02-12-10, 07:09 PM
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#1
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Stridulation
Here's my season long MLB thread, feel free to tail, fade, or disreguard/disregard. Will be adding a few tid-bits here before the season starts.
GL!!
Last edited by shoebox; 02-12-10 at 08:31 PM.
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Points Awarded:
 darkenergy gave shoebox 9 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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02-12-10, 08:19 PM
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#2
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 heres the symbol for my plays
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02-12-10, 08:26 PM
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#3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoebox
Here's my season long MLB thread, feel free to tail, fade, or disreguard. Will be adding a few tid-bits here before the season starts.
GL!!
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sweet spelling! 
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02-12-10, 08:31 PM
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#4
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guard gard you get the picture
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02-12-10, 08:33 PM
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#5
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02-12-10, 08:37 PM
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#6
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02-12-10, 09:03 PM
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#8
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I learn a new word today SB  .
BOL for this coming season Sir. |
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02-12-10, 09:05 PM
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#9
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Good luck Shoe i will be keeping my eyes on this thread  |
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02-12-10, 09:06 PM
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#10
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This Sunday is a Vietnamese/Chinese New Year, give you 9 points to wish for you a lucky season |
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02-12-10, 09:14 PM
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#11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoebox
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoebox
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoebox
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DRays vs Giants... ....DRays
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02-12-10, 09:23 PM
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#12
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Mariners +1615 vs cubs +805
Rays +1015 vs Atlanta Braves +1015
Those are my "out of the box" predictions
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02-12-10, 09:26 PM
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#13
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Heres some tools you can use for baseball besides whip, era, ba, slugg
sabermetrics
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play. It's the frequency of which a batter reaches a base after putting the ball in the field of play. For pitchers (a measure of the hitters they face), it's a good measure of luck. So pitchers with high or low BABIPs are good bets to see their performances adjust to the mean.
BsR: Base runs. Similar to runs created (see below). It estimates the number of runs a team "should" have scored given their component offensive statistics.
CERA: Component ERA. It's an estimate of a pitcher's ERA based upon the individual components of his statistical line, another statistic that tries to take luck out of the equation.
Def Eff: Defensive efficiency. It's the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs by a team's defense. Can be approximated with (1 - BABIP).
dERA: This is a measurement of what a pitcher's earned run average would have been, if not for the effects of defense and luck. It uses batters faced, home runs allowed, walks allowed, intentional walks allowed, strikeouts and hit batsmen in a complex mathematical formula.
DICE: Defense-independent component ERA. It's a mathematice formula that measures pitching performance using home runs allowed, walks, hit by pitch, strikeouts and innings pitched.
DIPS: Defense-independent pitching statistics. They are a series of statistics (such as DICE above) that measure a pitcher's effectiveness based only on plays that do not involve fielders: home runs allowed, strikeouts, hit batters, walks, and, more recently, fly ball percentage, ground ball percentage, and line drive percentage.
EqA: Equivalent average. It's a stat used to measure hitters independent of ballpark and league effects. It's a complex formula that takes into account hits, total bases, walks, hit by pitch, stolen bases, sacrifice hits, sacrifice flies, at-bats and caught stealing. It's then normalized for league difficulty.
ERA+: Adjusted ERA. It's earned run average adjusted for the ballpark and the league average.
Fielding Runs Above Replacement: The difference between an average player and a replacement player is determined by the number of plays that position is called on to make.
IR: Inherited runs. It's the number of runners inherited by a relief pitcher that scored while the reliever was in the game.
ISO: Isolated power. It's a measure of a hitter's raw power - extra bases per at-bat.
LIPS: Late-inning pressure situation. It means any at-bat in the seventh inning or later, with the batter's team trailing by three runs or less (or four runs if the bases were loaded).
Runs created: A term to measure how many runs a player creates. Its basic formula is hits plus walks times total bases, divided by at-bats plus walks.
OPS: On-base plus slugging. Measures a batter's ability to get on base and hit for power. It's simply the on-base percentage plus the slugging percentage.
PECOTA: An acronym of Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. And it's also an homage to journeyman baseball player Bill Pecota, considered a baseline average player.
PERA: Peripheral ERA. It's a pitching statistic that computes the expected ERA, taking into account park-adjusted hits, walks, strikeouts and home runs allowed.
Pythagorean expectation: It's a formula that resembles the mathematical Pythagorean theorem and is used to estimate how many games a baseball team should have won, based on how many runs a team scored and allowed. Comparing the two percentages can determine how lucky a team was.
QS: Quality start. A game in which a pitcher completes six innings, allowing no more than three runs.
RF: Range factor. Used to determine how much field a player can cover. It's nine times putouts + assists divided by innings played.
TPR: Total player rating. It measures the value of players that allows players to be compared for different positions, teams and eras
VORP: Value over replacement player. For hitters, it's the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute.
