[Emancipator]

Nationals ML +110 (0.45 to win 0.50)
Nationals TTR o3.5@ +105 (0.48 to win 0.50)
Roark is off to an impressive start in his young career, and one what I find most impressive so far is that he has only allowed one home run in about 60 innings of work, that coming at Busch which is understandable. Small sample size, but it's probably why he has fared so well against the Braves in his 11 innings of play and is why he's a good bet a plus money. Teheran has pitched pretty well against the Nat's including his season opener this year, but there are guys in this Washington lineup that have shown the ability to hit his stuff (Desmond, Span, Laroche, Harper) which is why I like their chances of picking up a fifth straight victory, especially at plus money.

CHW/CLE FF o4.0 -110 (1.10 to win 1.00)
Carrasco's has shown himself to be very mediocre so far in his career, and won't last long if he keeps performing in this manner versus division opponents. While Sale has also been roughed up by these Indians, and don't see him escaping the first five without allowing at least a couple runs himself, with first seven in the lineup tonight hitting a combined .300 against him.

[Emancipator]

PIT/CHC U7.5 @ -120 (0.60 to win 0.50) LOSS
-----------------------------------------
Nationals ML +110 (0.45 to win 0.50) LOSS
Nationals TTR o3.5@ +105 (0.48 to win 0.50) WIN
CHW/CLE FF o4.0 -110 (1.10 to win 1.00) WIN

Combined Day Total: 2-2 (+0.45)
Overall: 21-11 (+8.85)
Total Units Risked: 24.07
ROI: 36.77%

[Emancipator]

Indians FF RL +110 (0.50 to win 0.55)
Can't ignore what Masterson has done the past five games against the White Sox, especially going up against Felipe Paulino even if he pitched okay versus the Indians before his surgery. I feel like this first five RL should be juiced.

[Emancipator]

Athletics RL +135 (0.50 to win 0.68)
I would like Ramirez chances of better of putting his team in position to win this game if his performance against the A's hasn't progressively deteriorated with each game, he has good chance to do better than his last outing @ home but he'll be going up against Gray, who has put his team in position to win his first three outings against the Mariners in his young career. Athletics will get a nice step down in difficulty as well after facing Hernandez yesterday, who they never hit anyways. I would think the A's will have extra incentive to put runs on the board today.

[Emancipator]

I really want to take the DET/SD FF over at +135 but I'll lay off since it's in Diego.

[Emancipator]

Phillies -1 @ +113
Phillies ML -120 (0.60 to win 0.50)
Phillies RL +170 (0.29 to win 0.50)
I find it hard too imagine that the Marlins would somehow not get swept today. The first two games I think were their best chances at coming out with a win and they couldn't make it happen. The Marlins haven't been relevant for about five years now and Kyle Kendrick's performance can probably be attributed to that. And since the Marlins are starting to show that the want to be sub mediocre team again this year, there is not much reason to think that this trend won't continue. While Alvarez hasn't been all that sharp early on this season, and seems like a good fade today.

[Emancipator]

OAK/SEA U7.5 @ -110 (0.55 to win 0.50)
Chris Young is a flyball pitcher but he should be able to keep them in the park today given he's in Seattle with the wind blowing in from center field today. On the other side Kluber has fared well against this players he has seen from the past in this Mariners lineup that will be interspersed with some he hasn't seen. Factor a couple top 10 bullpens and I'd say more than half the time this game total would end at 7 or under.

Rockies ML +135 (0.37 to win 0.50)

[Emancipator]

4/12 & 4/13
Indians FF RL +110 (0.50 to win 0.55) LOSS
Athletics RL +135 (0.50 to win 0.68) WIN
--------------------------------------
Phillies -1 @ +113 PUSH
Phillies ML -120 (0.60 to win 0.50)
Phillies RL +170 (0.29 to win 0.50)
OAK/SEA U7.5 @ -110 (0.55 to win 0.50) WIN
Rockies ML +135 (0.37 to win 0.50) LOSS

Combined Day Total: 2-2-1 (+0.52)
Overall: 23-13-1 (+9.37)
Units Risked: 26.88
ROI: 34.86%

A bit frustrated considering my three losses were all by a margin of one run. Still if this is what my ruts are going to be like this baseball season, I'll take it considering I managed to eke out a small profit.

[Emancipator]

Braves FF RL +120 (0.83 to win 1.00)
This seems like a no brainer but we'll see. Both teams are on a 3 game win streak but the Phillies run came against the bottom feeder Marlins, while the Braves got theirs off a stout Washington team with good pitching, scoring more than five runs in each game. Now the Braves will head to Philly and will face off against Roberto Hernandez and I will be disappointed if runs are not scored against this mediocre pitcher after what was done to Gonzalez, Roark, Jordan. While Santana will be coming off a shutout. Though it was against the Mets. The wind will be blowing out to left field today and both hitter give up home runs pretty easily. Especially Santana who averages one per game and may very well give one up, but I feel like I'm getting the better pitcher at a good price here. While neutralizing this solid Nationals bullpen against a pitcher the Braves should be able to rough up. We'll see.

