07-20-09, 01:22 AM
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#1
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Leans for Metropolitan Beers & Cubs Festival
Keeping up with the format suggested by the public, I am showing my series wagers as well as daily leans on one thread. I also want to thank you twits out there, that is some funny shit. Without much more delay here's the skinny on how I am approaching the wagers for the first half of the week.
Clearly the Brewers have the Pirates number. They are 12-8 in the last 20 games in Pittsburgh and an amazing 19-1 straight up overall. Now that is something that can't be ignored. A series wager on the Brewers as usual. You know the drill. The Pirates have momentum heading into this series dispatching of the Giants in their three game series. The Pirates have won two series in a row only 3 times this year, so the odds are definitely out of their favor when you combine their futility against the Brewers for whatever reason, have their number. The wind is blowing out and it will be a home run derby. In a sick and perverted manner, I am also playing the Piratets as a JM play until they win one of these games on a seperate book. How sick is that? Hopefully they win game 1, and then the festivities can begin.
Brewers-110 for series vs Pirates
Well anyone who knows me knows that I love wagering against the Nats for the series. The Mets are hurtin' and can't afford to overlook this team anymore as in years' past. The Mets futility will make this line much more manageable. This is an autoplay as usual. The Mets are 14-6 straight up overall and 14-6 in games in DC. That's not bad. Alls that they will need is one of the games. If Santana is pitching a -1.5 play may be in order, but if that is the case, I may just let him win the game and take the series win without risking a RL play on them. The Nats bats are working better these days. This is th eonly one of these that I will play a team in the first game. If anyone knows the nuances about pitching at this stadium it's Livan
Mets+120 for series vs Nats
The Marlins are reeling now for lack of a better phrase, and they are not playing so hot. They were swept away at home by the Phils in a series that wasn't close. Their last game was a shutout loss. They automitically become a good play in spite of that. Both teams have hurting bats, but at least the Marlins have more potential to bust out the whoppin' sticks than the Padres, who are on a youth movement. The Marlins are actively chasing the playoffs. This shapes up to be a series of two teams going in opposite directions. I highly doubt that i will play Vandenhurk in game 1 however. If he gets the win, then great! The Marlins are 11-9 straight up against the Padres and 11-9 straight up in games in San Diego. It will be a tough hard fought series, but I think the Fish can pick up two wins.
Marlins- 135 for series vs Padres
Last edited by cocknocker; 07-20-09 at 11:33 AM.
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07-20-09, 01:28 AM
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#2
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Leans for Monday
Astros-105 Moehler and the Astros are hot, the Red Birds are not
Astros-1.5+170
Pale Hose+100 False favorite in this one
Phillies/Cubs over 9.5
Last edited by cocknocker; 07-20-09 at 11:38 AM.
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07-20-09, 01:40 AM
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#3
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Hey CK forget about my PM youve answered my question here.
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07-20-09, 01:51 AM
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#4
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I like the Cubs in their series with the Phils, the only drawback will be the bullpens, where the Cubs are horrid, and the Phils have put it together. The 7-13 mark by the Cubs in games in Philly stopped me from piling on a series bet. However, that may all change in the morning when i see the lines. With the Phillies win streak, the number may be ignorant and make me jump. The Cubs have quietly been just as hot. If the Cubs are more than +130, then I will have to include them in my playbook this week
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07-20-09, 01:53 AM
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#5
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you check my pm ck?
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07-20-09, 01:56 AM
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#6
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What do you think about Minnesota Twins ? Good play ?
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07-20-09, 02:24 AM
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#7
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Okay CK,
It's time to finally once and for all do things right. Enough picking and choosing certain games to bet on that you suggest with too small of a bankroll to actually do things right. I'm just a poor college kid, but I'm going to put $400 in an account (large amount for me) and just bet every game you put under WNBA or MLB or CFL or NFL or what not (i missed out on your 5-0 wnba current streak). If i deposit 400, what is a Unit that you would suggest to use for all your bets unless otherwise noted as heavy (which i will bet 2 units).
Thanks,
JR
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07-20-09, 02:25 AM
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#8
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No Bruno87, you're not allowed to wager against my hometown team! Whenever I am asked this question I will always respond A's. So I am the wrong person to ask this question...
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07-20-09, 02:27 AM
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#9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JayRow
Okay CK,
It's time to finally once and for all do things right. Enough picking and choosing certain games to bet on that you suggest with too small of a bankroll to actually do things right. I'm just a poor college kid, but I'm going to put $400 in an account (large amount for me) and just bet every game you put under WNBA or MLB or CFL or NFL or what not (i missed out on your 5-0 wnba current streak). If i deposit 400, what is a Unit that you would suggest to use for all your bets unless otherwise noted as heavy (which i will bet 2 units).
Thanks,
JR
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$400.00 means no wager over $50.00 to start off, and $40.00 would be ideal. Do not wager anything parlayed.
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07-20-09, 02:27 AM
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#10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoebox
you check my pm ck?
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Yes I did!
