[shoebox]

Here's my season long MLB thread, feel free to tail, fade, or disreguard/disregard. Will be adding a few tid-bits here before the season starts.

GL!!

[shoebox]

heres the symbol for my plays

[Dexter]

Here's my season long MLB thread, feel free to tail, fade, or disreguard. Will be adding a few tid-bits here before the season starts.

GL!!

sweet spelling!

[shoebox]

guard gard you get the picture

[shoebox]

Odds to win the 2010 American League Pennant
New York Yankees +185
Boston Red Sox +285
Tampa Bay Rays +1015
Los Angeles Angels +1015
Seattle Mariners +1615
Detroit Tigers +2250
Minnesota Twins +1215
Chicago White Sox +1615
Texas Rangers +1415
Oakland Athletics +2050

[shoebox]

Odds to win the 2010 National League Pennant
St Louis Cardinals +345
Chicago Cubs +805
Philadelphia Phillies +285
New York Mets +845
Florida Marlins +1615
Atlanta Braves +1015
Los Angeles Dodgers +865
Colorado Rockies +1415
San Francisco Giants +1615
Arizona Diamondbacks +1415
Milwaukee Brewers +3050
Cincinnati Reds +2050

[shoebox]

UMPIRE RECORD MONEYAVG WALKS K'S RUNS
Adrian Johnson24-11 $921 7.5 13.1 9.7
Alfonso Marquez1-1- $85 7.5 14.5 10.0
Andy Fletcher19-15 -$80 7.3 14.4 8.3
Angel Campos16-11 $110 6.0 14.3 8.9
Angel Hernandez21-14$570 6.9 13.2 9.3
Bill Hohn12-12- $400 6.3 13.0 8.7
Bill Miller17-19- $840 6.2 14.8 8.9
Bill Welke18-15- $180 6.3 14.0 10.7
Bob Davidson16-18-$705 6.3 13.4 9.9
Brian Gorman15-19-$900 6.0 13.8 8.4
Brian Knight19-16$45 7.0 13.6 10.0
Brian O'Nora18-17-$404 6.2 13.7 8.5
Brian Runge17-7$950 5.9 14.3 7.9
Bruce Dreckman14-13-$5606.5 12.0 9.8
C.B. Bucknor22-14$420 7.2 14.0 9.1
Casey Moser4-0$400 6.0 14.8 4.0
Chad Fairchild20-14$155 6.2 13.7 8.6
Charlie Reliford9-13-$625 5.2 13.8 7.8
Chris Tiller2-0$205 7.0 11.0 6.0
Chris Guccione17-17-$600 6.8 15.0 8.1
Chris Tiller1-0$100 11.0 10.0 7.0
Chuck Meriwether21-14$545 6.5 13.910.0
D.J. Reyburn6-3$2104.413.06.3
Dale Scott20-15$406.413.58.9
Damien Beal6-2$3656.512.08.4
Dan Bellino2-6-$7905.516.38.0
Dan Iassogna17-17-$3107.513.910.6
Dana DeMuth20-16-$557.313.59.9
Delfin Colon3-3-$1205.812.510.7
Derryl Cousins21-13$6407.413.78.8
Doug Eddings14-21-$1,3656.213.99.2
Ed Hickox2-1$6510.010.714.3
Ed Montague2-3-$1456.814.411.8
Ed Rapuano21-14$3557.213.58.9
Eric Cooper17-15-$2956.514.19.8
Fieldin Culbreth21-14$4607.213.08.7
Gary Cederstrom24-8$1,5106.314.38.7
Gary Darling16-12-$356.114.08.3
Gerry Davis19-17-$4356.812.89.5
Greg Gibson14-14-$4706.412.510.0
Hunter Wendelstedt16-19-$9096.913.39.1
James Hoye21-20-$6406.513.18.8
Jeff Kellogg17-17-$5957.413.57.6
Jeff Nelson19-16-$4607.313.110.4
Jerry Crawford18-7$9958.715.110.4
Jerry Layne20-14$1956.614.28.0
Jerry Meals16-19-$8466.414.19.8
Jim Joyce18-15-$1867.913.49.2
Jim Reynolds19-10$5356.815.19.7
Jim Wolf20-13$4157.113.59.9
Joe West22-14$1557.514.39.3
John Hirschbeck15-8$4456.514.08.2
Kerwin Danley3-7-$7806.913.09.6
Kevin Causey3-2$906.413.85.8
Lance Barksdale21-14$3707.413.09.5
Larry Vanover23-12$5206.114.28.5
Laz Diaz15-19-$8056.414.010.0
Mark Carlson22-12$6306.714.18.1
Mark Wegner21-15$4856.814.48.9
Marty Foster18-13$2357.314.28.8
Marvin Hudson20-15$207.314.98.4
Mike Dimuro16-18-$6956.914.28.9
Mike Estabrook8-15-$1,4506.313.68.6
Mike Everitt23-13$6257.314.79.8
Mike Muchlinski8-3$4759.115.713.3
Mike Reilly15-19-$9807.715.69.7
Mike Winters21-10$7906.113.08.9
Paul Emmel16-17-$3956.814.99.
Nauert13-21-$1,2506.314.79.6
Paul Schrieber16-17-$6457.813.99.6
Phil Cuzzi20-14$1756.414.28.7
Randy Marsh18-15$357.612.510.2
Rick Reed7-4$1606.914.89.1
Rob Drake21-17$2206.315.28.9
Ron Kulpa12-12-$6457.214.09.0
Sam Holbrook19-15$756.714.38.4
Scott Barry18-21-$8957.412.88.5
Ted Barrett24-11$9806.312.58.3
Tim McClelland18-19-$8308.513.411.1
Tim Timmons16-18-$6507.213.910.7
Tim Tschida16-17-$7708.213.411.3
Tim Welke14-14-$5457.514.111.3
Todd Tichenor12-23-$1,5557.214.18.3
Tom Hallion18-16-$2856.713.58.9
Tony Randazzo23-11$9155.413.49.1
Wally Bell25-13$9356.713.99.2

