07-08-09, 06:55 AM
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#1
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Half bank roll play
Seriously considering having half my bankroll on the Rockies at -1.5 against the hapless Nationals @ +120. It looks like easy money. Is there anything I'm missing?
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07-08-09, 07:01 AM
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#2
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only thing i would add is NOT to lay the run and a hook. anytime i have ever stepped up my wagers i would never lay the extra wood, don't get greedy. think about it.
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07-08-09, 07:10 AM
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#3
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The Rockies have won the last 2 games by just one run. The Nats bullpen has been decent of recent. The Nats can even pull an upset today.
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07-08-09, 07:36 AM
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#4
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Paps...
This is a classic example of how people lose half their bankroll on a single play. The reason this bet pays +120 is because it's less likely to cash than not. If you are going to do something incredibly stupid like put half your bankroll on a baseball game in July, let it either be a very small bankroll or a very strong liklihood of winning.
If you insist on making this kind of mistake, at least lay the bet at -1 instead of -1.5. Just make a money line wager where the amount you bet plus the amount to win equals the total amount you want to wager (in this case 1/2 bankroll). Then place the amount to win from that money line wager on the run line bet. If the Rockies win by 1 you push because your money line payout is exactly the amount of your run line bet.
Good luck man.
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07-08-09, 07:43 AM
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#5
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...and here I was thinking it was an easy play!!!!!
will seriously consider your wagering strategy jello (bank is $2.5K at present)
thanks for your input guys
will continue to ponder...head, gut, facts and figures all support this as a blowout game in favour of the rockies...but I understand money management is the holy grail
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07-08-09, 07:58 AM
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#6
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like Wilforth said, Rockies won by 1 run on Monday and tuesday
1-0 on Monday scoring in the 1st inning and barely pulling it out yesterday winning 5-4 scoring winning run in bottom 8th
I think Rockies win today and hoping they win RL, but never an easy bet
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07-08-09, 09:24 AM
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#7
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Im laying today RL ! GL !  |
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07-08-09, 10:01 AM
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#8
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i like delarosa at home.
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07-08-09, 10:16 AM
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#9
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Detwiler is a liability, delarosa has come good is pitching solid ball and will go the distance, the Nats bullpen implodes on a regular basis, Nats win/loss ratio is deplorable, Nats don't know how to win and always find a way to lose, i see a high scoring game with the bats to dominate and the fact that the Nats have held the rockies to a one point win in the last two outings makes me think Colorado are ready to blow this wide open
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07-08-09, 10:18 AM
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#10
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listen to your heart, and write down If you are going to place 50 % of roll or not, I am with you today !
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07-08-09, 10:27 AM
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#11
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If you decide to do this, go with the moneyline and not -1.5.
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07-08-09, 10:44 AM
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#12
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In case this matters, I am on the Nats today.
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07-08-09, 11:03 AM
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#13
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The Nationals usually keep it close, I'd take ML or nothing. Or take the RL but don't put half your bankroll on it. Why?
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07-08-09, 11:05 AM
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#14
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I lost a good amount on rockies RL the last 2 days. I also thought it was easy money.  |
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07-08-09, 11:14 AM
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#15
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Nats may very well take this game. Look at their numbers from yesterday. They really worked Hammel, who should have faired much better against a hapless Nats offense. The Nats also recently acquired Nyjer Morgan. They now have a solidified lead-off hitter which will at the very least help them work some bases. Don't waste half of your bankroll. Not now, not ever.
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07-08-09, 11:21 AM
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#16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xxdjstriderxx
i like delarosa at home.
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DJ.... DLR is fvcking horrible at Coors.
I didn't even look at this matchup before I commented above. Pappy....I hate this play now. I didn't know DeLa Rosa was pitching.
