07-08-09, 11:41 AM
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#1
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Betting Favorites - New Trial System
Ok, so here goes. I've been tracking a little system I developed that only bets on favorites. If you are a crumbdog millionaire than look elsewhere. This system is incredibly simple and I'll only say that it uses books' lines against themselves (so it is subject to when I look at the lines; generally I will do it around 9-11 am daily). Please note, right now, this is FOR TRACKING PURPOSES ONLY. If you choose to tail, that is your own freaking decision. You've been warned.
Over the last 3 days this system is 8-1 (and fairing very well over the last 3 weeks), so naturally, and particularly because its day 3 of most series, I expect it to perhaps not fare so well today.
What I have noticed so far, is that over the last 3 weeks, this system has hit clear sweeps 5 times, meaning that there is extreme parlay potential (sure it could be due to chance but whatever). I will track a clean picks system and parlay system. Again, do not tail (especially today). The key to tailing anyones picks is to wait for a large losing day and then hop on board. Need I remind you: Tracking purposes only.
JULY 8, 200
Rockies -172
Daimondbacks -158
Dodgers -137
Rays -153
Royals -129
Red Sox -166
Yankees -131
All to win 1 unit.
Parlay: Rockies, DBs, Dodgers, Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, Royals
Risking 1 unit
This is one of the largest cards to date. Some days there are no picks.
Last edited by Panekkkk; 07-08-09 at 11:40 PM.
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07-08-09, 11:45 AM
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#2
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I like all of those teams but I will only track you. I don't bet that many games. But hey if you win around 70-75%+ then why not. I will be watching.  BOL |
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07-08-09, 02:13 PM
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#3
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Interesting, but how exactly does it "use the books' lines against them"? I don't see how it works, so a little explanation would be nice.  |
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07-08-09, 04:20 PM
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#4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by woodman663
Interesting, but how exactly does it "use the books' lines against them"? I don't see how it works, so a little explanation would be nice. |
 Didn't want to give away too much just yet. I just wanna see how this does first.
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07-08-09, 04:52 PM
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#5
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I already had the Dodgers and am backing the Phils -145 as well. Good luck.
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07-08-09, 06:08 PM
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#6
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I bet favorties 90% of the time. The only way I take a dog is if I can't believe their a dog.
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07-08-09, 06:20 PM
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#7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Panekkkk
Ok, so here goes. I've been tracking a little system I developed that only bets on favorites. If you are a crumbdog millionaire than look elsewhere. This system is incredibly simple and I'll only say that it uses books' lines against themselves (so it is subject to when I look at the lines; generally I will do it around 9-11 am daily). Please note, right now, this is FOR TRACKING PURPOSES ONLY. If you choose to tail, that is your own freaking decision. You've been warned.
Over the last 3 days this system is 8-1 (and fairing very well over the last 3 weeks), so naturally, and particularly because its day 3 of most series, I expect it to perhaps not fare so well today.
What I have noticed so far, is that over the last 3 weeks, this system has hit clear sweeps 5 times, meaning that there is extreme parlay potential (sure it could be due to chance but whatever). I will track a clean picks system and parlay system. Again, do not tail (especially today). The key to tailing anyones picks is to wait for a large losing day and then hop on board. Need I remind you: Tracking purposes only.
JULY 8, 200
Rockies -172 
Daimondbacks -158
Dodgers -137 
Rays -153
Royals -129
Red Sox -166
Yankees -131
All to win 1 unit.
Parlay: Rockies, DBs, Dodgers, Rays, Royals, Red Sox, Yankees
Risking 1 unit
This is one of the largest cards to date. Some days there are no picks. |
STRAIGHT BETS
YTD: 5-2 +2.34 Units
PARLAYS
YTD: 0-1 -1.00 Units
Last edited by Panekkkk; 07-08-09 at 11:24 PM.
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07-08-09, 06:23 PM
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#8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CashMoney
I bet favorties 90% of the time. The only way I take a dog is if I can't believe their a dog.
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Very similar to my strategy, I also don't like betting road teams very often either.
