08-02-09, 07:14 PM
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#1
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The Padres told the Rangers of Astros That Will Light up the Sky 8/3/09 to 8/6/09
I am in my backyard watering my grass and watching my dog tear shit up as usual. I see an airplane that I am quite sure was carrying the Giants to Texas where they will take on the Astros in a tilt. The A's just stayed home, but it doesn't matter. I still have my eyes on these teams pretty well. Whatever. Here we go f*ckers.
I have some hum-dingers in store for ya, and it ain't what you want to hear. I'm gonna go against all logical thinking and take the Padres+160 as a dog against the Braves in their series starting on Monday, if for no other reason than I think that they have a pitching advantage. Latos is lights out and kawakami got rocked in his last outing against the Fish giving up 6 earned runs with 7 hits and walked 3 and K'd 4. It was the first time in 5 starts that he struck out more than he walked and this guy hasn't gone past 6 innings since whenever.
The Padres are hot and are on a current streak of 5 wins with one loss. I am not going to be the one to get in the way of that. You either play the Padres in this series or else get the f*ck out of the way! The teams have a history dominated by the Braves so as I said this is a series of current play, not historical play. What is funny about the matchup in this series is that San Diego's starters are 1-0 vs the Braves and the Braves starters are 4-1. The winning percentage is on the side of the Padres with the unkown factor thrown in!
Padres+160 for series vs Braves
Padres+100 Game 1
Padres/Braves under 7.5
Padres-1.5+210 RRL
Record 0-0-0
The Texas Rangers are going nowhere and neither are the A's. The A's have the look and smell of a team that is toast. The fire sale of the best players on their team has the clubhouse flat. The rangers could care less as they know that they have to beat the A's in order to stay out of the cellar in the division. I like Nippert in the oh so precious opener with his 2-0 record against the A's with Anderson's 0-2 record vs the Rangers. Gio Gonzalez is a trainwreck waiting to happen, so i'll roll with Holland in game 2. As stated, the A's have the look of a team that is about to give up on the season in order to get good draft positioning since the Cabrera trade. It was totally unexpected. And Giambi is tankin it too.
The Rangers starters have a collective 5-5 record vs A's starters who are 3-4 agianst Texas.
Rangers+110 for Series vs A's
Rangers+110 Game 1
Rangers-1.5 +170 RRL
Record 0-0-0
And now for the ugly side of wagering. The Giants arrive in Houston full of themseves from getting live coverage from CK and disposing of the Phils 3 games to 1 as I prescribed. Houston had their issues with the Red Birds but who won't. Hell that's one of my teams! No problem. They have had the Giants number winning 7 of the last 10 contests between these teams overall and 6 out of the last 10 at home. The public probably doesn't understand why the Astros are favored in this matchup given the Giants spurt of late. But I do. Give me the 'Stros. They win game one because Hampton is 4-1 overall his last 5 vs the Giants, and Cain is 1-1. Hampton gets the chance to redeem himself for his awful implosion against the Cubbos. The Giants are 8-12 in their last 20 road games so the 'Stros have a chance, especially since they won't have to face Lincecum.
Astros-130 for Series vs Giants
Astros+125 Game 1 vs Giants
Astros-1.5 +245 RRL
Record 0-0-0
Last edited by cocknocker; 08-03-09 at 01:43 AM.
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08-02-09, 07:18 PM
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#2
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Now for the other plays
Cubs/Reds over 8.5 HEAVY
Dodgers-1.5+100 (Kershaw 2-0 Vs Brews, Parra 0-2 vs Dodgers)
Last edited by cocknocker; 08-03-09 at 01:40 AM.
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08-02-09, 09:56 PM
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#3
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CK,
Gallardo is not the starter against the dodgers, tomorrow. Parra is...
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08-02-09, 10:38 PM
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#4
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Correction made JayRow, but the record is still 0-2
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08-02-09, 10:45 PM
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#5
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Hampton over Cain???? Don't see that happening, but it is baseball anything is possible.
