[Dexter]

i'm starting to read up on offseason moves and figured why not get the thread started. as always, this is a group thread. feel free to post your plays/analysis. my plays will range from 1-5 units with an occasional heavier play. here are the autobets i will use coming into this season. all 3 were around 500 last year, but i believe in the theories and have tweaked them slightly:

A1 - play a pitcher who has a whip of 1.00 or < in his last 3 games over a pitcher who has a 1.80 or > whip in his last 3. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days. play gets moved to the runline when the moneyline is 150 or >.

A2 - play the over when both pitchers have a whip of 1.80 or > in their last 3 games. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days.

A3 - play the under when both pitchers have a whip of 1.00 or < in their last 3 games. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days.

i will rarely play a run line favorite this year as it did not prove successful for me last year after moderate success in 2008. mostly light favorites, dogs and totals.

[Bones402]

sounds good BOL to u this year hope it pans out. The theories sound pretty solid

[Rainman328]

those are some good theories. What was your record/how many units did each return?

and by the way, i've completely given up on run lines. I think they are a trap all together because the public favors -1.5 too strongly that statistically speaking, you're simply better off taking the money line. I did take one +1.5 line in my life, it was the world baseball classic where the US scored 3 in the ninth to win 6-5. It was a damn good feeling taking puerto rico (or was it domincan?) at +1.5

[EXhoosier10]

like thew autobets again dex. gl

[sportsfan2009]

i can not wait itsss only like 50 days away baseballlllll....

[xyzky]

Any future bets? I love ML baseball dogs!

[Bones402]

ya i cant wait for baseball either hopefully my braves do something this year

[Dexter]

Originally Posted by Rainman328

those are some good theories. What was your record/how many units did each return?

and by the way, i've completely given up on run lines. I think they are a trap all together because the public favors -1.5 too strongly that statistically speaking, you're simply better off taking the money line. I did take one +1.5 line in my life, it was the world baseball classic where the US scored 3 in the ninth to win 6-5. It was a damn good feeling taking puerto rico (or was it domincan?) at +1.5

all 3 were around 50% last year but i did tweak each system by adding that the pitchers must have pitched 3 times in the last 30 days.

[darkenergy]

BOL this year Mr. Dex.
Just wonder Ragiche gonna his own thread too

[jakeandba]

gl my friend, how you are successful,,,love reading your thread since it always has great discussiong

[Andy117]

I've never bet on baseball before, should be interesting.

[DuncHen22]

Here is a really interesting find regarding over/under for baseball based on who the umpire is:

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/b.../09umpires.htm

Over Umpires:

1. Eric Cooper 13-6 68.4%
2. Randy Marsh 12-6 66.7%
3. Tim McCelland 12-6 66.7%
4. Laz Diaz 11-6 64.7%
5. Jeff Nelson 10-6 62.5%
6. Jim Reynolds 8-5 61.5%
7. Jerry Meals 11-7 61.1%
7. Dale Scott 11-7 61.1%
7. Lance Barksdale 11-7 61.1%
10. Bruce Dreckman 9-6 60%

Under Umpires

1. Andy Fletcher 3-14 17.6%
2. Scott Barry 5-14 26.3%
3. Brian Runge 5-12 29.4%
3. Brian Gorman 5-12 29.4%
5. Ron Kulpa 3-7 30%
5. John Hirschbeck 6-14 30%
7. Bill Miller 6-13 31.6%
8. Ted Barrett 6-12 33.3%
8. Charlie Reliford 6-12 33.3%
8. James Hoye 7-14 33.3%

I think this may have written during the season last year so I would be curious to know how it ended up, or look at previous years to make sure these numbers are consistent for each up. If this is legit though, it could be huge!

[DuncHen22]

Okay, I found this site that has umpire stats:

http://www.statfox.com/mlb/umpirerep...~umpireid~.htm
http://www.******************/n_input...der_umpire.htm

It looks like if you were to follow this guys advice (from the list above) and bet the over on Eric Cooper's games, you would have gone 5-8 the rest of the season, and Andy Fletcher (the most under guy) went 7-7 the rest of the season.

So maybe just looking at that may not work but I'm going to look into this to see if there's some other trend with umps. Perhaps looking at the number of strikes they call or something.

