[XvMMvX]

Ive been lurking around here for a while and thought i would seek help from you guys. I am trying to develope a stradegy for handicapping my MLB games instead of making a few spot plays each day. Right now all i do is browse the forums and look at the guys on here that I trust and then make a few spot plays off of that.

First off I would like to state that my ideas below ARE NOT A SYSTEM. This is a way for me to begin to handicap the days games.

Picking Sides:

This first thing I am starting to do is look at the top 10 road and top 10 home teams, these are the only teams i will look at for the day. I then move to pitching matchups and batting and decide if the team is a play or not. I may increase or decrease the size of the play depending on the variables or I could pass on the game as well (For example MIL is a top 10 home team and they are hosting the CLE, however Sabathia is pitching so this would make it a no play). Is this a good handicaping method or am I going to be bringing to much chalk. I feeling that by sticking with these teams I will be better off in the long run.

I also use the same system with pitch but I only use the top 5 and they must be playing a weak hitting team(bottom half).

Totals:

This is quite simple I look for 2 weak pitching teams facing off or two strong pitching teams facing off. This is not as open and shut as it sounds but this is were i start.

Any suggestions would be helpful thanks in advance.

[bigboydan]

first off, let me welcome you to the sbrforum

betting on top notch type pitchers all the time is not always a good idea.

here's a few basic things i do when capping game.

schedule breakdown is key IMO though. you can find some really weak match-ups that way. once you spot a potential gem. then i would just go check out the trends, pitching match-ups, road records/home records, batting avg., ect,ect.

[Willie Bee]

Ride streaks.

And welcome to SBR

[XvMMvX]

BigboyDan,

What about my idea of useing the top ten road and home warriors? Should i also look for good home dogs?

[bigboydan]

that all should be included in the ect,ect,ect.

[EBone]

I wish I could bestow a great pearl of wisdom to this thread but I can't because I'm no better than the average gambler.

I will offer one suggestion that you can take or toss in the garbage.

I think betting heavy favorites is an absolute no-no in my opinion. I just think betting favorites -150 or above is not a good thing. There is just too much variance in baseball to think that a game has a 60% chance or better of winning. Having said that, I have bet -150 favs and better in the past and will probably do so in the future. But, as a general rule, I really try to stay away from them. Something to think about I suppose.



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