Go Tigers
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08-03-09, 12:02 AM
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#6
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Monday 8/3-
(2x) dbacks -1.5/-110
(3x) giants -140 (A3)
(1x) padres +1.5/-150 (A2)
(3x) dodgers -1.5/+100 (A3)
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08-03-09, 12:42 AM
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#7
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How did you do in your last three series bets? You never totaled them at the end?
Are you chasing wins here too when your team loses the first game? Or just try win 2 out of 3 on the ml and one on the RL and the series. I'm confused.
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08-03-09, 12:57 AM
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#8
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Liking that over.
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08-03-09, 01:47 AM
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#9
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Hampton over Cain baybee! This is an underground nasty play
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08-03-09, 01:50 AM
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#10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FreeFall
How did you do in your last three series bets? You never totaled them at the end?
Are you chasing wins here too when your team loses the first game? Or just try win 2 out of 3 on the ml and one on the RL and the series. I'm confused.
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The math is simple. I want to win 2 ml bets and a rl bet and also get my series win
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08-03-09, 01:59 AM
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#11
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I will be answering my PM's in the morning gentlemen. I have a list a mile long. Please be patient with me everyone.
I am dropping the Dodgers and Tigers RL plays as I can't pay negative money for a runline play. The Dodgers play looks pretty good still and I may end up taking it if it stays in the black. I anticipate that it will turn into negative money though. I have enough plays within my series bets to happily work within those plays for the first part of the week.
Looking ahead to the series that start on Tuesday I like KC for their series against Seattle, and I am gonna take a stab at the twins as their pitchers are 10-5 collectively against the Wahoos and the Wahoos starters are 4-7 against the Twinks. They are coming off of a rare home sweep at the hands of the Angels. I suspect that they will come out swinging and beat down my beloved Wahoos during the week
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08-03-09, 02:28 AM
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#12
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i like cain and the under.
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08-03-09, 02:34 AM
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#13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pimike
Hampton over Cain???? Don't see that happening, but it is baseball anything is possible.
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Cocknocker is off his rocker.
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08-03-09, 02:36 AM
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#14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cocknocker
The math is simple. I want to win 2 ml bets and a rl bet and also get my series win
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how did you end up last week with the series bets?
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08-03-09, 02:58 AM
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#15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FreeFall
how did you end up last week with the series bets?
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Give me time cap tomorrow's action. I just made time to update my old thread. If you are that interested in the series bets however, I could use a scorekeeper for that purpose. I'm all about free enterprise. The job is yours if you wish.
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08-03-09, 03:43 AM
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#16
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I already answered your question Xpert in the most appropriate manner that I could via PM. Now if anyone is intersted I would like to get back to my final peek at the numbers before I turn in.
Consensus
San Diego 36% driving the line down a bit which is good
Texas 69% driving the line down from +117 to +110 so the line is doing what it should
Astros 16% driving the line (Giants) down from -138 to -132
To early yet for the true effect of the totals, but as of right now
Cubs/Reds over 8.5 55%
Atlanta/San Diego under 7.5 45%
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08-03-09, 05:21 AM
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#17
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I went big on the Cubs/Reds over tonight. Hope to see results tomorrow.
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08-03-09, 11:01 AM
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#18
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This is my first post on SBR. I just wanted to say thanks to cockknocker and everyone else on his threads who contribute to the success. I find it annoying someone would come into his thread questioning him. I always looked at his football threads, usually dont bet baseball but the last couple of weeks have been tailing him. He usually updates his record for a series in that thread, as he did last week. He picked 2 out of 3 correctly last week, including picking the Giants over the Phillies. I can't say many others would have the balls to publicly pick that. I believe he finished his series bets at +2.51 units. The twins laid a huge egg and didn't get a win, driving the profits down. I just wanted to vouch and say as someone who has been following his series bets, they have been profitable. So Xpertcapper and anyone else questioning that, I hope this clears things up.
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08-03-09, 11:33 AM
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#19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cocknocker
I will be answering my PM's in the morning gentlemen. I have a list a mile long. Please be patient with me everyone.
