[Stifler]

mlb chase 2013

This years mlb chase will be divided in the known 3 chase systems from last year and 3 additional pitcher chases.

Last years thread: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-b...e-systems.html


Standard chase rules:

- all systems will be played in a 4 game chase on the moneyline
- i advice to start with atleast 75 units, a bankroll of 100 units would be better
- a system loss will cost from 6 to 50 units, anything between is possible depending on the odds
- i will play the pitcher chase system for half the unit amount


betting structure:

we are playing a 4 game chase to win 1 unit.

example: (with consistent lines)
A Bet line -170 , risk 1,7u to win 1u
game lost, it moves to B bet
B Bet line -170 , risk 4,59u to win 2,7u[the lost amount on A bet + 1 unit]
game lost, it moves to C bet
C Bet line -170 , risk 12,40u to win 7,29u[the lost amount on A & B bet + 1 unit]
game lost, it moves to D bet
D Bet line -170 , risk 33,49u to win 19,69u[the lost amount on A, B & C bet + 1 unit]
if D Bet is a loser then -52,18 units overall, if D Bet wins (or any other) u win 1 unit


posted format explanation:

S3
(B Bet) Cin: Cincinnati 1,725 1,38u | Cincinnati 1,625 3,808u

• S3 - shows the system (divided in S1, S2, S3, P1, P2, P3)
• B Bet - current bet stage (in this case stage 2)
• Cin - The team to be played (fade means to play against this team)
• Cincinnati 1,725 1,38u - the red marked game shows the previous stages of the series (in this case the lost A bet)
• Cincinnati 1,625 3,808u - the bold marked game always shows the team which is going to be played on the day
• 1,625 - i will always post european lines (for american odds use an odds calculator if needed)
• 3,808u - is the same like 3.808 units, i just use a decimal point instead

[Stifler]

Systems 1 (S1): Whenever a team has a winning or losing streak of 3 or more and this streak gets broken skip the next 2 games after the streak-breaking game and follow that streak. Divide the games in home and road games (an overlapping streak doesnt count)

example: WWWL(Streak broken)WL(both games skipping) - next game start the chase (only consecutive home or road games)


Systems 2 (S2): Whenever a team has a winning or losing streak of 3 or more and this streak gets broken start the chase after the streak breaking game

example:. WWWL(Streak broken) - next game start the chase (only consecutive home or road games)


System 3 (S3): Whenever a teams starts a home-trip and the odds are < +100 in the first game start the chase for the next 4 games. Whenever a team starts a road-trip and the odds are +100 or higher in the first game start the chase and fade that team.

_____________________________

Only play the following teams on the systems:

S1:
NY Yankees (only winning streaks)
Colorado (only losing streaks)
Pittsburgh (only losing streaks)
St. louis
San Diego (only losing streaks)

S2:
Philadelphia
Arizona (only losing streaks)
Cleveland (only losing streaks)
Kansas City (only losing streaks)
Pittsburgh (only losing streaks)
LA Angels (only winning streaks)

S3:
NY Yankees
Tampa Bay
Baltimore
Boston
Toronto
Chicago White Sox
Detroit
LA Angels
Oakland
Texas
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
San Diego
San Francisco
Houston

[Stifler]

Pitcher system (P1): Whenever a pitcher has a winning or losing streak of 3 games follow that streak when the pitcher starts next. Every game in the series just will be played when the pitcher starts. For a winning streak play the team to win when the pitcher starts next, For a losing streak fade the team when the pitcher starts next. Play the RL on any team with < +100 odds and play the ml on any team with odds of +100 or more.

Pitcher system (P2): Whenever a pitcher has a winning or losing streak of 3 games follow that streak when the pitcher starts next. Every game in the series just will be played when the pitcher starts. For a winning streak play the team to win when the pitcher starts next, For a losing streak fade the team when the pitcher starts next. Play every team on the moneyline.