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07-20-09, 02:32 AM
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#11
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Okay, CK, I really need to turn this into some cash so I'm tailing you 100%. Do what you do my man.
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07-20-09, 11:24 AM
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#12
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I am gonna watch the first game of all of my series bets. I really like the chances of the Cubs taking two from the Phillies. The Phils haven't faced a team this hot while on their streak. Let's go Cubs. I went to place my wager for the Marlins and it is now to rich for my blood at -140. I would have to see a record such as the Mets record against the Nats to place -140. The Marlins are not hot enough for -140 even if it is the Padres...For chalk lovers it is a good bet though. I just can't do it. Florida's slide may not be complete..
Marlins-140 series vs Padres NO PLAY
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07-20-09, 11:28 AM
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#13
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You know I also played the 3 JM's today as well. But I played the O's split between the runline and straight as my own spin.
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07-20-09, 11:29 AM
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#14
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So now this is only the Metropolitan Beer and Cubs Festival!
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07-20-09, 11:39 AM
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#15
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I couldn't think of a way to add the Astros into the name.... so those are the teams that I'll be selecting games from the first part of this week. I may dip out of these games if I find something juicy. I think the new format makes it a lot easier for those interested to see how I wager on baseball. It was a good suggestion. As always good luck gentlemen
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07-20-09, 12:51 PM
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#16
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CK, you think the Reds have enough value tonight? Jason Schmidt is pitching his first game in almost two years and he's getting a lot of respect. Well, the Dodgers and their play at home are getting respect. Dodgers are not hitting at all though and Owings is another bat in that Reds lineup. I know you typically like to fade guys that just came off the DL and it's not like Schmidt was dominating in his minor league starts at AAA (4.18 ERA, 1.30 WHIP).
Last edited by The_Kid; 07-20-09 at 12:55 PM.
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07-20-09, 12:59 PM
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#17
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For Tuesday I like
Angels-1.5 This is a mismatch of monumental proportions
Rangers The kid Hunter is the real deal
Wahoos (Cliff Lee)
Astros Wandy's gonna get it done and cash the series ticket but not with my money on this game, lol! Too much viggo for my liking
W/B watching the lines for the Cubs. The Mets and Brewers are more of auto plays and dont' really deserve that much attention. I am not concerned with the outcome of the Mets/Nats series. I will get it back in the Nats next series anyway. The Brewers are an auto play because of their record of dominance over the Pirates. But since the Pirates are a JM play, there may be a reversal of fortune at some point for cryin' out loud. This is more of a percentages play. So this series doesn't really deserve too muc attention either. The Brewers are gonna do it or they aren't. I do however like the Astros in their matchup with the Red Birds, so whatever...I think the teams that I may end up playing more will be the Cubs and the Astros, the series that I actually handicapped.
Last edited by cocknocker; 07-20-09 at 05:54 PM.
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07-20-09, 02:18 PM
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#18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Kid
CK, you think the Reds have enough value tonight? Jason Schmidt is pitching his first game in almost two years and he's getting a lot of respect. Well, the Dodgers and their play at home are getting respect. Dodgers are not hitting at all though and Owings is another bat in that Reds lineup. I know you typically like to fade guys that just came off the DL and it's not like Schmidt was dominating in his minor league starts at AAA (4.18 ERA, 1.30 WHIP).
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Schmidt is a must fade with this being his first start off the farm. The vig alone is worth a try. How do you come back and be worth that much in your first game?
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07-20-09, 02:40 PM
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#19
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CK you are killing it today man. joba/yanks backers congrats yesterday. i hit 2 different 3 team parlays thanks to comebacks by dodgers and rays. today my straight up picks will be
sox (both kinds red and black)
twinkies
rockies
and your upset special giants +145
best of luck today!
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07-20-09, 02:42 PM
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#20
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CK/The Kid I would recommend just skipping out on the reds game, too many unknowns take what is good up on the board. my model has dodgers but i had to use some career/opponent numbers for schmidt. the reds graded out very very low though for me and are not worth it in my opinion.
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07-20-09, 02:43 PM
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#21
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Good Lean CK I like it. 
Thinking a parlay with Atl ML 
Will decide at 6pm thats when I book my plays 
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07-20-09, 02:44 PM
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#22
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2 other words of advice. never stay @ the sahara in vegas the rooms are like a motel 6 in iowa....also stay away from the fremont street hookers.
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07-20-09, 02:52 PM
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#23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by solobass
2 other words of advice. never stay @ the sahara in vegas the rooms are like a motel 6 in iowa....also stay away from the fremont street hookers.
