Originally Posted by
cocknocker
Well a weekend at the racetrack has the ears ringing still, but I'm back to pry money from the books this week in small ball, and man do I see some really awkward numbers for series bets this week.
You just can't get in the way of a charging bull. It is not a pleasant experience to get forklifted up into the air with no idea where you will land. Such is the case this Tuesday when the Rangers will be getting an excellent number (+270) for the series against the mighty but inflated in value Yankees. I am assuming that this is a line that the books are offering based upon the public's perception of the Yanks. This year it is deservedly so. But Yankee backers have not made much in the way of profit wagering on this team this year due to the economics invlolved when wagering on the Bombers.
The Rangers pitching staff boasts a red hot 1.412 whip with 15 strikeouts against only 6 walks, and get this only 8 runs alloawed 7 earned. The Yankees counter with a very pedestrian 1.728 whip to go along with the good 18 strikeouts and only 4 bases on balls, and the bad 20 runs allowed, 17 earned in only 16.2 innings.
As far as production from the hitting is concerned, the Rangers are in a bit of a funk, but playing against a staff that has a combined 6-7 record against should help matters some. Matter of fact, the Rangers play the Yanks pretty much straight up with a 4-6 overall mark the past 10 games and a 5-5 mark in games played in Gotham.
Millwood gets the go in game one of the series, and he absloutely loves pitching in Gotham as he has a 2-0 record there in his last two visits. A peek at the work he puts in when facing the pinstripes can be taken advantage of as he is 5-0 for the under against them. Don't stop the music.. Holland is very capable of beating Pettitte, who is 1-2 at home vs the Rangers and 2-3 overall in his last 5. Burnett will dismantle the Rangers on the last game of the series as he has incredible numbers against them to go along with a 4-1 overall record and 1-0 at home vs the Rangers.
Rangers+270 for series 1 unit Win
Rangers+1.5 -115 Game 1 1 unit Win
Rangers/Yankees under 9.5 -105 Game 1 1 unit Loss
Rangers+1.5 -135 Loss
Rangers+190 Win
Series record 3-2-0 Win +3.2 units
One peek at the success of the Dodgers against the Rockies says don't stop the streak. They have beaten the Rocks 8 out of the last 10 times they have faced each other overall, and also 7 out of the last 10 games in Colorado. No home field advantage there. The Dodgers have a few pitching problems but not the guys facing the Rockies (Kershaw, Weaver, Wolf) who boast a sterling 7-4 record combined. The Rockies Cook is on the shelf but Hammel and DeLaRosa are a combined 0-6 versus the Dodgers. No patching of a staff is gonna help that figure. Many goes deep twice in the series the Dodgers pad their lead by beating the piss out of the dog nipping at their heels.
Dodgers-105 for series vs Rockies 1 unit Win
Dodgers-115 Game 1 1 unit Loss
Dodgers/Rockies over 9 -120 Game 1 1 unit Push
Dodgers+122 2 units Game 2 Win
Dodgers+125 Game 3 Win
Record 3-1-1 Win +2.37 units
This is not really a series per se, but more of a continuation of what has already been going on and simply not interrupting the flow. The Braves and Padres for whatever reason always seem to go under in games at Atlanta. Turner Field has the 25th ranked park factor, and San Diego plays in the worst park factor in the league (Petco). The Padres were built to play small ball, and the Braves were built to stop the other team from scoring. The Padres lack of power produces unders in the park that have low factors to begin with. The beat goes on. These teams have a sterling 9-0-1 record for the under in games played at Turner Field. That ought to be good enough to get me at least two of them in the next couple of days. The Braves don't f*ck around with the Padres, and have identical 8-2 records overall and at home against them. The price for the series was too steep for my taste (-370), so more than likely, I will pick my spots and play the Braves on the runline since obviously they will be -170 or more each game homies. I just can't pay that kind of vigorish for any sport.
Padres/Braves Under the Total for each game of the series
Padres/Braves under 8 -110 Game 1 1 unit Win
Padres/Braves under 8.5 +100 game 2 Loss
Padres/Braves under 8 -110 Pending
Record 1-1-0
This is the first and LAST time I pay for this much juice in a game.
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