[Emancipator]

TB/BAL U8.5 Even (1.00 to win 1.00)
40 degrees with the win blowing in from left at 20 mph will put a damper on alot of the flyballs that these two pitchers give up. Baltimore hasn't hit the ball well at Camden so far this year, and the Rays have been the opposite on the road. I think these two pitchers are better than what they have done so far this year and they have a good chance to put in a solid games in this kind of weather, Odorizzi especially as he hasn't played more than a couple innings against the Orioles in his career.

[Emancipator]

KC/HOU U8.5 -105 (1.05 to win 1.00)
Harrell is due for a good game, and this is a good spot for him to get it against a Royals team that isn't putting runs on the board so far this year, and is one that Harrell pitched seven shutout innings last year on two hits and a few walks. While Ventura will face off for the first time against the this Astros ball club.

[Emancipator]

Rays vs Orioles cancelled yesterday, I'm not placing another bet on the under.

Cubs FF ML +170 (0.29 to win 0.50)
CHC/NYY U7.5 -110 (0.55 to win 0.50)
There are a few guys in this Yankees lineup that have been able to hit Hammel (Soriano, Ellsbury, Johnson) Solarte also stands a good chance at getting a hit. However, even though the Yanks have been able to get on base against Hammel they havent been very good at manufacturing runs when they do. He's also off to good start with a couple of nice games against Pittsburgh and stands a good chance to continue with the weather conditions today. Tanaka on the other side, hasn't faced any of the batters on this Cubs team so he stands a good chance at pitching a very good game as well and is why I like the under in this matchup. But, I would like to think that the outcome of the first five is somewhat of a coin flip on a day like this and is therefore worth a play at +170.

[Emancipator]

(NBA) Suns -2 (0.55 to win 0.50)
Kings will be sitting Cousins and Gay tonight. Though the Dragic will be out as well. The Suns are still the better team and I think Hornacek will have them finish out the season strong as I think they don't want to lose three of four to the Kings, so I think they are playing for some of their pride in this matchup. Plus I like fading home underdogs after they've won the previous game as a home underdog.

[Emancipator]

Braves FF RL +120 (0.83 to win 1.00) LOSS
---------------------------------
KC/HOU U8.5 -105 (1.05 to win 1.00) WIN
----------------------------------
Cubs FF ML +170 (0.29 to win 0.50) LOSS
CHC/NYY U7.5 -110 (0.55 to win 0.50) WIN
(NBA) Suns -2 (0.55 to win 0.50) WIN

Combined Day Total: 3-2 (+0.88)
Overall: 26-15-1 (+10.25)
Total Units Risked: 30.15
ROI: 34.00%

[Emancipator]

Tigers TTR U4 +105 (0.71 to win 0.75)
I feel like the Tigers are getting a too much respect on this line. Yes they have a solid lineup, but so far this year that has not been evident. Sure they could decide to return to their mean, but I would expect it will be a different time and place. I think Salazar and company have a good chance holding Detriot to three runs or less in this weather, asSalazar has proven he can deal in Detriot with six shutout innings last year, on the way to a 4-0 win. I feel he has good shot at turning this play into a potential winner.

[Emancipator]

Rays +101 (Will treat as if it's -1)
Rays FF RL -120 (0.90 to win 0.75)
Rays RL +130 (0.58 to win 0.75)
Rays have lost three in a row, but that has actually been a good spot to take them on the runline in the past 10 years or so, especially against the Yankees as they have won 8 of 9 in such situations. Rays will be sending David Price who is coming a solid game in Cincinnati and looks to do the same against a Yankees team. While Jeter and Roberts have had success against Price, the Yankees lineup otherwise looks pretty nice for Price and he has fared very well in his past five starts with the oddball coming last year when he was pitching poorly. Sabathia on the other hand has been getting pelted by this Rays lineup over the past couple years as his stuff continues to decline, and it looks there is a good chance of this again today despite how the Rays are hitting the ball. Luckily the difference between how they hit the ball home and away is night and day with this lineup.
Away

GP

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

TB

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

8

258

14

48

10

0

6

76

14

.186

.258

.295

.553

Home

7

226

31

59

18

1

5

94

28

.261

.357

.416

.773

[jtmurray89]

Good thread man. Solid start to the season. Keep it up.

[Emancipator]

Mariners ML +110 (0.45 to win 0.50)
Ramirez had a good outing against the Rangers last year that lead to a Mariners win, we'll see if he can do it against Scheppers.