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07-08-09, 06:34 PM
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#9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CashMoney
I bet favorties 90% of the time. The only way I take a dog is if I can't believe their a dog.
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In baseball, the lines are so sharp that it's very unlikely that a dog isn't actually a dog. It's whether they have what it takes to pull off the upset.
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07-08-09, 06:37 PM
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#10
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I'll bet on underdogs, even if I don't think they can win more than 50% of the time. It all comes down to the odds the books lay.
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07-08-09, 09:47 PM
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#11
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Very interesting system. Good luck with it.
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07-08-09, 10:03 PM
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#12
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Good luck, Reno will be watching!!
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07-08-09, 10:38 PM
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#13
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Ok guys, I'm dropping the best bets. After going back over results, most of the best bets have been road teams and I don't really like that. So KC will be only 1 unit. And yes, I am doing that retrospectively but this is for tracking purposes so I'm attempting to tweak the system.
Last edited by Panekkkk; 07-08-09 at 10:56 PM.
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07-08-09, 10:40 PM
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#14
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Damn ... that dodgers game cost me big. Had a parlay going with those first 3 winners plus I laid heavy on it. |
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07-08-09, 11:19 PM
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#15
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Well another winning night. I keep waiting for a big losing night but this continues going strong. I may start laying these bets myself soon but don't know quite when to hop onboard.
July 8th, 2009
STRAIGHT BETS
YTD: 5-2 +2.34 Units
PARLAYS
YTD: 0-1 -1.00 Units
Last edited by Panekkkk; 07-09-09 at 12:17 AM.
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07-09-09, 10:29 AM
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#16
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First day of posting went well with some clutch wins at the end of the night. This system is up around 20 units since starting but of course that is difficult to prove so I'll just keep on truckin'.
July 9th, 2009
Dodgers -148
Mariners -178 *** This system filters out anything -180 or above. Because this is subject to when I look at the lines, this play is generating a number of flags (opened at -180) especially considering the Rangers' offensive output the last few games. Unfortunately I don't have my full tracking sheet with me today so I can't double check other filters I've been working on but I'm leaning towards not including this play. UPDATE: I have decided to cancel this last play.
STRAIGHT BETS
YTD: 5-2 +2.34 Units
PARLAYS
YTD: 0-1 -1.00 Units
Last edited by Panekkkk; 07-09-09 at 08:09 PM.
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07-09-09, 10:30 AM
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#17
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I like Texas myself at that price. The system looks good. Positive units is all you can ask for. BOL  |
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07-09-09, 10:59 AM
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#18
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yeah I'm leaning towards ditching the Mariners pick, but I don't want to overthink this. A system is a system regardless of your gut. Wish I had my sheets.
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07-09-09, 11:04 AM
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#19
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that is what i am talking about buddy. you have seen my action in the other thread calling all games. how do you make money? pick winners! keep it up brother, money is money and winners are winners faves or dogs.
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07-09-09, 11:12 AM
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#20
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yeah it's funny to see the big divide on bettors who never lay past -130, and those who'll nail anything that walks as long as it looks pretty.
Last edited by Panekkkk; 07-09-09 at 12:45 PM.
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07-09-09, 08:20 PM
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#21
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still doing the bullpen conversation system?
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07-09-09, 09:44 PM
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#22
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Yep, no games have qualified in a while :P
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07-09-09, 10:20 PM
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#23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Panekkkk
First day of posting went well with some clutch wins at the end of the night. This system is up around 20 units since starting but of course that is difficult to prove so I'll just keep on truckin'.
July 9th, 2009
Dodgers -148
Mariners -178 *** This system filters out anything -180 or above. Because this is subject to when I look at the lines, this play is generating a number of flags (opened at -180) especially considering the Rangers' offensive output the last few games. Unfortunately I don't have my full tracking sheet with me today so I can't double check other filters I've been working on but I'm leaning towards not including this play. UPDATE: I have decided to cancel this last play. |
Another winner today. Still unsure about the Mariners play. Technically it qualifies, but some filters I have been working on may cancel this bet. Don't have the time to go through it in detail today so I'm just avoiding this play for now.
