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  1. 02-09-12 09:30 PM #1
    Semper Fidelis
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    Default Need Help Backtesting Underdog System!

    Hello guys, looking forward to baseball season as I am? I need some help backtesting an underdog system. What websites offer stats for the past several years? I need help trying to find the closing lines, win/loss streaks for teams over the years, as well as a list for the ranking of pitchers every day throughout the season as far as ERA goes. Are there any sites than have this kind of info? I don't know if you have heard of Frank Belanger, but I bought his secret system ebook several years ago, and it contains some really good systems. There is an underdog system he explains that uses just basic information that you find every day. I've used it a little bit over the years, with moderate success, but I've never tested it for the entire season. Of course you guys know the beauty of underdogs is that even if you only hit 50% of them, over the course of the entire season you will end up ahead. This system allows you to pick and choose only the dogs that have a higher probability of winning. Maybe you have heard of him or this system before. I just want to see if this is a profitable venture, and if so I will definitely be glad to share with everyone! Also, maybe some of you have already developed a system using dogs that is profitable? Any help would be greatly appreciated!
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  2. 02-10-12 01:16 PM #2
    OMGRandyJackson
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    www.sbrodds.com for past open/close lines.
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  3. 02-10-12 04:54 PM #3
    EXhoosier10
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    Lines I'm sure someone has in a spreadsheet somewhere. You might get lucky with someone giving them to you, but it's also possible to collect on your own, albeit not the easiest thing in the world.

    You can pull in a list of games each day/month (or by team) and sort by team and then decipher winning and losing streaks on your own in Excel. Probably faster than someone will give you that data. I've done it before and it wasn't terribly difficult.

    ERA rankings by day are probably going to be impossible to come across unless someone has been collecting that on their own.
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  4. 02-11-12 02:24 PM #4
    OMGRandyJackson
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    Quote Originally Posted by EXhoosier10 View Post
    ERA rankings by day are probably going to be impossible to come across unless someone has been collecting that on their own.
    Or if he wants to read all box scores every day and do the math himself lol
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  5. 02-12-12 12:07 PM #5
    CappinTerp
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    Good luck to you.! I have found out from past capping that sometimes too much info./data is not a helpfull thing.
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  6. 02-13-12 10:35 AM #6
    Semper Fidelis
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    Thanks for the input guys! Like you said, I've found it pretty easy to find past odds and streaks, but have had no luck finding the daily ERA rankings. ESPN has where you can look up the daily rankings, but they don't allow you to change the date like you can for the standings to find out the streaks. I was hoping someone might have this knowledge, or would know a website that might have these statistics. If I can't find this information I might just have to paper test it this season and see how it goes. The system seems very good, and I've made profit using it for small periods of time, but the only way to see its true worth is by seeing the season results. This system allows you to weed out and find only the dogs that have a 50 to 60% chance of hitting. Because of this I believe it'll prove profitable, because the more dogs you bet and win over the length of the season, the higher your profits, even if it is only 50 to 60%.

    Do any of you all know of or use a good underdog system? We all know that underdogs are the way to make real profit in baseball! Very interested to see what you guys think and use.
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  7. 02-13-12 01:07 PM #7
    OMGRandyJackson
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    What exactly do you mean daily ERA rankings?
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  8. 02-14-12 10:34 AM #8
    Semper Fidelis
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    I mean a list of the top pitchers by ERA. It changes daily as they each pitch their games. Here's a link to an example of what I'm talking about:

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitchin...1/seasontype/2

    It lists the best pitchers in the league, and you can sort it by other stats. All I need though is the ERA stat, but as you can see, there isn't a way to change the date to see them every day. The system I utilize doesn't start until the end of April, when most pitchers have had a chance to at least pitch a few games and the list is more accurate. Like some others have said, I'm probably out of luck, unless there has been someone that has kept an updated list of these rankings and how they changed throughout the season. I have a good feeling that it works over the length of the entire season, just based on the short term success. Might just have to paper test this season and implement it next season if it proves profitable.
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  9. 02-14-12 12:44 PM #9
    OMGRandyJackson
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    Is this what you are looking for?

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...cl01&t=p&year=

    Look at the first ERA column. So on Mar 31, Kershaw had a 0.00 era, on Apr 5 it jumped to 2.08 then on Apr 11 it dropped to 1.37 etc. etc.

