Some plays for Saturday
Banner day yesterday. Hope it's more of the same here.
Pirates/Braves Under 9 -125 (Gorzo/James)
I really like both these young pitchers. Gorzo has been a model of consistency this year, and he's very good on the road. He’s 5-2 with a 3.10 ERA, and lefties haven’t been hitting him at all. That certainly helps with B-Mac's current form, Thorman, Johnson, and keeping Harris out of the lineup. In fact, the Braves have done nothing against lefties this year
James doesn't have great overall numbers this year, but he has been good lately. He keeps the Braves in every game, and the best start of his career came against these Pirates, when he gave up only one hit in 7 shutout innings. The Braves bullpen is turning into one of the best in baseball now that Moylan, Paronto, and Yates are joining Soriano and Wickman as reliable arms.
Blue Jays +200 and Under 9.5 +100 (McGowan/Matsuzaka)
We'll start with Matsuzaka, who had six exceptional starts in a row before going to Detroit and taking the loss, giving up 10 hits, 3 HR and 6 ER in five innings. But that was against the best offense in baseball, and I’m giving him a mulligan for that. I expect him to be good, but not great, in this one.
The Red Sox have really struggled in home night games against RHSP (7-11, 3.9 rpg, -11.50 units), and they really are facing a good one here. Dustin McGowan is a future star, and since his first three starts he has been very strong. Seven of his last nine starts were quality starts, and when he‘s on, he‘s borderline untouchable. He's been very strong on the road his last five starts. For the Jays to be receiving this price is insane with the Blue Jays having a very similar lineup, bullpen, and starter.
Twins -107 (Silva/Blanton)
How many pitchers in MLB have a road ERA that's over double their home ERA? I can think of exactly one, and it's Joe Blanton. At home - 2.19 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, .202 BAA. On the road - 4.48 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, .275 BAA. In addition, he has been awful indoors throughout his career (6.84/1.51/.312) and at the Metrodome (6.38/1.58/.301). He has a disgusting team behind him really. I'm starting to think Billy Beane has run this team into the ground - they lead the league in ERA and have a losing record. How is that possible? I mean, aside from Jack Cust being their cleanup hitter and Ken Macha managing the team ...
The righty-righty matchup strongly favors the Twins, as does the bullpen, and both Silva's home numbers (3.71/1.29/.270) and career numbers against Oakland (3.00/1.04/.253) suggest that he won't be hit too hard in this one. If it's close late, the Twins become a big favorite. The short number isn't a bother for me.
Mariners +112 (Batista/Rogers)
If the first two games of this series have showed us anything, it's that these teams both like hitting lefties better than righties. So, it only reasons that I would take the righty here against the lefty, especially as a home pup. I don't expect a whole lot out of Rogers in the second half, I think he's overvalued because of a good playoffs last year and what I consider a fraudulent start to this season. He's not a great pitcher, and only a great pitcher should be favored at Safeco. The Mariners are a very good home team (28-16), and they have been brilliant against LH starters (16-7, +11.65 units). They are 8-2 at home against lefties.
Both pitchers have put up very average numbers against the opposition, but the Mariners have a tremendous bullpen advantage and only a slight lineup disadvantage. They're only dogs because the public perception of the Tigers is at an all-time high.
All medium plays except the Jays, which I played for 3/4 the amount of the others.
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Originally Posted by rjt721