WARP: Wins above replacement player. It's a statistic that combines win shares and WORP. It represents the number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done.
WHIP: Walks and hits per inning pitched. It's the average number of walks and hits allowed by the pitcher per inning. (BB + H divided by IP).
Win shares: One of the first sabermetrics statistics, it considers statistics for players in the context of their team, and assigns them a number that's one-third of a team win, using a set of complex mathematics
XR: Extrapolated runs, similar to runs created, except it assigns a run value to each event, rather than a multiplicative formula.
Last edited by shoebox; 02-12-10 at 09:32 PM.
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02-12-10, 09:36 PM
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#14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lakerboy
Good luck Shoe i will be keeping my eyes on this thread |
Quote:
Originally Posted by darkenergy
I learn a new word today SB .
BOL for this coming season Sir. |
 This thread will be silent as always
Quote:
Originally Posted by darkenergy
This Sunday is a Vietnamese/Chinese New Year, give you 9 points to wish for you a lucky season |
Thanks DE
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02-12-10, 09:49 PM
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#15
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Good Luck man .. Will be keeping an eye on yours as well .. I will be making one as well... but I won't start it til the season nears ... heres to a profitable season |
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02-12-10, 09:58 PM
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#16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mlb
Good Luck man .. Will be keeping an eye on yours as well .. I will be making one as well... but I won't start it til the season nears ... heres to a profitable season |
thanks
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02-13-10, 10:51 AM
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#17
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Shoe, not sure if you saw the new baseball prospectus series about there new system, SIERA (link to part 4: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=10042), but it seems that tRA and FIP are the best at estimating same-season ERA adjusted for park factors.
I'm sure those metrics aren't the only ones you use, but I thought these would be helpful to mention to the rest of the people looking around here. |
175 pts
3-QUESTION
SBR TRIVIA WINNER 02/07/2012
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02-13-10, 12:12 PM
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#18
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Just giving out somethings to look at without giving everything away. Pick and choose what works for you, expectation is great to use. Moat think it's all whip era etc..... It's much more complex than that
just offering some basic tools to help you along.
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02-13-10, 12:31 PM
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#19
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http://www.winningwithtodaysaction.net/
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02-15-10, 09:32 PM
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#20
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pirates gonna be ur cash cow again?
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02-16-10, 09:36 PM
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#21
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Those trades messed up everything, Liking the rockies so far..
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03-01-10, 04:18 PM
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#22
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http://www.winningwithtodaysaction.net/
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Thank you and appreciate what you said about me in this forum (just read it today - kinda busy, you know - the normal). |
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03-06-10, 12:17 AM
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#23
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http://www.winningwithtodaysaction.net/
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoebox
Those trades messed up everything, Liking the rockies so far..
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Interesting.
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03-06-10, 10:31 AM
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#24
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Should have great value this year Terry, undervalued IMO... Just the way I like it
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03-08-10, 11:58 PM
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#25
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play #1 Balt -129 (1u)
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03-09-10, 12:05 AM
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#26
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bol on the year
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03-09-10, 08:55 AM
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#27
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Welcome back for another year shoebox.
I will be here again from my rookie year last year.
I was following some of those wins with you on the nats last year.
Good luck and here is to a great year.
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03-09-10, 12:29 PM
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#28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chisox19
bol on the year
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beastxxx
Welcome back for another year shoebox.
I will be here again from my rookie year last year.
I was following some of those wins with you on the nats last year.
Good luck and here is to a great year.
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Yes the nats were good to me last season. One game in particular is when Zambrano came off the DL and they lit him up like a XMAS tree. Nice little +200 wager cashed, thanks for the kind words and lets get this season done on the plus side.
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03-09-10, 01:03 PM
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#29
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The Fall Classic begins for me lets play some ball!
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03-09-10, 05:19 PM
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#30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoebox
play #1 balt -129 (1u)
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0-1 -1.29 mlb season ytd
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03-09-10, 06:40 PM
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#31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoebox
Yes the nats were good to me last season. One game in particular is when Zambrano came off the DL and they lit him up like a XMAS tree. Nice little +200 wager cashed, thanks for the kind words and lets get this season done on the plus side.
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I know ShoeBox and I usually bet against Zambrano anyway.
Lets have a good season, I won't start betting until opening day though.
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03-10-10, 10:42 AM
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#32
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play #2 balt +107 (2u)
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03-10-10, 01:00 PM
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#33
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play # 3 cards -142 (2.1 units)
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03-10-10, 03:57 PM
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#34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoebox
play # 3 cards -142 (2.1 units)
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1-1 +.81 units YTD
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03-10-10, 04:02 PM
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#35
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http://www.winningwithtodaysaction.net/
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoebox
play # 3 cards -142 (2.1 units)
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Congrats on getting a GREAT LINE at 1:00pm and cashing! 
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