Pitcher system (P2): Whenever a pitcher has a winning or losing streak of 3 games follow that streak when the pitcher starts next. Every game in the series just will be played when the pitcher starts. For a winning streak play the team to win when the pitcher starts next, For a losing streak fade the team when the pitcher starts next. Play every team on the moneyline (only consecutive home or road games)


_____________________________

Only play the following pitchers on the systems:

P1:
B.Matusz
H.Kuroda
D.Price
M.Buehrle
B.Morrow
U.Jimenez
D.Fister
B.Norris
T.Hudson
K.Kendrick
D.Haren
J.Cueto
J.Karstens
J.McDonald
C.Volstad
C.Kershaw

P2:
B.Matusz
D.Price
M.Buehrle
J.Danks
U.Jimenez
J.Masterson
D.Fister
B.Chen
J.Guthrie
B.Norris
CJ Wilson
T.Hudson
G.Gonzalez
D.Haren
J.Cueto
M.Leake
A.Burnett
J. McDonald
T.Cahill
C.Volstad
Z.Greinke
C.Kershaw
J.Karstens

P3:
J.Lester
P.Hughes
H.Kuroda
C.Sabathia
U.Jimenez
M.Scherzer
D.Fister
B.Norris
T.Hanson
J.Vargas
J.Weaver
CJ Wilson
J.Saunders
J.Niese
A.Cook
R.Halladay
G.Gonzalez
T.Wood
J.Cueto
M.Latos
T.Cahill
Z.Greinke
A.Harang
M.Bumgarner
M.Cain

[Stifler]

S1,S2,S3 records (2006-2012)

http://www10.pic-upload.de/24.03.13/ttxhzcmejpar.png


P1,P2,P3 records (2010-2012)

http://www10.pic-upload.de/24.03.13/npl5z4sn67q.png

[knugen]

These numbers looking reallly good, almost too good.. Looking forward to follow you stiffler

[Tedpotter]

How did you determine the specific teams to be played for the streak system and the specific pitchers to be played for the pitching system for this year? Thanks.

[cwin32]

What differentiates the 3 pitcher systems?

[samrock67]

Checking in

Thanks for all the work you put into your systems Stif. You are an incredible human being.

[calebepley93]

This looks way to good to be true. How are you not a millionaire by now?

That said I plan on tailing. Keep up the good work!

[sportscreep1]

Great to be back again this year! System was awesome last year, and looking forward to this year! Thanks Stifler for all your hard work putting in the time to put these systems together. Can't imagine the time it took to come up with pitchers and teams, and back testing research on them! Keep up the great work and here's to a great year!

[Jellybeans]

Many thanks for the hard work!!!!!
Let's make this another profitable season.

Every year some teams undergo drastic changes, therefore can cause some very unpredictable outcomes...should those teams with drastic changes have a closer look or be avoided?
Example: Yankees will start season with lots of injuries, but will most likely finish season above .500
Not trying to change the system at all...just looking ahead...

Now lets PLAY BALL

[HowardRoark]

What differentiates the 3 pitcher systems?

yeah i also dont really get the difference between them

[Stifler]

What differentiates the 3 pitcher systems?

read carefully

P1 - only play on RL or ml >= +100
P2 - the same, just play on ml
P3 - play on ml and divide the streaks into home/road games

most will be explained as soon as we get some plays in.

This looks way to good to be true. How are you not a millionaire by now?

That said I plan on tailing. Keep up the good work!

Those numbers dont guarantee a winning season. I never expect the same outcome at all. This looks so good because i picked the best numbers. Still last year was a very profitable one, but i never expect to win 100 units on every season. Making profit is hard enough.
Especially those pitching records wont hold up i think. Cant go undefeated every season.

On a sidenote this is just the 2nd season im playing the system.

[TheDarkKnight01]

Great stuff here with some amazing results. Good luck this season, looking forward to your plays!

The time and work you put into your systems is truly astonishing.

[calebepley93]

read carefully

P1 - only play on RL or ml >= +100
P2 - the same, just play on ml
P3 - play on ml and divide the streaks into home/road games

most will be explained as soon as we get some plays in.



