ups. I have gone back over the past 4 years for each team and tried to do this, but knowing that teams change from year to year, we will be making these decisions on a week by week basis.

-Another key component is the issue of pitching match-ups. This is vital to my capping, so if a top tier team is playing a 3 game home series in which we would usually be backing them, but they are throwing their 3-5 pitchers, then we might be laying off of that series. It just depends. That is exactly why I want wiggle room in these plays from week to week.

-Our goal in this system is to not lose a series the entire year. I will be using a progressive money management method on this system. But again, I am not going to be locked in to it exactly. I will always post my picks in BOLD and list how many units I am trying to win on each play. But the general progression will be after every 20 games won, I will increase my "units to be won" by 50%. After looking at the entire season, there are over 200 series that could fall into this system. In trying to be conservative, I am shooting for 100 wins, but could easily see 150 wins. I will list the betting progression below (beginning at $100/Unit):

Games 1-20
Betting to win $100 per series
After 20 wins: +$2,000
Games 21-40
Betting to win $150 per series
After 20 wins: +$3,000
Games 41-60
Betting to win $225 per series
After 20 wins: +$4,500
Games 61-80
Betting to win $325 per series
After 20 wins: +$6,500
Games 81-100
Betting to win $500 per series
After 20 wins: +$10,000
Games 101-120
Betting to win $700 per series
After 20 wins: +$14,000
Games 121-140
Betting to win $1000 per series
After 20 wins: +$20,000
Games 141-150
Betting to win $1500 per series
After 10 wins: +$15,000

After 150 Wins: Profit of $75,000

As you can see, the potential is there. If you are not a $100 bettor, just simply divide the numbers by how much you are playing for. What I found to be true over the last 4 seasons, was that June-August are the really great months for this system. I imagine it is because the top tier teams are really playing well by then, and the lowest tier teams have realized that they have no hope and are just trying to get through the summer. So this lines up perfectly with our progression, as we will be betting more per unit through the summer months.


THE SITUATIONAL SYSTEM

The Situational System is played in the exact same fashion as the Series System above, but here we will not be betting on distinct 3 or 4 games series always, but we will be looking for favorable 3-4 game stretches where I believe a team will get at least 1 win. This comes in 2 different variations:

1) You have a top tier team playing on the road and you believe they will get at least 1 win during the series. This was the case with 1 of my first plays where Philly opened the season on the road at Washington. As well as Boston playing their 2nd series as KC.

2) You have a stretch of games that you like and want to play it as a situational chase. This is a little more subjective, and because of that, I will always try to list out my reasons and thinking behind these picks. Many times these plays will revolve around a team that has 6 straight home or road games. For instance, I had a play on Arizona in their first game of the season against SD (very bad team). I won that play, but Arizona still had 2 more games against SD and then PIT came to town for 3 games. So, I had Arizona playing 2 of the worst teams in the league. I could have waited for the PIT series for another "Series System" play, but I decided to play them in game 2 vs. SD and was prepared to chase into the PIT series if necessary. I ended up winning game 3 of the SD series and then played Arizona in a normal "Series System" play against PIT which we won on the B bet. So instead of winning 2 units in Arizona's first 2 series, we won 3 units. These will not be as common, but they will pop up throughout the season.

I will be combing these 2 systems in terms of the progressive money management system. So, once I have 20 wins combined between these 2, I will be increasing my unit size. But I will try and keep the records for each separate.


THE FAV SYSTEM

The FAV System is a system that I will be playing on the side for less units, at least in the beginning of the season. It is based on playing the largest favorite of the day (based on the opening number) on the -1RL and chasing for 4 games. So you will have 1 bet per day using this system.

-In 2009, this system went 86-1 (+57 Units)
-In 2008, this system went 88-1 (+55 Units)
-In 2007, this system went 80-2 (+18 Units)

As you can see, this system is profitable. I am still trying to decide what type of money management program I am going to use with it, but for now, I will be flat betting this system.

-In my backtesting, I decided to see what how a system based on the 2nd highest favorite of the day would play out, and I found it was very similar to the results above. So, I may be playing this as a 2nd system on its own to try and double the Units won over the course of the season.


So that is what I will be playing in this thread. I know this is not completely comprehensive, but it gives you a foundation for what we will be playing in this thread this season. Feel free to ask questions. Also, feel free to post your thoughts and ideas as we go through the season.