[Emancipator]

Good thread man. Solid start to the season. Keep it up.

Thanks, feels good to get off to a solid start.

[jtmurray89]

Mariners ML +110 (0.45 to win 0.50)
Ramirez had a good outing against the Rangers last year that lead to a Mariners win, we'll see if he can do it against Scheppers.

For the record, Mariners starter has a 6.42 ERA in 9 day games vs a 3.63 ERA in 24 night games.

I'm not on it though so I'll root for you.

[Emancipator]

For the record, Mariners starter has a 6.42 ERA in 9 day games vs a 3.63 ERA in 24 night games.

I'm not on it though so I'll root for you.

Yeesh, record noted. Already place a bet, so hopefully that changes today.

[Emancipator]

For the record, Mariners starter has a 6.42 ERA in 9 day games vs a 3.63 ERA in 24 night games.

I'm not on it though so I'll root for you.

You called it.

[Emancipator]

Mariners ML +110 (0.45 to win 0.50) LOSS
Rays +101 (Will treat as if it's -1) LOSS
Rays FF RL -120 (0.90 to win 0.75)
Rays RL +130 (0.58 to win 0.75)
Tigers TTR U4 +105 (0.71 to win 0.75) LOSS

Day Total: 0-3 (-2.64)
Overall: 26-18-1 (+7.61)
Total Units Risked: 32.79
ROI: 23.21%

[Emancipator]

Gonna take the day off from handicapping. Though Considering the Rays went down yesterday I'm gonna plop unit down on the Yankees knowing that Kuroda is a better pitcher than Bedard and neither have done well against their respective opponents. Difference is Yankees are on a role and hitting the ball very well, Tampa Bay couldn't get more than 2 runs of a Yankees team that started Sabathia, they had alot going for them and that was easily their best shot at a win in this series, and they get creamed. Not sure why the line is moving against the Yankees though ... I guess we'll find out if there is any substance to it.
Yankees ML Even (1.00 to win 1.00)

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Indians -1 @ +105
ML -130 (0.65 to win 0.50)
RL +165 (0.30 to win 0.50)
While Chen did pitch well last year in his two games against the Indians their are a few more guys that hit this lefty well than his counterpart Kluber for the Indians who won all four games last year against the Royals in which he started. The Royals have also been struggling to put men on base away from home, which makes it tough to win ballgames at Progressive Field.

[Emancipator]

Twins FF +125 (0.50 to win 0.63)
Nolasco pretty mediocre, but he's not as a bad as he's fared so far this year. We'll see if he can't bounce back and give the Twins a shot at winning. It helps he will be going against Bedard.

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PHI/LAD o7 -115 (1.15 to win 1.00)
Dodgers have consistently been able to get hits against Kendrick, while Haren has not been lights out against this Phillies lineup (Byrd kills Haren). Also Phillies bullpen that is among the worst in the league so the Dodgers can get Kendrick out during the FF, they have a good shot getting runs in the second half of the game as well.

[Emancipator]

Yankees ML Even (1.00 to win 1.00) LOSS
Indians -1 @ +105 WIN
ML -130 (0.65 to win 0.50)
RL +165 (0.30 to win 0.50)
Twins FF +125 (0.50 to win 0.63) WIN
PHI/LAD o7 -115 (1.15 to win 1.00) WIN

Combined Day Total: 3-1 (+1.63)
Overall: 29-19-1 (+9.24)
Total Units Risked: 36.39
ROI: 25.39%

[Emancipator]

CHW/TB U4.5 -105 (0.53 to win 0.50)
Johnson got off to rough start but he has fared well in his last two outings, allowing just four hits on three runs in 12 innings work against the Red Sox and Rangers. I'll be looking for him to continue his success at home against a Rays team that hasn't hit well away from Tampa so far this year and hasn't faced this 2nd year pitcher yet. And aside from his Baltimore outing, Archer has been solid and I'm looking for him to also continue that success against a lineup that has limited familiarity with him.

[Emancipator]

Parlay +155 (0.45 to win 0.70)
Twins RL -155
Brewers ML -180
Quite a bit of information points towards the Twins getting a victory or close loss. In addition to how Dogs fare at home in there first game after a road trip:

s:SO > 9 and s:W and AF and season > 2005
SU: 209-200 (0.12, 51.1%) avg line: -135.6 / 124.6 on / against: -$5,418 / +$3,306 ROI: -9.8% / +8.1% RL: 132-227 (-1.23, 36.8%) avg line: 123.9 / -136.3 on / against: -$6,972 / +$5,222 ROI: -18.7% / +10.5%

Though Cabrera and Hunter have fared well against Correia, the Righty otherwise has been quite effective in limiting the rest of the lineup, especially at home where he allowed just 7 runs through 27 innings and sporting a whip of 1.07. But due to the lack of run support in those games the Twins have only come out with a win in one of them. However Correia & company fared well enough in the other three to where the Twins lost by just one run. Tonight though there is a decent chance the he will get some run support.