[chaseman]

Just seeing Dexter's MLB 2010 thread popping up is like a breath of fresh air from all this NBA nonsense. Best of luck in the coming season.

[Dexter]

dunchen - thats some great info. post your findings in this thread. i may def incorporate that data for a few small plays since ive never used that angle before.

on a different note - i really think im going to max out my plays at 3 per day in baseball. going back to my old theory that less plays is better....

[mlb]

Good luck this year dex... Will share any info I can that could be beneficial ... hopefully! Either way have a good season

[DuncHen22]

Originally Posted by Dexter

dunchen - thats some great info. post your findings in this thread. i may def incorporate that data for a few small plays since ive never used that angle before. on a different note - i really think im going to max out my plays at 3 per day in baseball. going back to my old theory that less plays is better....

Thanks Dexter!

I actually wrote a post on my blog looking into umpire stats and totals. Part 1 shows my data analysis and conclusions, and Part 2 lists the umpires I will be looking at this year. It's not necessarily complete and I want to look at more data than just total runs scored and over/under percentage. I will try to incorporate something like number of called strikes too or something.

Anyway, you can look at those and give me your comments/feedback/questions (you can keep it going here in this thread or comment on my actual blog, either way is fine), and feel free to use it any way you'd like as well.

[Dexter]

im a huge Fantasy sports player (mlb, nba and nfl).....and its because of my fantasy leagues that im so in tune with all players/teams at the pro level. that is why i cap pro sports myself, and rely more on line movements in college sports. right now im reading up on all mlb teams, and here is my deep sleeper #1 in baseball:

Drew Stubbs OF (Reds)

[mlb]

I like it man! Just started a 31 round dynasty keeper league draft today... Got albert with the 2nd pick ... Always looking for sleepers... What's the timeframe on getting to the majors?

[therber2]

Hey Dex and gang,

Good to see you are getting started with MLB brutha. Hey Dunc, I am going to lightly take that ump angle into account; big time thanks for sharing that info. Let me repeat though: lightly. There are other much bigger factors to take into account. For overs and unders take a look at seasonals. Did the last 3 seasons start off low scoring in the first couple months? What is the average score around the All Star game? How does park size and weather, 3 day and career pitcher and bullpen WHIP and ERA, 3 day and long term team slugging rates affect the game total. These are the bigger ones imho.

Dex, your theory is right I think: less plays = better results. The fact is more plays are great, but the more logical filters you slap onto your picks the less you will come up with. Key word there though: logical. Make sure you have raw data to support your filter.

Keep the ideas flowing guys. Let's share the knowledge. Dexter, where will you be posting your plays? Do you want to do a general MLB crew thread?

[therber2]

Originally Posted by Dexter

A1 - play a pitcher who has a whip of 1.00 or < in his last 3 games over a pitcher who has a 1.80 or > whip in his last 3. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days. play gets moved to the runline when the moneyline is 150 or >.

A2 - play the over when both pitchers have a whip of 1.80 or > in their last 3 games. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days.

A3 - play the under when both pitchers have a whip of 1.00 or < in their last 3 games. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days.

i will rarely play a run line favorite this year as it did not prove successful for me last year after moderate success in 2008. mostly light favorites, dogs and totals.

Hey Dex, I am just going to give you my thoughts on the autobets. They look good, and I am not sure if you added your "tweaks" here or if they are up in the old brain.

For A1 I would look at two other factors mainly:
-3 games is good but I would include either one other set of games say 10 game WHIP and ERA. Filter idea (not tested): the selected pitcher has a 3 game to career WHIP difference of < -.8 and the opposing pitcher has a 3 game to career WHIP difference of > .8 = cancel bet.
-The 3 game bullpen WHIP for the opposing team is much lower (say more than .5-.8 than selected pitcher's team = cancel bet.

A2 - Sounds good
For me: OVER = high park factor + decent weather (light to very light wind or wind pointed to balls destination) + pitchers' 3 game WHIPs total over about 3.6 + high slugging rates for both teams + bad bullpens

A3 - Looks good too. My opinion is the opposite equation as above.

Something the really worked out great last season was looking at innings with runs scored for the last 3-10 games for a team. NOT average runs per game. The better indicator is consistent scoring per inning. So if a teams wins and scored 5 or 6 runs in one of the innings it is not important for picking your winning team or a game total. A much better way to quantify a team's value or likelyhood to score high is consistent scoring per inning. Which teams score in more than 50% of the innings played?