Thanks,
REV

[reverend]

4/4:

Boston ML (-116)

[bygspenda]

Good luck this season Reverend

[stingyrivers]

good luck rev lets clean up this year.... thanks for all the help with the systems

[reverend]

Originally Posted by reverend

4/4:

Boston ML (-116)

This was a quick post to get it on the boards before the first pitch. I will be playing a "chase system" on home/away teams and will also be playing another system based on the favorite ML of the day. I will also have random picks as well, but mostly will be based on these system plays.

This Boston play is part of the Home Stand series. I will lay out more details later.

Thanks for all the input in the offseason! Lets have a great 2010 MLB season!

[reverend]

Originally Posted by reverend

4/4:

Boston ML (-116)

Home/Away Chase System: 1-0 (+1 Unit)

[IWinMyBets]

Hey Rev,
You gonna have your plays posted here on this thread? Darn, I leave for work in about half hour. Gonna be tough for those who still do the 8-5 schedule. Great beginning!

[reverend]

Originally Posted by IWinMyBets

Hey Rev,
You gonna have your plays posted here on this thread? Darn, I leave for work in about half hour. Gonna be tough for those who still do the 8-5 schedule. Great beginning!

I will try my best to get them up early. Sorry about today though.

[reverend]

April 5th:

(A) Bet: Philadelphia Phillies 2 Units to win 1 Unit

(A) Bet: Chicago White Sox 1.5 Units to win 1 Unit

(A) Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks 1.86 Units to win 1 Unit

(A) Bet: St. Louis Cardinals .7 Units to win .5 Units


Current Record: 1 - 0 (+1 Unit)

[reverend]

I will not officially begin the "Favorite System" for at least a week or so.

[ngates815]

What's the teams you have selected for the "home series chase system" I also plan on following that system, and was hoping that somebody would post the plays from it.

Boston, Yankees, St Louis, La Dodgers, White Sox?

Do you have a link to the other systems you're playing? Is one "Bad" away teams visiting above .500 home teams or something of that nature?

[reverend]

Originally Posted by reverend

April 5th:

(A) Bet: Philadelphia Phillies 2 Units to win 1 Unit

(A) Bet: Chicago White Sox 1.5 Units to win 1 Unit

(A) Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks 1.86 Units to win 1 Unit

(A) Bet: St. Louis Cardinals .7 Units to win .5 Units


Current Record: 1 - 0 (+1 Unit)

After my 3 early games all won, I am adding another unit to my Arizona game.

(A) Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks 3.72 Units to win 2 Units

[reverend]

Originally Posted by reverend

After my 3 early games all won, I am adding another unit to my Arizona game.

(A) Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks 3.72 Units to win 2 Units

April 5:

4-0 (+4.5 Units)


Overall Record: 5-0 (+5.5 Units)

[reverend]

For Tuesday (April 6):

I will be on Tampa Bay for 1 Unit

Leaning towards Arizona for .5 Units

[IWinMyBets]

Great beginning Rev.
I missed the Boston game on Sunday.
I did the best I could before leaving for work this morning and had Texas Rangers ML, Chicago White Sox, Az D'backs, for the Home/Away Sweep plays....tested Philly on the Fav. System with a small Unit. Will go full steam on the favorite system next week.

4-0 start for me.

I'm playing the Angels this evening.

I would love to tail you closer, as I can smell a winner from miles away.

I do have a question why you are going with Az. D'backs again tomorrow after they have already clinched this series?

Thanks Again and Good Luck to All

[reverend]

Originally Posted by IWinMyBets

Great beginning Rev.
I missed the Boston game on Sunday.
I did the best I could before leaving for work this morning and had Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox, Az D'backs, for the Home/Away Sweep plays....tested Philly on the Fav. System with a small Unit. Will go full steam on the favorite system next week.

4-0 start for me.

I'm playing the Angels this evening.

I would love to tail you closer, as I can smell a winner from miles away.

I do have a question why you are going with Az. D'backs again tomorrow after they have already clinched this series?

Thanks Again and Good Luck to All

I am right with you! This is going to be a special season. I can feel it.

Nice call on the Rangers. I really wanted to pull that trigger but held off. Same goes with the Angels.

About tomorrow,

Tampa is in the HomeSweep System.

Arizona is a small play for me for 2 reasons. I like the pitching matchup, and if we were officially playing the "Fav System", it would be the play for tomorrow. So I will be counting it as just a regular handicapped play, not part of any system though.

[reverend]

Probably tomorrow, I will post a more detailed approach for the upcoming season. I will probably go back to my first post in this thread and post it there.

So if any are wondering what systems I play or how I come up with my picks, I will do my best to explain it there.