[darkenergy]

I learn a new word today SB .
BOL for this coming season Sir.

[lakerboy]

Good luck Shoe i will be keeping my eyes on this thread

[darkenergy]

This Sunday is a Vietnamese/Chinese New Year, give you 9 points to wish for you a lucky season

[Dexter]

Odds to win the 2010 American League Pennant New York Yankees +185 Boston Red Sox +285 Tampa Bay Rays +1015 Los Angeles Angels +1015 Seattle Mariners +1615 Detroit Tigers +2250 Minnesota Twins +1215 Chicago White Sox +1615 Texas Rangers +1415 Oakland Athletics +2050

Odds to win the 2010 National League Pennant St Louis Cardinals +345 Chicago Cubs +805 Philadelphia Phillies +285 New York Mets +845 Florida Marlins +1615 Atlanta Braves +1015 Los Angeles Dodgers +865 Colorado Rockies +1415 San Francisco Giants +1615 Arizona Diamondbacks +1415 Milwaukee Brewers +3050 Cincinnati Reds +2050

Odds to win the 2010 American League Pennant New York Yankees +185 Boston Red Sox +285 Tampa Bay Rays +1015 Los Angeles Angels +1015 Seattle Mariners +1615 Detroit Tigers +2250 Minnesota Twins +1215 Chicago White Sox +1615 Texas Rangers +1415 Oakland Athletics +2050

DRays vs Giants.......DRays

[shoebox]

Mariners +1615 vs cubs +805
Rays +1015 vs Atlanta Braves +1015

Those are my "out of the box" predictions

[shoebox]

Heres some tools you can use for baseball besides whip, era, ba, slugg

sabermetrics

BABIP: Batting average on balls in play. It's the frequency of which a batter reaches a base after putting the ball in the field of play. For pitchers (a measure of the hitters they face), it's a good measure of luck. So pitchers with high or low BABIPs are good bets to see their performances adjust to the mean.
BsR: Base runs. Similar to runs created (see below). It estimates the number of runs a team "should" have scored given their component offensive statistics.
CERA: Component ERA. It's an estimate of a pitcher's ERA based upon the individual components of his statistical line, another statistic that tries to take luck out of the equation.
Def Eff: Defensive efficiency. It's the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs by a team's defense. Can be approximated with (1 - BABIP).
dERA: This is a measurement of what a pitcher's earned run average would have been, if not for the effects of defense and luck. It uses batters faced, home runs allowed, walks allowed, intentional walks allowed, strikeouts and hit batsmen in a complex mathematical formula.
DICE: Defense-independent component ERA. It's a mathematice formula that measures pitching performance using home runs allowed, walks, hit by pitch, strikeouts and innings pitched.
DIPS: Defense-independent pitching statistics. They are a series of statistics (such as DICE above) that measure a pitcher's effectiveness based only on plays that do not involve fielders: home runs allowed, strikeouts, hit batters, walks, and, more recently, fly ball percentage, ground ball percentage, and line drive percentage.
EqA: Equivalent average. It's a stat used to measure hitters independent of ballpark and league effects. It's a complex formula that takes into account hits, total bases, walks, hit by pitch, stolen bases, sacrifice hits, sacrifice flies, at-bats and caught stealing. It's then normalized for league difficulty.
ERA+: Adjusted ERA. It's earned run average adjusted for the ballpark and the league average.
Fielding Runs Above Replacement: The difference between an average player and a replacement player is determined by the number of plays that position is called on to make.
IR: Inherited runs. It's the number of runners inherited by a relief pitcher that scored while the reliever was in the game.
ISO: Isolated power. It's a measure of a hitter's raw power - extra bases per at-bat.
LIPS: Late-inning pressure situation. It means any at-bat in the seventh inning or later, with the batter's team trailing by three runs or less (or four runs if the bases were loaded).
Runs created: A term to measure how many runs a player creates. Its basic formula is hits plus walks times total bases, divided by at-bats plus walks.
OPS: On-base plus slugging. Measures a batter's ability to get on base and hit for power. It's simply the on-base percentage plus the slugging percentage.
PECOTA: An acronym of Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. And it's also an homage to journeyman baseball player Bill Pecota, considered a baseline average player.
PERA: Peripheral ERA. It's a pitching statistic that computes the expected ERA, taking into account park-adjusted hits, walks, strikeouts and home runs allowed.
Pythagorean expectation: It's a formula that resembles the mathematical Pythagorean theorem and is used to estimate how many games a baseball team should have won, based on how many runs a team scored and allowed. Comparing the two percentages can determine how lucky a team was.
QS: Quality start. A game in which a pitcher completes six innings, allowing no more than three runs.
RF: Range factor. Used to determine how much field a player can cover. It's nine times putouts + assists divided by innings played.
TPR: Total player rating. It measures the value of players that allows players to be compared for different positions, teams and eras
VORP: Value over replacement player. For hitters, it's the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute.
WARP: Wins above replacement player. It's a statistic that combines win shares and WORP. It represents the number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done.
WHIP: Walks and hits per inning pitched. It's the average number of walks and hits allowed by the pitcher per inning. (BB + H divided by IP).
Win shares: One of the first sabermetrics statistics, it considers statistics for players in the context of their team, and assigns them a number that's one-third of a team win, using a set of complex mathematics
XR: Extrapolated runs, similar to runs created, except it assigns a run value to each event, rather than a multiplicative formula.

