05-13-09, 11:44 PM
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#1
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Mr. Crumbs Leans for Thursday 5/14/09
Quite a slate of games on tap today. I will start with my favorite. The Giants are undeniably hot and the Mets were cooled off by the Braves. With Delgado out of the lineup some of their energy is gone, The Giants are on a tear right now and I will ride the hot team versus the team that is cooling off.
Giants+120
Giants-1.5 +240 RRL Crumbs Play-O-The-Day
Seattle-1.5 +155 RRL Felix should be favored anyway
Marlins+100 Johnson brings home the bacon
Marlins-1.5 +165 RRL I know that they will win one of these
Also parlaying the 3 teams for a hunnid on the moneyline for the games only
Giants+120
Marlins+100
Seattle-110
A hunnid to win $7 and some change
Added Plays
Wahoos/Rays over 9
Mets/Giants under 9
Last edited by cocknocker; 05-14-09 at 05:25 PM.
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05-13-09, 11:45 PM
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#2
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Im on Fish and Philly, Mr Crumb.....  |
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05-13-09, 11:54 PM
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#3
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thur-
great pitching matchup in citizens bank, and i'll look to back the phillies ace off his teams loss. hamels has been slowly rounding into form, and in his last 3 starts has an era/whip of 2.65/1.10 and a career vs the dodgers of 2.25/1.00. the phillies are 3-1 vs LA in hamels starts. billingsley has struggled vs the phillie bats with a career 7.04/2.08
phillies (ML - 3x)
mets (ML - 3x) *Autobet* - with maine having a whip of 1.00 in his last 3, and sanchez having a whip of 2.02
under tigers (2x) *Autobet* - both verlander and baker have sub 1.00 whips in their last 3
cc sabbathia was sitting on a big performance and he delievered in his last outing. hes the type of guy (like many aces) to go on runs and dominate. i wanna be on this train for at least 2x a pop.
yankees (ML - 2x)
magic -6.5 (3x) *we all know the drill in game 7
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05-14-09, 12:01 AM
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#4
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I got FLA, DET and NYY (-1)
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05-14-09, 12:21 AM
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#5
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mets -136
marlins +107
red sox +117
detroit -105
for the early games tomorrow!
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05-14-09, 01:10 AM
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#6
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Off topic but do you suppose Magic moneyline would be a good bet tomorrow? I feel the need to sprinkle some love on that to get out of my slump.
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05-14-09, 01:15 AM
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#7
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Might wanna add Detroit -1.5 (+150) to the card...Verlander and Baker faced off last year with a 6-4 Detroit win, and something tells me that Verlander won't let his boys get swept by their division rivals. Expect hot Detroit bats tomorrow and a big win.
I like Seattle to stop the sweep as well, and that Marlins pick looks great to be too.
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05-14-09, 01:15 AM
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#8
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Just played:
Detroit 112 to win 100
Houston 117 to win 100
Thinking about....Early leans for tomo's early games:
Milw/Flor UNDER (1st 5 innings)
LA/Philly UNDER (1st 5 innings)
Cubs
Minn/Det UNDER (1st 5 innings)
Seattle (1st 5 innings)
Tex/Seattle UNDER (1st 5 innings)
But it's after 1am on the East Coast, and my gf wants me to come to bed..... I need to narrow these down to the 3 or so strongest plays in the a.m..... Will catch up with you guys in the morning.
Goodnight 
What's everyone thinking for tomo's NBA game? Orlando?? 7's a lot of pts though...hmmm But no matter which way I go I'm going to buy a pt and a half to either -5 1/2 or +8 1/2 
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05-14-09, 01:17 AM
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#9
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I'd feel more comfortable with the 8.5....but my NBA is quite hit and miss, so YMMV.
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05-14-09, 01:20 AM
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#10
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This is a baseball thread gentlemen.
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05-14-09, 02:30 AM
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#11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cocknocker
This is a baseball thread gentlemen.
