[Razz]

Banner day yesterday. Hope it's more of the same here.

Pirates/Braves Under 9 -125 (Gorzo/James)
I really like both these young pitchers. Gorzo has been a model of consistency this year, and he's very good on the road. He’s 5-2 with a 3.10 ERA, and lefties haven’t been hitting him at all. That certainly helps with B-Mac's current form, Thorman, Johnson, and keeping Harris out of the lineup. In fact, the Braves have done nothing against lefties this year
James doesn't have great overall numbers this year, but he has been good lately. He keeps the Braves in every game, and the best start of his career came against these Pirates, when he gave up only one hit in 7 shutout innings. The Braves bullpen is turning into one of the best in baseball now that Moylan, Paronto, and Yates are joining Soriano and Wickman as reliable arms.

Blue Jays +200 and Under 9.5 +100 (McGowan/Matsuzaka)
We'll start with Matsuzaka, who had six exceptional starts in a row before going to Detroit and taking the loss, giving up 10 hits, 3 HR and 6 ER in five innings. But that was against the best offense in baseball, and I’m giving him a mulligan for that. I expect him to be good, but not great, in this one.
The Red Sox have really struggled in home night games against RHSP (7-11, 3.9 rpg, -11.50 units), and they really are facing a good one here. Dustin McGowan is a future star, and since his first three starts he has been very strong. Seven of his last nine starts were quality starts, and when he‘s on, he‘s borderline untouchable. He's been very strong on the road his last five starts. For the Jays to be receiving this price is insane with the Blue Jays having a very similar lineup, bullpen, and starter.

Twins -107 (Silva/Blanton)
How many pitchers in MLB have a road ERA that's over double their home ERA? I can think of exactly one, and it's Joe Blanton. At home - 2.19 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, .202 BAA. On the road - 4.48 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, .275 BAA. In addition, he has been awful indoors throughout his career (6.84/1.51/.312) and at the Metrodome (6.38/1.58/.301). He has a disgusting team behind him really. I'm starting to think Billy Beane has run this team into the ground - they lead the league in ERA and have a losing record. How is that possible? I mean, aside from Jack Cust being their cleanup hitter and Ken Macha managing the team ...
The righty-righty matchup strongly favors the Twins, as does the bullpen, and both Silva's home numbers (3.71/1.29/.270) and career numbers against Oakland (3.00/1.04/.253) suggest that he won't be hit too hard in this one. If it's close late, the Twins become a big favorite. The short number isn't a bother for me.

Mariners +112 (Batista/Rogers)
If the first two games of this series have showed us anything, it's that these teams both like hitting lefties better than righties. So, it only reasons that I would take the righty here against the lefty, especially as a home pup. I don't expect a whole lot out of Rogers in the second half, I think he's overvalued because of a good playoffs last year and what I consider a fraudulent start to this season. He's not a great pitcher, and only a great pitcher should be favored at Safeco. The Mariners are a very good home team (28-16), and they have been brilliant against LH starters (16-7, +11.65 units). They are 8-2 at home against lefties.
Both pitchers have put up very average numbers against the opposition, but the Mariners have a tremendous bullpen advantage and only a slight lineup disadvantage. They're only dogs because the public perception of the Tigers is at an all-time high.

All medium plays except the Jays, which I played for 3/4 the amount of the others.

[moses millsap]

I think you may see a better price on Seattle closer to game time tomorrow.

[Razz]

I don't know, I haven't gotten a bad line in two weeks ... but you're pretty good predicting those things too, so that could be. I'll say this, if it's something like 70% on Detroit and the line gets above +120, I'll hit it again.

[moses millsap]

I just think it's more likely we'll see a +115 than a +105 sometime tomorrow. It may drop early and rise back up later or vice versa, but I can't see +112 being the ceiling for this line.

[rjt721]

Amazing....I have the exact same card tomorrow. I'm also considering the Rangers. Good luck Razz.

[Razz]

Originally Posted by rjt721

Amazing....I have the exact same card tomorrow. I'm also considering the Rangers. Good luck Razz.

That's pretty remarkable. There were three other games where I deduced slight value, and the Rangers were one of them (along with STL and Pittsburgh). Good luck if you play them.

[onlooker]

I only like two teams tomorrow, and will only bet them if I can get plus money on them.

They are the Athletics and White Sox. If I can't get plus money, then I will just take the day off.

Good luck Razz.

[AC1318]

Originally Posted by onlòóker

I only like two teams tomorrow, and will only bet them if I can get plus money on them.

They are the Athletics and White Sox. If I can't get plus money, then I will just take the day off.

Good luck Razz.

I Like oakland as well will be playing them with LAD

[Razz]

Just a little dicking around play because I think Lilly is in for a bad second half, and with him being a flyball pitcher and a strong wind blowing out, I think the Stros could put up a lot of runs here.

Astros Team Total Over 5 (-105)

[bigboydan]

Originally Posted by Razz

That's pretty remarkable. There were three other games where I deduced slight value, and the Rangers were one of them (along with STL and Pittsburgh). Good luck if you play them.

Razz, Just an FYI: According to Eckstein he will be in the lineup today. I don't know if this info will add value or your decision at all, but I'm just passing along what I heard yesterday straight from Eckstein himself.

[Razz]

Thanks Dan. Based on that, and the outrageous line movement, I made a very small (repeat: very small) wager on the Cards +192.

[GoBlue]

He is going to get shelled - St Lois better be able to score ALOT of runs today.... Take the over here...

[onlooker]

Cardinals need some pitching badly. When is Carpenter come off the DL? A couple weeks?

[EBone]

Looker, local media is reporting that he had a setback yesterday after a 3 IP outing at one of the minor league levels. It is looking more and more like Carpenter will not be joining the Cards this year.

If you had to pick just one thing the Cards need (and there are multiple needs), I gotta believe Priority #1 was to get Carpenter back and for him to be Cris Carpenter of the last 2 years. They are probably done now as far as any shot of winning the division is concerned.



E

[onlooker]

Thanks for the update Ebone.

[Terpman92]

Razz- Good luck today! Love the Under.

[The HG]

I like the Atl under a good amount, but I think the Boston under is risky. I like the over in that game actually more than the under. I think McGowan is going to get hit a bit here. I like to see strong under support to take an under on a single digit total at Fenway, and I really don't see that here.

[Checkerboard]

home just now, following your mariners play in the late one Razz, thanks and good luck . . .

[Razz]

Originally Posted by Checkerboard

home just now, following your mariners play in the late one Razz, thanks and good luck . . .

Glad that's the only one you got. Pretty ugly day for me. I deserved better in this Braves game - hoping for a push - but I guess I overestimated McG's ability to pitch in an environment like Fenway. Costly mistake, but one I'll learn from. Most of his success has been in low pressure situations, and I think that's when I'll try to back him in the future.