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Not sure if you are talking to me but I used to live on vegas drive next to sigfied and roy. We moved to canada but will be moving back as the wife is from nevada. I have been meaning to get to the ranch in the dessert 
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07-20-09, 02:55 PM
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#24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cocknocker
For Tuesday I like
Angels-1.5 This is a mismatch of monumental proportions
Rangers The kid Hunter is the real deal
Wahoos (Cliff Lee)
Astros Wandy's gonna get it done and cash the series ticket
W/B watching the lines for the Cubs. The Mets and Brewers are more of auto plays and dont' really deserve that much attention. I am not concerned with the outcome of the Mets/Nats series. I will get it back in the Nats next series anyway. The Brewers are an auto play because of their record of dominance over the Pirates. But since the Pirates are a JM play, there may be a reversal of fortune at some point for cryin' out loud. This is more of a percentages play. So this series doesn't really deserve too muc attention either. The Brewers are gonna do it or they aren't. I do however like the Astros in their matchup with the Red Birds, so whatever...I think the teams that I may end up playing more will be the Cubs and the Astros, the series that I actually handicapped.
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Hey CK.....if LAA is a mismatch of monumental proportions tomorrow, could it be a mismatch of just really big proportions today? Some other leans I would like your thoughts on....
Today's Games, not Series....
Angels
Braves
Rockies
Marlins
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07-20-09, 02:59 PM
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#25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by solobass
CK you are killing it today man. joba/yanks backers congrats yesterday. i hit 2 different 3 team parlays thanks to comebacks by dodgers and rays. today my straight up picks will be
sox (both kinds red and black)
twinkies
rockies
and your upset special giants +145
best of luck today!
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oooops........hadnt refreshed my page, so i missed this feedback from you....i see you are on the opposite side of the Atlanta pick.
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07-20-09, 03:00 PM
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#26
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ha, that was advice for the whole board but beast you know what i am talking about! you know you miss this place i love it but the heat....wow it is killing me. i would sleep more in the day but pacific time is a killer. CK i have new respect getting up that early staying up that late. having games on the board @ 10:00am is a new one for me. also vegas is the land of halted construction projects right now too. also watch out on atlanta, hanson is no better than sanchez. the giants record on the road has been improving so they are not the automatic road loss they were earlier in the season.
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07-20-09, 03:20 PM
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#27
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idk if this changes much. but the marlin series price dropped to -130.
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07-20-09, 03:27 PM
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#28
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today I like:
NYM, CWS, CHC and BOS
GL guys
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07-20-09, 03:29 PM
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#29
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2 plays I love tonight: Minnesota Twins -1 1/2 +135 (Sorry ck) But I think they easily win this one.
Blackburn has been very consistent all year with an ERA 3.06 and a whip of 1.28. While Gonzalez has been consistent too all year......He's been consistently awful. With an ERA of 6.29 and a whip of 2.01.
As for there last 3 game there ERA/whip has been: Blackburn 2.86/1.31 and Gonzalez 5.52/1.90 Pretty consistent with how they have both pitched all year.
OVER in the Cincy/LAD OVER 9 -105 *Owings consistently gives up runs, and Schmidt hasn't pitched since last year. Plus both teams can hit too....This game has the makings for a lot of runs.
I'm also rolling with my Cubbies at Ev $. Both teams are hot so this should be an exciting game to watch.
Good luck everybody!
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07-20-09, 03:38 PM
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#30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cocknocker
How do you come back and be worth that much in your first game?
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Exactly what I was thinking but I was hoping for a better line on the Reds. I don't know if I'll get it though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by solobass
CK/The Kid I would recommend just skipping out on the reds game, too many unknowns take what is good up on the board. my model has dodgers but i had to use some career/opponent numbers for schmidt. the reds graded out very very low though for me and are not worth it in my opinion.
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Thanks for the advice, solo.  Like I said above, I was hoping for something better than a +140.
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07-20-09, 05:53 PM
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#31
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The lines for tomorrow ae out and I got some bad numbers
Astros-148 Now it's NO PLAY as I don't go above -135
Rangers+142 Yesh!
Wahoos-124 (Not too happy with this line, would have liked it in the -115 range)
Angels-1.5 NO LINE
So I am dropping the Astros play possibly. If they win by only one run or lose tonight then i will play them tomorrow at -1.5 (runline) If Cliff Lee is over -135 by tomorrow.... as much as I don't want to I'll be forced to take the Cleveland runline. Hopefully they will give him some run support in the event that it comes to that.
LDK I like the Angels matchup better tomorrow than today. Good luck!
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07-20-09, 05:57 PM
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#32
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SlicWilly3 is banned from the project thread. No one is allowed to tell me that you are wagering against my home team! You can bet the Twins, I just don't want to hear about it. it's not too late. The A's can win the west still with a push in the second half. The team was built to go around Eric Chavez. Without him on the field, they hae lost their heart and soul...
No more of this Twins talk
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07-20-09, 06:34 PM
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#33
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(3x) redsox -110
(3x) angels -120
(1x) braves -1.5/+110
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07-20-09, 06:34 PM
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#34
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brewers for the game
Mets for the game
yanks RL
Phillies RL
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07-20-09, 06:36 PM
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#35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maddogmadden86
brewers for the game
Mets for the game
yanks RL
Phillies RL
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remind me the week your going out to Vegas and ill set you up, shoot me a pm about it in August
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