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I don't know where to post to get your opinion in the NBA section so that's why I thought I'd high-jack your thread, for one post 
Anyway, on topic for today/tonight:
Riding the Jays, with their high percent win rate after coming off of a loss.
Jays +126
Dodgers +113
Red Sox +122
SD Padres +163
All 1unit plays 
(Pucks: 2u Detroit ML, 1u Detroit -1.5; reasoning? Detroit and losing do not go together)
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05-14-09, 03:18 AM
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#12
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fish should have won today...they get them tomorrow for sure
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05-14-09, 03:32 AM
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#13
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The Marlins are due big time. I'll take them today with you.
Also the Giants got beat by the Nat's and I think today they will want to make up for it. The pitching matchup looks kind of balanced though don't you think?
BOL!
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05-14-09, 07:22 AM
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#14
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What up!
Booked:
Seattle -110
Baltimore +115
Cubs -1.5 +115
GL
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05-14-09, 08:43 AM
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#15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tbill11
Might wanna add Detroit -1.5 (+150) to the card...Verlander and Baker faced off last year with a 6-4 Detroit win, and something tells me that Verlander won't let his boys get swept by their division rivals. Expect hot Detroit bats tomorrow and a big win.
I like Seattle to stop the sweep as well, and that Marlins pick looks great to be too.
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CK,
Whats your take on Verlander here...he struggled for quite awhile....he may be due for an extended run.
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05-14-09, 10:13 AM
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#16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by melincrea
I don't know where to post to get your opinion in the NBA section so that's why I thought I'd high-jack your thread, for one post
Anyway, on topic for today/tonight:
Riding the Jays, with their high percent win rate after coming off of a loss.
Jays +126
Dodgers +113
Red Sox +122
SD Padres +163
All 1unit plays
(Pucks: 2u Detroit ML, 1u Detroit -1.5; reasoning? Detroit and losing do not go together) |
You can go to me and wang's think tank to find out what I am playing in NBA today. I haven't made up my mind yet as to which side I'm gonna take or if I am gonna take the total. I already have Boston for the series price, so it looks like I may lean a little more towards the total today so as to not mix good money for bad
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05-14-09, 10:39 AM
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#17
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Im on the Marlins today too, with everyone else apparently bol everyone. |
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05-14-09, 10:42 AM
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#18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by repski
CK,
Whats your take on Verlander here...he struggled for quite awhile....he may be due for an extended run.
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verlander has finally tweaked his mechanics, and is a buzzsaw right now. finally back to the 100 mph velocity. remember though, tigers are on their backup catcher right now. has been working out ok so far but something to keep in mind. both bullpens are spent and the team that gets the most out of their starter wins this game.
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05-14-09, 10:43 AM
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#19
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oh and repski another solid avatar you are the man!
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05-14-09, 10:50 AM
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#20
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Another very solid play is the UNDER in the Grand Salami (Total runs scored for the day) I like a lot of unders today, and not playing any overs. UNDER 112 1/2 Total runs today.
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05-14-09, 11:18 AM
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#21
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Love the HOUSTON ASTROS -1 1/2 +140
Astros-Wandy Rodriguez last 3 starts: 1.80 ERA and a 1.05 Whip.
Rockies-Jason Hammel last 3 starts: 6.75 ERA and 2.02 Whip.
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05-14-09, 11:27 AM
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#22
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Things come in threes in baseball in my opinion. If a team has lost three or more in a row, and has a record .500 or above then it's a good idea to back them. There's three outs. Three game series, sometimes four, three strikes, and so on. So I want three units, sometimes four when I take a dog. Or at least as close to it as I can get.
And now for a tutorial on playing the RRL and the game moneyline when taking the underdog. I will use a basis of $100 which is for all intents and purposes the easiest way to explain it. I will use the Giants game today as an example
Giants+110
Giants-1.5 +240 RRL
If you standard wager amount is $100 per game or bet, in this circumstance you want to make two bets not to exceed $200.00. So to do it you would split up the bet this way to maximize your potential for winnings and use only a 4th of your money on the harder risk with a unit return.