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07-08-09, 11:27 AM
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#17
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delarosa was shit full stop at the start of the season but he's hit a purple patch throwing good ball in his last 4 outings so I'm looking for him to improve his reord at coors whereas Detwiler is a clown
this went from an almost certain play to a  |
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07-08-09, 11:36 AM
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#18
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At least bet the ML as insurance PAP. I lost the last 2 days being on Col RL with no ML insurance. I would rather break even than lose. I'm sure you feel the same.  |
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07-08-09, 11:41 AM
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#19
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the rl has firmed to +110 with the rl at -172 - think dj and jello are right - insurance bet at effectively -1 is probably the smart play here
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07-08-09, 11:41 AM
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#20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PAPSMEAR
this went from an almost certain play to a
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Good. It's not a strong enough play to risk half your roll on. I'm glad you've come to the same conclusion.
If you wanna put half your roll on someone today, make it someone consistent at least. Look at Grienke for -125. I'm all over that.
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07-08-09, 11:46 AM
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#21
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i'm convinced...thanks for making me look at the other side of the coin
decided to wager a 10th of the bank with insurance in play
no hard feelings if the rockies smack the nats as I think they will
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07-08-09, 11:55 AM
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#22
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Good decision Paps. Good luck and I hope the Rockies do smack 'em around for you. It would still be a nice hit, and I won't feel bad about talking you out of an ill advised wager amount.
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07-08-09, 12:02 PM
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#23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PAPSMEAR
Seriously considering having half my bankroll on the Rockies at -1.5 against the hapless Nationals @ +120. It looks like easy money. Is there anything I'm missing?
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Im not sure how much 1/2 of your roll is in terms of $$ but I'd be carefully investing 1/2 your roll on 1 play.
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07-08-09, 12:09 PM
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#24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jellobiafra
DJ.... DLR is fvcking horrible at Coors.
I didn't even look at this matchup before I commented above. Pappy....I hate this play now. I didn't know DeLa Rosa was pitching.
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Rockies are 2-6 in De La Rosas last 8 home starts.
Rockies are 2-5 in De La Rosas last 7 starts as a home favorite.
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07-08-09, 12:13 PM
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#25
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tx Monster I was aware of that but I like the way de la rosa has pitched his last 4 games as against the nats starter who is legless
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07-08-09, 12:19 PM
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#26
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Colorado at home is just 20-17, versus 24-22 away (no real advantage it seems). Also they are 12-14 against lefties versus 32-25 against righties. Now those statistics aren't everything, but enough to keep me away from this one personally. BOL.
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07-08-09, 12:44 PM
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#27
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dont be a bitch just do it.
lol jk
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07-08-09, 01:18 PM
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#28
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Hey people, Nats win today.Allthe people that are playing the Rockies youre losing today...
I have strong information Nats win Today
De la Rosa will come very very bad and Detwiler will pitch until the 7th Believe it or not Today Nats win..
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07-08-09, 01:25 PM
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#29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fowler
Hey people, Nats win today.Allthe people that are playing the Rockies youre losing today...
I have strong information Nats win Today
De la Rosa will come very very bad and Detwiler will pitch until the 7th Believe it or not Today Nats win..
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Talking to your pet parrot is not strong information
It never ceases to amaze me that people blurt on about having strong information...as soon as I hear that I smell bullshit from a very big bull
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07-08-09, 01:38 PM
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#30
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hmm, maybe he is right :P
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07-08-09, 01:47 PM
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#31
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Gotta give the Nats 1 out of 3 in every series IMO. This should be the one.
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125pts
SBR POKER TOURNEY7th Place 2/7/2012
145pts
SBR POKER TOURNEY5th Place 2/6/2012
145pts
SBR POKER TOURNEY5th Place 1/30/2012
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07-08-09, 04:33 PM
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#32
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should play this one man  so far very good looking |
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07-08-09, 05:27 PM
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#33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PAPSMEAR
no hard feelings if the rockies smack the nats as I think they will
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Gonna hold you to this Paps. 
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07-08-09, 05:39 PM
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#34
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Damn it!!! I lost the last 2 days on COL RL. Of course I didn't bet it. Bastards are going to cover today. |
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07-08-09, 08:55 PM
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#35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jellobiafra
Gonna hold you to this Paps. |
No probs Jello and to all the other posters that talked me out of my big play - a wins a win and it is always helpful to be reminded of some money management skills. Let's face it I didn't have to listen. It was just one of those plays where everything pointed to a 5-6 run beat up. It's all good
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