Those numbers dont guarantee a winning season. I never expect the same outcome at all. This looks so good because i picked the best numbers. Still last year was a very profitable one, but i never expect to win 100 units on every season. Making profit is hard enough.
Especially those pitching records wont hold up i think. Cant go undefeated every season.

On a sidenote this is just the 2nd season im playing the system.

So you didn't play the system that you back tested in this thread last year? And that's why your profit was only 100+ units?

And yes it's true that past results don't affect or guarantee future outcomes. But it's called gambling for a reason and with geniuses like you some of us might actually turn a profit!

[dalogester]

This looks way to good to be true. How are you not a millionaire by now?

That said I plan on tailing. Keep up the good work!

Check out his NBA system this year. its been really great!

[Antoniosdiaz1]

Hey stifler bol this season!
one question, the records on your pics are differents of your last thread records, why is that?
i think last season winnins were 130 units aprox, and you have200+in the pic

[w@lt]

Those numbers dont guarantee a winning season. I never expect the same outcome at all. This looks so good because i picked the best numbers. Still last year was a very profitable one, but i never expect to win 100 units on every season. Making profit is hard enough.
Especially those pitching records wont hold up i think. Cant go undefeated every season.

If I'm reading the records from the other thread correctly, the least you made in a season is 117 units, yes?

Records:

2006: 309-5 (+ 196,53 units)
2007: 337-9 (+ 127,63 units)
2008: 327-8 (+ 117,16 units)
2009: 348-2 (+ 315,54 units)
2010: 335-5 (+ 184,09 units)
2011: 334-6 (+ 222,65 units)
2012: W 295 | L 9 (+129,084 units

[Grinder12000]

I'm in! best sport for gambling because the juice is FREAKISHLY low. Plus the higher the line the less juice you pay!

And the wonderful thing is that we play dogs so probably not many 40 unit games!

• S3 - shows the system (divided in S1, S2, S3, P1, P2, P3)
• B Bet - current bet stage (in this case stage 2)
• Cin - The team to be played (fade means to play against this team)
• Cincinnati 1,725 1,38u - the red marked game shows the previous stages of the series (in this case the lost A bet)
• Cincinnati 1,625 3,808u - the bold marked game always shows the team which is going to be played on the day
• 1,625 - i will always post european lines (for american odds use an odds calculator if needed)
• 3,808u - is the same like 3.808 units, i just use a decimal point instead

BASICALLY - just like the NBA system (for those that were in The Chase - NBA)

[CrazyCarl]

If I'm reading the records from the other thread correctly, the least you made in a season is 117 units, yes?

Records:

2006: 309-5 (+ 196,53 units)
2007: 337-9 (+ 127,63 units)
2008: 327-8 (+ 117,16 units)
2009: 348-2 (+ 315,54 units)
2010: 335-5 (+ 184,09 units)
2011: 334-6 (+ 222,65 units)
2012: W 295 | L 9 (+129,084 units

The numbers there are the ones that he got to manipulate and filter and pick out the teams he wanted for the purpose of making the system work, and after the fact.

Last year is the first year actually using it.

[Stifler]

Hey stifler bol this season!
one question, the records on your pics are differents of your last thread records, why is that?
i think last season winnins were 130 units aprox, and you have200+in the pic

Teams changed + 1 more year. So the records were adapted to that.

If I'm reading the records from the other thread correctly, the least you made in a season is 117 units, yes?

same as above, those records were for the teams i played last year. A few teams changed (not much), but that had an impact on the new records.

I'm in! best sport for gambling because the juice is FREAKISHLY low. Plus the higher the line the less juice you pay!

And the wonderful thing is that we play dogs so probably not many 40 unit games!

this varies based on the odds ur playing within a series. 4x -200 odds will be very juicy. Lost series backtested cost from 6 to 50 units. always depends on the lines.

[Grinder12000]

So Stifler. 6 systems. Got some time on your hands? May I suggest a number system like Wallco? Going to be tough looking back searching for what games go with what chases.

Just sayin.