Porcello has not fared well against the Twins outside of one excellent game last year.

BATTER	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	other site links
Oswaldo Arcia L	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	1.000	1.500
Josh Willingham R	18	7	2	0	2	7	5	5	1	0	.389	.542	.833	1.375
Jason Kubel L	30	13	3	0	1	2	1	5	0	1	.433	.452	.633	1.085
Chris Herrmann L	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500	1.000
Trevor Plouffe R	17	5	2	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	.294	.333	.588	.922
Brian Dozier R	13	4	0	0	1	5	0	2	2	0	.308	.308	.538	.846
Eduardo Nunez R	5	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	.400	.400	.400	.800
Kurt Suzuki R	14	3	2	0	0	2	4	0	0	1	.214	.368	.357	.726
Joe Mauer L	33	9	3	0	0	4	3	3	0	0	.273	.333	.364	.697
Eduardo Escobar S	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.250	.250	.250	.500	|
Pedro Florimon S	6	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	.167	.286	.167	.452
Aaron Hicks S	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.200	.200	.200	.400

Its too bad Willingham is injured and not at the Twins disposal but the Twins still sport a very solid lineup as Porcello have yet to face Collabelo, and Sam Fuld in his limited at bats has performed well and is a decent fill in Willinghams spot.

-----------------------

I don't like parlays really, but I also don't like taking Dog RL's. So I'm paring it with the squarest play on the board outside of the Athletics. As this is a pretty good spot for Garza to bounce back with a good game. Bonaficio and Sweeney have had success against Garza, but the rest of the lineup has yet to face him. The Cubs are also a terrible hitting team, especially away from home. While the Brewers go against Villanueva and a poor cubs bullpen.

[Emancipator]

PIT/STL FF o4 -105 (0.79 to win 0.75)
Tyler Lyons hasn't proven yet that he can make it as a starter in the big leagues and was pelted by the Pirates last year. And Liriano is off to a slow start to the year so he is due for a good game, but I would imagine he have a better shot against another team.

[Emancipator]

Rockies ML +120 (0.75 to win 0.90)

[Emancipator]

CHW/TB U4.5 -105 (0.53 to win 0.50) LOSS
Parlay +155 (0.45 to win 0.70) LOSS
Twins RL -155
Brewers ML -180
-------------------------
PIT/STL FF o4 -105 (0.79 to win 0.75) WIN
Rockies ML +120 (0.75 to win 0.90) LOSS

Combined Day Total: 1-3 (-0.95)
Overall: 30-22-1 (+8.29)
Units Risked: 38.91
ROI: 21.31%

[Emancipator]

Red Sox -1 @ +115
Red Sox RL +155 (0.32 to win 0.50)
Red Sox ML -110 (0.55 to win 0.50)
Lester is coming off of an awful game against the Yankees, but this lineup that the Blue Jays will trot out doesn't look all that intimidating. A couple guys have been able to take Lester for some dingers, though there will not be one guy in the Blue Jays lineup that hits lester above .300 or even gets on base above that percentage. The back of the order hasn't seen much of Lester and perhaps they make some noise but then again they are in the back of the order for a reason. And Dickey has knocked around in both of his games last year against the Red Sox, and though they won't have Ortiz in the lineup today, it's still the Red Sox and there are guys who have hit Dickey in the past, and the Red Sox have been putting up runs recently. It seems a sweep is very likely today and getting Lester at this price I think is a good bet.

Athletics FF -105 (0.53 to win 0.50)
Fading Mchugh here plain and simple. Yeah he had a great opener against the Mariners, but ... its the Mariners. At Safeco. The Athletics have scored 28 runs so far in this series, I'm going to take the bet that Mchugh's opener was nothing more than a fluke and that he will regress back to mean. Meanwhile Milone didn't fare that great against the Astros last year, but he is due for a good game and judging be the small sample size in past history against the Astros hitters, I think there is a decent chance he'll throw a good one today.

Angels +1 -108
Angels RL -150 (0.75 to win 0.50)
Angels ML +150 (0.33 to win 0.50)
Tanaka is solid, but I feel like Richards offers value in this spot. He has pitched well so far this year and in the small sample size he has fared well against Yankee batters. I would think more than half the time, the angels would win this game or lose by a run.

[Emancipator]

Day Total: 1-2 (-1.23)
Overall: 30-24-2 (+7.06)
Units Risked: 41.39
ROI: 17.05%

CHC/PIT U7.5 @ -115 (1.15 to win 1.00)
Cardinals RL +125 (0.80 to win 1.00)