I am dropping the Dodgers and Tigers RL plays as I can't pay negative money for a runline play. The Dodgers play looks pretty good still and I may end up taking it if it stays in the black. I anticipate that it will turn into negative money though. I have enough plays within my series bets to happily work within those plays for the first part of the week.
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Alright playa.......our Houston line is looking good...
HOU 17% +130 to +119 (11 the right way)
Dodgers line is doing well
LAD 80% -201 to -218 (17 the right way) get that Runline action.
BUT CHECK OUT THE MOVEMENT ON THE O'S!!
BAL 22% +250 to +226 (24 in favor of the O's) WTF!!!
Does this not warrant a crumb play of the day??? I personally would never think to pick the O's over DET tonight......but it seems like something you would do....and you would win that mutha too!!! lol
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08-03-09, 11:37 AM
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#20
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Good morning ladies and gentlemen,
A quick peek at the action that went on overnight
Reds/Cubs over 8.5 38% of bettors are on the over so that one's coming along good
Padres/Bravos under 7.5 60% are with me, but the amount of bets on the total are still low
Astros 17% of bettors line was +125 when I played it last night, +113 this morning (Wonderful)
Texas 72% and the line went from Oak-125 to -117, line is doing what it's supposed to do
Padres 51% and the line went from Atlanta-122 to -116 on average, Good movment
So all in all evertyhing is starting off well with regard to movement. I will be in the saddle this week but I will be leaving for our annual roadie Saturday morning with a destination of Milwaukee Wisconsin of all places. The Missus has a few relatives who moved there following their job a couple of years back. I have some idiot friends who stay in Omaha, Nebraska too so this will be an eventful trip. By the time I get back pre-season NFL will be in full swing, so I will have lots to catchup on in terms of getting my sneak peek at the teams. The wonderful part about it is that when we stop at the cheap roadside motels I can watch the games while the family gets in the swimming pool.
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08-03-09, 11:40 AM
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#21
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kc is a steal today!
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08-03-09, 11:44 AM
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#22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLemonDropKid
Alright playa.......our Houston line is looking good...
HOU 17% +130 to +119 (11 the right way)
Dodgers line is doing well
LAD 80% -201 to -218 (17 the right way) get that Runline action.
BUT CHECK OUT THE MOVEMENT ON THE O'S!!
BAL 22% +250 to +226 (24 in favor of the O's) WTF!!!
Does this not warrant a crumb play of the day??? I personally would never think to pick the O's over DET tonight......but it seems like something you would do....and you would win that mutha too!!! lol
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LDK in a situation like that you have to look at the pitchers and see if the O's guy has a decent overall record vs the Tigers, and the answer is no. Tillman is a project in the works, and he will not be able to hold the Tigers bats from bouncing baseballs off of the stadium's walls. Let's leave that game to the professionals. Verlander is 5-0 vs the O's on streak, so you either play Verlander-1.5 or get the f*ck out of the way like I did. I can't play a RL at negative money. That is monetary suicide in the long run. The only thing that I could offer is if you honestly feel that the O's have a shot at winning, shorten you bet to microscopic proprtions and play the O's-1.5+340
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08-03-09, 11:49 AM
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#23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoebox
kc is a steal today!
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They were a steal yesterday.
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08-03-09, 11:51 AM
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#24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoebox
kc is a steal today!
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How? Greinke has historically had problems with the Rays. The appropriate play for that game looks to be the first five over 4 as all but one game between them this year has gone under. Just wonder if the Royals bats will get to Kaz early though, and the vice versa for Greinke. With hardly anyone playing the over, I think it's worth a stab at +105 FF over 4. Why not take advantage of both teams' issues on the bump and at the plate? This is the last game of this series and no one wants to go home a loser! Bust out the whoppin' sticks.
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08-03-09, 11:52 AM
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#25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pimike
They were a steal yesterday.