[julio_cat]

Nice Theory.
IMO, A2 plays are strong only before the All-Star game. Few pitchers with that numbers survive in July/August

[crownontheground]

a2 all the way

[EXhoosier10]

Originally Posted by therber2

Something the really worked out great last season was looking at innings with runs scored for the last 3-10 games for a team. NOT average runs per game. The better indicator is consistent scoring per inning. So if a teams wins and scored 5 or 6 runs in one of the innings it is not important for picking your winning team or a game total. A much better way to quantify a team's value or likelyhood to score high is consistent scoring per inning. Which teams score in more than 50% of the innings played?

Definitely the right strategy instead of runs/game. Definitely something to take into account.

[Sawyer]

Originally Posted by Dexter

A1 - play a pitcher who has a whip of 1.00 or < in his last 3 games over a pitcher who has a 1.80 or > whip in his last 3. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days. play gets moved to the runline when the moneyline is 150 or >.

A2 - play the over when both pitchers have a whip of 1.80 or > in their last 3 games. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days.

A3 - play the under when both pitchers have a whip of 1.00 or < in their last 3 games. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days.

it sounds a good idea to keep record for these angles. may be profitable on the long run

[scarp]

wow.. sounds like you put a lot of thinking into this.

[TodaysAction]

Before things get rolling in here to much further and I forget, I hope you have a successful wagering season Dexter.

[stealthyburrito]

GL Dex, Baseball season is the greatest time of the year

[whatsgood5]

BOL This year Dexter! Season's right around the corner

[Dexter]

Originally Posted by Sawyer

it sounds a good idea to keep record for these angles. may be profitable on the long run

im a former pitcher - its all about the whip

[Dexter]

Originally Posted by mlb

I like it man! Just started a 31 round dynasty keeper league draft today... Got albert with the 2nd pick ... Always looking for sleepers... What's the timeframe on getting to the majors?

hes the favorite heading into spring for the starting CF job....

[Dexter]

Originally Posted by therber2

Hey Dex, I am just going to give you my thoughts on the autobets. They look good, and I am not sure if you added your "tweaks" here or if they are up in the old brain.

For A1 I would look at two other factors mainly:
-3 games is good but I would include either one other set of games say 10 game WHIP and ERA. Filter idea (not tested): the selected pitcher has a 3 game to career WHIP difference of < -.8 and the opposing pitcher has a 3 game to career WHIP difference of > .8 = cancel bet.
-The 3 game bullpen WHIP for the opposing team is much lower (say more than .5-.8 than selected pitcher's team = cancel bet.

A2 - Sounds good
For me: OVER = high park factor + decent weather (light to very light wind or wind pointed to balls destination) + pitchers' 3 game WHIPs total over about 3.6 + high slugging rates for both teams + bad bullpens

A3 - Looks good too. My opinion is the opposite equation as above.

Something the really worked out great last season was looking at innings with runs scored for the last 3-10 games for a team. NOT average runs per game. The better indicator is consistent scoring per inning. So if a teams wins and scored 5 or 6 runs in one of the innings it is not important for picking your winning team or a game total. A much better way to quantify a team's value or likelyhood to score high is consistent scoring per inning. Which teams score in more than 50% of the innings played?

i did add the tweaks here - they are making sure the pitchers last 3 starts were in the last 30 days.

your other ideas def sound good....will keep them in mind. i should def factor bullpen whip as most games do end up in the pens hand.....lemme think about this and look at the data sets available to me...

[Dexter]

Originally Posted by Dexter

im a huge Fantasy sports player (mlb, nba and nfl).....and its because of my fantasy leagues that im so in tune with all players/teams at the pro level. that is why i cap pro sports myself, and rely more on line movements in college sports. right now im reading up on all mlb teams, and here is my deep sleeper #1 in baseball:

Drew Stubbs OF (Reds)

#2 - Carlos Gonzalez OF (Rockies)

[Dexter]

Originally Posted by whatsgood5

BOL This year Dexter! Season's right around the corner

t. hanson - keeper

[Dexter]

must read for not only fantasy but also betting purposes...

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/tom_verducci/02/16/verducci.effect/index.html