I will also be keeping more detailed records than what i have done above, so that way, if you want to follow/fade 1 particular approach i take, then it will be easy to see the picks and records for each system.

[IWinMyBets]

Originally Posted by reverend

Probably tomorrow, I will post a more detailed approach for the upcoming season. I will probably go back to my first post in this thread and post it there.

So if any are wondering what systems I play or how I come up with my picks, I will do my best to explain it there.

I will also be keeping more detailed records than what i have done above, so that way, if you want to follow/fade 1 particular approach i take, then it will be easy to see the picks and records for each system.

Great! Thanks for the Reply
I go along with you on AZ with a small play....however, they did win today, So are you saying they will be the morning line ML top FAV for tomorrows games? I do like the play anyway...

Good Luck

[reverend]

Originally Posted by IWinMyBets

Great! Thanks for the Reply
I go along with you on AZ with a small play....however, they did win today, So are you saying they will be the morning line ML top FAV for tomorrows games? I do like the play anyway...

Good Luck

exactly. they already opened up as the largest favorite for tomorrow at -175. but i will note that the line has already dropped to around -160. and the tampa bay line opened at -160 and has already climbed to -175.

this is the reason i will rarely bet games the night before. although i am still leaning to arizona, i may decide to lay off the game. but assuming the "fav system" was in effect right now, Arizona would be the play for tomorrow under that system.

the only "for sure" bet for tomorrow is on tampa bay right now.

[reverend]

nice opening day

[reverend]

April 6:

(A) Bet: Tampa Bay (-1 RL) 1.7 Units to win 1 Unit

(A) Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1 RL) 1 Unit to win 1 Unit

(A) Bet: Boston Red Sox (ML) .7 Units to win .5 Units

[reverend]

I am playing Tampa as an original system play, and will chase them through the series against Baltimore.

Arizona and Boston are both "non-system" plays, but I am playing them in a similar fashion. Arizona has 2 more against SD and then PIT comes to town. Boston has 2 more against the Yanks and then they travel to KC. So I will be playing Arizona and Boston in a 4 game chase if tonights games lose.

[jolmscheid]

Sounds good REV...I really like how you post your plays along with what system they belong to...PLEASE do this all season and put them in bold as I will be tailing you bud...

[reverend]

Originally Posted by jolmscheid

Sounds good REV...I really like how you post your plays along with what system they belong to...PLEASE do this all season and put them in bold as I will be tailing you bud...

All my plays will be in this thread for the season.

I plan to go back and write out my methodology as well, and my money management system. I will probably get to that tomorrow.

Lets have a great season!

[fjordo]

Originally Posted by reverend

April 6:

(A) Bet: Tampa Bay (-1 RL) 1.7 Units to win 1 Unit

(A) Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1 RL) 1 Unit to win 1 Unit

(A) Bet: Boston Red Sox (ML) .7 Units to win .5 Units

I like the plays on Arizona and Boston. Personally, I am going to make a play on the Brewers as well, to not get swept in their current series now that they've lost the first.

[theMARTY]

Reverend,
Which book do you use for the -1 RL?

[reverend]

I use a calculator that someone built on excel. You basically bet a portion on the ML and then a portion on the -1.5 RL, to give you a -1 RL.

[theMARTY]

Thank you.

[Metalhead]

GL Rev, you're off to a great start

[JW Cash]

Originally Posted by reverend

I use a calculator that someone built on excel. You basically bet a portion on the ML and then a portion on the -1.5 RL, to give you a -1 RL.

Reverend,,,where can we get a copy of the calculator you use for the -1 RL...


Thanks...

[spankadank]

what books do you guys use?

[IWinMyBets]

Let's see if this works. Here is the -1RL calculator.

[IWinMyBets]

Well, Tampa Bay pulled it out in the bottom of the 9th. The big question would be, did we play it on the money line or the run line or both? I played it on the ML. Another question would be, do you think the LAD would be a good play vs. Pittsburg after the game one loss?

[reverend]

Originally Posted by reverend

April 6:

(A) Bet: Tampa Bay (-1 RL) 1.7 Units to win 1 Unit

(A) Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1 RL) 1 Unit to win 1 Unit

(A) Bet: Boston Red Sox (ML) .7 Units to win .5 Units

April 5: 0-2-1

"B" bets to follow

[reverend]

Tampa Bay pushed on the -1 RL, and I have decided to lay off of the rest of the series. I will take a push for that series. It is early, and I really dont want to have a C bet against Baltimore's #3 starter, who is a young stud!

I will be chasing both Boston and Arizona tomorrow with B bets.