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touche'
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08-03-09, 12:01 PM
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#26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cocknocker
LDK in a situation like that you have to look at the pitchers and see if the O's guy has a decent overall record vs the Tigers, and the answer is no. Tillman is a project in the works, and he will not be able to hold the Tigers bats from bouncing baseballs off of the stadium's walls. Let's leave that game to the professionals. Verlander is 5-0 vs the O's on streak, so you either play Verlander-1.5 or get the f*ck out of the way like I did. I can't play a RL at negative money. That is monetary suicide in the long run. The only thing that I could offer is if you honestly feel that the O's have a shot at winning, shorten you bet to microscopic proprtions and play the O's-1.5+340
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Point taken.......and when you get the f*ck out of the way, I'm right there behind you......ducking behind you like a little bitch.....lol!! I'm off of it. Thank you sir.
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08-03-09, 12:07 PM
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#27
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Gametime juice box heads
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08-03-09, 12:24 PM
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#28
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bases loaded for TB... a HR and the over for the first five looks like the right call here...anyway
GL today guys
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08-03-09, 12:29 PM
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#29
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well...no HR butr a single and TB leads it 2-0...
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08-03-09, 12:29 PM
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#30
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CK,
Whats up man...enjoy your work on here! I jumped back into the bases yesterday with the Reds/Rox Over 8.5! Got more than a little lucky w/Votto homering w/2 out/none on Bottom 8 to make it 4-4 and win the bet! As for tonites Over 8.5! Harang is fckn awful (now 11 wins 29 losses last 2 yrs after being 16-6 in 2007) but my Reds offense is so bad that we'll be lucky to get 2-3 runs tonite! Other than a fluke Harang 3 run HR...Wells shut down the Reds not long ago in Wrigley! To make things worse Rolen got plunked in the head...might be out....sorry a$$ Willy Taveras might be back in? The Cubs may get 10 themselves but if thats the case then the Cubs or Cubs RL is the play? Having 15-20K Cubs fans in Cincy might fire up the Reds a little..maybe 7-4 final?
I like Texas too...hit Toronto yesterday vs Oak! I agree that the A's are mailing it in just like the Reds! Kinsler destroys lefties so it hurts that he's on the DL but Texas is still playing hard! Holland has a super arm so that might be the easiest play of this series! I like the Nats/Bucs Over 9 tonite as well!
GL..appreciate your hard work!
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08-03-09, 12:54 PM
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#31
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Greink-o is about to give me my first five inning over in a few batters
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08-03-09, 12:55 PM
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#32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cocknocker
Greink-o is about to give me my first five inning over in a few batters
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yeah my bets looking toast..
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08-03-09, 12:55 PM
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#33
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Thanks CK, nice way to start the day!
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08-03-09, 12:57 PM
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#34
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Rays/Royals first five innings over 4 as prescribed!
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08-03-09, 01:04 PM
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#35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cocknocker
Good morning ladies and gentlemen,
A quick peek at the action that went on overnight
Reds/Cubs over 8.5 38% of bettors are on the over so that one's coming along good
Padres/Bravos under 7.5 60% are with me, but the amount of bets on the total are still low
Astros 17% of bettors line was +125 when I played it last night, +113 this morning (Wonderful)
Texas 72% and the line went from Oak-125 to -117, line is doing what it's supposed to do
Padres 51% and the line went from Atlanta-122 to -116 on average, Good movment
So all in all evertyhing is starting off well with regard to movement. I will be in the saddle this week but I will be leaving for our annual roadie Saturday morning with a destination of Milwaukee Wisconsin of all places. The Missus has a few relatives who moved there following their job a couple of years back. I have some idiot friends who stay in Omaha, Nebraska too so this will be an eventful trip. By the time I get back pre-season NFL will be in full swing, so I will have lots to catchup on in terms of getting my sneak peek at the teams. The wonderful part about it is that when we stop at the cheap roadside motels I can watch the games while the family gets in the swimming pool.
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CK, let's get that NFL thread started with Sexymit. Whole lotta info to post!
Nice call on the over!
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