[808bases]

Whew That is a ton of work you put in Stifler thanks a bundle. Looking forward to a successful season!

[iseven]

this is wat i been waiting for!

[Lakey]

Stifler, for the pitchers streaks does the streak need to be broken to start the chase or does it start straight away.

ie. Price goes WWW do I play the win game 4 or do I wait for a loss to start a chase?

Also, for a streak I assume it is referred to the teams result when the pitcher starts rather than whether the pitcher is awarded a win/loss/no result?

[sportscreep1]

I'm in! best sport for gambling because the juice is FREAKISHLY low. Plus the higher the line the less juice you pay!

And the wonderful thing is that we play dogs so probably not many 40 unit games!



BASICALLY - just like the NBA system (for those that were in The Chase - NBA)

Think twice last year, one series with Detroit and one with Yankees, they were playing "bad" teams, juice on a couple of the games in the series, (that went to 'd' and 'c' respectively) were -280 and -300. Verlander and Sabathia were starters, you get risking A LOT for that 1 unit win. They worked out, system last year was very hot to start, which helped eat some losses later on in season. Look forward to profitable season this year again!

[Stifler]

Stifler, for the pitchers streaks does the streak need to be broken to start the chase or does it start straight away.

ie. Price goes WWW do I play the win game 4 or do I wait for a loss to start a chase?

Also, for a streak I assume it is referred to the teams result when the pitcher starts rather than whether the pitcher is awarded a win/loss/no result?

start the chase right after the streak, for ur example the game after WWW

As always covers.com will be used to identify if we have a streak or not.

[DustyDiamond]

checking in

[Grinder12000]

juice on a couple of the games in the series

What I meant was juice that we need to pay the books. In the NBA or the NFL paying -110 for a game you are paying 4.76% over the implied odds. But in baseball it's much easier to make money because you're paying much less.

The average line in baseball is -142 / +132 so the amount you are paying to play is only 1.78% over the implied odds.

-142 you need to win 58.7%
+132 you need to win 43.1%

58.7+43.1=101.8 - 100 = juice of 1.8%
In fact the higher the line the less you have to pay the bookie to play

-300 = 75%
+280 = 26.3% (they raised it to a 20 cent line) your juice is now only 1.3% even with a 20 cent line.

you get risking A LOT for that 1 unit win

bad way to think about it - I never ever do because you already have your money lost - you can't lose it twice. Once you win or lose it's over. Yea you bet more but it's one game you are playing not the last two also.

If you think of it like that you will go nuts and it's counter productive. Play one game at a time with different size bets. If you think of all three then you are only worrying about NOT losing which is wrong for sports betting.

Seriously - the only people I know that worry about completing a chase are the ones that are worried about losing. if you are sports wagering you only think about winning.

[OFS]

[quote=Grinder12000;18218112]

What I meant was juice that we need to pay the books. In the NBA or the NFL paying -110 for a game you are paying 4.76% over the implied odds. But in baseball it's much easier to make money because you're paying much less.

The average line in baseball is -142 / +132 so the amount you are paying to play is only 1.78% over the implied odds.

-142 you need to win 58.7%
+132 you need to win 43.1%

58.7+43.1=101.8 - 100 = juice of 1.8%
In fact the higher the line the less you have to pay the bookie to play

-300 = 75%
+280 = 26.3% (they raised it to a 20 cent line) your juice is now only 1.3% even with a 20 cent line.


Joe Peta would be proud Grinder.

[Grinder12000]

Joe Peta would be proud Grinder.

And I need to thank Joe Peta as I'm following his advice a little. Good stuff. I could read numbers all day!

[BigBanker]

checking in

[BigBanker]

which sportsbook do you use stifler or if anyone else knows? Thanks in advance

[Stifler]

which sportsbook do you use stifler or if anyone else knows? Thanks in advance

depends on ur location. Im going with pinnacle...

[BigBanker]

Yeah I am on pinnacle too cool. Only joined this forum and pretty new to tailing someone but I will follow you and hope for the best glgl.