    If this is what you need just search each player then go to game logs and chose the season you want.
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  10. 02-17-12 02:14 PM #10
    Semper Fidelis
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    That definitely helps! I suppose I could use this and check out the starting pitchers for every day and make my own top 25 list for each day. It'll take forever, but once I have this list for every day I will be able to plug in the system plays and see how it does. Maybe I could contact ESPN and see if they have or know where I could go to get these daily listings throughout the season.
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  11. 02-17-12 04:13 PM #11
    OMGRandyJackson
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    Quote Originally Posted by Semper Fidelis View Post
    That definitely helps! I suppose I could use this and check out the starting pitchers for every day and make my own top 25 list for each day. It'll take forever, but once I have this list for every day I will be able to plug in the system plays and see how it does. Maybe I could contact ESPN and see if they have or know where I could go to get these daily listings throughout the season.
    What exactly are you after if that was not exactly it man?

    Take me through an example if you have to with made up ERAs
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  12. 02-17-12 04:30 PM #12
    Semper Fidelis
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    Sorry I've been so confusing bud! Basically, I need a list of the top 20-25 pitchers by ERA. For example, say on May 15th Kershaw is number 1 at the top of the list with an ERA of 1.82, followed by Justin Verlander at 2.08, etc all the way down to Tim Hudson at number 25 with a 3.33 ERA:

    1. Kershaw 1.82
    2. Verlander 2.08
    .
    .
    .
    .
    25. Hudson 3.03

    Obviously, this changes every day--say Kershaw pitches and doesn't have a good game, so the next day he could drop to number 15 or something. This list changes daily as the pitchers pitch--the next day Verlander could be at the top of the list if he pitched well enough to have the lowest ERA. This is an important criteria of the system I utilize, so I have to have the accurate rankings of all the starting pitchers every day. Using the link you gave me, I suppose I could look up every starting pitcher and make my own list, and then update it for every day the pitchers pitch their games, but this would take forever. The more I look at it, the more it seems I'll have to just papertest it and see how it goes. Does this make any sense at all? Sorry I've been kind of vague and confusing! Let me know if this helps, or if you have any more questions.
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  13. 02-17-12 06:40 PM #13
    Redscot
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    If the system is relying heavily on ERA I think you got problems long term. ERA is simply not that good of an evaluator or especially predictor of expected results. I would suggest hitting up fangraphs for a start and checking out fip, xfip, tera, siera and other advanced stats that will lead you in the right direction imo. GL .


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  14. 02-18-12 04:20 PM #14
    OMGRandyJackson
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    Quote Originally Posted by Semper Fidelis View Post
    Sorry I've been so confusing bud! Basically, I need a list of the top 20-25 pitchers by ERA. For example, say on May 15th Kershaw is number 1 at the top of the list with an ERA of 1.82, followed by Justin Verlander at 2.08, etc all the way down to Tim Hudson at number 25 with a 3.33 ERA:

    1. Kershaw 1.82
    2. Verlander 2.08
    .
    .
    .
    .
    25. Hudson 3.03

    Obviously, this changes every day--say Kershaw pitches and doesn't have a good game, so the next day he could drop to number 15 or something. This list changes daily as the pitchers pitch--the next day Verlander could be at the top of the list if he pitched well enough to have the lowest ERA. This is an important criteria of the system I utilize, so I have to have the accurate rankings of all the starting pitchers every day. Using the link you gave me, I suppose I could look up every starting pitcher and make my own list, and then update it for every day the pitchers pitch their games, but this would take forever. The more I look at it, the more it seems I'll have to just papertest it and see how it goes. Does this make any sense at all? Sorry I've been kind of vague and confusing! Let me know if this helps, or if you have any more questions.
    Ok thats what I thought u were after. Unfortunately your going to probably have to do this work yourself lol.
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  15. 02-22-12 02:41 PM #15
    Semper Fidelis
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    Quote Originally Posted by Redscot View Post
    If the system is relying heavily on ERA I think you got problems long term. ERA is simply not that good of an evaluator or especially predictor of expected results. I would suggest hitting up fangraphs for a start and checking out fip, xfip, tera, siera and other advanced stats that will lead you in the right direction imo. GL .


    That definitely helped, that site has the info I need, but like ESPN you can only view the pitcher list by month and not day by day throughout the season. The system doesn't rely heavily on ERA, just the top pitchers in the league, as that is one of the criteria to evaluate for using the system. Thanks for your help! I still haven't decided yet whether or not I want to put the time into looking up all the pitchers and making a new list for every day of the season! lol
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  16. 03-01-12 01:47 PM #16
    OMGRandyJackson
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    If you start right at the beginning of the season, it wont be as hard as trying to go back and collect the data from previous seasons.
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