[shoebox]

Good luck Shoe i will be keeping my eyes on this thread

I learn a new word today SB .
BOL for this coming season Sir.

This thread will be silent as always

This Sunday is a Vietnamese/Chinese New Year, give you 9 points to wish for you a lucky season

Thanks DE

[mlb]

Good Luck man .. Will be keeping an eye on yours as well .. I will be making one as well... but I won't start it til the season nears ... heres to a profitable season

[shoebox]

Good Luck man .. Will be keeping an eye on yours as well .. I will be making one as well... but I won't start it til the season nears ... heres to a profitable season

thanks

[EXhoosier10]

Shoe, not sure if you saw the new baseball prospectus series about there new system, SIERA (link to part 4: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=10042), but it seems that tRA and FIP are the best at estimating same-season ERA adjusted for park factors.

I'm sure those metrics aren't the only ones you use, but I thought these would be helpful to mention to the rest of the people looking around here.

[shoebox]

Just giving out somethings to look at without giving everything away. Pick and choose what works for you, expectation is great to use. Moat think it's all whip era etc..... It's much more complex than that
just offering some basic tools to help you along.

[TodaysAction]

[Dexter]

pirates gonna be ur cash cow again?

[shoebox]

Those trades messed up everything, Liking the rockies so far..

[TodaysAction]

Thank you and appreciate what you said about me in this forum (just read it today - kinda busy, you know - the normal).

[TodaysAction]

Those trades messed up everything, Liking the rockies so far..

Interesting.

[shoebox]

Should have great value this year Terry, undervalued IMO... Just the way I like it

[shoebox]

play #1 Balt -129 (1u)

[chisox19]

bol on the year

[Beastxxx]

Welcome back for another year shoebox.
I will be here again from my rookie year last year.
I was following some of those wins with you on the nats last year.
Good luck and here is to a great year.

[shoebox]

bol on the year

Welcome back for another year shoebox.
I will be here again from my rookie year last year.
I was following some of those wins with you on the nats last year.
Good luck and here is to a great year.

Yes the nats were good to me last season. One game in particular is when Zambrano came off the DL and they lit him up like a XMAS tree. Nice little +200 wager cashed, thanks for the kind words and lets get this season done on the plus side.

[shoebox]

The Fall Classic begins for me lets play some ball!

[shoebox]

play #1 balt -129 (1u)

0-1 -1.29 mlb season ytd

[Beastxxx]

Yes the nats were good to me last season. One game in particular is when Zambrano came off the DL and they lit him up like a XMAS tree. Nice little +200 wager cashed, thanks for the kind words and lets get this season done on the plus side.

I know ShoeBox and I usually bet against Zambrano anyway.
Lets have a good season, I won't start betting until opening day though.

[shoebox]

play #2 balt +107 (2u)

[shoebox]

play # 3 cards -142 (2.1 units)

[shoebox]

play # 3 cards -142 (2.1 units)

1-1 +.81 units YTD

[TodaysAction]

play # 3 cards -142 (2.1 units)

Congrats on getting a GREAT LINE at 1:00pm and cashing!