Braves -1 +110 risk 2
Braves 1st 5 pk -133 risk 1.33
Mainly a play on Hudson and a very good Braves team I expect to start turning things around here after a poor showing in interleague ball. Recent form certainly favors Arizona who are 12-5 in their last 17 ,while the Braves are 3-9 in their last 13 games and just 1-6 in their last 7 at home. But you are getting a great number here on Tim Hudson. One of my favorite pitchers to wager on, the 36 year old hurler has been battling ankle problems but has still been winning games. 2-1 in his last 3 starts with a 2.25 ERA and 5-3 with whip numbers around 1.22 for the season. He didnt look fantastic in his last start against the Yankee and actually was lucky to get the win but has great numbers against the Dback hitters.
T.Hudson is 6-0 lifetime against Arizona with a 1.36 ERA and even though he Braves havent looked good lately , I dont put alot into alot of these interleague numbers. The Braves have dominated the dbacks in their last 5 and D.Hudson is going the Dbacks and he has been getting absolutely shelled in his last few starts, putting up an ERA over 11. You shouldnt be fooled by that 3-1 record he has posted, he has been giving up a ton of hits in most every game he has started and is posting a season ERA of over 6 and his WHIP numbers are 1.53. Daniel Hudson is a tough one to read, had a great year last year and the year before ,but he is certainly erratic at times.
I am going with the 36 year old T.Hudson here and one of the best competitors out there, certainly one of the more profitable pitchers to wager on in baseball.
St Louis -1 +104 risk 1
St Louis 1st 5 pk -123 risk 2.46
The Marlins are a mess (3-16 in their last 19) and Zambrano is coming off some of the worst outings of his career against the Rays. Zambrano has struggled with command over his last 3 but he had a little better outing against Boston in his last start. I watched that game and I didnt think he looked that sharp, he really seems to be aiming his pitches and getting frustrated when he falls behind hitters. He now has 13 walks in his last 3 games and has given up 42 walks in just 14 games this year.
The Cardinals have have pretty much owned Miami and the Marlins really havent been impressive in their new ballpark (2-11 in their last 13 at home). St louis is 5-1 in their last 6 and are coming in here with one of the hottest pitchers in baseball on the mound.
If you keep stats and trends on pitchers through the years or have just followed Lohses career, you probably are waiting for Lohse to start fading or at least regressing noticeably this time of the year but I am not seeing it yet and will continue to wager on him and his phenomenal year. Bellino is behind the plate and he has a pretty liberal strike zone , 11 of his 15 games have gone under the total, so that may help Zambrano with the walks but there are too many question marks with the Marlins right now to back them with any confidence.