Giants+110 for $150.00 to win $165.00
Giants-1.5 for $50.0 to win $120
It is not sound to wager the RRL for the exact same amount that you wagered the game moneyline for. It will cut into your profits greatly if you win by one run. You still stand to lose 2 units if you lose both but you also stand to win almost three units 2.85, or at the least 1.15 units if you win but not by 2.
If you are taking the RRL and are not interested in the game moneyline then I suggest to shorten your bet and play the $100 to win $240, and stand to lose only one unit or to gain 2.4 units. This is my favorite play because you risk only one unit but can win sometimes as much as 3 units. I did this with Seattle today. I absolutely LOVE RRL plays. What stinkin' moneyline!
Whatever....back to your normal programming already in progress
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05-14-09, 11:32 AM
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#23
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With that said, I think the Jays and Jays -1.5 is the right call tonight. You should look into it CK! It would be nice to have your opinion on this one too
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05-14-09, 11:35 AM
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#24
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Houston vs Colorado: Wandy Rodriguez has been consistently strong this season, allowing less than 2 runs in 5 of his 7 starts. He is 3-2 with an ERA of 1.80 and a whip of 1.04. He pitched 8 scoreless innings during his last start vs SD. He is opposing Jason Hammel who is 0-1 with an ERA of 5.40 and a whip of 1.80. His last outing lasted 4 innings and he allowed 6 er's. Going with the better pitcher at a good rate.
Pick: houston (-108) 1 unit
2-0 this week (+3 units)
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05-14-09, 11:53 AM
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#25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by melincrea
With that said, I think the Jays and Jays -1.5 is the right call tonight. You should look into it CK! It would be nice to have your opinion on this one too
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Jays+1.5 -135 on that one.
The Yanks are sputtering, like a carb that is new and needs a little tinkering. But they are showing signs of waking up and can't continue to be autofaded too much longer. CC should win this game, but I think it will be because of run production. A-Rod's presence in the lineup is making guys get better pitches to hit as pitchers are trying to avoid throwing 3-1 grapefruits down Broadway to him. CC however is overpriced in this matchup. The truth is there is never going to be good value when taking him unless you take the runline.
The best value on this game in my opinion if you are taking the Jays is the Jays+1.5 -135. Every bit of insurance helps and you are getting a hot team at home staked to a 2 run lead against an over valued pitcher. -135 is about as far as i will go with taking a favorite. But this is a good number to take the insured dog at too.
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05-14-09, 11:55 AM
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#26
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CK...tailing your FLA, SEA.
I'm going to continue to ride Verlander to the bank.
I also did a ML parlay on those 3.
Best of luck all!
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05-14-09, 12:00 PM
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#27
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Agreed on Houston here. Wandy is the man for the job today. |
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05-14-09, 12:43 PM
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#28
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Gl today.. you guys have hit a few rough patches
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05-14-09, 12:57 PM
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#29
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took FLA and parlayed Det and Sea. GL!
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05-14-09, 01:03 PM
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#30
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guys Marlins team total over 3.5 -125 is a real dynamite play...
Bush is 1-2 with a 6.88 ERA in three career starts against Florida.
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05-14-09, 02:45 PM
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#31
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Didn't make it on the early games:
Tor +1.5 -130
Kc RL
Sf RRL
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05-14-09, 02:49 PM
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#32
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Verlander 11 K's thru 5 IP....he's back..come on Tigre's
lotta coin on this sucker.
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05-14-09, 02:50 PM
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#33
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I wonder why the Marlins pulled Johnson after the 4th.. can't help but feel that Badenhop is going to get owned.  |
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05-14-09, 03:12 PM
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#34
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anybody on the angels or sox
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05-14-09, 03:32 PM
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#35
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I hate DET BULLPEN...I HATE YOU...**** YOU
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