STRAIGHT BETS
YTD: 6-2 +3.34 Units
PARLAYS
YTD: 0-1 -1.00 Units
Last edited by Panekkkk; 07-10-09 at 12:19 AM.
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07-10-09, 10:37 AM
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#24
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Well Seattle pulled it out in the end. I'll go back and check my filters and see if this game really should have been excluded or not, but regardless, still up 3.34 units in 2 days.
July 10th, 2009
Phillies -159
Tigers -147
STRAIGHT BETS
YTD: 6-2 +3.34 Units
PARLAYS
YTD: 0-1 -1.00 Units
Last edited by Panekkkk; 07-10-09 at 10:45 AM.
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07-10-09, 03:01 PM
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#25
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Okay, so I've had a chance to go back over all the data and it's still too early to tell whether one of my filters is worth it or not (excluding games like the Seattle game last night only added about 1.3 units since June 20th). But for anyone following or wondering, since June 20th, this system is up 25 units. That's pretty freaking amazing and while it's still early, I can't imagine the trend reversing based on how this system works. In fact, finding which games to go heavy on could boost winnings considerably.
Of course, it's still a little early so all we can do is keep pushing.
I have seen enough of this system and am personally hopping on board myself. I don't really like today's games so much but whatever, the system has yet to fail me. Tail at your own risk.
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07-10-09, 03:08 PM
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#26
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I actually like both games myself I was leaning towards both of those winning. I dunno if I will play both or neither. This system looks good so far. BOL |
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07-10-09, 03:29 PM
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#27
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Nice DJ let's cash this!
Only thing I'm a little hesitant about is when this system first started, over the first 5 days or so, it dropped down to -2 units and then reeled off 15 straight wins. So i'm thinking it might be due for a little decline about now. I'm on for the ride now regardless but am betting small cuz I anticipate some bumps, after which I'll start going heavy.  |
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07-10-09, 03:40 PM
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#28
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I'm with ya on betting lite when trying something new. Let's make some money Panek!!!  |
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07-11-09, 09:06 AM
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#29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Panekkkk
Well Seattle pulled it out in the end. I'll go back and check my filters and see if this game really should have been excluded or not, but regardless, still up 3.34 units in 2 days.
July 10th, 2009
Phillies -159
Tigers -147 |
Another winning night. 8-2, 9-2 if we were to count the SEA game the other night.
Originally I was going to parlay any 3 plays and over, but I guess it makes sense to parlay 2 together as well. So yes, I am retrospectively changing this rule as well.
Had we parlayed Tigers X Phillies, 1 unit = 1.7 units
STRAIGHT BETS
YTD: 8-2 +5.34 Units
PARLAYS
YTD: 1-1 +0.70 Units
Last edited by Panekkkk; 07-11-09 at 11:28 AM.
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07-11-09, 09:48 AM
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#30
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Good Luck man and keep up the good work...
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07-11-09, 11:29 AM
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#31
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July 11, 2009
Cubs -172
Rays -175
Red Sox -166
3-way parlay: 1 unit to win 2.96
STRAIGHT BETS
YTD: 8-2 +5.34 Units
PARLAYS
YTD: 1-1 +0.70 Units
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07-11-09, 11:34 AM
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#32
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gl today.
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07-11-09, 11:44 AM
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#33
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Thx Bogart! Pretty high juice on these plays. It's funny cuz you look at some of these plays and you may feel hesitant about them but the lines are the way they are for a reason. STL can't hit lefties (Lilly), Bo Sox hitters dominate Meche despite his lifetime vs. Boston numbers, and Rays are simply on a tear right now. I'm not so confident about these picks and am hoping to go 2-1. Regardless, hope it cashes! |
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07-11-09, 11:58 AM
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#34
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I like all of these plays Panek. Let's cash this. |
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07-11-09, 12:03 PM
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#35
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BOL parlay play. heavy chalk
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